Saturday Night Bubble Notes

Dylan Burkhardt
on
Laval Lucas-Perry DrivesIf you missed my post-game, you can find it here. This is a recap of the bubble situation and what other games to follow this weekend.

The Resume

  • Record: 19-12 (9-9)
  • RPI: 40 (all RPI numbers as of 5:30 PM)
  • SOS: 9
  • RPI Top 50: 6-9
  • RPI 50-100: 4-2
  • RPI 100+: 7-1
  • Quality wins: UCLA (neutral), Duke, Illinois, Purdue
  • Bad losses: Iowa
  • Last 10: 5-5

Top 50 Wins. Michigan’s win over Minnesota was their sixth against the RPI top 50. Here is the list of the other teams with six top 50 wins, impressive company to say the least:

Pitt, Duke, UNC, UConn, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Kansas, Louisville, Xavier, Villanova, Illinois, Purdue, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Northwestern

Tiebreakers. Redwings8831 did a great job in the comments of breaking down the tiebreakers for the Big Ten tournament. Michigan can get either the 6 seed which means they will face Indiana or the 7 seed which means they will face Iowa. Iowa and Indiana have both been hot lately even if it hasn’t translated into wins and I don’t look forward to facing either of them. The tournament is in Indianapolis which is another advantage for the Hoosiers. The good thing is that Michigan gets put in the bottom of the bracket where they will face either Illinois or Purdue if they advance to quarterfinals.

Here are the eight scenarios with Michigan’s seed. For a recap of each scenario read the full post in the comments.

A: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State win. – Seven Seed
B: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern win. – Six Seed
C: Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State win. – Seven Seed
D: Wisconsin, Purdue, Northwestern win. – Six Seed
E: Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State win. – Six Seed
F: Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern win. – Seven Seed
G: Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State win. – Six Seed
H: Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern win. – Seven Seed

Other Teams. So who else has played themselves in or out of the dance this weekend? Who else should you root for? It wasn’t a perfect day on the bubble but Michigan made a statement. They should jump a number of teams in Monday’s bracketology updates and be securely in the dance, for now. A couple teams on the edge hurt themselves today and a couple kept themselves alive.

Already Played (Sorted by RPI as of 5:30 PM):

  • Oklahoma State (27): Lost at Oklahoma but their RPI is very strong and I think they are still in.
  • Texas A&M (28): A huge home win over Missouri probably puts A&M in the dance.
  • Creighton (38): Creighton escaped last night but they lost by 23 today to Illinois State. They were in the at-large talk but that is bad way to go out.
  • South Carolina (46): USC beat Georgia and they got 1 top50 win back when UK got back into the RPI top 50. Still 1-5 against the RPI top 50 is not impressive.
  • Florida (47): Beat Kentucky but they need more work. RPI of 47 but only 2-7 against the RPI top 50.
  • Boston College (54): Squeaked by Georgia Tech to keep their bubble hopes alive. BC finished 9-7 in the ACC and they are probably in.
  • Maryland (57): Maryland lost to Virginia and that probably ends their at large chances without a huge run in the ACC tournament thanks to their 7-9 conference record.
  • New Mexico (61): Big win at Wyoming keeps their alive.
  • Rhode Island (62): Backbreaking home loss to UMass, their RPI falls into the sixties and their at large chances are pretty much over.
  • Penn State (63): Double overtime loss at Iowa, PSU is 10-8 in conference but will their dreadful OOC schedule come back to bite them?
  • Kentucky (80): The Florida loss puts them out; RPI of 80 and a 4 game losing streak to finish the year.

Tonight:

  • Stanford at Arizona, 7:30 PM ET
  • Duquesne at Dayton, 8PM ET
  • UNLV at San Diego State, 10 PM ET — Loser is in bad shape but San Diego State would be in more trouble with a loss.

Tomorrow:

  • Virginia Tech at Florida State, 2PM ET
  • Northwestern at Ohio State, 5PM ET
  • Indiana at Wisconsin, 7 PM ET

I don’t know how we want the Big Ten to shake out. I think Michigan’s resume stacks up better than most of the other teams that they would be tied with at 9-9 so the biggest concern is seeding in the Big Ten Tournament I suppose. Could the Big Ten really get 9 in? 8? I think 8 might be the number and I think 7 should be almost a guarantee. Maybe I’m seeing through Maize and Blue glasses but the Big Ten teams have impressive resumes. I also might have missed a game/team or two so let me know in the comments.

  • Redwings8831

    Ohio State: 31
    Northwestern: 30

    11 minutes left in the second half.
    Lauderdale has a sprained shoulder and is questionable to return.

  • SWolv

    Lauderdale came back and played

  • Redwings8831

    Ohio State: 41
    Northwestern: 41

    5 minutes left in the second half.

  • SWolv

    We want Davidson to win I presume? Because Charleston would not make it otherwise and Davidson could?

  • Redwings8831

    Ohio State: 48
    Northwestern: 45

    1:52 left.

  • Redwings8831

    Ohio State: 48
    Northwestern: 47

    46.2 seconds left.

  • Redwings8831

    Ohio State: 50
    Northwestern: 47

    10 seconds left.

  • Redwings8831

    Ohio State: 52
    Northwestern: 47

    Final.

  • Redwings8831

    Down to two scenarios:

    Wisconsin Wins:
    2. Illinois: 11-7
    3. Purdue: 11-7
    4. Wisconsin: 10-8
    5. Ohio State: 10-8
    6. Penn State: 10-8
    7. Michigan: 9-9
    8. Minnesota: 9-9
    9. Northwestern: 8-10

    Notes: Illinois has the head to head over Purdue for #2. Wisconsin is 3-0 against the other two, Ohio State is 1-1 and Penn State is 0-3. Michigan has the head to head over Minnesota.

    Indiana Wins:
    2. Illinois: 11-7
    3. Purdue: 11-7
    4. Ohio State: 10-8
    5. Penn State: 10-8
    6. Michigan: 9-9
    7. Minnesota: 9-9
    8. Wisconsin: 9-9
    9. Northwestern: 8-10

    Notes: Illinois has the head to head tiebreaker over Purdue for #2 and Ohio State has the head to head tiebreaker over Penn State for #4. For the three way tie for #6 to #8, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are all 2-2 against each other. The next tiebreaker is record against the first place team and so on. None beat Michigan State, so it would go to the record against Illinois. All three teams were 1-1 vs Illinois, so it would go to record against Purdue. Michigan beat Purdue once and the others didn’t, so they would be #6. Head to head would then be used for Minnesota and Wisconsin, which Minnesota has.

  • rlc

    With a tournament in Indianapolis, I prefer playing Iowa and Illinois to Indiana and Purdue. I like neutral sites that are actually neutral…

  • jgunnip

    Your BTT schedule.

    Thursday
    12:00pm Minnesota vs Northwestern
    2:30pm Michigan vs Iowa
    5:00pm Penn St vs Indiana

    Friday
    12:00pm Michigan St vs Minnesota/Wisconsin
    2:30pm Wisconsin vs Ohio St
    6:30pm Illinois vs Michigan/Iowa
    9:00pm Purdue vs Penn St/Indiana

  • Justin C

    I think N Carolina is the last team I’d want to face, especially playing near their homecourt. They have size and shooters, which is really not something we can handle. I’d rather play Pitt than UNC.