Game 12: North Carolina Central at Michigan Preview

Basics:
Who
: Michigan (9-2) vs North Carolina Central (0-14)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Monday, December 29th 7pm ET
TV: BTN
Preview: Stat Sheet
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)

Ken Pomeroy has North Carolina Central ranked 344th in his latest rankings, dead last.  The Eagles are flat out not a very good team. Only one of their losses has come to an RPI top 50 team but they have 5 losses by more than 30 points.

The Eagles have an eFG% of 39.5, turn the ball over on 25.7% of their possessions, rebound 28.8% of their misses, and have a free throw rate of only 18.2. All of these rank below 290th in the country.

NC Central’s leading scorers are Jamar Briscoe (14.4 ppg, 32.8%) and Vincent Davis (12.2 ppg, 34.3%). They also appear to lean heavily on 6-9 center Stevy Worah-Ozimo who averages 35.3mpg, 8.4 ppg, and 8.3 rpg.

This is a game Michigan should clearly win easily and it will be the last tune up before the Wisconsin game on Wednesday. This is a chance for Michigan to knock off the holiday funk before jumping head first into the conference season.

I don’t have much else to say about this game but here are a couple things that stand out from Michigan’s KenPom profile as we near conference season:

  • 2nd in the country in free throw percentage.
  • 6th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.
  • 14th in turnover percentage.
  • 22nd in steal percentage.
  • 63rd with an eFG% of 52.3% but three point shooting is at 35% (134th) while two point shooting is at a very solid 52.2% (48th).
  • As expected Michigan’s offensive rebound percentage ranks 202nd and free throw rate ranks 183rd.
  • 43.9% of Michigan’s shots are three pointers (19th in the country) and 65.9% of made baskets come off of assists (15th)
  • Defensively Michigan continues to be very mediocre with an adjusted defensive efficiency of 94.7 (130th). Surprisingly the thing they seem to defend best is the three point shot, Michigan’s opponents are shooting only 29.2% from long range (compared to 38% last year).
  • Taking a look at last year’s profile is a nice way to look at the improvements already this season. Michigan has improved dramatically in just about every way offensively. Certainly these numbers could go down a little bit in conference play but this team’s profile is starting to look a lot more like Beilein’s teams at West Virginia (05 & 06) than I would have expected.

Let’s hear your thoughts and predictions for tonight’s game in the comments.

Recruiting Roundup (12-29-2008)

Commits

Darius Morris

Darius led Windward to a 54-50 win over Bellarmine Prep. Morris had a game high 22 points including 2 free throws with 50 seconds left to give Windward the lead. In the next game of the Max Preps classic Windward fell to Bellevue (WA) by a score of 57-48, Morris had 18 in the loss [HIGHLIGHTS].

Here are some notes from a UMHoops reader who made it to Darius’ first game:

  • Anthony Stover (former UM recruit-headed to UCLA) looks shockingly similar to Greg Oden. Stover does not have an offensive game but had around 10 blocks. Big project on the next level.
  • They played against Bellarmine Prep from Northern Cal. Team had only one D1 player (Niyi Harrison) headed to Santa Clara.
  • Malcolm Washington (Denzel’s son) was a good scrappy player.
  • Steve Kerr was in the building watching. Gym 70% full.  It was close the entire game, Windward won 54-50.
  • Morris finished with 22 points on 9-22 shooting. The best thing was that he scored his points in a variety of ways, mostly drives. He had a beautiful separation fade-away to end the first quarter. He picked up his third foul with 4 minutes left in the second quarter. Great penetrator in the open court, made a lot of no look passes. Would have had around 10 assists if his teammates could make their layups. His on court demeanor was good, pretty positive with the rest of his teammates.
  • I feel that D-mo will be much better when he is surrounded by better players. In my opinion his coaching is subpar, his team has 3 D1 players and the game shouldn’t have been close.
  • The team ran a lot of these NBA sets to isolate D-Mo with the ball, but he would do nothing with it. I think D-Mo is a good penetrator but he doesn’t have a fast first step.
  • He will be much better in Michigan’s offense with much more running. If he were playing for Michigan today he would play 20 mins a game. Overall, D-mo was pretty much everything I expected; nothing great but everything solid.

Matt Vogrich

Lake Forest is off to a good start in the State Farm Holiday Classic with wins over Kankakee Bishop Mac (box) and Sterling (box).  Vogrich led all scorers in both wins with 27 and 24 point performances. Lake Forest plays Normal Community High School in the semi-finals today at 4:30 PM.

The folks at Scout.com were big fans of Matt’s play this week at the State Farm Classic. They mentioned that beyond his shooting he is a tough player who can get to the hole and also plays well away from the ball.

Jordan Morgan

Morgan bounced back after a frustrating start to his season with 28 points in a 72-63 win over Detroit Cass Tech.

Blake McLimans

Blake was listed as one of the top shooters in the NE area by the NERR. It’s been a transition for Blake at Worcester but his numbers seem to be going up as he gets more in the swing of things. I’ve only seen a little bit of video but you can see why Beilein loves the kid. Blake looks so comfortable putting the ball on the floor and shooting it that you wouldn’t believe he’s 6-10.

’10 Recruits

Will Regan

Will Regan had 19 points 10 rebounds and six blocks in Nichols’ 53-46 win over Poly-Tech. Regan has been a monster early on for Nichols and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his stock continue to rise.

Alex Dragicevich

Glenbrook North beat Hillcrest (45-43) but fell to Morton (63-51). Dragicevich had 24 points and 6 rebounds against Hillcrest, but only had 7 points and 5 turnovers against Morton while shooting 1-8 from long range.

GBN will be in action again this afternoon in the consolation bracket.

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Hardaway Jr. had 25 points in Palmetto’s 69-55 win over Columbia at the Hoopla at Vero Beach.

Cameron Ayers

Germantown lost to Archibishop Carroll 63-52. Ayers had 17 points with three triples.

Germantown beat North Catholic 57-56 and Cameron Ayers scored 24 points with a triple and 10 made field goals.

Allen Payne

Winton Woods beat Seminole, FL 61-54 in the first round of the Seminole Classic. They will be in action Monday and Tuesday as well.

Ray McCallum

Ray McCallumThe talented point guard has been dominating the competition early on this year. McCallum is probably a long shot for U-M but his play is worth mentioning. McCallum had 18 in an overtime win against Chicago DeLaSalle and 27 in a blowout win over Grand Ledge.

’11+ Recruits

Brandan Kearney & Percy Gibson

Detroit Southeastern beat Saginaw 65-61. Kearney and Gibson both had solid games. Kearney hit a couple triples for 9 points and 6 assists. Kearney hasn’t been putting up gaudy numbers but everything you read about Brandan points to his poise and being a smart player. Gibson had 8 points and 10 boards.

Matt Poches and Patrick Lucas-Perry

Flint Powers handled Hartland 94-71 at the Motor City Roundball Classic. PLP had 18 points, 4 assists, and 3 steals on 50% shooting. Poches had 20 points for Hartland. 

Monday Links

Ben Cronin Will Redshirt

Cronin’s likely medical redshirt has been rumored for a while but it was made official today. Cronin will undergo surgery on Wednesday January 14th and will sit out 5-6 months during rehabilitation. In limited minutes this season Cronin has played with a noticeable limp and I think this is definitely the right decision in the long run. Quotes:

Beilein:

“After discussing Ben’s condition with his family and the U-M medical staff we have decided surgery is the appropriate action,” said Beilein. “Even though it is a setback, Ben has been fantastic with his attitude and his determination to get healthy as soon as he is able to rejoin the team.”

Cronin:

“It is a disappointment that I will not be able to practice and help this team get better, but I know this surgery is the best option for me right now,” said Cronin. “I am excited to get healthy and put this hip issue behind me. I am going to take it slow, but I know I will be working as hard as I can over the next five to six months to be ready for next season.”

Game 11: Florida Gulf Coast at Michigan Post Game


There was no energy from the tip and Michigan didn’t do anything to give the crowd life all night. The fact that Florida Gulf Coast is a horrible team is no excuse to come out with the physical and mental effort that we saw tonight. Luckily FGCU was bad enough that Michigan’s poor play didn’t come back to haunt them.

Michigan played down to a Florida Gulf Coast team that had no business staying close. Worst of all they settled for a record number of three point attempts when they should have pounded the ball inside against a team that couldn’t match them in talent or athleticism. 65.6% of Michigan’s field goal attempts were from long range and they made only 12 of those 42 long range attempts.

Florida Gulf Coast’s 49% eFG% topped Michigan’s 45.3% but FGCU just couldn’t hold on to the ball. FGCU turned the ball over on 36.1% of their possessions compared to Michigan’s 20.8%. Michigan won the other two of the four factors as well: they rebounded 40% of their missed shots compared to FGCU’s 31.4% and posted a 35.9 free throw rate compared to FGCU’s 31.4.

Michigan picked a good time to play one of their worst games of the year but they can’t afford to play with this level of effort over the next couple weeks. North Carolina Central is another team who Michigan should blow out (they might be worse than FGCU) but they can’t afford to pick up bad habits headed into the Big Ten season. There are plenty of excuses (Christmas, break, poor opposition and whatever else) but Michigan didn’t do a whole lot to prove they belong in the top 25 tonight and better get their act together before December 31st.

Player Bullets:

  • DeShawn Sims: One of the only bright spots for Michigan today, Peedi had 20 points and 20 boards against a FGCU team that had no one that could handle him.  Peedi also hit 2 of 3 triples and added 3 assists, 1 block, and a steal.
  • Laval Lucas-Perry: LLP showed that his three point stroke against Oakland was no fluke as he hit 2 out of 3 of his long range attempts. LLP also showed good quickness getting down the floor on a fast break and breaking up a FGCU break. He played 20 minutes today and I’d expect his minutes keep inching up game by game.
  • Stu Douglass: Stu played pretty well, he hit a couple triples and also showed off his athleticism with an open court dunk. 12 points (3-6 shooting), 2 boards, 1 assist.
  • Kelvin Grady: Grady had a season high 14 points but he took 12 shots including 10 threes. Some of them were good looks but I would have liked to see Grady drive and dish a little more. 1 assist to 3 turnovers doesn’t help his stat line either.
  • Manny Harris: Manny had his first single digit game of the 2008-2009 campaign but he managed 5 assists and 6 rebounds. He also had 4 turnovers and got a little too careless with his shot selection in the first half.  Manny shouldn’t be taking 8 threes in a game and really started forcing his game.
  • Zack Novak: Novak struggled at the four tonight. There were several rebounds that maybe he should have had and I think he let that affect his shooting. Novak was 1-8 (0-5 3pt) and 2-4 on free throws for 6 points with only 3 rebounds and 2 assists.
  • Anthony Wright: Another DNP. The writing was on the wall as his minutes declined gradually and now that LLP is in the rotation it appears that Beilein is leaving him behind. It’s really hard to find room for a shooter who can’t shoot.

Game 11: Florida Gulf Coast at Michigan Preview

Reed Baker

Basics:
Who
: Michigan (8-2) vs Florida Gulf Coast (4-7)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Monday, December 22nd 7PM ET
TV: BigTenNetwork.com
Preview: Stat Sheet
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)

Reed Baker leads the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles back to his old stomping grounds in Ann Arbor. Baker transferred to play for former Michigan manager Dave Balza after John Beilein arrived. Reed leads FGCU in scoring with 11.6 ppg but is shooting only 33% from the field. I would love to see Reed have a good game back at Crisler Arena as long as Michigan can pull off the W. Here are Reed’s comments on Michigan:

“He didn’t think I was tall enough to play wing in his 1-3-1 zone,” Baker said. “And based on my stats, how many assists I had averaging 8 to 10 minutes a game, he didn’t think I was the type of player for his system and he didn’t see me playing a lot.”

Baker could’ve kept his scholarship at Michigan but didn’t want to stay where he wasn’t wanted.

“After spending a year putting in the effort and learning what it takes to be a college basketball player and not reaping the the benefits and getting the rewards of playing time, it wasn’t worth it to me, it made my decision easy,” he said. “You’re there four hours a day. Who wants. … I think of myself as a positive person and who wants to be around a person who’s so negative with you every day. I’m not going to put myself around that. So I said, ‘I’m gonna go somewhere else and be happier,’ which I am.”

Reed was basically forced out and I don’t blame him for feeling a little bitter, he was by all accounts a good kid and I’m glad that it appears he has landed on his feet. In the same article Balza notes that the game was scheduled to set up a presentation in memorial of Dr. Joel Fortnoy, a former Michigan manager who died unexpectedly.

FGCU has played a couple tough opponents including Kansas (85-45), Florida (94-60), and Butler (73-53)  but they haven’t beat anyone with an RPI better than 200.

FGCU plays an uptempo game (70.9 possessions per game) but doesn’t shoot it particularly well, their 43.5 eFG% ranks 311th in the nation. They also struggle holding onto the ball and turn it over on 26.7% of their possessions (338th) and also rebounding where their offensive rebounding percentage ranks 231st. The one thing they do relatively well is get to the line, their 29.0 free throw rate ranks 70th in the country. Overall their adjusted offensive efficiency rating ranks 316th.

It’s also worth noting that Michigan’s adjusted efficiency rating is up to 6th in the country, this is very impressive considering they were ranked 148 at the end of last season.

With FGCU’s poor statistical profile and apparent injury problems, this game has cupcake written all over it. It should be a chance for Beilein to continue to tinker with the lineup and continue to ease Laval Lucas-Perry into the lineup.

Let’s hear your thoughts and predictions in the comments.

Game Day Links:

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