Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary slipping in NBA mock drafts

Iowa State 77, Michigan 70-10It’s no secret that the start of Michigan’s 2013-14 campaign has been disappointing. The Wolverines have already dropped three games and their two projected first-round draft picks have yet to find top-gear. (Photo: Dustin Johnston)

McGary missed time early on in the season with a back injury and is still rounding into form. McGary is averaging 9.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game but hasn’t looked like the big man that dominated the NCAA tournament last season.

Robinson has struggled to display improvement to offensive game and is shooting just 25% from three-point range on the year. He hasn’t been aggressive offensively and his production has decreased without Trey Burke passing him the ball. His play appeared to hit rock bottom in a high profile game at Duke on Tuesday, totaling just 8 points in 34 minutes.

Various mock drafts are starting to reflect the early season trends.

Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix updated his mock draft with Mitch McGary slotted at No. 18 and Glenn Robinson III at No. 20. He’s a bit more bullish on McGary’s chances of rising.

A lower-back injury kept McGary out for the first two games of Michigan’s season, and the rust of not playing clearly showed in the first month of play. But there are signs that McGary is shaking it off. He posted 14 points and 12 rebounds in an overtime win against Florida State last month and on Tuesday had a 15-point, 14-rebound effort in a loss to Duke. For now, McGary slips a little on the Big Board. But as he gets healthier, his production — and draft stock — should keep improving.

Mannix’s take on Robinson, is a bit more harsh.

Let’s not sugarcoat it: Robinson has been a big disappointment. Both his shooting and three-point percentages have plummeted and he has yet to surpass 15-points in a game this season. In a marquee game against Duke this week, Robinson totaled just eight points in 34 minutes. With Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. off to the NBA, Robinson was expected to produce more. He can’t afford another month like the last one.

Jeff Goodman spoke with NBA scouts in Durham on Tuesday and they weren’t impressed with Robinson’s play either.

Adam Zagoria’s discussions with scouts yield similar results: Robinson is slipping but McGary should still be in the top-20 range.

There are still plenty of games to be played. At this time last year, people were just starting to even mention Robinson as a potential pro and McGary wasn’t on the radar. Four months later and they were considered likely lottery picks.

Draft Express’s mock draft was last updated on November 26th and slots Robinson at No. 17, McGary at No. 20 with Nik Stauskas sneaking in at the fourth pick of the second round. Stauskas has started to receive increased NBA Draft buzz after racking up large scoring totals early in the season.

Stauskas was also mentioned in Chad Ford’s latest big board as a potential first round pick. The 6-foot-6 Canadian, like most of his teammates, had a disappointing performance in Durham, failing to make a shot from the field.

  • Ben Sheler

    Is Stauskas probably gone if he is a projected 1st rounder? It would be hard to see him passing on the opportunity.

    • KAM

      Next years class is weaker.. if he stays he can be a higher pick

      • Indiana_Matt

        Let’s hope for that! We need him another year. The kid seems dead focused (slightly obsessed) on getting to the League.

  • Mattski

    Hope those guys can block this kind of stuff out.

    • ChathaM

      Given that Glenn retweeted a Jason McIntyre rebuttal to Goodman’s comments, I don’t think that blocking it out is a priority. I’m not sure that’s a big deal, though. The world has changed.

      • http://www.umhoops.com/ Dylan Burkhardt

        Here’s the tweet that Glenn RT’d, FWIW.

        https://twitter.com/jasonrmcintyre/status/408595806141173761

        • Tommy Amaker

          Im sorry but I am I the only one who finds this pathetic? Glenn lays an egg against Duke and then feels the need to retweet someone defending him as an nba prospect?? The tweet even defends him as a prospect compared to his own teammates!! Clearly his head is not where it needs to be. If he were to retweet anything, why couldn’t it have been Goodman’s calling him out? At least that would show he acknowledges his poor play and is hungry to prove the doubters wrong instead of making excuses

          • Indiana_Matt

            I must admit I thought he would be retweeting the doubters for motivation.

        • carl showalter

          i’m sure he’s a good kid but he’s coming across as spoiled and soft…

      • Mattski

        Fascinating. It’s like he felt he had to get out in front of his own bad press. The world HAS changed, but I’m not sure that this is for the better.

  • KAM

    The MOST SHOCKING thing is we heard all summer how Glenn had been dominating practice. They said he was attacking making great passes and creating his shot and looked amazing. Players even said he was the most dominate. Yet during The games its Nik or Caris and even a game with Irvin. Glenn had the one GREAT game against D2 school… Just confused.. were we lied to?

    • Mattski

      You watched him last year, right? He had stretches where he was truly phenomenal, others where he disappeared. I haven’t watched all of the games, but it doesn’t look to me like the offense has been rebuilt around him, and meanwhile there is an enormous amount of change underway. Trey knew how to get him the ball. Lot of factors here, and I don’t think that he just lost all of his skills somewhere by the roadside. . . don’t think anyone’s trying to mislead us, either. I’m kind of taken aback by people’s willingness to pile on against one of our own; don’t really know what this obtains us. He’s 19 years old.

      • KAM

        Yes.. last year he was all set up by trey.. He would get open jumpers in the corner or fast break lobes or cut lobs.. He NEVER was creating his own shot. His talent didn’t disappear he just seem to have improved. They give him the ball and he cant do anything. I don’t hate him or anything. I just understand if he isn’t getting open looks or lobs or dunks he isn’t really a factor. he in his big games last year he just made a lot of threes. It wasn’t like he was creating his shot. So maybe his shot will improve!

        • arsenal926

          Rewatch the second half of the tournament game against South Dakota State, he was phenomenal that game and created tons of shots on his own. He obviously doesn’t do it enough, but he flashes the potential that he can be a solid NBA player and thats all the NBA needs to take him somewhere in the first round.

    • Indiana_Matt

      I don’t think we were lied to. I think it means that we need to be patient. If the kid needs a 3rd year in school to develop, selfishly that makes me happy. I love Glenn. I feel like he is going to get there.

      He talked about being the main man on his high school team and so he knows how to behave in that role if he needs to. But I think, when he looks at this team, he honestly has to have come to the realization that there are other guys better in that role for this group. So I think he is reeling from what everyone expected and what is just plainly the reality. Nik and Mitch are the alpha dogs on this squad. They are the most aggressive and least afraid of making mistakes. They don’t ask, they take (and that means occasionally they do stupid things). Now, I think Glenn probably has the most talent of the bunch. And I think he knows this and that is the struggle. He just doesn’t seem to have the personality to take over when other, stronger personalities are in the mix. So right now is just a period of everyone figuring out what they need to do to win.

    • Chris De Sana

      Huge difference in beating up your little brother, your team mates that you know you are better than, and beating up on another teams 4 or 5 star stud who is out to prove he belongs to be higher on the draft board than you are.

  • Dr_ZC

    It will all depend how deep Michigan goes to the NCAA tournament. A good run to the final 4 can only be achieved if GR3 McGary and Stauskas are dominant. In that case all three go. Tim was not as dominant in last year’s NCAA run, and we were thinking he might be staying for his senior year. So, it is still too early to tell who stays and who goes. It will all depend on what they do in March.

    • KAM

      I personally never thought Tim or trey would come back.. It wouldn’t have made any sense. There stock wouldn’t have improved. Mitch is older and NBA GMS knock older players. Plumlee last year for Duke was very good but was dropped out of the first round because he was a senior. I think mitch will leave. Nik and glenn i have no clue. Nik coming back could really raise his stock, but everyone says he REALLY loves the NBA.

  • Champswest

    For my two cents, at least 2 of the 3 should wait at least another year. I don’t watch much NBA, so my opinion may not be worth much.

    Having said that, I will state once again that this is a very young team and will take some time to grow and develop I am not that concerned with early season loses. As the team develops better chemistry, individual performance as well as team performance should improve.

  • mikey_mac

    GR3′s NBA prospects remain exactly the same. He’s the same player, plus some extra muscle this year. We as UM fans had hoped he would show a more diverse arsenal. That would have also been the key to his draft stock rising from last year (even against the headwind of a loaded lottery). We just haven’t seen it.

    • Tim

      Disagree. NBA teams were betting on his development and being able to show more once he was focal point of team. He hasn’t done that and now they (and us) are concerned that his ceiling is not what we had hoped.

      • mikey_mac

        I understand where you’re coming from, but I give NBA scouts a little more credit to understand that a player isn’t going to go from having no dribble-drive game as a college freshman to having that be a viable NBA-level skill anytime soon, if ever.

        • Chris De Sana

          True but have you seen a marketable improvement? I think the case could be made that Irvin should be taking away some of GR3′s minutes if for no other reason at least he puts forth more effort.

          • guestavo

            GR3 is a great defender. People only pay attention to one side of the ball. Irvin should cut into Spike/Jon/Morgan minutes

          • KAM

            Great? id say solid

          • guestavo

            Comparatively to any other player on our roster, Glenn ranks as our best defender.

          • KAM

            I agree but IMO that really doesn’t impress me.. Him being solid or just a good defender would easily make him our best. caris would be 2 and he’s solid because he makes mental mistakes at times and he struggles against heavy guys

          • mikey_mac

            Marketable? Not sure what that means here, but I would say he does look somewhat better defensively and on the glass.
            Offensively, I really think it’s his handle that is holding him back.

          • Chris De Sana

            Make no mistake GR3 is trying to market himself to the NBA, do you see improvements in his game that would help him rise in the draft? You may…. but I don’t. And that starts with what appears his lackluster ambition.

          • mikey_mac

            I basically said his stock isn’t rising, so I’m not sure why the contention on that. I just don’t think it’s really a problem, and I also think he’s still got the same NBA potential he did last year.

    • http://www.umhoops.com/ Dylan Burkhardt

      Well, at the very least his stats have decreased across the board. He doesn’t have Trey Burke passing to him but his shooting numbers are way down.

      • mikey_mac

        Since I haven’t noticed a difference in his shooting form, I’ve just chalked up his shooting % to small sample size. Something to keep an eye on, though.

      • guestavo

        He had nothing but bad shooting games against the cupcakes but since Longbeach St, he has been around the 45-50% FG and 33% 3 pt which is consistent with what he has always been…

  • Chezaroo

    This is one of the deepest drafts in recent memory. Besides all the known quantities here at home, there are multiple foreign kids who warrant first round love. No one knows where our young mens heads are, but once you’ve felt the praise and accolades of the scouts, I find it very difficult to think your head is in college. There is little question that Mitch and GR3 will be drafted lower this year ( if they leave ) than they would have last year. IMO there is little or no chance that they are lottery candidates. That being said, historically the longer you stay in college the more scrutinized you become, and the more exposed your true game is. You have a VERY small window to capitalize on youth, potential, and the unknown.

  • guestavo

    I wish it would stop. Chad Ford isn’t even good at projecting where guys will go in the first round, only that they will go in the first round. 6 months, NCAA tournament, workouts, interviews. People talking about nothing. Sad to hear Glenn is retweeting the noise.

    • Chezaroo

      Part of the culture we live in now. As much as we would like to believe that any student-athlete with pro potential is totally focused on his team, we all know their ultimate goal and desire. They are ALL well aware of these mock draft projections.

      • KAM

        Yup.. You cant avoid it. He turns on the TV he sees it. He goes on the internet he reads it.. He goes out in public he hears it from others. The only thing he can do is play ball!!!

    • mikey_mac

      It really is just noise, and that’s the problem. He’s got much better options close to him that can provide more meaningful input than worrying what guys like Chad Ford are projecting.

  • robpollard

    The Adam Zogoria tweet is spot-on. This isn’t rocket science — if Mitch continues to slowly improve and doesn’t show any lingering back issues, he’ll be in the lottery. He has already shown improvement this year (dribbling up the court multiple times) and still has the same skills/measurables that the NBA will love (great outlets, good rebounder, max energy, very good size).

    GRIII looks like the prototypical #25-35 pick, e.g., where a very good team will take a bit of a flier. Seemingly great skill set, excellent body type, but just doesn’t impact the game enough. You look at the box score and he typically does OK (e.g., 10-15 pts, 4-7 rebounds), but it’s the proverbial “quiet” impact. The Duke game was a prime opportunity for him to standout (and UM needed him – they were struggling mightily on offense in the first half) and it didn’t happen. I’ve been more impressed, consistently, with Levert than GRIII (not to mention McGary and Stauskas)..

    Hopefully, GRIII can shake off this slow start and start to shine (without pressing). But after eight games, if I was an NBA scout, I’d be concerned.

  • TANK

    I think Glen sit backs and wait to much like he hopes that just maybe if he wait in the corner long enough for the 30 mins plus he get a game that maybe Trey Burke will appear and he can go back to balling. If he have any dreams of playing in the NBA (Not Going) Actually playing it starts now. Go show out against good competition.

    • guestavo

      I don’t agree with this at all, since most of the PG in the NBA are Trey Burke level. Where you are drafted has nothing to do with what you do once you actually get on the court. The fact is that Glenn needs a good lead guard to function and there are a number of NBA players whom the same thing could be said….

      • TANK

        Well guestavo I understand that but the higher you get drafted the more opportunities you get. If you watch Glen game he just stays in the corner don’t get me wrong I’m a Die hard Michigan fan but just like most I’m tired of telling myself he’s gone to step up when he continues to play likes he scarred or nervous.

        • guestavo

          I’m not sure this is true. Thomas Robinson was a top 5 pick and sat on the bench while someone like Chandler Parsons was logging heavy minutes. There has been many a player who turned out better in the NBA than in college. Team fit is the biggest determinant of a player’s success along with individual attitude. It would be cool to see Glenn in a more traditional system and compare.

          • TANK

            Well I hope your right maybe he will have success at the next level. I just was mislead by the fact of him gaining so much muscle and the fact that Trey and Tim has gone to the NBA that he would step up and take most of the pressure of the team. Honestly it looks to me that the only thing he did do all summer was workout (lift weights).

    • mikey_mac

      Weird, this post was authored by KAM until I refreshed …

      • http://www.umhoops.com/ Dylan Burkhardt

        Comment names sometimes get a little botched up w/ the live commenting. Some sort of bug w/ Disqus.

  • http://www.umhoops.com/ Dylan Burkhardt

    Reminder: Posting under multiple handles from the same IP will get you banned.

    • KAM

      My account was deleted and that keeps happing so I’m posting as a guest by the same name “KAM”

      • guestavo

        I’ve had to do that a few times, as well.

        • KAM

          Yeah i have no clue why.. this is my 3rd time haha

  • guestavo

    He is a good on ball defender *shrug* He can’t help it that JB never teaches his guys how to properly rotate and help defend

  • http://www.umhoops.com/ Dylan Burkhardt

    You guys are starting to lose it… I’m sure JB never teaches help defense or how to rotate *eye roll*… really?

  • guestavo

    So there has to be a disconnect? OR maybe the teacher needs to retool the lesson plan?

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