If you missed my post-game, you can find it here. This is a recap of the bubble situation and what other games to follow this weekend.
The Resume
- Record: 19-12 (9-9)
- RPI: 40 (all RPI numbers as of 5:30 PM)
- SOS: 9
- RPI Top 50: 6-9
- RPI 50-100: 4-2
- RPI 100+: 7-1
- Quality wins: UCLA (neutral), Duke, Illinois, Purdue
- Bad losses: Iowa
- Last 10: 5-5
Top 50 Wins. Michigan’s win over Minnesota was their sixth against the RPI top 50. Here is the list of the other teams with six top 50 wins, impressive company to say the least:
Pitt, Duke, UNC, UConn, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Kansas, Louisville, Xavier, Villanova, Illinois, Purdue, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, and Northwestern
Tiebreakers. Redwings8831 did a great job in the comments of breaking down the tiebreakers for the Big Ten tournament. Michigan can get either the 6 seed which means they will face Indiana or the 7 seed which means they will face Iowa. Iowa and Indiana have both been hot lately even if it hasn’t translated into wins and I don’t look forward to facing either of them. The tournament is in Indianapolis which is another advantage for the Hoosiers. The good thing is that Michigan gets put in the bottom of the bracket where they will face either Illinois or Purdue if they advance to quarterfinals.
Here are the eight scenarios with Michigan’s seed. For a recap of each scenario read the full post in the comments.
A: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State win. – Seven Seed
B: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern win. - Six Seed
C: Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State win. – Seven Seed
D: Wisconsin, Purdue, Northwestern win. – Six Seed
E: Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State win. – Six Seed
F: Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern win. – Seven Seed
G: Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State win. – Six Seed
H: Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern win. – Seven Seed
Other Teams. So who else has played themselves in or out of the dance this weekend? Who else should you root for? It wasn’t a perfect day on the bubble but Michigan made a statement. They should jump a number of teams in Monday’s bracketology updates and be securely in the dance, for now. A couple teams on the edge hurt themselves today and a couple kept themselves alive.
Already Played (Sorted by RPI as of 5:30 PM):
- Oklahoma State (27): Lost at Oklahoma but their RPI is very strong and I think they are still in.
- Texas A&M (28): A huge home win over Missouri probably puts A&M in the dance.
- Creighton (38): Creighton escaped last night but they lost by 23 today to Illinois State. They were in the at-large talk but that is bad way to go out.
- South Carolina (46): USC beat Georgia and they got 1 top50 win back when UK got back into the RPI top 50. Still 1-5 against the RPI top 50 is not impressive.
- Florida (47): Beat Kentucky but they need more work. RPI of 47 but only 2-7 against the RPI top 50.
- Boston College (54): Squeaked by Georgia Tech to keep their bubble hopes alive. BC finished 9-7 in the ACC and they are probably in.
- Maryland (57): Maryland lost to Virginia and that probably ends their at large chances without a huge run in the ACC tournament thanks to their 7-9 conference record.
- New Mexico (61): Big win at Wyoming keeps their alive.
- Rhode Island (62): Backbreaking home loss to UMass, their RPI falls into the sixties and their at large chances are pretty much over.
- Penn State (63): Double overtime loss at Iowa, PSU is 10-8 in conference but will their dreadful OOC schedule come back to bite them?
- Kentucky (80): The Florida loss puts them out; RPI of 80 and a 4 game losing streak to finish the year.
Tonight:
- Stanford at Arizona, 7:30 PM ET
- Duquesne at Dayton, 8PM ET
- UNLV at San Diego State, 10 PM ET — Loser is in bad shape but San Diego State would be in more trouble with a loss.
Tomorrow:
- Virginia Tech at Florida State, 2PM ET
- Northwestern at Ohio State, 5PM ET
- Indiana at Wisconsin, 7 PM ET
I don’t know how we want the Big Ten to shake out. I think Michigan’s resume stacks up better than most of the other teams that they would be tied with at 9-9 so the biggest concern is seeding in the Big Ten Tournament I suppose. Could the Big Ten really get 9 in? 8? I think 8 might be the number and I think 7 should be almost a guarantee. Maybe I’m seeing through Maize and Blue glasses but the Big Ten teams have impressive resumes. I also might have missed a game/team or two so let me know in the comments.
Michigan is first four out in jerry palms CBS sportsline… What is this guy seeing that EVERYONE else isnt. I feel michigan punched there ticket when they beat minny.
If you mean this bracket: http://www.cbssports.com/colle.....y/11233762
It was done before today’s games I believe.
If you go to the College basketball front page on cbs sportsline and put you cursor over “Palms Projections: upset shake up the field” its says it was updated 3:15 Pm today.
Updated March 7
With the big boys having the day off, there are only a couple of minor changes. Tennessee-Martin was upset in the Ohio Valley semifinals. Morehead State and Austin Peay — two of my favorite school names — will face off for that title Saturday night.
Also, my pick to win the Atlantic Sun lost. Belmont fell to East Tennessee State, my original choice to win this league. The Buccaneers will play top-seeded Jacksonville for that championship Saturday.
Finally, congratulations to Cornell. The Big Red became the first team to secure a spot in the NCAA tournament by winning the Ivy League title Friday night.
That’s the text at the top… Seems to be talking about Friday’s games to me.
Also on The Bracket Matrix 9 websites updated there brackets today and only 3 of 9 has us making the tournament. Im very puzzled as to way there are so many people that think michigan still need to do more. Our RPI and SOS are better than most bubble teams out there.
- Cinci’s loss at home to Seton Hall ends their hopes.
- Miami stayed alive by beating NC State but they need a run in the ACC Tourney.
- Kansas State stayed alive by beating Colorado but they also need a run in the Big 12 Tourney.
- Georgetown beat Depaul in an ugly 48-40 game at home… if they make it to the Big East finals they may have a chance (4 Top 25 wins).
- Auburn is officially on the bubble now after thrashing LSU, but they’ll probably need to at least make it to the SEC finals to have a chance.
Brackets are not updated after this win today, I believe we will be in most people’s field.
I believe what dylan is trying to say is that if people updated there brackets, they most likely only changed the teams that either made it already by winning there conference or a team that they had in didn’t when there conference. I dont think they went through it all… that would be pointless to do in the middle of the day on Saturday.
Ryan and Chad, yeah i hope so…. i was just excited to see michigan in different websites brackets… and as i was looking i was noticing nobody was giving michigan love. You guys must be right they must of just changed the records or just the teams that already made it into the tournament. Thanks for the imput
Also want Butler to win tonight in the Horizon tournament otherwise they would take up an atlarge spot – they are up 4 at halftime on Wright State..
Yea, Michigan4Life… If they updated today, that means this morning as in BEFORE any games today. They would wait until all the games are over today. Most of the better bracketology sites will release new brackets on Monday. That is when the situation will be very clear, only conference tournaments to go. I would expect Lunardi to make an appearance on GameDay or SportsCenter tonight though and give an update.
Here is a site I found, which gives the chance of getting a bid by percentage. It was last updated on Thursday night. At that time, we had a 55% chance of getting it. I’m waiting to see how much that goes up after today.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm
Thank you for the help Dylan.
Nice site Redwings, CrashingtheDance also has a percentage system in place (if you goto a team’s profile page). Everything they do is based on machine learning/AI and it is kind of cool to look at. They did pretty well last year and I think it is at least interesting to get a different take. There are some weird spots though, like Georgetown still in the field.
Any bracket with Minnesota and PSU in and Michigan out is a joke. After the win today, we jump Minnesota and Penn State’s resume is not as good as ours. Unless only 5 B10 teams make it, we are in. At this point I think it is almost insulting to call us a bubble team.
I agree Brick… I feel the exact same way.
South Carolina, Auburn, Florida? Come on… Those team’s resumes are miles behind Michigan’s. I’m talking about GameDay, they just seem to want to put every team in the dance.
I was just watching that too Dylan. 128 teams! Add another weekend! I think the unanimous vote was that Michigan is in and Minnesota is in trouble. I still think that if we drop to Iowa or Indiana, we could be in trouble. But, it appears that if you give Beilein a week, his teams will win.
I hope we dont turn into cinncy 2005-2006 rpi 40 sos 5 and didnt get in. http://realtimerpi.com/2005-2006/rpi_217_Men.html there resume looks close to ours. I feel that we should make it but a loss first round in the BTT would be a killer. I hope michigan can just win at least 1 game in the BTT.
I remember seeing a stat somewhere comparing our record when we have more than 3 days off between games. If I remember, we only lost one (maybe two games) with that much time off between games.
the more teams they call bubble teams the more games they can call “a game with bubble implications” to help their ratings
I beleive that every site will have us in. Palm’s site has us first out before today, and we will move in ahead of them. Plus teams we have beaten (UCLA) also picked up wins while teams ahead of us lost, giving us a real shot to have an RPI in the thirties, which would put us at a lock. Plus, with the Iowa win, they should be close to a top 100 team, which would wipe out the bad loss status
Some of the mid-majors have already started their tournament, while others begin soon. The good news for us is this year the only mid-majors that seem to be locked in for sure are Memphis and Butler. Memphis hasn’t lost a C-USA game in a long, long time. Butler is in a rough game with Wright State now, but remember Butler is playing their first game of their tournament in the Horizon League semifinals, so they only have to win 2 games and both are on their home court.
Utah State is probably in, but a bad loss can really hurt them due to a very weak SOS. Not sure what their RPI is or if they have any quality wins.
Davidson, Creighton, and Siena are the only other mid-majors that likely have a shot at an at-large if they don’t win their conference tournament. Creighton already lost today and it’ll be considered a bad loss, so they might not even make the field of 65. Siena played a slightly harder schedule than most mid-majors (I think), but didn’t pick up any quality wins. Davidson lost some games along the way and a bad loss in the conference tournament could possibly knock them out. St. Mary’s is another team I forgot to mention. Patty Mills is back, so we’ll have to see what they end up doing in their conference tournament.
Overall, mid-major tournament upsets aren’t scaring me right now like they would in a normal year. Many of those conferences are down. If Butler can hang on in four minutes they’ll be one win away from their conference tournament championship. I really can’t see Memphis losing to anyone. UAB is probably the only team that’ll give them a game, but I still can’t see Memphis losing. The Creighton situation is hard to tell because of the bad loss they suffered today. Northern Iowa is also in their conference and has been mentioned in at-large discussions, so if they win the conference tournament I have no problem with that.
our SOS justs changed
its now at 10
Thank you Butler.
Someone on our message board on rivals.com posted that they sent an e-mail to Bill Martin suggesting some sort of event at Crisler next Sunday for the selection show, assuming we win Thursday, and are safely in. I think it would be a great idea and a large amount of people would show up.
Butler goes for Horizon League title against UWGB/Cleveland State winner at home on Tuesday at 9pm (Eastern) on ESPN. Expect a close game no matter which team they get, but I think Butler wins a close one.
Warren Nolan has us at 41… http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2009/rpi
IX, you forgot Gonzaga. They’re in whether they win the WCC tournament or not. We definitely want the Zags to win, or at worst to lose to St Mary’s in the final. If a third team gets the automatic bid, then the pressure on the bubble will build…
Big Ten gets 8. Unless Northwestern can pull off a win at purdue (check), osu, and get 2 in the tourney.
If they don’t look at what conference teams are from I would think that 9 B10 teams get in. Look at these resumes.
Penn State
3-1 vs top 25 (At MSU, At Illinois, Illinois)
3-8 vs 25-50 (Minny, Purdue, Mich all at home)
1-0 vs 50-75 (northwestern at home)
Worst losses are to RPI 48, and iowa
6-9 vs RPI top 50
10-8 in big ten play
5-5 on the road
SOS 111
Minny
2-3 vs top 25 (Louisville neutral, Illinois)
3-3 vs 25-50 (Wisonsin X 2, Ohio State)
3-2 vs 50-100 (Penn St., Northwestern, ND state)
5-6 vs top 50
8-8 vs top 100
Worst loss is at northwestern, penn state
4-6 in away games
SOS 43
Northwestern
CBS doesn’t have them on the bubble but they have key wins
AT MSU, Florida State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio State, At Purdue
If I’m not mistaken all of those teams are in the top 50 RPI, which gives them just as many top 50 wins as us.
worst loss is to iowa and stanford
SOS 64
They win at ohio state and 2 in the tournament they could have a real shot. Compare those resumes with South Carolina (1 top 50 win); SOS 83, Providence (3-7 vs top 50); SOS 56.
Providence also has 13 wins vs 100 or higher, which includes 6 of their 10 big east wins. They are 5-12 against top 100 competition. Worst loss at home to Northeastern. How are they even in consideration????
South Carolina is 13-1 vs 100 or higher. 0-4 vs top 50 (which might change now bc of florida’s win today), 7-3 vs 50-100.
Commentators keep saying it’s about who you beat. If thats the case the Big Ten should have 5 locks, 3 that should be in (Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State) in that order, and 1 with work to do. I don’t really understand how Northwestern isn’t getting serious consideration (other than the amount of big ten teams on the bubble). If they win at OSU they have 7 top 50 wins, which is more than us, and they finish .500 in the conference, just like us. They also have a shit ton of close losses, including to us in OT, Illinois by 1, Purdue by 2.
I know getting 9 of 11 teams in the tournament is a ridiculous percentage, but I think if ESPN would show northwestern’s resume with almost anyone else’s they would say that it is VERY competitive, if not better than most others on the bubble. My question is, why are they not being seriously considered?
Northeastern about to lose to Towson, RPI #229. Hopefully it doesn’t knock them out of the Top 100…
Yikes, that’s a bit scary Giddings.
Pretty much everyone has assumed OSU is safely in, but per Warren Nolan, their RPI is only 38, and if they lose at home to Northwestern tomorrow, they might find themselves in trouble. That’s definitely a game to keep an eye on.
Well Northeastern’s season is over, they’re definitely going to drop but 19 spots seems like a lot. It’ll be close.
As silly as it sounds, I feel a lot more confident with 10 Top 100 wins than I do with 9.
Yea, I don’t think they will drop 19 spots, especially being on a neutral site. We’ll see though. Just pulled up their profile and it looks they have been playing some crappy hoops down the stretch.
Guys, I wouldn’t worry too much abot Northeastern…it would have been a nice feather in the cap to have them dance, but at the end of the day, UM has put itself in a very solid position.
I’m not sure if I would go as far as saying UM is in no matter what…but it is pretty close. A solid performance on Thursday should sow it up.
A lot depends on what happens prior to Thursday. The picture will start to clear up…hard part would be losing on Thursday and having to hope teams like Miami, Maryland, the MWC teams, PSU/Minny, etc get rolling in the conference tourneys. Having to hope a team like Providence loses is not the position UM wants. They have a chance..a very good chance to keep up with the Jones’ in CBB and that is what they need to do.
Still think barring a crazy turn of events over the course of the next week UM should be okay even with an early exit…but next weekend would be excruciating if that did occur.
Here are the teams left out of the dance in the last 10 years with 6+ RPI top 50 wins…
Crieghton 06, SWMo St 05, LSU 04 (lost 6 of their last 7), Michigan 99 (losing record)
A couple of mid majors, one pretty good choke job, and a Michigan team with a losing record.
Again…past history is a good frame of reference, but I think it is more important to thoroughly examine who UM is going up against and how the resumes compare.
That is why, at present UM appears comfy, but since there is still so much hoosp to be played over the next 7 days, it is hard to know where UM will be positioned. By Thursday, UM’s position in the tournament could be rock solid or it could me more tenuous.
Past history won’t dictate anything…how teams like Providence, Maryland, So. Carolina, Florida, Butler, MICHIGAN, Minnesota, PSU, etc perform.
I would rather play Iowa, than Indiana, they are a dangerous team, not even kidding. Dylan you do a great job with this site man.
No doubt Tom. The next week leading up to Selection Sunday will be fun and I have no doubt that Beilein will have the team ready to go versus Iowa/Indiana.
Whew, new RPI is out and Northeastern only drops to 87.
SDSU about to beat UNLV at home… the MWC is so hard to figure out. The good news is that these teams will play again in the first round of the MWC Tourney, and if SDSU can’t beat UNLV again they are probably out. UNLV has a very strong resume despite a subpar RPI, they’ll get a lot of love for beating Louisville at Louisville.
At first I thought 4 bids from the MWC was crazy but now it’s looking like 5 is possible…
Lunadrdi just did his last four in on Midnight Madness. Penn State was there, Michigan and Minnesota were not. I don’t remember if he said he had Minnesota in or not. But he has Michigan higher than the last four in which is good.
I would like to thank Duke Vitale, Jay Bias (Bilas) for there love today on ESPN. Also Doug Gottlieb showed UM the love they deserve.
Dang….even Jay Williams said there in the tourney.
Tim Doyle on the BTN was going nuts over the UM win today. He’s all over Michigan going dancing. He even said get out the disco ball and dance shoes……He is a nut.
Tim Doyle and Gene Keady believe UM is in even if they lose in the first round of the BT tournament. Man, this feels so good after all these years!
Dylan, I just want to say thank you to you for doing a job that no one else wanted to do while we were the absolute taint of basketball. I’m glad that now that we are good and hopefully tournament bound that you are getting the props that you deserve for doing such a great job, but you started this blog amongst the worst season in the last ten years of Michigan basketball (which have been mostly ugly) and for that I, the rest of the readers of this blog, and the Michigan community owe you. I only hope that you continue your great work after you graduate. Thanks.
just a heads up… I know someone said they would rather play Iowa than Indiana, but that’s crazy. Indiana has won only 1 game for a reason. If Northwestern were to be Ohio State, both would finish 9-9 and Michigan would actually get the 6 seed over Ohio State. The tie-breaker is head to head cumulative of the tied teams.
Michigan would be 4-2
Ohio State would be 3-3
Northwestern would be 3-3
Minnesota would be 2-4
Therefore, I think we should be rooting for northwestern.
Wow I would love to see Vitale & Bilas giving M the props.
That idea of a selection event at Crisler Sunday night sounds cool.
If they don’t approve that, it’ll have to be a party at Dylan’s place.
LOL
We are in no question, I think we need to work on improving our seed now. As of now I think we are probobly about a 10 seed
OK RPI people… How are Minnesota, Creighton, and Temple ahead of us? We are back down to 42. I don’t quite follow that, maybe I’m missing something. Creighton is 3 spots ahead of us but only .0011 “RPI points” ahead.
http://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2009/rpi
I actually would rather be an 11 or 12. It has been pointed out several times, but may be worth restating. If you are an 11 or 12, you don’t have to play a 1 or 2 seed until the sweet 16. If you are anywhere from 7-10 you get a much more winnable first game only to play a top ten caliber team. The odds of making the sweet 16 are much better as an 11 or 12. I would love to see Michigan as an 11, they would be very dangerous in that spot.
dylan, I have a crazy stat: In the BTT the #10 seed is 7-4 all-time in first round games against the #7 seed. That’s pretty odd. In contrast the #11 seed is 1-10 with illinois’ magical run in 1999.
Hmmm, maybe we do want the 6 seed. I am still scared of Indiana in Indianapolis though. I really don’t like either of the match-ups but that is why you play the game. I think we are playing very good basketball right now.
Also, RE: Northwestern. If they win today they deserve some serious at large talk. That would be their 7th top50 win and put them at .500 in the conference. I don’t see how you justify taking a South Carolina team with 0/1 top50 wins over NW with 7. I know nine sounds crazy but the numbers don’t lie. The politics can lie though…
ch125 – if minnesota or psu lose their first game in the tourney i think they would be in serious trouble. definitely not sold that 8 teams are gonna go.
I think I’d rather face Indiana because if I recall correctly, IU hasn’t faired so well in the B10 Tournament in recent years, I may be wrong. Also, I don’t recall any of Crean’s Marquette teams doing well in Big East Tournament appearances. Iowa has been competitive with everyone the last few weeks. They beat Wisconsin earlier in the season, defeated us and PSU at their place, and should’ve knocked off O$U. Cyrus Tate is back and whether he’s been doing good since his return or not, I want no part of him.
If we do in fact make the NCAA Tournament, I would love to have the 12 seed. There isn’t too much of a difference between an 11 or 12 seed, especially since the committee can actually move teams w/in one line of their actual seeding to avoid regular season matchups or place teams better geographically. Every year ESPN, CBS, and other sports stations love talking about which 5/12 matchup is the most likely to produce an upset. You know everyone will be picking us over just about any 5 seed, especially if we look decent in the B10 Tournament. That’ll create a lot of hype for whoever we face. Also, if we go on to win that game, that will do wonders for the program by showing we deserve to be mentioned with all the other high quality programs out there. Right now, my guess is we would be a 10, maybe 11. Win Thursday and we’ll definetly be at least a 10. If we get to Saturday in the B10 Tournament I think we can easily end up with an 8/9 seed. Whatever happens, this will all sort itself out over the next week.
7 days until Selection Sunday!
At this point, even if Michigan loses to Iowa, how would we get knocked out? We’re safely in, let some terrible team with fewer big wins get knocked out. Would you take a 4th or 5th SEC team ahead of Michigan? A 3rd or 4th Mountain West team? A 7-9 Maryland or Va. Tech team? A St. Mary’s team that sucked even with Patrick Mills?
That being said, Iowa is a terrible road team. I highly doubt Bawinkel can light up the nets at Conseco.
I’m more worried about Jake Kelly, that kid is pretty good. He had some lucky shots go off the glass and in yesterday, but he’s still a damn good player. If we do get Iowa in round 1, as long as we contain Kelly and don’t let him have a game like he did against PSU yesterday we’ll be fine.
St. Mary’s didn’t suck with Patty Mills. That’s a dumb thing to say.
I agree AG2. Right now I see us as 6th in the conference (in terms of selection) ahead of PSU and MINN. Since we are talking about 8+ teams getting in I think we are really safe.
However, I think a loss to IU would look terrible. And having watched their last two games vs. MSU and PSU they not only gave them good games, they looked pretty solid too. Now maybe Wisco we’ll destroy them today, but we’ll see, I think they could be pretty dangerous.
I’m 100% confident that we are in. Now all we have to do is make the final four and we can keep our streak of consecutive decades with at least one final four appearance dating back to the 1960s!
I know, I know, I don’t expect that. But at the beginning of the season I thought we’d win 17 games and be in the NIT.
Palm of CBS just updated his bracketology:
http://www.cbssports.com/colle.....y/11233762
He placed us in Dayton, which would draw a lot of UM fans. Many other projections out there have us heading out to Portland or Boise. Could care less where we end up, just want to be in it!
IX: Palm is still a little harsh: ” Michigan, on the other hand, picked up a huge win at Minnesota. If the Wolverines don’t tank early in the conference tournament, they have a decent chance of getting into the field. ”
Doesn’t sound much a like a lock.
We are certainly a nightmare match up for non-big ten opponents in the big dance with the potential for hot shooting, star power in Manny and Sims, and a defense that you almost never encounter.
If say we are 12 seed I bet we are by far the most common upset pick.
I want to be an 8 or 9 seed in Greensboro!!! I want CAROLINA!!!!! ok, I’ll be honest, I have a good chance at Greensboro tickets and want to see our boys play in person. Still, UM/UNC or a 3rd UM/Duke? Could be interesting. And if I can see 3-4 UM shirts in a Wal-mart here in Salisbury, NC population 30k, I’ll bet we can put a good number in the stands in Greensboro!
I don’t think we can feel at all safe that we are IN even with a first-round loss. Most brackets will have us just barely in now, and while other bubble teams will do something impressive next week, a first-round loss would drop us at least a few spots (possibly from last four in to OUT).
I’ve noted a maize-and-blue colored glasses tendency of most posters to highlight the things on are resume that look good (while comparing to other bubble teams) while barely mentioning things the committee is known to look at very closely (road record, for example). For example, many people still refer to “then-top 5 UCLA and Duke.” That is completely irrelevant! UCLA is a 20-25 range team now, and that is all that will count. What they were in Nov/Dec doesn’t matter… Meanwhile, Penn State’s win AT a Top 10 team is HUGE.
Big Ten Basketball at its finest in East Lansing. Purdue has scored 4 points in the first 15 minutes of the second half.
First, Can anyone clarify to me of why some analysts (specifically Greg Anthony on CBS) are saying there is no way that Northwestern should compare at 9-9 to Big East/ACC Bubble teams who don’t even have a winning record in conference? Objectively I’m having a tough time understanding what they’re saying…One thing I do understand is that the top of those conferences are very solid (the Big10 having only MSU in that class as they are handling PU). But when it comes to middling conference teams, I don’t see how any of those ACC/Big East bubble teams have much to say when you look at Big10 Bubble teams. This has to be politics right?
Second, this may be biased, but the competitiveness I see in Big10 games seems to outweigh close games I see in other conferences. Primarily I think that this is due to defense, something that is critical to winning games in March. Do you think the extreme defensive nature of the conference season will have Big10 teams more prepared than teams from other conferences? Or are Big10 offenses just THAT pathetic?
Extremely unlikely they even put UM and Duke in the same region. The committee tries to avoid rematches as much as possible, especially if you’ve played the team twice, conference or non-conference. I think the earliest you can face someone you played in the regular season is in the Sweet 16, for conference teams at least. I remember a few years back when Wisconsin faced Iowa (I think, could’ve been Purdue) in the Sweet 16. Pretty sure the Big Ten had at least 6 teams in that year though.
If we win a game or two in the B10 Tournament, an 8/9 seed is very likely, and a UNC win today would likely lock them as a #1 seed. Since we already faced UCONN they wouldn’t put us in their region if we were to pull an 8/9 seed. Facing UNC is Greensboro is a decent possibility. We might not win that game, but we’d look much better against them than Sparty did.
What should Mich fans be rooting for today so we can get a six seed in the B10 tourney? Any help on this seeding situation would be appreciated
South Florida:
A: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State win. – Seven Seed
B: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern win. – Six Seed
C: Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State win. – Seven Seed
D: Wisconsin, Purdue, Northwestern win. – Six Seed
E: Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State win. – Six Seed
F: Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern win. – Seven Seed
G: Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State win. – Six Seed
H: Indiana, Purdue, Northwestern win. – Seven Seed
I know facing a one or two seed in the second round wouldn’t be ideal (assuming we win the first round matchup, big assumption ha), but we have fared pretty well against elite teams. The only teams I really wouldn’t want to play would be UNC and Pitt. I wouldn’t mind seeing a team like Louisville.
Thx Dylan!
Yikes… Bad loss for Tennessee at home to Alabama. The SEC just really doesn’t impress me.
Say UCONN, Pitt, UNC, and OU get 1 seeds. Each of those teams is game over in a heartbeat due to their centers. So I’d much prefer a 10 seed but then again one or two of them could get 2 seeds. But we’re getting ahead of ourselves.
Tennessee, ouch! Though they’re likely a lock, that’ll hurt their seeding. I can really see a bad team who might not even be on the bubble win the SEC Tournament. Auburn is looking good lately, well, at least against the garbage teams they’re facing.
MSU is about to win, no shocker there. Purdue shot horribly, especially from 3-point range. Did Izzo shave his head yet?
I don’t care who UNC or Pitt face, they are locks in my bracket to reach the Final Four, unless a major injury occurs.
I don’t know if we are a lock yet, but I would really like to see us pull off two wins in the Big Ten tournament so there is no chance of heartbreak next Sunday. Situations:
7 seed:
Iowa on Thursday
Purdue on Friday
Ohio State/Illinois on Saturday
6 seed:
Indiana on Thursday
Illinois on Friday
Ohio State/Purdue on Saturday
Call me crazy, but I think those are all winnable games, with the exception of Ohio State, if we face them.
And how perfect would this be: 7-seed West Virginia plays 10-seeded Michigan round 1…
I wouldn’t want West Virginia. Good storyline or not, I don’t want to face a team with a chip on its shoulder (and which knows JB’s system). I want to face some overconfident 6 or 7 seed that won’t know what hit them.
With Jokisch and some of the other comments, I’m not sure we should hex ourselves and think we’re IN the Tourney just yet. I’m about 80% certain myself…but overconfidence can be dangerous.
No crazy stuff this week, and we need to beat IA/IN !
I want Iowa first round BTT. No reason we should be afraid of them. It’s revenge time baby. I wanna beat the crap out of Iowa next Thursday.
how has zona made the tourney 24 years in a row. that’s absurd.
Arizona + Lute Olson + Recruiting = 24 consecutive tourney trips.
Yeah I hate Iowa, and Jake Kelly’s crap he throws up, along with Balwinkle or whatever his name is, just stands in the corner.
What kind of team does everyone think we will play in the first round(assuming we are in, and foreseeing we win at least our game on Thur.) Or is there just too much yet to happen?
Off topic question, but does anyone know where Scott Martin transferred to?
Scott Martin transferred to
ValpoNotre Dame.Looks like Virginia Tech is finally going to be toast. Down 12 with just over a minute to play.
This MVC championship game sure is fun though.
Scott Martin transferred to ND.
I agree with Blueinflorida. I want to stomp some Hawkeye skulls.
Updated Scenarios after the Michigan State win over Purdue.
A: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State win. – Seven Seed
B: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern win. – Six Seed
E: Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State win. – Six Seed
F: Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern win. – Seven Seed
Scenario A:
2. Illinois: 11-7
3. Purdue: 11-7
4. Wisconsin: 10-8
5. Ohio State: 10-8
6. Penn State: 10-8
7. Michigan: 9-9
8. Minnesota: 9-9
9. Northwestern: 8-10
Notes: Illinois has the head to head over Purdue for #2. Wisconsin is 3-0 against the other two, Ohio State is 1-1 and Penn State is 0-3. Michigan has the head to head over Minnesota.
Scenario B:
2. Illinois: 11-7
3. Purdue: 11-7
4. Wisconsin: 10-8
5. Penn State: 10-8
6. Michigan: 9-9
7. Northwestern: 9-9
8. Ohio State: 9-9
9. Minnesota: 9-9
Notes: Illinois and Wisconsin have the tie breakers because of head to head over Purdue and Penn State respectively. For the four way tie for #6 to #9, Michigan is 4-2 vs the other three, Ohio State and Northwestern are both 3-3, and Minnesota is 2-4. Northwestern would have the tie-breaker over Ohio State because they beat Michigan State once while Ohio State did not.
Scenario E:
2. Illinois: 11-7
3. Purdue: 11-7
4. Ohio State: 10-8
5. Penn State: 10-8
6. Michigan: 9-9
7. Minnesota: 9-9
8. Wisconsin: 9-9
9. Northwestern: 8-10
Notes: Illinois has the head to head tiebreaker over Purdue for #2 and Ohio State has the head to head tiebreaker over Penn State for #4. For the three way tie for #6 to #8, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are all 2-2 against each other. The next tiebreaker is record against the first place team and so on. None beat Michigan State, so it would go to the record against Illinois. All three teams were 1-1 vs Illinois, so it would go to record against Purdue. Michigan beat Purdue once and the others didn’t, so they would be #6. Head to head would then be used for Minnesota and Wisconsin, which Minnesota has.
Scenario F:
2. Illinois: 11-7
3. Purdue: 11-7
4. Penn State: 10-8
5. Wisconsin: 9-9
6. Northwestern: 9-9
7. Michigan: 9-9
8. Minnesota: 9-9
9. Ohio State: 9-9
Notes: Illinois would have the head to head over Purdue for #2. For the five way tie, Wisconsin was 4-3 vs the other teams, making them the #5, while Ohio State was 3-4, putting them at #9. For the other three teams, it goes to record against the #1 team, Michigan State. Northwestern has a win, putting them at #6. Michigan has the head to head over Minnesota, putting them at #7.
ill st.’s offensive coaching: eldridge do something
i too would like to put baulwinkle to shame and would prefer to play purdue over ill in the 2nd round
So assuming a Wisconsin win… If OSU wins we are the seven seed and will play Iowa then Illinois or if Northwestern wins we will play Indiana and then Purdue.
I don’t know which scenario would be better for us. I think Iowa would be easier than Indiana, but Purdue would probably be easier than Illinois. Also, if Northwestern wins, the 8/9 game would be Ohio State/Minnesota, which essentially could be an elimination game for them. I still think Northwestern needs two wins in the tournament even if they win today.
Iowa is starting to play well. I know Indiana gave us trouble, but Kelly is a huge matchup problem for us and Iowa is starting to believe in itself. I would much rather play indiana, even on what will be a road court. I think I would rather play Illinois than purdue, but it is close.
Ohio State: 18
Northwestern: 6
12 minutes left in the 1st.
I’d much rather play IU than Iowa. Jake Kelly is on fire (and lucky). I don’t want any part of him. We can take down both teams, but I’d rather take on an easier matchup in IU. Plus, 6th place looks a lot better than 7th in the Big 10.
Go Wildcats
Lauderdale hurt for Ohio State, holding his left arm, does not look good. Coble swatted down as Lauderdale went for a layup. Clean foul, we will see how bad though.
Ohio State: 25
Northwestern: 15
Halftime.
Northwestern 11-2 run to start the half.
Ohio State: 27
Northwestern: 26
is lauderdale playing??
Ohio State: 31
Northwestern: 30
11 minutes left in the second half.
Lauderdale has a sprained shoulder and is questionable to return.
Lauderdale came back and played
Ohio State: 41
Northwestern: 41
5 minutes left in the second half.
We want Davidson to win I presume? Because Charleston would not make it otherwise and Davidson could?
Ohio State: 48
Northwestern: 45
1:52 left.
Ohio State: 48
Northwestern: 47
46.2 seconds left.
Ohio State: 50
Northwestern: 47
10 seconds left.
Ohio State: 52
Northwestern: 47
Final.
Down to two scenarios:
Wisconsin Wins:
2. Illinois: 11-7
3. Purdue: 11-7
4. Wisconsin: 10-8
5. Ohio State: 10-8
6. Penn State: 10-8
7. Michigan: 9-9
8. Minnesota: 9-9
9. Northwestern: 8-10
Notes: Illinois has the head to head over Purdue for #2. Wisconsin is 3-0 against the other two, Ohio State is 1-1 and Penn State is 0-3. Michigan has the head to head over Minnesota.
Indiana Wins:
2. Illinois: 11-7
3. Purdue: 11-7
4. Ohio State: 10-8
5. Penn State: 10-8
6. Michigan: 9-9
7. Minnesota: 9-9
8. Wisconsin: 9-9
9. Northwestern: 8-10
Notes: Illinois has the head to head tiebreaker over Purdue for #2 and Ohio State has the head to head tiebreaker over Penn State for #4. For the three way tie for #6 to #8, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are all 2-2 against each other. The next tiebreaker is record against the first place team and so on. None beat Michigan State, so it would go to the record against Illinois. All three teams were 1-1 vs Illinois, so it would go to record against Purdue. Michigan beat Purdue once and the others didn’t, so they would be #6. Head to head would then be used for Minnesota and Wisconsin, which Minnesota has.
With a tournament in Indianapolis, I prefer playing Iowa and Illinois to Indiana and Purdue. I like neutral sites that are actually neutral…
Your BTT schedule.
Thursday
12:00pm Minnesota vs Northwestern
2:30pm Michigan vs Iowa
5:00pm Penn St vs Indiana
Friday
12:00pm Michigan St vs Minnesota/Wisconsin
2:30pm Wisconsin vs Ohio St
6:30pm Illinois vs Michigan/Iowa
9:00pm Purdue vs Penn St/Indiana
I think N Carolina is the last team I’d want to face, especially playing near their homecourt. They have size and shooters, which is really not something we can handle. I’d rather play Pitt than UNC.