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Regrouping

By Dylan Burkhardt | 2008-2009 Season,Recruits,Uncategorized | Posted on December 4, 2008 at 4:44 pm

We took one on the chin in College Park but it’s time to put that one to bed and move on.

Looking back…

The funny part about last nights game is looking at the reaction to the game from both sides. Maryland fans think Michigan will “likely be an NCAA tournament team” and most Michigan fans are under the impression that Maryland will make the tournament as well. I think that neutral observers as well as Michigan and Maryland fans themselves might be a little less optimistic about tournament chances.

The turning point in last night’s game was Maryland’s 16-3 run at the start of the second half. Looking back at it, Beilein wishes he called a quick timeout but hindsight is 20/20 but Beilein is still learning about this team:

“I’m learning they can’t fix things on their own early in the second half, but I won’t beat them up with the tape, and we’ll say that this is what happened (in a 16-3 Maryland run early in the second half) and this is the momentum change.”

I still give Michigan a lot of credit for weathering that run and coming back in the game but in the end they allowed Maryland to get comfortable and unleashed a whole new team than the one we saw in the first half.

Maryland big man Braxton Dupree didn’t play yesterday after missing class on Monday. Dupree’s play had been underwhelming for the Terrapins thus far and Lawrence Milbourne and Dino Gregory stepped up with arguably their best games of the season.

Moving on…

I don’t think the loss at Maryland should do much to dampen excitement over Saturday’s game against Duke. Duke is playing great basketball and just dismantled Purdue in front of an packed house at Mackey Arena. Duke took the crowd out of that game in the first 4 minutes when they took at 7-0 lead. Hopefully the crowd can stay involved from start to finish on Saturday.

As a fan I am more excited about this game than any game since #1 Ohio State and Greg Oden ventured into Crisler in 2007. It should be a fun time and this team deserves to finally play in front of a big crowd.

Beyond the game, this is a huge week for recruiting. Top flight underclassmen Trey Zeigler (2010, pictured), Tim Hardaway Jr. (2010), Allen Payne (2010), Brandan Kearney (2011), and Percy Gibson (2011) are expected to be at Crisler Arena on Saturday. These are all big time prospects and it should be a great environment in Crisler on Saturday.

I think the starting line up will be juggled around from now until at least the conference season. Michgan doesn’t have depth in the post and it’s going to be a weakness all year. I think Beilein is just playing with how to best minimize the damage at this point. People have talked about a 4-guard lineup, starting Jevohn Shepherd, sending Anthony Wright to the moon, moving player X to position Y, and whatever else. I’m sure Beilein has gone through 100 more situations than the rest of us so I’m going to sit back and see what he does next.

Looking even further down the road, Michigan has to win the games it should: Eastern Michigan, Oakland, FGCU, and North Carolina Central. These teams are a combined 4-21 and Michigan needs to handle every one of them headed into the Big Ten season. Last year Michigan struggled against bad teams, 6-7 against RPI 101-200, and 3-2 against 200+, so winning these games without mental lapses (Savannah State) would be just as impressive as a close loss at Maryland in my book.

Notes & Links: Everyone should root for UCLA over Texas tonight (ESPN2). Brian does a very good job looking at yesterday’s game and whether it is a step in the right direction. John Borton checks in on who’s stock is rising and falling ($). Big Ten Geeks asks whether this was the best Big Ten/ACC Challenge ever. Michigan State is licking their wounds after a 98-63 loss to the Tar Heels, Izzo blames tired legs (Suton is also out 2-4 weeks).

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Game 7: Michigan at Maryland Post Game

By Dylan Burkhardt | 2008-2009 Season | Posted on December 3, 2008 at 11:03 pm

This one was a tale of two halves. Michigan played great in the first half and could have probably been up more than 6 at halftime. But Maryland came storming out of halftime on the back of Greivis Vasquez and didn’t really look back.

There are some definite positives to take out of this game but there are also plenty of problems that became clear. Michigan got a very good performance from their role players, especially Zack Novak for the second straight game. They also shot the ball better from long range than they have all season, and held together well in a hostile environment.

Breaking down the four factors: Michigan shot a higher eFG%  and turned the ball over less but couldn’t get to the line and gave up far too many offensive rebounds. The game was also played closer to Michigan’s pace with only 63 possessions. The thing that killed Michigan in the end was that Maryland (the word rebounding team in the ACC) rebounded half of their missed shots — that is going to be a problem all year. Michigan also struggled to create turnovers with the 1-3-1 zone and only had a 6.3% steal percentage, the lowest of the year.

I think Michigan did a couple things very well. First they established themselves early in the game and kept the crowd out of it for most of the first half. In the second half they actually responded to Maryland’s early run and fought back into the game. They are showing the same poise that they showed against UCLA and this just hasn’t been a part of this program for a long time.

Greivis Vasquez is the real deal. Vasquez put up 23 points, 12 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals and only 1 turnover. Most of his numbers came in the second half when he just took over. Vasquez was the best player on the floor and I don’t think I gave him enough credit in my pregame post.

The two biggest shots of the game were Vasquez’ three to open the 2nd half and Neal’s three that put the game away.

Maryland probably is a bubble team but they are very tough at home (especially in non conference) and it was a good effort by Michigan. We are coming off of a 10-22 season and expecting even one win this week was probably asking a little much. The bittersweet part is that we played great in the first half and probably should have had a chance to win this one.

Player Bullets:

  • Jevohn Shepherd: I can’t say enough about how impressed I am with Jevohn. Shep shot 4-5 for 9 points to go along with 2 rebounds, 4 assists and 3 turnovers. Jevohn only played 18 minutes and I would have liked to see him get more minutes down the stretch. He’s playing great and is definitely earning more playing time.
  • DeShawn Sims: DeShawn had 10 points and 4 rebounds at halftime and finished with 12 points and 7 rebounds. When Peedi starts to disappear I’d like to see Beilein do a couple things to get him involved, run some plays to get him the ball in the post. DeShawn also got in foul trouble in the second half which took him a little out of his element.
  • Zack Novak: Great game from Mr. Novak and he kept us in the game in the 2nd half. Novak was 4-8 (3-5) for 12 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists. Solid effort including a 4 point play. If Zack can keep up this effort he will be a big asset from here on out.
  • Manny Harris: Frustrating night for Manny, he never really found his groove and forced it a bit.
  • Anthony Wright: Anthony Wright isn’t a gunner, he’s a chucker. Very frusturating game for Anthony who salvaged a bit of pride with 2 late threes (one of them from the bench basically). Anthony’s numbers: 16 minutes 2-8 (all threes), 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 turnover.
  • Kelvin Grady: A very solid game from Kelvin tonight, he was 3-4 on three pointers but he only had 1 assist. Kelvin also had a much better time breaking the press but man Kelvin needs to work on those layups.
  • Stu Douglass: Stu has to keep getting the hang of when to shoot and when not to shoot. There were a couple times he should have shot when he didn’t and then he took some ill advised shots early in the 2nd half that led to some Maryland points.
  • David Merritt: Merritt has struggled lately, he doesn’t turn it over but he doesn’t create or score.
  • Zack Gibson: Struggling to find his confidence right now and not a strong rebounder. Michigan is going to need some production out of him at the four or five.

Twos final thoughts: I’m ready for Laval Lucas-Perry and sadly it looks like a Michigan win wouldhave won the Big Ten their first Big Ten/ACC Challenge.

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Game 7: Michigan at Maryland Preview

By Dylan Burkhardt | 2008-2009 Season | Posted on December 3, 2008 at 10:50 am

Basics:
Who: Michigan @ Maryland
Where: Comcast Center, College Park, MD
When: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ESPNU
Line: Maryland by 6
Preview: Stat Sheet
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)

Streaming Video

(This is through a stream on Justin.tv which is apparently ran by an MSU fan but it seems to consistently stream ESPNU)

It seems like every game is a new challenge for Michigan. Next up: win a tough road game in College Park. The tricky part about predicting this game is that Michigan matches up pretty well with Maryland. Both teams are undersized in the post and have a playmaker on the wing. Not to mention that Maryland and Michigan both have upset victories over top 10 teams but have also looked less than impressive at times.

The Terrapins’ Adrian Bowie is insistent that Maryland will not have anymore performances similar to their performance against the Hoyas:

“We’re not getting blown out like that no more this season,” Bowie said. “This is Maryland basketball. We can’t get blown out this year. We’re trying to get back to the NCAAs, so we can’t let that happen anymore.”

The atmosphere in College Park will be a big test for Michigan, especially for freshman Stu Douglass and Zack Novak. The place will be rocking for what is probably Maryland’s toughest non-conference home game this year (Note: It’s not sold out as I had previously written, tickets are on sale here). For a sense of the atmosphere, check out this video and this description of the student section from Wikipedia:

Maryland students are primarily positioned along courtside and “The Wall,” which top to bottom are filled with student seating behind the opponent’s 2nd half basket. Normally there are 4,000 students in attendance, so Maryland is considered one of the most intimidating student sections in the ACC alongside North Carolina and Duke.

Michigan has played at places like the Breslin and Cameron Indoor so it’s not completely foreign but of course they haven’t got any Ws. And of course we can barely sell 500 student tickets and struggle to get 4000 people to show up at Crisler. At least we have the right attitude:

“We’re going in knowing we can win if we stay together,” guard Manny Harris said Tuesday. “That’s all we can think about.”

Back to the teams on the court, the go to guy for Maryland is junior guard Greivis Vasquez. The Venezuela native averages 17ppg, 5.2rpg, and 4.2 apg but he isn’t necessarily an efficient shooter. Vasquez only has an eFG% of 45.8%, you can compare this to Manny’s eFG% of 58.3%. He’s a playmaker though so Michigan’s first goal has to be to take him out of the game.

Maryland has several solid complementary players around Vasquez but none that really stand out. Adrian Bowie, Eric Hayes, and Landon Milbourne all average between 8 and 11 points. Bowie (50%) and Hayes (career 38.6%) are the main threats from long range for Maryland.

Maryland has been in a huge funk from three point range though and they have made only 4 of their last 31 attempts (12.9%). Steve Yanda from the Washington Post writes that Maryland is stressing patience on offense and not settling for jumpers. The Terps don’t sound like a great passing team, and we have seen great passing teams like Duke tear up the 1-3-1 contrary to a mediocre passing team like UCLA which struggled.

In terms of size, the Terrapin starting lineup measures: 6-4, 6-4, 6-6, 6-7, 6-8 and they don’t really have any contributors off the bench with a lot of size either. This is good for an undersized Michigan team and I would love to see Michigan dump the ball down low to DeShawn Sims early and often.

Maryland likes to play at a faster pace than Michigan, they average 71.2 possessions per game compared to Michigan’s 62.9. As a team Maryland rebounds 48.3% of shots to Michigan’s 50.2%. Michigan also has a slightly higher free throw rate of 34.5 compared to Maryland’s 32.5. However Maryland has a lower turnover percentage (18% ) than Michigan (21.1%) this season.

The key to this game for Michigan is having someone besides Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims step up and score some points. I don’t care whether it is Zack Gibson, Stu Douglass, Zack Novak, or Anthony Wright but someone has to make some three pointer shots tonight. If Michigan can get a third scoring option that scores in double digits I think they have a chance.

Overall Michigan definitely has a chance in this game if they can keep their composure. Maryland is a solid team but they aren’t spectacular. On the road I think John Beilein realizes how important it is to get a good start and I fully expect DeShawn Sims to start tonight (probably for Zack Gibson). It’s all about weathering runs and if Michigan can do that they have a chance to make another statement.

What They’re Saying:

Let’s hear your predictions in the comments!

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2008-2009 John Beilein Radio Show Schedule

By Dylan Burkhardt | 2008-2009 Season | Posted on December 2, 2008 at 7:45 pm

The John Beilein Radio Show is back and this year it will be located at Pizza House (on Church St). Here is the full schedule:

Thursday December 11, 2008: 7:00-8:00
Thursday December 18, 2008: 6:00-7:00
Tuesday December 23, 2008: 7:00-8:00
Monday January 5, 2009: 7:00-8:00
Monday January 12, 2009: 6:00-7:00
Monday January 19, 2009: 6:00-7:00
Monday January 26, 2009: 7:00-8:00
Tuesday February 3, 2009: 7:00-8:00
Monday February 9, 2009: 7:00-8:00
Monday February 16, 2009: 7:00-8:00
Monday February 23, 2009: 7:00-8:00
Monday March 2, 2009: 7:00-8:00
Monday March 9, 2009: 7:00-8:00
Monday March 16, 2009: 7:00-8:00
Monday March 23, 2009: 7:00-8:00
Monday March 30, 2009: 7:00-8:00
Italics: Show’s time, date, and availability will depend on Michigan’s potential postseason schedule

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Tuesday Links

By Dylan Burkhardt | 2008-2009 Season,Links | Posted on December 2, 2008 at 9:30 am

Michigan:

Recruiting:

Big Ten/ACC Challenge:

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Questions & Answers: One Month Progress Report

By Dylan Burkhardt | 2008-2009 Season | Posted on December 1, 2008 at 5:43 pm

Michigan is sitting at 5-1 after a very successful November. Not many would have expected this team to beat UCLA and lose only one game (to Duke). I was convinced that Northeastern had at least a 50/50 shot to knock us off early in the season. However even with the surprising record there might be even more questions about this team now than before the season tipped off.

Should Anthony Wright be starting?

Using play by play data, I took a look at Anthony Wright’s numbers from tip off to the first media timeout. Besides the opening game against Michigan Tech the numbers weren’t encouraging.

Through 6 games Anthony’s stats in roughly the first four minutes are: 6 points, 2-12 shooting, 4 rebounds, 2 turnovers, 2 steals, and 1 assist. In fact if you take out the Michigan Tech game these numbers are even worse: 0-10 shooting and 0 points. Michigan has also been trailing by an average of 2.66 points at the first media timeout.

For comparison’s sake I wanted to look at DeShawn Sims’ numbers in the first four minutes he’s in the game. Substitution data is apparently very hard to come by in the college game so I could only look at the first four minutes after DeShawn registered a statistic. DeShawn’s totals from roughly his first four minutes: 6-12 shooting, 14 points, 9 rebounds, 2 turnovers, and 2 steals. (* Play-by-play data for UCLA and Duke games didn’t have anything besides rebounds and field goals)

While DeShawn’s numbers are clearly better than Ant’s, this could also just prove that DeShawn is a better spark off the bench. My biggest issue is that we are trailing by 2.66 points at the first timeout in games where we have won by an average margin of 11 points.

The concern I have with starting DeShawn is whether he really plays better coming off the bench, if he is more comfortable that way let it ride. There are plenty of other scenarios as well, DeShawn could start for Zack Gibson or Jevohn Shepherd could start for Anthony Wright.

The bottom line is that Michigan can’t afford to let a team like Maryland get off to a hot start on the road because they will never look back.

What effect has the three point line moving back had on shooting percentages?

The national average for three point shooting this year in the month of November is 33.7% compared to last year’s November average of 34.6%. However last years 34.6% was the highest November three point percentage in at least the last 10 years so this year’s number isn’t that unreasonable. Check StatSheet for every statistic imaginable about three point shooting.

Where has Michigan improved?

I posted a statistic earlier that Michigan’s three point percentage is much worse at this time than last year at this time 28.6% vs 36.3% last year. This number is also well below the national average of 33.7%.

Let’s take a look at the four factors:

08-09 07-08
eFG% 50.5 45.8
TO% 21.1 19.9
OR% 34.9 33.6
FT Rate 34.5 28.3

This is comparing this month’s numbers to last season’s numbers as a whole but still there is some remarkable improvement. Michigan’s eFG%, offensive rebounding percentage, and free throw rate have all shown improvement. The turnover percentage is probably influenced heavily by Michigan’s last game against Savannah State, before this game the turnover % was only 19.62.

The other improvement this year appears to be defense. Michigan is running the 1-3-1 zone a lot more successfully this year and it’s paying dividends.  Michigan’s opponents are shooting an eFG% of 43% compared to 51.4% last year.

Michigan has also improved in stealing the ball with a Steal% of 12.3 compared to 9.6 last year. Blocks are down from 9% to 7.3% which is understandable with the departure of Ekpe Udoh.

The Beilein recipe is to not turn the ball over, make three pointers, and create turnovers with the 1-3-1. Right now it appears that they are doing two of those things very well. This improvement along with Manny and DeShawn’s improvement inside the arc is carrying Michigan right now.

If you have questions on tempo free stats, start here.

Is Michigan a 2 man team?

The other issue is that right now Michigan goes as Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims go. Right now the duo combines for 54.48 % of Michigan’s points, 68.18% of free throws, 54.1% of offensive rebounds, 48.46% of defensive rebounds, 28% of assists, 33% of steals, 37.5% of blocks, 39.5% of turnovers.

Both Manny and DeShawn are playing better this year and also playing more consistently. DeShawn has increased his eFG% from 45.2% to 54.7 and is averaging 8 rebounds per game compared to 5.4 last year.  Manny has made even bigger improvements increasing his eFG5 from 43.1 to 58.3, his rebounds from 4.2/game to 8.0/game and assists from 2.7 to 4.2/game.

Right now these two kids are carrying the team and I guess you could say this is a bad thing but the improved efficiency is definitely encouraging.

What should Michigan fans expect this week?

Michigan has two very tough games this week with a road trip to Maryland and a home game against Duke. I think any Michigan fan’s should be pleased with a split.

This team hasn’t played a road game yet and Maryland will be a very good test. Vasquez is a streaky player and it will be important to slow him down early. Maryland looked solid in beating a Michigan State team that looked vastly overrated in Orlando. However they followed that game up with two sub-par performances against Gonzaga and Georgetown.

The Blue Devils are rolling and have a huge game at Purdue coming up Tuesday night. They handled Michigan with relative ease in their first matchup at the Garden and it would be hard not to predict another Duke win. Duke seemed to pick to the 1-3-1 zone apart for long stretches in that game. Michigan get’s another chance at home in front of a home crowd that will be out in full force.

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