Five (too early) statistical takeaways through five games

Dylan Burkhardt
on

Michigan-77-Cleveland-State-47-20[1]
Photo: Dustin Johnston

It’s too early to draw any real conclusions after five games, but it’s safe enough to start to observe a few trends. Michigan has looked very good, good enough to move its Ken Pomeroy rating up from 12th to 6th. The Wolverines rank 4th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency thus far and have impressed against both mid-major and high-major competition alike. Here’s a look at five statistical observations, both on a team and individual level, through five games.

1. Inside upgrade quantified

Michigan’s upgraded talent, size and athleticism inside (and even on the wings) has been well documented. The question was whether a John Beilein-led team could begin to excel in areas where his previous teams simply haven’t. Through the first couple weeks of the season, it appears that Michigan is ready to adapt.

Michigan is the third best defensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing 81.1% of its opponents’ missed shots. The Wolverines are also doing a great job defending twos, holding opponents to 40.1% shooting inside the arc, but most importantly while avoiding foul trouble. Michigan’s free throw rate (FTA/FGA) allowed is a NCAA-best 16.8%.

Those numbers are especially impressive given that Michigan has played Pittsburgh and Kansas State. Pittsburgh is the nation’s fifth best 2-point shooting team and has rebounded over 40 percent of its misses against every team other than Michigan, when it only grabbed 18 percent. Kansas State isn’t a great shooting team but is the nation’s sixth best offensive rebounding team, grabbing over 40 percent of its misses against five other foes before just 27 percent against Michigan.

The Wolverines aren’t just beating up on the mid- and low-majors of the world (although they did that too), they’ve been able to impose their will against larger, more athletic and physical, teams.

2. Looking closer at Glenn Robinson III’s offense

Robinson is tied with Hardaway for playing the second most minutes on the roster and is averaging 12 points and eight rebounds per game early on. Using just 19% of Michigan’s posesssions, he’s scoring his buckets rather efficiently. When watching him in person, his offensive game appears almost effortless and he doesn’t seem to need the ball in his hands at all times to make plays.

Using early numbers from hoop-math.com, we can see some interesting patterns developing.

At the Rim 2pt jumpers 3pt jumpers
%FGA % Ast FG% %FGA % Ast FG% %FGA % Ast FG%
40% 75% 71% 33% 14% 50% 26% 100% 36%

Glenn Robinson’s offense around the basket tends to be created by others and all of his three point makes have been off the catch. Conversely, the majority of his two point jump shots have come off of the bounce.

The numbers make sense. Robinson is a great cutter and creates opportunistic offense. His finishing ability has already allowed him to create a number of backdoor cuts and even buckets off of out of bounds plays. He’s been selective with the three point shot, only taking the best shots that come off of his teammates’ passes.

In isolation situations, Robinson hasn’t appeared to be quite comfortable enough putting the ball on the floor and getting all the way to the rim. The numbers show that he’s settling for mid-range jumpers when left in isolation situations. The Michigan freshmen is shooting the ball well across the board but it’s worth watching whether he becomes more comfortable slashing to the basket off of the dribble going forward.

3. Nik Stauskas is a lethally efficient offensive player

Taking Ken Pomeroy’s oath into account, Nik Stauskas’s start to the season has still been ridiculous. Stauskas has an offensive rating of 157.5 (6th nationally) and the second best true shooting percentage (shooting with free throw production included) in the country at 82.7%.

Stauskas obviously won’t keep up his torrid shooting production but it’s extraordinarily impressive even for just a five game stretch. His offensive skill set is so versatile – he’s not just shooting open jumpers – that it’s exciting to think about what he’ll be able to accomplish as his game progresses.

Stauskas was named Big Ten Freshman of the Week after his strong performance in New York City and is likely to see his workload increase as the season wears on. It was interesting to hear John Beilein discuss running a “special” or set play for Stauskas in the second half against Kansas State when the Wildcats had trimmed the lead. That’s a lot of trust for a player in just his fifth collegiate game.

4. Undefeated non-conference slate possible?

Using Ken Pomeroy’s projections, Michigan’s chances of running the table with an undefeated non-conference slate are up to 53%. If Michigan beats North Carolina State those figures would climb to 64%.

Part of that is because Michigan has impressed early on but the Wolverines’ non-conference slate has also disappointed somewhat. West Virginia is is now 1-3 with losses to Gonzaga, Davidson and Oklahoma. Arkansas lost to Arizona State and Wisconsin in Las Vegas and has tough games remaining against Syracuse and Oklahoma before traveling to Ann Arbor. North Carolina State lost to Oklahoma State, by 20, and was nearly upset by by UNC-Asheville. That slow start removes some of the luster from Michigan’s marquee Big Ten-ACC Challenge match-up on Tuesday.

Michigan’s non-conference schedule will hold up – three neutral court games, five major conference opponents and a road game – but is unlikely to be regarded as an elite schedule nationally when all is said and done.

5. The Beilein Break

Michigan isn’t going to be mistaken as a completely uptempo team anytime soon. The Wolverines are still averaging 62.4 possessions per game this season, 326th in the country. But that doesn’t mean you won’t continue to hear opposing coaches praise Michigan’s transition game.

The transition game has stemmed more from defensive rebounding than creating turnovers. Michigan has forced turnovers on just 14.3% of opponents’ possessions – the worst forced turnover rate among high-major programs this season. Using data from Hoop-Math.com, 15% of Michigan’s initial shots on offensive possessions come within the first 10 seconds of the shotclock after a rebound. Michigan’s effective field goal percentage in those situations is a stellar 62%.

There have been some signs of struggle in the half court offense and those numbers are also relevant when breaking down Michigan’s offense. 47% of Michigan’s offensive possessions come after an opponent made shot and between 11 and 35 seconds into the shotclock. The Wolverines have a still productive but noticeably lower effective field goal percentage of 51% in those situations.

  • Indiana_Matt

    I think this is the first time since the spring of 1993 that I have surveyed the other teams in the AP poll and honestly say I think we can play with anyone in the country.

  • Indiana_Matt

    And as a Ball State alumni who’s Cardinals got flattened by an IU team that pressed full-court throughout the second half when leading by 40, I can’t wait for the Wolverines to go into Assembly Hall and take them down.

  • BlueBear_E

    I expect McGary’s minutes to eventually double or come close to it. When that happens our forced turnover % will go up, and the “Beilein Break” will become even more effective. Another poster pointed out that we had a lot of deflections and near steals out of the 1-3-1. The three freshmen will just get better in that defense as they continue to fine-tune their positioning and learn when they can take risks. I love Trey, THJr, GRIII, Nik, and Mitch in the 1-3-1 zone.

    • http://www.umhoops.com/ Dylan Burkhardt

      Love the 1-3-1 with that lineup. Of course the worry is that you take away from defensive rebounding ability by trying to gamble to create turnovers. Should be interesting.

    • bballkdp@sbcglobal.net

      I wouldve liked to see what McGary could do in the post during this non conference season. He has posted up on a few occasions and had his guy pinned calling for the ball and it wasnt given to him.

  • kainkitizen

    The numbers are very impressive for the first 5 games of the season. Lets take a look at the next 5 games with comparing and contrasting the numbers. The first 5 games have been fun and exciting to watch. Tuesday Night should give us more answers to how the season will be for the team. I’m waiting for GR3 to throw down one of his monster dunks that he displayed in high school. It’s looking like a very merry basketball season for us.

  • Steve2081

    Just bought my tickets for the Michigan/Bradley game in Peoria next Saturday!

  • scott

    Live in NY.. can’t wait for Dec 15…

  • gpsimms

    That hoop-math site is pretty awesome

  • Mattski

    Yeah. When we get a little more organized in the half court, Burke with everyone else. . . goodnight! I had a feeling Stauskas was going to be special but the guy is off the charts. In fact, we are a threat from every spot on the floor, players one through seven, at least. Ridiculous.

  • mikey_mac

    Dylan, I think you misread the stats at Hoop-Math … The half-court struggles are from Michigan’s opponents, not Michigan. UM is holding their opponents to the 39% eFG% in the half-court. UM’s eFG% in the half-court after an opponent score is 51% — not bad.

    • http://www.umhoops.com/ Dylan Burkhardt

      Good catch. Looks like I read the wrong table. 51% is still a noticeable decrease from Michigan’s uptempo efficiency though.

      • mikey_mac

        To be fair, it would be hard for it not to be a noticeable decrease compared to the lofty fast-break efficiency.
        The more interesting comparison is to last year’s half-court numbers … With our added versatility and weapons, we’re still actually a bit behind last year in the half-court. Definitely something to keep an eye on.