2013 Big Ten Tournament Seeding Scenarios

Dylan Burkhardt
on

The 2013 Big Ten Tournament Bracket is finalized, view it here.

image

Four remaining games to the left, seeds based on results to the right. Michigan will be a 3 seed with a win over Indiana and a 5 seed with a loss.

View the 2013 Big Ten Tournament bracket here.

  • Hathachips

    In English, please.

    • rlcBlue

      Columns to the left of the black line represent the 5 games remaining. Rows in those columns represent scenarios with particular winners of those games. Rows to the right of the black line represent the seedings resulting from those scenarios.
      For example, the top row of the table is the scenario where Wisconsin beats MSU, Indiana beats Michigan, Northwestern beats MSU, Penn State beats Wisconsin, and Illinois beats OSU. The seeding that results is IU, UW, OSU, UM, MSU.

      • Yeah, sorry. Thought this was fairly self explanatory. Left side has all possible combinations for remaining games, right side has would be seeds based on those results.

        • Mith

          It IS self-explanatory. I don’t feel Hathachips is giving a full effort here.

          • David DeMember

            the chart basically says we need to beat IU ;)

  • Devin

    I love it, shows how much parity there is in the B1G this year. Imagine if we could have closed out the Penn St or Wisconsin games……

  • Devin

    I had said before the Conference season started that 4 or 5 B1G losses would still win the conference……. and you all laughed at me.

  • Devin

    What is the scenario 2nd from the bottom of the chart? The light blue that shows a tie between Wisconsin and OSU for 4th and 5th. How does that work? And how would they decide, a coin flip?

    • rlcBlue

      Three-way tie for 1st with Bucky and Brutus tied for 4th at 12-6.

      Because they split with each other and against the 1st place teams (2-2 for Wisconsin, 3-3 for OSU), the relevant tiebreaker would become their records against the 6th place finisher(s), which would be Illinois by itself, tied with Iowa, tied with Minnesota, or tied with both. Wisconsin is 2-0 vs Illinois, 1-1 vs Iowa, and 1-1 vs Minnesota. OSU would be 0-2 vs Illinois, 1-0 vs Minnesota, and 1-0 vs Iowa. So the Badgers would win the tiebreak unless 6th place were a three way tie. In case of a three-way tie, the relevant tiebreaker would then become their records against the 9th place team, Purdue, which OSU would win (1-0 vs 0-1).

  • Tony

    So basically, either beat IU, or hope that the MSU/Wisky loser also loses to NW/PSU this weekend or deal with playing Penn State on the first day

  • rlcBlue

    One last update on seeding scenaros before the Titlepalooza on Sunday.

    MSU’s win clinches the top seed for Indiana, and it gives Sparty Thursday off. Here are the cumulative KenPom probabilities for the 16 remaining scenarios presented in terms of each team’s chance of receiving each seed:

    Team P(2) P(3) P(4) P(5)
    OSU 84% 1% 9% 6%
    MSU 9% 54% 37% –
    UM 7% 37% 7% 49%
    UW – 8% 47% 45%

  • mountain52

    I do not doubt the truth of it but can someone explain to me why Indiana would automatically have the 1 seed over us if we beat them on Sunday?

    • rlcBlue

      Record vs. MSU – IU swept Sparty, while we split with them. If we win Sunday, our record will be identical to the Hoosiers on all the tiebreaks up until it reaches record vs. MSU (whether they be tied for first, in second outright, or tied for second).

  • rlcBlue

    And the Goophers take a loss at Purdue. How consistent of them. They may still play their way out of the NCAA tourney.

    Iowa finishes 9-9 in 6th. Illinois can tie them if they win in Columbus tomorrow, otherwise they finish tied for 7th with Purdue and Minnesota at 8-10. Nebraska finishes 5-13 in 10th. Northwestern can tie them with a win in East Lansing tomorrow, but it would have no effect on their seed.

    Seeds 6-12 with an Illinois win:

    Iowa
    Illinois
    Purdue
    Minnesota
    Nebraska
    Northwestern
    Penn State

    And with an Illinois loss:

    Iowa
    Purdue
    Illinois
    Minnesota
    Nebraska
    Northwestern
    Penn State

    So if UM receives the 5th seed, we open with Penn State on Thursday
    4th seed, open with the Wisconsin/Penn State winner on Friday.
    3rd seed, the Iowa/Northwestern winner on Friday.
    2nd seed, the Illinois/Nebraska winner on Friday