BasicsWho: Michigan (14-16, 7-11) vs. Iowa (10-21, 4-14) |
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Michigan tips off the Big Ten Tournament with a 2:30 matinee versus Iowa (again). Michigan and Iowa have become quite familiar with each other of late. This will be the 9th time that these two programs have faced off in the last three years. Michigan is 5-2 in the last seven contests, going 2-1 each year.
The old adage “it’s tough to beat a team three times” certainly comes into play here. Michigan swept the season series but judging by the game in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes seem to have figured out the Michigan defense. Iowa scored 1.18 points per possession in that game, the third worst defensive performance of Michigan’s season.
Aaron Fuller was simply dominant in that contest. Fuller scored 30 points on 11 of 13 shooting and also pulled down 13 rebounds. Michigan needs to figure out a way to slow down the versatile power forward or they could be looking at a long day. If they do manage to stop Fuller, they should have a great shot to win the game as Iowa’s options beyond Fuller are limited.
The one other player to watch out for is Matt Gatens. Gatens also played very well in the last match-up (21 points on 8 of 13 (3-6 3pt) shooting with 8 rebounds, and four assists) and Michigan will have to do work to slow him down. Gatens three point shooting is down from last year (34% from 40%) but he is still dangerous if he gets going. He also is one of the few Iowa players that has the ability to take the ball to the rack if you over play him.
For Michigan, it’s all about DeShawn Sims. Over the last two years (6 games), Sims averages 21 points and 7 rebounds while shooting 50% from the field. His performances have been highlighted by a game tying three in Iowa City earlier this year and also his monster performance in the Big Ten Tournament last year in which he single handily punched Michigan’s NCAA tournament ticket. Sims will need to bring his A-game which we haven’t seen nearly as often as we did in January.
Iowa’s strengths and weaknesses as a team haven’t changed much since the last game. Their offense has really struggled, they have the second worst offense in the Big Ten at .94 points per possession in conference play. They even shoot the ball worse than Michigan with a shooting line (2pt/3pt/eFG) of 42.04/30.1/46.4. They turn the ball over on 22.3% of their possessions in conference play and only Indiana does a worse job holding onto the ball.
While their offense has been decidedly mediocre, Iowa’s defense hasn’t been any better. Iowa does do one thing well: defend the three point shot. Big Ten opponents shoot only 32.8% from three point range versus the Hawkeyes, second best in the conference. The Hawkeyes’ field goal defense is below average and they give up a ton of good looks from two point range. They don’t force many turnovers but they do manage to keep opponents off the free throw line.
Considering Iowa is one of only two teams that Michigan swept this year, the Wolverines are clearly capable of beating them. Anything can happen in a conference tournament game though and it will come down to whether Michigan executes. At this point no one knows what to expect from this team on any given night. This is most likely the final weekend in one of the most disappointing Michigan basketball seasons in quite some time. It’s a crapshoot how they react… They could go on a torrid winning streak like Baylor last year and come up just short. Or they could go out with barely a wimper and lose to Iowa.
I wouldn’t be surprised at any outcome but the stats do point toward Michigan. Pomeroy likes Michigan by 7 with an 82% chance at victory while Vegas is even more confident and likes Michigan by 8. Let’s hear your thoughts and predictions in the comments.
Michigan 61, Iowa 55. They have nothing to lose, everything to gain type feel. Play hard get a win. They lose it’s back to the books.
U of M 68, Iowa 53
big day for peedi tomorrow, he’s definitely due. Also no way Aaron fuller reproduces his 11/13 game as he’s one of their two viable scoring options but most of his were trash buckets, which can be prevented by a simple blockout. Go blue!!
Excuse me, big day for peedi today!
Heck knows, I’m becoming a masochist, but the optimistic juices are flowing again. Will work hard until 2:30 so that my Puritan behind can enjoy the game w. a clean conscience. Cheers, everybody.
Heading out of the office at 2. I figure since I’m on Spring Break and chose not to go to the likes of Florida, the least I deserve is to get out early and enjoy some basketball. Tomorrow’s a half day… Hope I didn’t jinx us.
Iowa seems to be much more turnover prone away from Iowa City so I think we’ll see the Iowa from the game at Crisler more than the Iowa we saw at Carver-Hawkeye. Also, Conseco Fieldhouse seems to bring out the worst in jumpshooters at the Big Ten Tournament.
UM wins. That is all.
Guessing a game similar to last year’s tourney game. Just feed it to Sims again and again and attempt to check Fuller and should be an easy W.
It’s only tough to beat a team three times if you don’t beat them the first two. Blue will win this one going away.
Let’s slow down on the “easy win” predictions. Have we not all witnessed what happens this year when do that?
This is by no means a guaranteed victory. I’m hoping Michigan comes prepared for an Iowa team that they know very well by now (Michigan has played Iowa more than any other big ten team in the last 3 years). Sims needs to play strong and have a big game if Michigan wants a fighting chance.
Also, Michigan needs a way to stop Aaron Fuller down low, hopefully a lineup featuring Gibson and Sims will be used sometimes.
All in all, I like Michigan’s chance, GO BLUE
Nothing is certain with this mich team. That being said, due to the fact that I hate myself, I like mich 67-61. Big three point help from stu and laval. Peedi shooting over 50%. Manny managing to get 20 points by sheer baller status. Let’s go blue.
Are the BTT tourney games always at conseco fieldhouse in indianapolis now? I thought they used to have the tourney in chicago as well?…
I like UM’s chances as long as they keep fuller in check.
UM 65
Iowa 51
UofM by 4. I’ve got a 6 pack by my side just in case. Maybe I can put the season out of my memory…
Ed hightower….ahhhhh!!
where is everybody?
good start to the game. shooting it well.
Well Michigan’s offense is clicking early. Sims and Harris are bringing it. Aaron Fuller is still a load but he can’t beat us by himself.
Difference in this game… Manny and Peedi’s haircuts?
If only the Big Ten was made up of just Iowa, Minnesota and us. Will anyone else besides Harris/Sims ever score?
If anyone has any links. I assumed I’d find the game at justin.tv. . . Embarq doesn’t provide espn360, unfortunately. Gonna have to get a tuner. . .
we just always play and shoot well against Iowa. especially at the BTT. I dont know why that is.
Aaron Fuller’s second foul with 9:54 to play. Tough break for Iowa. He can’t be in foul trouble for Hawkeyes.
Found it, at channelsurfing.net, in case anyone else is looking.
i dont understand how morris averaged so many points in high school. how he was the california player of the year… he just can’t shoot. nice defender and good passer but no offense whatsoever.
still shooting pretty well. and holding onto the ball.
well I dont think Morris played the toughest competition in the state. Plus in high school if you are 6’4 and a good athlete you can pretty much score at will at the basket. He also had some other good players on his team, so that probably helped create opportunities for him.
You don’t have to be able to shoot in high school when you are 4 or 5 inches taller and more athletic than most of the people you go up against.
Iowa’s move to the zone defense has really slowed down Michigan’s offense.
Cully is on fire.
harris… you did know there was 3 seconds left in the half? you wanted to dribble the ball then pass?
good start not a good end… still up by 8.
thank gosh Iowa sucks. Cause we did our usually routine of closing out a half with fantastic basketball.
Terrible ending to the 1st half
this is a game that iowa will claw back into even though they should be beyond buried right now……………………….lots of good tidbits about rod days and eric katenda on scout today
Bumfuzzled by that close to the half–you’d think this would be the last team in the world to grow complacent.
Geez. Michigan can’t buy a basket. That’s 14 of last 16 shots missed or something like that.
were playing the worst i ever seen
Michigan just can’t get anything going against the zone. Iowa went to it in the middle of the first half and Michigan hasn’t been able to score since.
is there a reason morris isnt playing?
Finally a couple shots go down. Even Laval hit a three.
other steve: I think because they are trying to get some kind of shooting burst. LLP hasn’t been shooting well but Morris had the ugliest shot of the season earlier. Morris basically isn’t a good match-up vs the zone.
i know finally. lets put this game away for good. i really like the gibson and 1
This just in! Cully Payne can shoot and has the hot hand. Might want to get a hand in his face boys.
Nice take to the hoop by LLP! I’d like to see more of that from him.
Manny!
11-0 run for Iowa. We just don’t really want to win I guess.
wow. 57-41 and now in like a matter of minutes is a 5 point game
lack of focus
It was ugly but Michigan beats Iowa 59-52. OSU tomorrow at noon.
Just home from work…just in time to see 3 Manny to’s…play like a leader. Is it bad that I almost feel more comfortable with the ball in Dom’s hands than Manny’s? Don’t get me wrong, I love what Manny brings to thet table, but he just makes poor decisions more than I’d like for an All-Big ten performer. Hey, they live to play again…beat the Suckeyes! Go Blue!!
Good job Blue. Just play your hardest tomorrow and stay focused.
Ugly win, but I’ll take it. Manny went on a 15 minute drought midway through the game, and Peedi pretty much disappeared down the stretch. Not good leadership by our two “leaders”.
I think tomorrow will be ugly, but I’ll watch anyway.
It was ugly, but wins are wins at this point. No way to predict how the team will respond come tomorrow, but I like having Beilein as coach in tourney settings. Get some good shooting and who knows what will happen.
The only thing that really bothered me today was the total lack of defensive rotations. Help defenders seemed to have their backs turned to the ball far too often.
Hey, I’ve seen uglier. Michigan definitely brought it to begin with, but then kind of limped through the second half. Let’s hope Michigan isn’t too tired for OSU tomorrow, they’re gonna need a HUGE game to beat Evan Turner and company.
Stu douglass: 40 minutes
Manny: 38 mintutes
Novak: 37 minutes
heavy legs for Tomorrrow. Was there not a time when he could have thrown Vogrich in for 5-10 minutes just to eat some time?
ryan considering that they barely hung on doing that, I dont think it would have been wise to try and save our legs for tomorrow.
Even if the right Michigan team shows up tomorrow, I’m afraid we do no better than keeping it close for 35 minutes. OSU has gotta be hungry for that 1 seed.
LLP showed there might be hope for him.
This teams has zero killer instinct.
I think Morris sat for a time because a careless pass was followed quicky by a silly foul.
Don’t think they used a lot of energy today, after the early push they coasted.
Didn’t it seem like the refs were trying to take it into overtime, like the commercials.
Hope the confidence is there tomorrow, all we can do is our best and you need confidence to do that.
I dont think anyone likes cully payne
Will everybody cool it with this “OSU in the hunt for a #1 seed” nonsense!? Teams ranked in the low 20s in the RPI with SEVEN losses don’t get #1 seeds. Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, and Syracuse. Even losing to Georgetown, even losing Arinze Onuaku. OSU is a #2, and they’re not next in line for a #1.
AG2 – They are in the 20s because of Turner’s injury. It’s ridiculous that RPI gets factored in because of a scenario exactly like this. But if they win the conference tourney, then they certainly have a shot at a 1 seed. And who is everybody?
I know there must be good reasons–and I know he’s not the Second Coming–but I have found myself wondering what might have been if Beilein had managed to work Zack Gibson further into the rotation this season. So many games where the point differential was 6 or under; so many games where Peedi carried all the load down low.
Good point on Gibson. Will be interesting to see how much Peedi and Gibson play together tomorrow… Hopefully it’s not a Steve Lavin-Evan Turner lovefest again on ESPN.
Dylan, looks like you can add 2011 Cheshire Academy PF/SF Eric Katenda to the next recruiting round-up. Gobluewolverine.com has a story on him. He’s 6’9″, so the quest for more height continues.