Basics:
Who: Michigan (10-3) vs Illinois (13-1)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Sunday, January 4th Noon ET
TV: BTN
Preview: Stat Sheet
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)

January is far too early to call a game a must win but this is one that Michigan could definitely use. It certainly won’t be easy, Illinois comes in riding high at 13-1 after stealing a win in West Lafayette. Michigan on the other hand is looking to bounce back after being handled by Wisconsin at home.

This one matches up one of the conference’s best offenses (Michigan) versus one of the conference’s best defenses (Illinois). Both teams are coming off frustrating seasons which saw them tied near the bottom of the Big Ten standings at 5-13. While both teams’ strengths differ they like to play at about the same pace, 65 possessions per game.

On offense Illinois does a very good job of passing the ball, 71.8% of their field goals come off of assists (1st in the country). They also shoot a lot more 2 point shots (71.4%)  than three point shots but surprisingly don’t get to the line very well. Their offense’s bread and butter is the mid-range jumpshot.

On defense Illinois holds their opponents to 26.3% on three pointers (3rd in the country), this is scary for a team like Michigan who relies on the three. Illinois also forces turnovers on 24.4% of their opponents possessions and holds opponents to an eFG% of 43.3% (28th) while still keeping opponents off the line with a free throw rate of 28% (37th). Illinois’ opponents have shot 33-86 (57%) at the free throw line this year and this is the second lowest percentage in the country. Illinois clearly has no control over how opponents shoot at the stripe but hopefully Michigan can escape the curse at the line.

In terms of personnel the Illini are the definition of balanced with 4 starters averaging 12.1 ppg: Trent Meacham, Mike Davis, Demetri McCamey, and Mike Tisdale. Meacham and McCamey make up the 3 guard backcourt along with senior point guard Chester Frazier who focuses on distributing (6.5apg) more than scoring (5.9 ppg). Davis and Tisdale bring size and skill to the front court. Tisdale is a 7 f00ter who loves to step out and stick the mid range jumper. Davis is 6-10 and averages almost 8 rebounds per game while shooting 53.4% from the field.

Overall Illinois doesn’t have the kind of size at every position that Wisconsin did but they still have two very skilled big men in the post that could give Michigan fits. Michigan is going to need a big game from DeShawn Sims and even then he might need some help. Novak (6’5″) against Mike Davis (6’10″) is going to be an issue so I would expect Beilein to do some tinkering.

The advantage for Michigan might be on the wing, McCamey is strong but he doesn’t match Manny Harris in terms of height. I wouldn’t be surprised to see sixth man Calvin Brock get a lot of time to try and slow down Manny. Over the last few years Brock has started plenty of games and he played 28.5 minutes per game last year versus Michigan.

There is another guy on the Illini bench that Michigan fans are all too familiar with, sophomore guard Alex Legion. Legion is averaging 5.5 ppg and 2rpg but he is shooting only 33% from the field in his four games back. Legion has been around the block after two Michigan commitments, a year at Oak Hill, and a stint at Kentucky. Through it all though the scouting report on Alex is the same: good shooter, poor shot selection, and lackluster defense. It’s a pretty good bet that Alex will be the Maize Rage’s “bum of the game”.

The good news for Michigan is that they have played some of their better games after a loss including the upset of Duke after a frustrating loss at Maryland. The bad news is that Illinois is playing very well and this is another student break game. I think Michigan has let their offense dictate their defense lately and it’s absolutely critical to get out of the gates with a good start, hit a couple shots and get a couple stops and set the tone.

Let’s hear thoughts and predictions in the comments, KenPom has the Illini 67-63.  Michigan is going to need help from the big two as well as some of the role players. I’d also like to see Laval Lucas-Perry have a good game but most of all a solid second half.

Welcome back to Big Ten basketball. Wisconsin won a 59 possession game thanks to 58.7% shooting from the field. It’s definitely too early for Michigan fans to jump off the bandwagon because Wisconsin is going to do that to a lot of teams this year and Michigan has 17 more Big Ten contests yet to go.

Wisconsin posted their third highest offensive efficiency of the season at 123.7 and Michigan posted their fourth lowest at 103.4. Wisconsin came out hot and got out to an early 12 point lead and while Michigan made runs, Wisconsin answered every one of them and hit big shot after big shot to keep Michigan out of the game. There aren’t many teams who can execute as well as Wisconsin did today on offense, they methodically picked Michigan apart.

Before the game I said the key for Michigan was pace and forcing a more uptempo style. A 59 possession game is just what Wisconsin wanted, they wound the shot clock down time after time and still managed to get their shots. Michigan’s defense certainly needs work and there are a couple things I didn’t like today on the defensive side of the ball. First off, Michigan abandoned the 1-3-1 pretty early on, I think they need the 1-3-1 to force some turnovers and they just didn’t do that today. The man-to-man defense today had us switching on every screen and I don’t know that I liked that so much either. This team isn’t going to be dominant defensively but they are going to need to do better in this conference. Wisconsin hit some tough shots but they got a far too many good looks.

Looking at the four factors there is only one that Wisconsin won handily: shooting. Wisconsin shot an eFG% of 65.2% to Michigan’s 47.1%. Turnovers were low for both teams, Wisconsin posted the 2nd lowest turnover percentage of any of Michigan’s opponents this year. Michigan lost the rebound battle 30-26 but they did a good job on the defensive glass and Wisconsin only rebounded 13.6% of their misses. Free throw rate was a tieand in the end Michigan really needed to get to the line more than they did to have a chance.

Even though Wisconsin led for the whole game there were a couple chances for Michigan to get back in it. Michigan was on the cusp several times but they just missed some wide open looks. The Laval Lucas-Perry three at the end of the first half comes to mind along with several others but I think it’s at least encouraging that we got some really good looks.

It’s always frustrating to lose at home, especially to lose a game this way where you are down start to finish. But in the end it’s just one game and it’s too early to jump off any cliffs. Purdue and Minnesota both lost on their home courts and they are both good teams. I made the mistake of underestimating Wisconsin in my Big Ten predictions and they showed why today. Michigan isn’t the only team that will lose to Wisconsin but this loss makes Sunday’s contest against Illinois a big one.

Player Bullets:

• Zack Novak: Wow, how did Zack Novak have no scholarship offers coming out of high school. Zack is just a warrior and he played his heart out today. Novak had a career high 20 points on 7-11 (5-8 3pt) shooting and also pulled down a game high 8 rebounds. I questioned Novak’s rebounding but he can flat out get after it whether he is out matched in height or athleticism. Zack single handily kept us in this game and it was an admirable performance in a day that didn’t have many.
• Manny Harris: Frustrating night for Manny to say the least. Manny was 3-13 (0-2) and 4-6 on free throws with 6 boards. Manny just wasn’t getting the foul calls when he was driving to the lane but he just kept putting his head down and driving. Manny’s game relies on getting the line but he just can’t let the refs get in his head like he did today.
• DeShawn Sims: Peedi had 14 points on 5-6 shooting in 29 minutes but just never really seemed like a factor. I wasn’t impressed by his defense and it seemed like he got beat quite a bit. I think he might have been fighting a cold (he was wearing a nasal strip) but he’s going to need stronger performances as Michigan’s only real big man.
• Stu Douglass: Stu was 0-5 and it just wasn’t his night. It was interesting that Beilein went with Stu running the point for stretches today, I think it was an attempt to match a little of Wisconsin’s size. Stu had a couple good looks but he they just weren’t falling. Stu did have 2 assists to 0 turnovers so he didn’t appear to be an awful answer at the point.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: LLP played a career high in minutes with 30 but wasn’t hitting his shots either. LLP was 2-8 (1-6 3pt, 6-8 ft) for 11 points with 2 assists and 5 boards. It was a solid outing but I think LLP is definitely still feeling out the offense and he also missed a couple wide open threes. Trevon Hughes got the best of everyone today but I think he really took it to Laval a couple times as well.
• Jevohn Shepherd: Shep got only one stint off the bench but I think Novak’s monster game was a big part of that. Beilein also played Gibson a little more in an attempt to match Wisconsin’s size. Shep might have helped defensively but Novak was just playing too well.
• CJ Lee: CJ hit a big three in the first half and played hard but he still doesn’t give us that much besides basically being a coach on the floor. I think a lot of his minutes in their first half were a message to Manny to calm down.
• Zack Gibson: 1 rebound in 14 minutes with 2 points isn’t really going to cut it. Gibson is in a funk and needs to figure his way out of it because Michigan is going to need him to win games in the Big Ten.
• Kelvin Grady: Grady didn’t get a lot of minutes and I’m not sure why. The game certainly wasn’t uptempo which hurts Kelvin and Wisconsin just had so much size with all the switching on defense.

Basics:
Who: Michigan (10-2) vs Wisconsin (9-3)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Wednesday, December 31st 2pm ET
TV: ESPN2
Line: U-M by 3
Preview: Stat Sheet
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)

The fun and games are over and it’s time to tip off the grinding Big Ten schedule. Only 3 of Michigan’s next 19 games are against teams outside of the RPI top 100 and the Big Ten is going to be more competitive from top to bottom than it has been in years. If you caught last night’s Illinois/Purdue game you got a pretty good reminder of what Big Ten basketball is all about.

Wisconsin is a team designed for conference play. Bo Ryan has turned Wisconsin into a machine that systematically rises to the top of the Big Ten year in and year out. Last year’s team lost to Marquette and Duke in the non-conference before winning the Big Ten with a 16-2 record and taking the tournament title for good measure. When you look at Wisconsin you have to throw out their losses to Texas, Marquette, and UConn and realize that they are going to bring it on Wednesday.

The key for both teams in this game is pace. Michigan averages 65.8 possessions per game compared to Wisconsin’s 61.2. The Big Ten is known for slow basketball and Wisconsin is one of the reasons why. The only conference team that plays slower than Wisconsin is Iowa (57.2) and they are the slowest team in the country. Michigan isn’t an uptempo team but they need to play the game at their pace and not let Wisconsin take the air out of the ball. Wisconsin’s 3 losses came in games with over 63 possessions and they have only won two games with over 63 possessions (UW-GB and SIU-Edwardsville).

Wisconsin’s backcourt consists of Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon and they can both shoot it. Hughes is shooting 47.8% from long range while averaging 30 mpg, 12.6 ppg, and 2.8 apg to 1.3 to/game. Bohannon’s percentage is down a little from last year at 35.2% but he leads the team in long range attempts.

Up front the Badgers lean on the duo of Joe Krabbenhoft and Marcus Landry. Landry averages 12.1 ppg to go along with his 4.3 boards but he’s also a threat from outside with a 42.9% 3pt percentage. Krabbenhoft is a guy who has never quite turned into a superstar but is just consistent. Krabbenhoft averages a balanced 7.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg, and 2.5 apg.

Keaton Nankivil (5.1ppg, 3.9 rpg) rounds out the starting lineup but the guy to watch out for is sixth man Jon Leuer. Leuer is a 6-10 sophomore forward who can step out and hit the three (46.7%) and averages 9.8 ppg and 3.6 rpg.

Wisconsin is a team full of guys who can step out and shoot the three but also play disciplined slow basketball and grind you up. The keys for Michigan beyond dictating the tempo are winning the turnover battle and keeping Wisconsin off the free throw line. Michigan has done a good job keeping opponents off the line but they also don’t do a very good job getting to the line. Michigan plays best when they use their 1-3-1 effectively and create turnovers and get some easy baskets. The 1-3-1 has looked a bit dicey over the last couple games but Beilein has typically done a good job tweaking it just the right way in big games.

KenPom thinks this is a game Michigan should win 67-63 (67% confidence) and I agree as long as Michigan can play their game. Hopefully they come ready to play despite students being absent because if they don’t Wisconsin will come out swinging and steal one in Ann Arbor. Arguably our three worst games have been when there are no students (Savannah State, Florida Gulf Coast, and North Carolina Central). I worry a little bit about some of the freshmen in their first Big Ten game but they have played the likes of Duke and UCLA and played in College Park so I think they are at least a little battle tested. These first four conference games are huge and it’s important for Michigan to get off to a very good start if they want to go dancing down the road.

Thoughts and predictions in the comments. Also, if you have the day off and are in the area try to make it to Crisler Arena because there are still tickets available.