Draft roundup: Latest on Stauskas, Robinson and McGary

Dylan Burkhardt
on
Michigan 73, Tennessee 71-5

Nik Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary all made it clear that they weren’t ready to discuss their draft stock after Michigan lost to Kentucky on Sunday. But their decisions are coming soon and are the most important news bits expected over the next month. Here’s the latest on all three players’ decisions, draft stock, and when they need to make a decision. (Photo: Dustin Johnston)

Important Dates

The concept of ‘testing the waters’ has essentially been eliminated from the draft process. Prospects only have until April 15th, 2014 to remove their names from the NBA Draft and maintain NCAA eligibility – the NBA allowed June 16th date has no importance to the NCAA.

  • April 9, 2014: NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee Application Deadline
  • April 14, 2014: NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee Response Deadline
  • April 15, 2014: NCAA Early Entry Withdrawal Deadline
  • April 16, 2014: NCAA Late Signing Period Begins
  • April 27, 2014: NBA Draft Early Entry Eligibility Deadline
  • May 20, 2014: 2014 NBA Draft Lottery
  • June 16, 2014: NBA Draft Early Entry Withdrawal Deadline
  • June 26, 2014: 2014 NBA Draft

Nik Stauskas

Nik Stauskas wasn’t even on the NBA Draft radar last year, now he looks like a lock to go in the top 20. Chad Ford’s latest update is very positive:

Stauskas continues to show why NBA teams are so intrigued by him. He is an incredible shooter with a quick release and great range. He shot 12-for-30 from 3-point range in the tournament, not his finest hour. But no one questions his ability to shoot the basketball. He also shows significant handles for a player his size and can be a pretty explosive finisher around the basket. He should go late-lottery to mid-first round and is expected to declare for the draft.

Stauskas is listed as a prospect with ‘one foot out the door’ by Chad Ford, and it would be a surprise if he returned to school.

Projections:

Glenn Robinson III

Robinson is a more interesting case. He largely fell off of the NBA Draft hype-machine after a lackluster start to the season, but he played his best basketball in the last month. He got hot from three, he started playing more aggressively and he was a major reason that Michigan won 10 of its last 12 games.

His draft prospects don’t seem to have rebounded completely, but some feel they should have.

ESPN’s Chad Ford says that Robinson needs to show more:

Robinson III started the season as a potential lottery pick but has watched his stock fade while struggling to prove to scouts that he can hit enough perimeter shots to play the 3 in the NBA. He actually was 6-for-10 from 3-point range in the tournament and played some of the best basketball of his career, which has moved him back into the discussion as a late-first-round pick. Another year at Michigan, however, could move his stock up higher. Scouts are intrigued by him; they just want to see more skill development.

Will he stay or will he go? Robinson seems to be a true 50-50 case at this point. He seems to be right on the edge of the first round, but most mock drafts have him projected early in the second.

Projections:

Mitch McGary

Mitch McGary could have struck when the iron was hot last spring, but he decided to return to school to lead Michigan. He made his decision for all of the right reasons, but his sophomore year couldn’t have gone much worse as he played in only eight games and missed most of the season with a lower back injury.

McGary hasn’t played since December, but his rehab has gone well and he’s started running, etc. If McGary is healthy, would he opt to prove his abilities in draft workouts instead returning for another season? Many experts feel that would be the wrong decision.

EI: Without knowing how far along he is in his recovery, its tough to say what he could show for teams before the draft. McGary’s rise last year was based on a good final 6-8 weeks of the season, and he is still very much a player who has a lot to prove to teams. Regardless of his age, coming back for one more year will only help him as a player and give him a chance to secure a place higher in the draft.

MLive’s Brendan Quinn asked a draft scout, who reported that McGary would be ‘picked apart’:

For one NBA talent evaluator, McGary could be selected in the 2014 NBA draft “anywhere from late in the first round to late in the second,” but that projection hinges on a big, looping question mark.

“If he decides to go, which I don’t think he should, people are going to have to do an intense check of his medical background,” an NBA Eastern Conference scout told MLive on Tuesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

If he chooses to declare for the draft, McGary’s health will be “picked apart in this process” due to an injury classified only as a lower-back condition, according to the scout.

McGary turns 22 years old in June and that’s a critical factor. There are only two players 22 years old projected in the first round this year and they are seniors. McGary isn’t projected in the first round of any notable mock drafts right now.

Projections:

  • John

    I can’t help but feel that McGary is going to come back for another year. He is a player that legitimately could be a top 5 pick if he comes back healthy and plays a full season. If he goes to draft workouts rusty and out of playing condition that may actually hurt his draft stock. I just don’t see him rounding into shape in like a month and blowing pro scouts away. He is a unique case because of his age, but take out the factor, (and it really is not a big factor, Payne is the same age and will be drafted high) and it does not seem like much of a decision at all. Come on back Mitch, and bring along GR 3. You have unfinished business here.

    • kam

      mitch will not be a top 5 pick..

  • mistersuits

    At least I’ll have more NBA teams to root for and/or follow.

  • Jalen Rose

    When 12-for-30 from 3-point range (a 40% clip) is “not your finest hour”…you know you’re pretty good. I’m gonna really miss Stauskas if he leaves

    • lsahdjf

      Look over him while he’s out there in the NBA world, Jalen.

    • mikey_mac

      Not to mention, that includes two desperation 3s from the end of the UK game. 12-for-28 (43%) is more realistic.

  • JVS

    (a healthy) Mitch is the single most critical piece to a deep tournament run next year. Caris/Zak should be able to take up some of the wing deficiencies left by Glenn/Nik. No idea what we do if Horford/Max/Donnal are all we have at the bigs. Mitch – Zak – Caris – Walton – Horford if he wants to play 4 or Mitch – Zak – Caris – Kam/Donnal – Walton if he’s willing to play 5 would be top 5-10 when the season starts.

  • tgio24

    What is this teams ceiling next year if Stauskas is the only one to enter the draft? Is another final 4 possible if McGary and GROB both come back?!!

    • UMHoopsFan

      This will be a very good team regardless. Walton, Caris, Irvin, Chatman, Donnal, Horford, and Spike form a very good core, with perhaps Wilson, Doyle, or Bielfeldt stepping up. It’s hard to say without knowing exactly how they plan to use Donnal, but looking at the roster, McGary might make a bigger change in potential than GRIII. Next year is going to have a lot of points and a lot of wins. It will likely be even better if McGary and/or GRIII return. If they both come back, UM will be preseason top 5. If even one returns, likely top 10.

    • Ben Sheler

      Yes

  • caleb

    Stauskas leaving will likely hurt, as the loss of Trey Burke did as well. That said I am excited to see the development of Zak Irvin. If GR3 comes back and wants to play the 3, that relegates Irvin back to the bench.

    • kam

      our defense will be much better

  • Thanks for a great season Nik. Looking forward to seeing you next year in the league. Mitch has to stay… I can’t imagine it working out for him if he leaves. There’s really no difference between 22 and 23 in terms of the NBA for my money. As for Glenn… he should go through the process of being evaluated, but I don’t think he would be remotely effective in the league with his current skills. He should come back, work on his shot, work on his defense, and go after next season. Unless people who know more than I do assure him otherwise.

  • UMHoopsFan

    GRIII also shot well over his last few games in the regular season and B1G tournament. If he goes, he’ll likely be a first round pick, and almost assuredly will be on an NBA roster next year, so it’ll be hard to call it a real mistake. But clearly playing the way he did at times this year for a full year, potentiall with even more responsibility next year, could improve his stock. It seems like it’s more about what he wants to do than there being a right or wrong move.

  • 72blue

    So, does your list of dates mean that, by April 15, we will know who is going and who is (hopefully) staying? I have to admit that I am much less worried than I was last year. I now know that, whoever the team is, our coaches will come up with a plan that will have them ready to compete with anyone. Go Blue!

    • Ben Sheler

      Players have until April 27 to enter draft

      • Bigplaybray

        You have until 4/27 to enter, but you cannot withdraw after 4/15.

        http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Testing-the-NBA-Draft-Waters-in-2014-4412/

        So if any of these guys are saying they are just testing the waters, they have to make the call by 4/15 to pull out.

        • Jack Simms

          i thought that IF the draft propect did NOT hire an agent—then it was ok to withdraw as late as 4/27—–is this wrong?

          • Yes that’s incorrect. That’s the old rule which hasn’t been valid for the last two years.

      • mikey_mac

        This part is very confusing, and you are technically right, but if a player requests advice from the Undergraduate Advisory Committee, he has only until 4/15 to withdraw, or else he loses NCAA eligibility.
        I could see a scenario where Jabari Parker types don’t bother with the formal advice, since they should feel comfortably in the lottery, and thus can wait to declare until 4/27, but players like GR3 that are likely relying on that Committee advice will have to make their intentions clear on 4/15.

  • Mattski

    Speculating, of course, but I see GRIII moving upward in the first round through tryouts, much like Hardaway did last year. He’s been maligned by fans but his potential is enormous, and scouts will quickly be reminded of the fact. Much as I would like to see him remain, I’m going to bet that he goes, McGary stays, and we are a great deal of fun to watch again next year.

  • Kenny

    I agree with everyone that McGary should be back. The last thing that he wants to do is to rush is rehabilitation process for NBA workout.

    My feeling on GRIII is more complicated. I think that skill wise he is NBA ready, and his stock will certainly go up after working out with NBA teams and I would be surprised if he did not go in the first round. But mentally he is not there yet, coming back for another year would let him develop leadership, as THJr did, and better prepare him for NBA. That said, he has more access to NBA decision makers than vast majority of college players, and a lot of his decision will depend on which teams are interested in him and their plan to develop him.

    I also agree with others that GRIII’s departure will not have a large impact on next year’s team since his return will certainly depend on some promise to have him mainly playing 3. Without GRIII, we could have Levert playing 35 minutes at 2, Irvin starts at 3 with Chatman backing up, a very solid line-up.

    • geoffclarke

      “But mentally he is not there yet, coming back for another year would let him develop leadership, as THJr did…” I think he definitely has a different personality than Tim, but it seems he was a pretty good leader this year. He WAS a captain.

  • Indiana_Matt

    Don’t we “need” one player to leave in order to have enough scholarships? Or are we thinking the Hatch scholarship might be worked out in a different way where it doesn’t actually burn one?

    • AADave

      The consensus seems to be that Hatch would be a medical scholarship if necessary.

  • A2MIKE

    Call me crazy… but as a parent, I love the group of parents of these kids. I think everyone comes back and we start preseason #1. Stauskas comes back to have a Burke like year, GR3 comes back to be a solid 1st rounder and Mitch comes back to prove he can still play. I think that they all like each other and get along helps as well. Someone will have to transfer out or Hatch given a medical (which seems most likely in my opinion).

    • michalethoriginal

      he HAD a Burke like year

    • kam

      His year was as good as burke pretty much…

  • AADave

    Great update! Very informative! It seems like there’s a very short window for players to decide whether to enter the draft so we should know pretty soon who’s coming back and who’s not. it does look like Stauskas is gone. It seems like the smart move for him. Another year in college poses the risk of injury and a drop in draft status. I honestly think he may have the highest ceiling of any recent Michigan players and could be an elite player at the next level. GRIII’s decision comes down to the feedback he gets from scouts. As others here point out, he does have elite athleticism and should move up draft boards as teams get a longer look at him – much like THJ. I can’t blame him whichever way he chooses but if he’s projected as a second rounder another year with a commitment towards a greater role offensively should help him. As for McGary, I’m also very high on his potential if his health isn’t an issue. It sounds like the back problem will force him to wait another year.

    As a fan, I would love to have them all back but that seems unlikely. From a player’s perspective, they’ve already achieved essentially all they can at the college level – a national championship is more a matter of luck than skill.

  • M

    Nik and GRIII will go. McGary will stay. Next year we’ll have the pleasure of hearing every game announcer remind us of the fact that McGary sat out the bulk of this season with a lower back injury, much like we got to hear about the fact that Nik is more than just a shooter and Spike made it rain during the first half of the NCAA Championship Game.

  • PerferctPointofView

    GRlll should go!!!! As a GM I would think that with him playing the 4 position all his career in college being aggressive at the 3 and 2 will be an advantage for him. He just has to improve his jump shot, which was clearly coming into form.

    • BlueRev

      Admittedly GR3 made 5 of his last 6 threes in that last 3 games, but the 28-102 in the first 34 is pretty bad. I don’t know how one hot weekend of shooting can offset the fact he needs to improve there, but an offseason of work and improved season could really push him up. He could have the chance to play a significant amount of time at small fw too assuming NS gores pro, which could really boost his numbers too.

      • mikey_mac

        Like THJ, GR3 has good shooting form, so it’s hard not to imagine his putting it together. One thing that concerns me about him is, his best attributes are athleticism and finishing around the rim, which are highly questionable as to whether they can translate against NBA-sized rim protection. THJ was always a shooter first. To GR3’s advantage, though, he’s considerably stronger than THJ, and will play the same 2/3 position in the NBA.

  • BlueRev

    Assuming NS goes pro (been blessed to have ye) Caris takes his spot as our primary go-to guy, but Glen could be that 2nd option that Caris was this year. Caris is so quick and has a proven jumper, whereas Glen is so athletic and hopefully shows consistently improved range. But where do all the minutes go if GR3 (50/50) and Mitch (gotta come back bro!) return?

    McGary, GR3, Levert, Walton (avg. 30 per) get >120 minutes
    The other starter (Irvin, Chatman, Horford, or Donnel), those aforementioned off bench, Spike, and 3 other bigs get < 80–that's a lot of talent to only get 80 mpg!
    I'd guess Irvin & Donnel get 20 each, while Chatman, Spike & Horford get 10-15 each. THAT TEAM IS PRESEASON FINAL 4 PICK!

    If only McGary returns then the younger guys pick up a lot more pt–but I like the thought of them earning time behind veteran starters. That's still a top 10 team too.

  • Voice in your head

    I think they all go pro. Stauskas is more or less a lottery pick. GRIII will work his way solidly into the 1st round during workouts (he is currently a fringe 1st rounder). Mitch will show he is healthy enough for a team towards the bottom of the first to take a chance on his unique skillset. Think about it…the heat (and other quality teams at the bottom of the 1st) etc could greatly benefit and can absorb the risk of someone like him. The fact is mitch has just as much to lose from reinjury than he does from playing a healthy season and being a solid 1st round draft pick. His age at that point will work against him by next years draft as well. We will still be a tournament team even if all 3 leave.

    • mikey_mac

      Agree completely with your assessments, which I basically repeated before reading this. Since we know so little about McGary’s injury and the progress of his rehab, we can really just make wild speculation about him at this point, unfortunately.

  • Mattski

    Picked up one small hint as to why McGary might stay reading Brian’s assessment of this issue at mgoblog: he’d basically have a month to prove doubters wrong in tryouts if he declares for the draft. Unless he has already worked himself into pretty good shape that would be a lot of pressure and very little time, with some real possibility things go wrong, especially if reaching 100% with his back is incremental. . . On the other hand, it’s not hard to conceive that he might just feel ready to go, and sure of himself, not so wildly concerned about maximizing immediate earnings. . .

  • kam

    If only Nik left Our perimeter would be much better.. Walton as a soph, caris as a junior and irvin as a soph. Glenn also a junior. those guys all have the ability to be solid to above defenders.. Nik was very bad defensively. Caris, irvin and walton would provide plenty of guard scorning IMO

    • MAZS

      Thanks for yet another superfluous shot at Nik. You have at all times overstated Nik’s defensive limitations.

      • guestavo

        It isn’t an overstatement.

  • Patrick Nelson

    Why is the early entry withdrawl deadline before the early entry deadline seems ass backward! IJS.

    • College coaches want to know their rosters for the early signing period.

      • mikey_mac

        Bonus snarky explanation: NCAA doesn’t want to be hypocritical and show the players respect and decency in this one instance.

  • mikey_mac

    What needs to be kept in mind is that in today’s NBA, a second-round pick is all of a sudden no longer something teams sneeze at. Many teams are devoting a lot of effort to unearthing rotation guys with those high-value, low-dollar, non-guaranteed contracts.
    While it may not be the ideal scenario for an individual player, there is no reason to think that GR3 or McGary would not end up drafted if they left, so the only question is, how much do they value a potential first-round contract in 2015 versus the risk of a repeat of 2013 on their stock?
    FWIW, I think GR3 is a fringe first-rounder right now. Just needs a better jump shot. We made the same case for THJ last year. McGary would have to show full health at workouts, which seems unlikely as I type.

    • Cory

      No first round selection means no guaranteed rookie contract. That’s worth A LOT to any potential player. Imagine if Mitch is the first pick of the second round and his back starts acting up in training camp? He could be looking for a D-League spot before he knows it and probably need to put it a good amount of time to show he can be healthy. At that point a guy could be hoping for 10 day contracts and a good run to maybe sign the next year for the minimum. Looking at all that I think it makes all the sense in the world for a guy to get healthy, play a full college season and reestablish himself as a lock first round pick.

      • mikey_mac

        Yep, that’s the risk. But imagine if he hurts his back again at UM next year. Think he’s getting drafted at all? He’s already as old or older than everyone else in this year’s draft.
        I’m not at all prognosticating on him, just pointing out there are two sides.

        • information

          He is old for his year, but if he came out next year he would the age of a senior. Payne is getting 1st round grades at the same age Mitch would be next year. He will be fine if he produces next year. That being said, I think he shows he will be healthy and goes pro this year.

        • Kenny

          Everything has two side but in the case, one side clearly outweigh the other by a lot.

          • mikey_mac

            We don’t know what Mitch actually feels about his health or coming back for another year. He might be convinced he’s fine and that he will be able to prove it in May, and that he’s done with college.

  • Cory

    If McGary stays I think that’d make it likely that we could redshirt Doyle. Our bigs would be McGary, Horford, Donnal and Max. That’s pretty decent depth up front while Doyle could get an extra year to learn in the program.

    • BlueRev

      and RS Wilson too. Even without McG RS either Wilson or Doyle likely.

      • Cory

        With absolutely nothing to base this on I kind of envision Wilson having a freshman year like Caris had. A 6’8 forward that can play inside and out I think would have a place in a Beilein offense from the start.

        • BlueRev

          You could be right. If he has a strong outside shot he could be in the mix as a frosh, but I would guess Donnal has a huge advantage having been here for a year and having inside-outside skill with more weight and knowledge of the system. Of course both of these guys minutes would not just be impacted by McGary but also Robinson’s return.

        • Ben Sheler

          Wilson looks like a guy with unlimited potential. Extremely underrated. The things Beilein are going to do with him will be exciting. He might be another NBA first rounder before he is done at Michigan.

          • Justin

            Wilson is a prototypical version of Austin Daye. Tall, thin, and has lots of skill. I’ll take Austin Daye in college!

  • EchoWhiskey

    My wishful thoughts aside, I think Stauskas is gone and I won’t be surprised either way with GRIII – though my gut says he’ll go too.

    McGary, I just can’t see leaving. He’s still recovering and barely started running again. He would have to kill the workout circuit to get back into the first round. Those two facts don’t really add up to a decision of leaving. I’m sure he wants to, but it just doesn’t seem to make sense given the timing. Here’s hoping anyway.

  • richmond_eric

    Whatever happens, I would love to see Irvin playing at least 25 minutes per game. I think he will be super productive and draw lots of defensive attention. Now if everyone stays, these minutes will not be there. If Nik and/or Glenn leave, I am looking forward to watching the Zak, Derrick and Caris show (dare I include Mitch? Glenn) along with their strong supporting cast. I say team looks strong going forward as coaching staff continues to bring in and coach up very talented student-athletes. Go Blue!

  • David

    Does JMO have a shot at playing at the next level, what would his path look like?

    • Andy

      JMO has virtuously no NBA prospect, but he will soon graduate from Michigan with both an undergraduate and graduate degree in engineering, so I wish him the best in his future careers.

    • Justin

      No Chance.

    • arsenal926

      Probably not in the NBA, but there’s no reason he can’t go over seas and play for a couple of years. It was hard to follow exactly what Zach Novak did, but I believe he played in the Netherlands for a year and that went back and started a real career. Imagine it won’t be very much money, but there’s no reason he can play overseas.

      • jkuofm27

        My guess is with him completing his Masters in an engineering field that he will look to do that. But he also might not land something right away and doing some Europe, Israel or NBDL could be a way to make some cash in the mean time. Whatever he does he will be successful, because he is a winner and has no quit in him.

  • Chezaroo

    Just don’t see any of them coming back. Call it a misguided gut feeling or whatever, but this is the reality of college BB. Wish all of them well and thanks for the memories!

    • Ben Sheler

      It is why there is so much parity in college basketball. Once someone gets too good, they go to NBA.

  • Justin

    Here’s what it comes down to. Do these players care that much to take a chance and come back next year to take one final crack at a national championship run or do they want the money NOW! None of these 3 have poor families or need money right away to provide for their families. All 3 should come back if it matters to win a NC, if it doesn’t they should all leave and get paid now.

    I’ll say this much if all 3 leave. UM will be a bubble team next year and likely get in as a 7-10 seed. The following year in the class of 2015, John Beilein and company need to strike gold and get their best recruiting class in their UM tenures. The guys are there and the spots on the team should be open, I would like to see 3-4 top 50 guys out of that class and the 2016 class.

    • Chazer

      How many top 50 guys did they have last year? The system and culture is solid for another run next year…low turnovers, 3 point shooters a solid 4 in MD or Chatman. The pipe is full now!

      If one of the three return……top ten in the country by March!

      • Justin

        I’m not excited about a few items I have heard with Donnal from a few staff members, Chatman is better than him. They got beat by UK because they were more talented, we cannot expect to be in the final four every year and or win a national championship every 4 to 5 years with the current crop of talent we have. We need to have more talent, more studs, there is never enough. We need a 7’0 and some wings, UM is at the top of its game right now, need to strike GOLD for recruits in 2015 and 2016 after the back to back Elite Eight runs.

        • Dean

          I disagree with you we do not need top talent. Beilein brings in people who fit his system. He does not want one and dones. Stauskas was around 75th tanked out of high school. coach knows what he is looking for. Also Chatman is a 3 not a 4.

        • Chazer

          I will wait and see how MD plays and contributes before I listen to staff members. In the JB culture its all focused on teaching and improving. That’s his target recruit and he looks for huge upside. I would not hold my breadth for GOLD recruits with the current strategy and current results. He will get good players and make them very good to great but probably not many top ten kids. JMO.

          Go Blue!

        • ChathaM

          They did not lose to UK because UK was more talented. They lost to UK because UK did one thing well that they’ve failed to do well all season; hit 3’s. Don’t mistake size for talent. This Michigan team was every bit as talented as UK; just smaller.

  • guestavo

    Caris is the projected # 4 pick on NBAdraftnet http://nbadraft.net/2015mock_draft

    And # 20 on Draftexpress http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2015/

    The future is in good hands.

    • Cory

      #4? Wow. I’d definitely take the type of season from him that it’d take to get him to that level. We’d definitely be contenders again.

      • jkuofm27

        6’7″ pgs are hard to come by. Even if he is used primarily as a two, how many guys in the NBA are considered combo guards not because they want to be, but because they lack prerequisites for one or both of the positions (height, 3pt shot, court vision, etc.)? Levert would be a true combo guard. Him getting better, McGary coming back, Irvin getting better and all the other pieces would make for a top 5 to 10 team for sure.

        • guestavo

          Caris is a more explosive Brent Barry

          • Mattski

            He is a more explosive GOD HIMSELF!

        • Mark Worthley

          George Hill fits that perfectly.

        • Fred Z in Ann Arbor

          Caris reminds me of Scottie Pippen.

    • Nick

      people need to stop citing this website. nbadraft.net is not reputable in any sense. They have no information or sources. They dont do their own scouting. They just look around the internet and eyeball things.

      Caris LeVert will not be drafted ahead of Myles Turner, Rondae Hollis Jefferson, Kelly Oubre, Dario Saric etc. These guys are major prospects. LeVert has obv. improved drastically but he is a mid first rounder at best.

      And LeVert is not a combo guard. He is a two guard. Just because someone is capable of being a ballhandler in the ballscreen game, doesnt mean he is a pg or a combo. He has decent vision but misses way too many passes looking for his own. I dont have the stats, but he hit the roll man way less often than he shouldve this year. And he can guard other 2s, so that separates him from all the other guys labeled as combos bc they cant guard their position.

      • jkuofm27

        We are talking about Caris next year not this year. It is projecting that if he grows as much next year this is where he would land.
        As far as NBAdraft.net goes I have been following the site for years and it has been pretty accurate. I don’t care about using sources, because someone has to be the source. Citing a source means I dont know anything and had to ask someone else for the answer. Now if they are using sources for their information from a specific location or person and not giving credit then that is wrong.

      • Mark Worthley

        Would anyone have guessed Victor Oladipo would have been drafted 2nd after his sophomore year?

      • guestavo

        Nbadraft is a reputable site if you know what you are using it for.. It places players in the draft better than ESPN, CBS and Draftexpress. It also identified unheralded talent WAY before other sites (it had Caris in 2015 most of the year). Draftexpress is for scouting. ESPN is for insider chatter. Both of those sites tend to be late.

        LeVert is a combo guard. You are speaking in platitudes. Caris ended up with the exact same AST% as Stauskas. The whole “he misses the role man” sounds like someone who hasn’t watched him since the middle of the year.

    • Cory

      As long as the future isn’t being inbounded… ;)

  • jkuofm27

    The only one of the three that is really striking while the iron is hot is Nik. GRIII had a good finish to the season, but has not shown yet that he is a dominate player worthy of a first round pick. McGary’s injury and lack of time to get in “full” shape is working against him. The issue with all of them coming back or even 2 of the 3 is playing time. We have so many guys that could be used more and young guys coming in that can be effective next year that I am concerned that all or 2 of 3 coming back could cause chemistry issues or even transfers.

    Being selfish, the team needs McGary next year. They could survive without him with young players and Horford, but McGary gives them the potential for another deep run or FF/Championship. Stauskus or GRIII coming back would just be an embarrassment of riches. Walton, Irvin, Levert, Chatman, Wilson and Albrecht can give them enough at the 1-3 and even solid minutes at the 4.

    It seems it is the perfect point for Stauskus to leave. Young and still with potential to grow, but really had a great year and has a distinctive role in the NBA with a chance to be even more than that.

    GRIII is not in the same great situation, but because of the guys coming back and coming in he might almost need to go because of squeezed minutes. Not being selfish, but for GRIII, I wish he would come back and dominate and show who he really is and can be. I really think that he is a superstar and for whatever reason doesn’t realize it or think it.

    McGary’s biological clock is ticking, but he can come back and prove what we already know he is (a talented, hussling, beast) and be a lottery pick next year. I would not fault him for leaving though and I think that if he is healthy enough to work out for teams that he could quickly shoot up the boards. The only reason he is not higher on them is that he hasn’t played and has been injured. If he showed up to the NBA combine and blew up he would be a first round pick and maybe go in the lottery.

    These guys are all awesome and have really stood on Novak, Douglass and Morgan’s shoulders to not only bring the program back to respectability, but have made it an elite program. I hope that whenever they hit the pros that they tear it up like Trey and THJ are currently.

    • guestavo

      With McGary and GR3 back, our bench would be Chatman, Horford, Spike and Donnal. 8-9 deep is perfect. I don’t think that is a minutes crunch. Doyle and Wilson would redshirt.

      • jkuofm27

        I agree that minutes are not as big a deal of you are still running GRIII at the 4, but I don’t know if that is what they want to do. If they run with two bigs then Walton or Irvin have to come off the bench again. Minutes matter more than starting but that can be a hard sell to Mr. Basketball guys.
        Doyle might need to redshirt, but Wilson can help us next year. He can be a true stretch four. I am not saying he is going to be B1G POY or anything but he can fill a gap and log solid minutes.

      • Kenny

        If GRIII comes back, he will play 3, with Levert at 3, that will send Irvin to bench and about 10 minutes per game.

        If GRIII is gone, Irvin is going to start at 3 with Chatman backing him up. Still very solid rotation.

        • guestavo

          Irvin would play the 4 spot before Chatman or Donnal imo

          • Kenny

            I have to say that this is very likely too.

          • jkuofm27

            That could happen. I really like Irvin stepping up next year and taking the Stauskus role. I like Levert and Walton as primary ballhandlers at the top of the key and Irvin being the main option scorer. He will obviously need to grow, but if he grows like Stauskus and Levert did this year he will be perfect for it. I think he can be that kind of efficiency player. It might look and feel different, but with similar results.

          • Blake

            probably, but I would rather have some more size at that position. Sick of getting killed on the boards

        • MAZS

          There is zero chance that Irvin only plays 10 minutes a game under any scenario.

      • Dean

        Doyle would not red shirt as long as he is better than beifeldt we need the extra big man. here is my line up assuming only stauskas leaves.
        PG: Walton 27 minutes Albrecht: 8 Levert: 5
        SG: Levert 25 Irvin 15
        SF: Robinson 15 levert:5 Irvin: 10 chatman: 10
        PF: Mcgary 15 Donnal: 10 Robinson: 15
        C:Horford 15 Mcgary: 15 Doyle 10

        If robinson leaves
        PG Walton 30 Albrecht 10
        SG levert 30 chatman 10
        SF Irvin 25 chatman 10 levert 5
        PF Mcgary 20 donnal 10 Irvin 5
        C Horford 15 Mcgary 10 Doyle 15

        • Mark Worthley

          Who are the starters under the first scenario?

          McGary,
          Robinson,
          LeVert,
          Walton, and
          ???????

          • Dean

            Horford or doyle who ever proves to be better. If its a smaller team we may go with a smaller lineup

          • BlueRev

            Donnal or Irvin

        • jkuofm27

          This is redshirting Wilson who I think brings a lot of things to the table that the team is missing, namely a long, athletic big man that can stretch the defense. He also seems like a really good off the ball shot blocker. McGary is ok with that and Robinson has shown some of this, but with Wilson it looks like it is a natural thing. Obviously we don’t know if that will translate when he is playing taller, bigger and stronger players, but it seems to fit his body type and play style.

          • Dean

            I agree wilson looks good if he proves he is good enough than we won’t red shirt him. I just see too many people and not enough minutes.

        • guestavo

          Donnal is a center in my opinion so you have your 3 rotational bigs : McGary, Donnal, Horford

          • Dean

            Donnal is not a center and if he is doyle is definitely better than him. Donnal is a 4

          • guestavo

            Disagree. He isn’t going to shoot off a dribble handoff, create off the bounce, run ballscreen action or have the lateral quickness to man that position. He is taller than Morgan and with added muscle, he will be a center mostly used in Pick N Pop and Pick N Roll.

          • geoffclarke

            If he’s as good a shooter as I think he can be, you can put him in the right corner with McGary or Horford running the PnR and Donnal’s defender won’t be able to help off. I agree he wouldn’t be able to create off the dribble as well as Chatman or our recent 4s, or be as laterally quick as you’d like at the 4, but as you pointed out, he’s tall. You could also put Donnal as a 4 as the screener in the PnR. Bottom line, if McGary comes back, we’re going to have more than enough big men to run two bigs a significant chunk of time and IMO Donnal and McGary are the best options at 4 in that scenario, and you’d want McGary closer to the basket, IMO.

          • MAZS

            I hope everyone is right about Donnal. He appears to be a Beilein stretch 4. But I remain skeptical of what we should expect next year. We had great need for a stretch 4–hell any type of helpful 4–to back up Robinson this year. The fact that he was red-shirted under those circumstances suggests we should keep expectations reasonable.

          • MAZS

            Have you seen Doyle play? If you’ve only seen tape–like I–then he looks like a project. Big and slow(ish)–not really a Beilein system player IMHO–but the coaches must see something. He played in a very weak league, has limited AAU experience and is ranked 100+. Doyle is ripe for a redshirt–and if Mitch returns, its a certainty. He ain’t taking backup center minutes away from Horford, nor will Beilein play that many big guys. I will be thrilled if Doyle is a contributor down the road

        • Kenny

          the rotation will be much shorter towards the end of the season. Donnal, Horford, McGary rotation at 4-5 would be enough. When go small, Chatman will play 4 if GRIII leaves. Ricky might be more ready than Morgan and Horford as freshman, but if McGary comes back, he will not play.

      • Blake

        I talked to people in the know and they said Wilson will not redshirt. too good

  • Kenny

    Duncan is 38. Juwan Howard played till 41. Big man developes late and the top ones usually have a long career if stays injury free. Duncan played 4 years of college, Juwan 3 years. For McGary, age is not an issue

    • Neil

      Great point. Health and size seem to be the only traits necessary for a NBA roster spot. There are some bums at the end of benches for some teams.

      He is athletic enough to get by as his skills develop. Again great point

    • Mark Worthley

      Tyler Hansbrough played 4 years in college, and he got a nice raise with his second contract.

    • JVS

      Hansbrough and Duncan were (healthy) National Players of the Year. I think those examples prove that NPOY level talent can stay past 22-23 and end up with long/healthy careers b/c they have that core skill/talent that is proven out in college and will thus get the minutes and development necessary to entrench themselves in a rotation immediately. If Mitch wins NPOY next year, I suppose these would be good comps for him, but thats a huge if.

    • Mattski

      Yes, big men often take longer to develop as players. But maximizing his draft impact, given his health concerns, remains an issue. And his age remains an issue, part of the mix. So many things–like back problems–can happen. Duncan and Howard are undoubtedly exceptions in their longevity; nor does developing relatively late have anything to do with playing to a later age. Unless you have some data tying these two separate things together. . . We can all come up with anecdotal examples of large-bodies flameouts, etc.

      • Kenny

        Healthy is #1 for the bigs, age, not much an issue. Out of 5 oldest NBA player in history, 4 are Center/PF, Kevin Willis, Parish, Mutombo, Kareem. Out of 22 who played beyond 40, 14 are bigs.

        • Mattski

          Interesting–thanks. I still think that his age is an issue for a number of reasons–the fact that people are making it an issue among them. I could see a lot of reasons for him to stick around, and the fact (as you note) his development might come later anyway, might be among them. But as others have also noted, if he risks further injury in college, his age is implicitly at issue there, too. You figure you have a window in which to get established, recognized as of potential future value, etc.

          • Kenny

            Some of what you said is true, a good example is Sullinger who would’ve got a better rookie contract if leave after a year. Another good example is Greg Oden, whose stock would’ve tanked if he stayed another year and assume the same injury occurred. On the hinder sight, McGary would’ve been better off, at least in short term, if he enter the draft last year when he is a first round lock if not a lottery. However, given that he has not fully recovered from injury and has good chance falling out of the first round because of the concern over his injury, his best option right now is to stay around to show that he is fully recovered and can stay healthy.

  • Ben Sheler

    Where would Michigan rank on the all-time list of best college basketball teams if all three returned? Potentially 4 first rounders who are all juniors and probably at least 3 other guys who will also get drafted. It is possible!

    • guestavo

      UK,Kansas, Duke, Wisconsin and UNC will all be able to make the same claim even if all 3 came back.

      • Ben Sheler

        Kentucky is all freshmen, duke lost in first round, wisconsin has limited NBA caliber talent and lost big ten by 3 games to us, and UNC wasn’t very good. Michigan would have 4 1st rounders who are JUNIORS (do not know last time that ever happened) on a team that was already good enough to win the big ten by 3 games the previous years with one of the biggest impact players injured. No other team can make any claim close to that..

      • Justin

        Guestavo…don’t be a hater. UM would be right there with Duke and UK…Kansas is a step back but not far off…Wisconsin as well and UNC just lost McAdoo…So UM would be Top 3 team in preseason. I think Jabari is coming back to Duke and it’s 50-50 on whether the Harrison’s return according to writers out of Lexington…They bring in 4 McDonalds All Americans including one of our misses (Devin Booker). I would say UM would be No. 3 under all of those assumptions and a favorite to reach their second final four in 3 years and anything short of a national championship would be a disappointment…similar to where we are with the Detroit Tigers.

        • guestavo

          I didn’t say UM wouldn’t be right there. Calm down. Other teams will have talent too and next year should yield more dominant teams, including UM.

  • wolvfan1013

    Walton (30); Spike (5); Levert (5)

    Levert (20); Spike (10); Irvin (5); Chatman (5)

    Irvin (10); Levert (5); Robinson (10); Chatman (5);

    Robinson (20); Donnal (10); McGary (5); Irvin (5)

    McGary (25); Horford (10); Donnal (5)

    • Cory

      If GR3 came back I don’t see his minutes going down or Chatman playing less next year than Irvin did this year.