Draft Roundup: Dates, mock drafts and notes

Dylan Burkhardt
on

EJ1U1329
Dustin Johnston

Michigan’s magical run to the NCAA tournament is over and the first piece of off season business to handle is the NBA Draft. John Beilein had the most talented roster of his career last season but having four potential first round picks comes at a cost. Trey Burke, Glenn Robinson III, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Mitch McGary all have very real NBA prospects to explore in the next month.

There are so many deadlines and dates swirling regarding the NBA Draft that we decided to run down the list and run through the basics.

The first step in the process is applying to the NBA Draft Undergraduate Advisory Committee. Submitting a name to the committee doesn’t mean a prospect is entering the draft, only that they wish to receive information from league executives regarding their status. The deadline to submit your name is April 10th (yesterday) and feedback will be delivered by April 15th. All four Michigan players with pro prospects reached out to this committee.

“We were very proactive and met with them that next morning (after the NCAA title game loss in Atlanta) before we got on the plane to come back,” Beilein said this morning on WTKA-AM (1050). “I advised them all they should all go the NBA advisory committee and see what they think, so that’s the process right now.”

The NCAA has set a “withdrawal deadline” of April 16th but the official date to declare for the NBA Draft is April 28th. The April 16th deadline is non consequential other than meaning that there will be no testing of the waters this year; players can’t enter the draft this week and return to school at the end of April.

Michigan’s four NBA prospects will have until April 28th to make their decisions, after the jump we rundown where they sit in the minds of some major draft prognosticators.

Trey Burke

ESPN Rank: No. 7
ESPN Mock: 2013 No. 6
ESPN In or Out: One foot out the door
Draft Express Rank: No. 7
Draft Express Mock: No. 7
NBA Draft.net Mock: 2013 No. 6

Quotable: CBS Sports on Burke: “No one’s stock rose more than Burke. Foul trouble in the championship game was the only thing that really slowed Burke down and allowed Louisville to win the title. Without Burke’s NBA-level ball-handling against the press, the Wolverines melted.

Burke has great speed and athleticism, can shoot the lights out from NBA range, and constantly responded with scores when Michigan needed it. He was the Wolverines’ go-to guy in the tournament and in the championship game, where he scored 24 points on just 11 shots. Burke has likely moved himself closer to the top 5.”

Glenn Robinson III

ESPN Rank: No. 14
ESPN Mock: No. 15
ESPN In or Out: 50-50
Draft Express Rank: No. 21
Draft Express Mock: 2014 No. 6
NBA Draft.net Mock: 2013 No. 11

Quotable: Glenn Robinson III on Twitter: “Stressful week. So much to do/think about!””

Random NBA scout on Robinson: “”(Robinson) has the best chance to be a solid NBA player of all of them.”

Mitch McGary

ESPN Rank: No. 31
ESPN Mock: No. 12
ESPN In or Out: 50-50
Draft Express Rank: No. 17
Draft Express Mock: 2014 No. 9
NBA Draft.net Mock: 2013 No. 18

Quotable: Sporting News on McGary: “The 6-foot-10 freshman’s breakthrough performance in the NCAA Tournament must have simultaneously thrilled and scared Michigan fans. With a full season of McGary dominating in the post, the Wolverines will again be one of the favorites in the Big Ten and a Final Four contender. Of course, he was so good during Michigan’s run to the championship game that making the jump to the NBA suddenly became a very real—and very lucrative—option for the talented big man.”

Tim Hardaway Jr.

ESPN Rank: No. 51
ESPN Mock: N/A
ESPN In or Out: One foot out the door
Draft Express Rank: No. 59
Draft Express Mock: 2013 No. 51 (2nd Round, 21st)
NBA Draft.net Mock: 2013 No. 28

Quotable: Chad Ford on Hardaway: “He does just about everything well, but he doesn’t have that one thing that he’s really hanging his hat on at the next level. He’s a solid shooter. He’s a solid penetrator. He’s a solid defender. You can go through the list. But that one thing he does exceptionally well? I haven’t seen it yet.”

  • ZRL

    How exactly did Michigans ball handling melt without burke? They had less turnovers in the first half. Just lazy writing.

    • True… guess I could have used a better quote from that one. Mostly picked it due to the top 5 assessment.

  • Northern Blue

    Lets hope Trey tells these freshmen the value of coming back to school as a sophomore, and if they do declare, I hope they are getting the right advice.

    I think if Tim finished off the year on one of his hot streaks, for the last three games or so, he would be pretty firm in the back end of the first round. If he does have one foot out the door like the article states, it is too bad he couldn’t get it going after South Dakota game.

    • mikey_mac

      You have to keep in mind the relatively poor draft class this year. This is boosting Burke’s stock almost as much as his improvement. So next year, an improved draft class will negate some or all of GR3’s or McGary’s improvements, assuming NBA scouts do indeed think they improved.

      • Champswest

        Name all the players in next years draft that will make it a better draft than this years.

        • mikey_mac

          I can’t. No one can at this point. But, to add to the point I made in reply to Cary Bear, just knowing this year is considered the worst in the last decade means that the odds significantly favor next year’s class being considered better. Since we don’t have concrete info on the future (sans a time machine), we have to project based on the past: an average draft is considered better than this year’s.

          That said, even with the fool’s errand of projecting next year’s class, Chad Ford currently believes next year’s class will be better, starting at the top with Andrew Wiggins.

          • Northern Blue

            Drafts are judged on how top heavy they are. The only difference between this year and next year is that the top 5 next year will be significantly better than the top 5 this year. All drafts are about the same after the lottery. This draft is perceived poorly because there might not be a star in it. Obviously, there will probably be one, maybe even two stars, but unlike some other drafts no one has any clue which guy will turn into that star. There is no Blake Griffin, Anthony Davis, and so on. To say a guy that is slotted in late lottery can’t move up because next year’s draft class is stronger is ridiculous.

          • mikey_mac

            Not sure where I said a player can’t move up. My comments are all about statistical likelihoods, which means I’m decidedly not talking about any one player.

        • Indiana_Matt

          Per the info above, draftexpress.com actually has them both climbing a few spots if they stay.

        • Josh

          I agree that it is foolish to base these decisions on the perceived strength or weakness of the draft. Just for informational purposes though, next year is perceived as “strong” based on Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins and the rest of the Kentucky roster (8 are considered 1st round picks) and that’s just the freshman and sophs.

  • Fab 5 Legends

    Im fine with all 4 leaving…they are all great players…that contributed to this teams run…

    with that being said…it would be amazing to see GRIII and McGary comeback or 1 more year…Timmy? why not come lead the team…
    by May I guess will see how Michigan basketball will look like next year

  • EchoWhiskey

    Venturing a totally uneducated guess, I would say the freshman return while Burke and Hardaway venture out. I just reminded myself of our recruiting class for 2013 and I must say we’re looking like a good team next year regardless of how the draft entries shake out.

    This program is in good hands!

    • Champswest

      If we lose all four this year, we are not looking so good for next year.

      • Indiana_Matt

        Not top 25 to start the year, but I still think we’d sneak in the tournament.

      • EchoWhiskey

        Obviously the more that come back the better. But say we lose all four. What position is glaringly bad? Depth would obviously be hurt, but we have Horford/Morgan at 5, Donnal/Beilfeldt at 4, Irvin/Stauskas at 3, Stauskas/Levert at 2, and Albrecht/Walton at 1. Not a title contender, but a solid lineup. 4 position could be tough if Donnal isn’t ready, but every other position has high ceiling or proven players.

        • Fab 5 Legends

          I think we need at least 1 of the 4 to comeback to have an impact in the big ten…if no one comes back…hopefully Levert, Stauskas, Beifeldt develop…or else we will be in trouble if were hoping Walton and Irvin leads the offense

  • mikey_mac

    To me, it’s telling of the quality of this year’s draft class that David Lee, who is seen as a decent comp for McGary’s very-top-end potential, was taken at the end of the first round back in 2005. If NBA GMs want to take McGary in the first round, he’s gotta take advantage now. Getting hacked all next year in the B1G is a recipe for “stalled progress” (See: Zeller, Cody).

    • jemblue

      Actually, all that tells me is that David Lee was a steal where he was drafted. If the 2005 Draft could have been re-done, he’d have gone in the lottery.
      Also, Zeller will be a lotto pick this year, too.

      • mikey_mac

        Agreed on both. But re: Zeller, he would’ve been a lottery pick last year, too. His pro prospects are not considered better now, even though he was statistically better this year. I foresee the same for McGary, honestly, which is why I feel like, considering how scouts roughly evaluate him higher than what they did Lee (even though Lee is his best-case comparison), if McGary can get a first-round evaluation, he should grab it.

  • Josh

    The quality of a particular draft class is overrated as a barometer in my opinion. You can either play at the next level or not. Michigan has 3 guys who now have “next level” skills. Hardaway (and Stauskas) are on the fringe. I suppose the only guys the “weak/strong” issue really matters for is those guys who are considered fringe 1st rounders in the perceived weaker class, because a bump to 2nd round in perceived stronger class means no guaranteed dollars. When it comes to the 2nd rounders, it is irrelevant because frankly I’d rather go undrafted and get a camp invite then be drafted in the 2nd round by an NBA team. The “weak draft class” thing becomes an easy crutch, but if you look back at draft history (using 20-20 hindsight), I doubt you’ll be able to tell which drafts were perceived as weak/strong at the time. Point is, I would hope these guys are not relying on this perceived “weak” class as a reason for going over staying.

    • mikey_mac

      Even if, in 10 years, with hindsight, the advance perception of a draft class’s quality proves to be patently inaccurate, it won’t matter in the next month when advice is given to players on whether or not to declare. Simply put, the perception of the class does matter, and you indeed noted the reasons, plus add in the additional money higher picks get.

  • Cary Bear

    One thing that bothers me is that almost every year people say that this year’s class is weak. I remember that being the justification for manny harris, dmo, almost for burke last year and now for the others this year. At some point, I think people need to realize that the future classes often look stronger because they are projecting players who may not have even played college basketball yet. Ultimately, looking at and trying to project draft classes seems like a pretty futile process to me and one that gets overblown a lot…More important is whether or not the players game would be best served by an additional year or if they have enough of what it takes to be drafted in the first round and develop subsequently.

    Another thing that bothers me is this perception that first round draft picks are all complete players and should be ready to flourish immediately in the NBA. This is simply not the case. In any given year, I estimate there are 0-3 All-NBA caliber players that emerge from a draft the others are a mix of average starters, role players, and flops. The fact of the matter is that nowadays in the one and done environment, the talent in the first round is not that polished and well-developed.

    • mikey_mac

      I can see your point about trying to scrutinize *future* draft classes too closely, to compare to the current or previous classes. But as for assessing this year’s class, we have a pretty good feel for the potential draft pool, and so we can compare it to recent classes. The consensus is, it is worse than every other class in the last 10 years.

    • MGoTweeter

      I agree in terms of how you view this years draft compared to next years. People look at the highschool seniors and assume a lot of them are going to be stars and nba ready talent after one year. There was a point in time before the season when people were saying a bunch of the kentucky freshmen were lottery picks. It turns out they were not nearly that good. Even Noel who has long been projected as the top pick took steps back in that regard even before his injury. Right now there a bunch of guys in high school that scouts are salivating over but it is a good bet the majority of them will show tremendous flaws once they play in college.

      This whole thing on when to declare is close to a guessing game. Burke came back and made himself millions of dollars by doing so. On the other hand, there are players like Zeller who had a great chance to get drafted very high last season. Chose to come back and probably cost himself millions of dollars. These are incredibly tough decisions to make for young kids.

      • Juan Gone

        What you say makes a lot of sense, but remember there are two sides to that coin & a lot of guys who are in HS right now and not on any NBA radar, may blow up as freshmen & leave. Like Trey last year (even though he obviously came back), I don’t think anyone besides him expected him to be that good as a true freshman.

        IMO, players who are contemplating going this year shouldn’t attempt to read the tea leaves on next year’s draft, bc it’s so uncertain right now. Just evaluate this season and the range in which they are forecast to be chosen, and make the decision based on that.

        • Adam St Patrick

          Would be great for Michigan if they do, but it doesn’t work like that and probably shouldn’t. I hate to say it, but if McGary really grades out as a lottery pick, he is going to have to choose between the option to be a high-useage player at Michigan or being drafted high. As good as he can be, it’s hard to deny that there look like there will be far more great prospects next year and staying a year won’t move McGary up all that much.

          This is how it is now. Gotta adjust.

          • jemblue

            They say that every year. A year ago, Burke “had” to leave because of the “loaded” 2013 Draft. After awhile it just sounds like a sales pitch to get these guys to go.

            At the end of the day, a guy either has NBA game or he doesn’t. Even if it’s a weak draft, if a guy doesn’t have what it takes to stick around, that first contract will be his only one. Right now Burke pretty looks like a finished product and should have a lengthy NBA career. I don’t really know about the other three. They may, but they’ve got to keep on developing their games.

  • Champswest

    Dylan, if we lose more than 2 players to early entry this year, will Beilein add or attempt to add another recruit in the 2013 class? Have you heard anything about walk ons for 2013? Next years class is going to be much smaller (if we lose 2 or more early entry + 5 seniors and only add 3) and will really look different.

    • mikey_mac

      The biggest weaknesses would be at 4 and 5, if we lost both GR3 and McGary. I’m not sure if any impact players are available that would consider UM, but if so, I would think Beilein would put on the full-court press to fill at least one scholarship. We’ve won a B1G championship with Morgan at the 5 before, so it’s really not a glaring weakness, but I think we got a pretty good taste of the potential in Beilein’s offensive system with an upgrade there.

  • Juan Gone

    Question RE: deadlines. With no “testing the waters” this year where guys declare but don’t hire an agent so they can return, do you expect people to be declaring as late as the end of the month? It seems to me that, players will have their reports back from the advisory committee by 4/15, but as long as they haven’t formally declared, they have basically two more weeks to decide. Is that accurate? And do you expect the U-M guys to wait as long as possible to make announcements??

    • Yes that’s accurate – and it seems smart. Say you announce next week and then blow your knee out. You are effectively screwed. Not sure kids will wait until April 28th, but they have that option and would be wise to take it. Although they can’t sign with an agent, etc.. So the sooner they do that, the more they can move forward to everything else. Balancing act.

      • Juan Gone

        Thanks. And frankly this makes sense, it gives them time to process the info they get back from the advisory board and make the best decision. It seems to me that only surefire, top half of the first round picks like the IU guys (and your guys) should be making declarations this early.

        There has been not even a whisper out of MSU about any of our guys, other than Izzo is inquiring on behalf of App, Payne & Harris, but knowing that a decision isn’t needed by next Tuesday I don’t expect Payne or Harris to say anything soon. I can’t see why Appling would go under any circumstance.

        • The only downside is that they can’t get much more info until they declare. Can’t workout, can’t sign an agent, can’t talk to teams… so if they are going, there’s not that much to gain by waiting.

          • Juan Gone

            Good point. I suppose a benefit is you may get to see who else declares early – but then again, they may also wait.

  • UM Hoops Fan

    There seem to be two popular misconceptions.

    (1) this is a “consensus” weak draft class and therefore it makes sense for everyone to leave. First, as others have said, this is said on an almost annual basis. Second, it only matters if scouts think you’re better than all the other guys who are entering the draft. Players aren’t drafted in some hypothetical world. If you want to be drafted in the first round, some teams has to grade you out better than everybody else left. Third, the “consensus” seems to be that there are no top-flight stars at the top. I haven’t seen much to suggest that there’s a significant difference in the 10-30 range. So if you’re going to be drafted 10 or below, it’s not clear this year is significantly different than most.

    (2) certain players lost a lot of money by staying a year, like Code Zeller. Surely, some players do lose money. Sullinger might be one, because of injury. But last year Zeller would not have been drafted above Davis, Gilchrist, or probably the next couple of guys. This year, he’s still likely to be a top 10 pick. So, at worst, he cost himself a couple spots in the draft, and who knows if this is true – people sometimes assume the best case would’ve happened in hindsight. Moreover, the difference between those two will likely pale in comparison to the importance of what Zeller gets as his 2nd contract. So, he loses one year of earning power (while getting some college credits and more exposure, to be sure) and perhaps a couple spots, but if he performs better his first two-four years in the NBA, he will get more money in the end. Joakim Noah is a great example of a guy who supposedly dropped by staying an extra year, but it may have helped because he was a bit borderline on attitude/performance his first couple years but really put it in gear and got a big second contract.
    This does not mean I think everyone should stay. It does mean, however, that some of the reasons people give are dubious. And it means that there may be a good reason for players to make sure that they’re likely to put a good foot forward their first couple years in the pros before teams decide to go in a different direction.

    • mikey_mac

      Absolute best case, the potential additional future earnings on a second contract are net neutral to the risk of injury in college PLUS the additional potential year of earnings in the NBA by coming out a year younger. Considering economic theory places significant value on a dollar now compared to a dollar later, a player would have to either expect to be able to raise his draft stock significantly and/or really want to be in college to pass up declaring. The relative strength of the draft class plays some role in assessing the likelihood of that raise in stock.

      • UM Hoops Fan

        Uh, no. You come across as a (bad) agent or runner. “Absolute best case” is net neutral? First, there’s risk of injury in the pros too — and you hear all the time talk from guys who went straight to the pros that “it’s not the years, it’s the miles,” so there might be loss of income on the back end. Also, while it’s certainly true that a dollar now is worth more than a dollar later, when you’re talking about a one year difference, the overall dollars coming in is much more important than the immediacy. It’s not always the case that players get second contracts, and surely some players lose money by waiting. But you back up your “always” talk with no evidence, and it just isn’t true — it’s not “always” and “absolutely” always better to leave early. You do a little better by saying that the relative strength of the draft “plays some role” in the thought process — but, again, you also have to consider where you’re going in this draft and how you might improve your stock regardless of relative draft class strength. It’s a case by case decision. Trey Burke almost assuredly made himself more money — and added tremendously to his longterm security — by staying another year.

        • mikey_mac

          Really? Risk of injury in the pros isn’t even close to the same thing … You get paid to rehab your injury in the pros.
          Also, the economic theory doesn’t specifically refer to inflation, like you seem to be implying by mentioning immediacy, it’s that today’s dollar is guaranteed, whereas next year’s is not (even if it may seem to be). Thus it is always better.

          Lastly, I make no assertion that a player should “always” declare for the draft … I mentioned two very distinct and valid reasons to stay. I’ll add a third — I like college basketball, so I want good players to stick around longer. Not very agent-ish there.

    • Adam St Patrick

      I don’t think it’s called a weak draft every year. The 2003 draft was loved in advance, as was, I think, ’07. The year the Pistons took Stuckey. It would be interesting to measure those expectations against reality.

      • jemblue

        I know that people loved the top of those draft classes, but did they think the draft as a whole was “deep”?

  • snoopblue

    It’s scary when you consider the people who these kids are getting their advice from. I’d really only take the opinions of the scouts/GM from teams like OKC, San Antonio, Indianapolis, few others seriously.

    • Well those other teams get slots in the draft too :-)

      • Juan Gone

        Just saw a Freep article that for MSU, none of the prospects (Appling, Payne, Harris & I assume Dawson) actually applied to the advisory board, but rather Izzo is working the phones himself to speak with NBA GMs & coaches. Which seems really strange to me, I don’t see what the players have to lose by going to the board, it’s not like Izzo can’t do his own homework too. Didn’t all 4 of your guys go to the advisory board?

        Hopefully this means everybody back in EL.

        • Rich74

          I would not put much stock in the Freep. My reaction, if it is true, is why the heck did they not get advice to go the advisory committee route. Sometime I wonder about conflict of interest.

      • mikey_mac

        And their money spends just as well.

        • snoopblue

          Yes, yes, very true. That was just a Joe Dumars frustration comment. Lol.

  • snoopblue

    I really feel like the hype around McGary and Robinson is just the scouts being on an NCAA Tournament high. You hope that the scouts and GM come down from this little high and give them realistic information based on the entire season they put in and not the miraculous 6 game run. I think they could both use another year to work on their bodies, improve on what they do well and develop other options to become more versatile. You see so many coaches who can recruit but can’t coach so their players don’t really get better. John Beilein (along with Bacari Alexander,PAY THE MAN!) can recruit AND develop as good as anyone, making it a good decision to stay. However, if these teams insist on throwing money at these young guys who haven’t reached their potential, they should go get it.

  • Rich74

    We would not have to obsess about all this if the NCAA, school presidents, and NBA could do what is right, in my opinion, and set the rules such that a kid could not leave college until age 20 and/or after his junior season. Seems to me it would be in every ones interest to have a more mature person going professional.

  • OPD

    Here’s the thing. If Trey stays he will probably be governor of Michigan one day.

  • Wayman Britt

    We know UM is going to lose at least one player to the NBA and maybe one or two more, but the question nobody seems to be asking is do we lose any assistant coaches this year?

  • ForeverBlue

    I really wish they would change this. The NBA, like the NFL, uses colleges to identify, audition and develop their players. In exchange it would seem like they could be hands off the college players for two years. If kids don’t want to go that route they should go to Europe or the NBDL to be prepped. Of course kids don’t seem to want to toil in these alternative gyms, they like the bright lights and exposure of big time college basketball and yet some complain about the money schools are making off their names. I find it really frustrating, I don’t blame a kid like McGary who is not only older but had no idea he would blow up like he did as a freshman. Of course he has to think about that, but in my perfect world, it wouldn’t even come up for a freshman.

  • JOHNNAVARREISMYHERO

    I would love to see them all stay, but Burke is likely gone. He could pull a Lewan and come back, doubtful, but we shall see.

    I would love for Tim Jr to come back and lead this team. I think he can fine tune his game a bit more, get that shot more consistent and work himself up into the first round next year.

    Mitch and GR3 need to come back. Both can get better and stronger and lead us back to the Final Four again. First round picks should be expected to get significant time from Day 1. I have no doubt they could hold their own, but another year in college would do them wonders. Get the playing time and get better, rather than run the risk of struggling early and lose the confidence of teams. The money will be there boys, but please come back and get better.

  • WolvernineinDallas

    Burke is gone and think it is a good choice for him. However, the others should stay and learn from what happened to Darius Morris. Darius is earning about $400K, he rarely plays and I bet he misses the attention he was getting while playing at UM. Also staying would’ve made him better, such as shooting. Tim, GRIII and McG should come back to hone their skills, and make an impact. The NBA will always be there.