Opportunity missed. Michigan had their chance to pull out a home win but they just couldn’t finish off the Buckeyes despite being up 44-40 with 7:35 to play. The Buckeyes were the ones that seized the game with a 16-3 run over the next 6 minutes and left Ann Arbor with a big win.

Things didn’t go Michigan’s way for most of the contest. The Buckeyes got out to a hot start and led for most of the game. Even then Michigan clawed their way back into the game on the backs of Manny Harris and Stu Douglass in the second half before letting the game slip away. Protecting home court is absolutely critical in the Big Ten and dropping two of your first three home games is definitely not ideal.

On offense Michigan didn’t really get anything from anybody besides Manny Harris and Stu Douglass. DeShawn Sims found the soft spot in Ohio State’s match-up zone time and time again but just couldn’t make a basket. Sims had tons of open looks in the paint but only shot 4-13 for the game. Manny played an all around game and did everything he could to try to lead Michigan to a win. The match-up zone is tough to play against but I really think Michigan did a good job getting the ball in the right spots, they just couldn’t finish enough of them. Ohio State did provide some full court pressure that caused Michigan some problems and took them out of their comfort zone as well.

The Ohio State offense had their way with Michigan’s defense. The Wolverines just didn’t have the size the handle the Buckeyes. Ohio State found ways to get tons of easy buckets and dunks for BJ Mullens and Dallas Lauderdale whether they were off of penetration, from alley oops, or exploiting mismatches. Michigan did a decent job forcing turnovers, Ohio State turned it over on 25.6% of their possessions, but in the end that wasn’t enough to slow the Buckeyes who scored 65 points on 59 possessions. Those easy dunks and baskets are demoralizing for the crowd and the team and you just don’t want to give points away that easily.

Looking at the four factors, Ohio State won this game in two areas: by getting easy shots and getting to the line. The Buckeyes were only 3-11 from long range but were 21-33 from inside the arc for an effective field goal percentage of 58%. Ohio State had a free throw rate of 45.5% compared to Michigan’s 19.6%. Ohio State did take a few extra free throws down the stretch but in the end Evan Turner could get to the line and Manny Harris could not. Evan Turner posted a free throw rate of 116% while Manny Harris posted a free throw rate of only 25%. I can’t say whether Manny isn’t getting calls or Turner was getting the benefit of the doubt but Turner’s 14 free throw attempts were a huge difference in this game.

The road doesn’t get any easier for Michigan, next up a road game against a Penn State team who beat Purdue at home and gave Michigan State all they could handle. Winning on the road isn’t easy in the Big Ten but after dropping a couple early games Michigan is going to have to steal some road wins if they are serious about dancing. Every game is a new battle and Michigan has to put this one behind them. CJ Lee is confident the team can rebound:

“I don’t worry about the attitude of the team. Guys have been solid; they have been solid all year. We have dealt with adversity in this program for a long time. I am not worried at all; guys are going to bounce back like they always do.”

Player Bullets:

• Manny Harris: Complete game from Manny: 7-16 (3-6 3pt) for 21 points in 37 minutes with 7 boards, 6 assists, and 4 turnovers. The turnovers are a bit high but Manny had a huge game and carried the team. If Michigan had got much of anything from anyone else they win this game.
• Stu Douglass: Stu found his stroke a bit tonight: 4-9 three point shooting for 12 points. Stu hit some huge shots and kept Michigan in the game in the second half. It’s good to see him feel it a little and hopefully he can build some confidence.
• DeShawn Sims: Two troubling games in a row for Peedi: 4-13 shooting for 10 points with 6 rebounds. I don’t know if he is tired or what but DeShawn just has to make those shots inside. He’s going up against bigger guys but a lot of those shots just have to fall.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: MIA. LLP was 1-5 for 2 points and didn’t give Michigan much of anything. We just have to remember that he has only played a few college games and is a freshman in his first taste of Big Ten play. LLP is averaging just over 5 points per game and shooting 29% in his last three games.
• Zack Novak: Zack scrapped hard but isn’t finding his shot, he didn’t score his one field goal until he hit a three very late when the game was basically out of reach. It’s pretty clear he’s going to play though, Zack played 37 minutes, tied for the team lead with Manny.
• Kelvin Grady: Kelvin didn’t have his best game, he hit a couple big threes but not much more. He also had one huge turnover late in the game on a pass attempt to Stu Douglass that had no chance.
• CJ Lee: A charge, two assists, a steal, and a three pointer in 6 minutes. Not sure what else you can ask for.
• Dave Merritt: Not giving Michigan much of anything, Grady needs to continue to play through his struggles.

Basics:
Who: Ohio State (12-3) at Michigan (13-4)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Saturday, January 17th 8:00 ET
TV: BTN
Spread: U-M by 3
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, Ohio State KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)

Big games are back in Crisler Arena. Maybe it hasn’t been that long but there was a stretch last year when I didn’t know when the feeling would return. Saturday’s game has just about all of the ingredients for a big time game: its Michigan vs. Ohio State, both teams are battling for tournament bids, the 1989 national championship team will be honored, there is a sense of momentum and energy surrounding the program that hasn’t been felt for years, and did I mention we are playing Ohio State?

Ohio State started the season 9-0 with wins over Notre Dame and Butler but their season hit a skid when David Lighty injured his foot and they suffered a 28 point home loss to West Virginia. Ohio State comes into the Michigan game having lost 3 of their last 6 while sitting at 2-2 in the Big Ten. Their conference wins came over Iowa and Indiana at home while their losses were to Michigan State and Minnesota. Michigan is coming off a disappointing loss to the Illini but they have played some of their best basketball this year after a loss.

Defense has been the core of Ohio State’s team this year and while their D hasn’t played at such a high level after the loss of David Lighty they are still nothing to laugh at. They are one of the best teams in the country at blocking shots (block rate of 19.1%) while also keeping opponents off the free throw line (FTA/FGA = 23.7%). There is still some good news on the defensive side of the ball for Michigan. First, Ohio State doesn’t do a very good job defending the three point shot (opponents shoot 34.2% from long range, 181st nationally).  Second, Ohio State struggles against teams that hold on to the ball. West Virginia, Michigan St., and Minnesota all turned the ball over on less than 20% of their possessions and managed to beat the Buckeyes. The only other teams to hold on to the ball at that rate were Notre Dame (lost by 5) and UNC-Asheville (lost by 24).

Offensively, Ohio State is solid but unspectacular. Their offense revolves around do-it-all forward Evan Turner who averages 15.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.7 apg, and 2.3 spg. As a team they do a solid job of getting to the line (FTA/FGA = 39.9%) and holding on to the ball (to% = 18.7%). For a team with a good amount of size they do a poor job on the offensive glass and only rebound 30.2% (265th nationally) of their misses.

Ohio State provides quite a challenge for an undersized Michigan team inside. BJ Mullens and Dallas Lauderdale provide size on both ends of the floor. Lauderdale averages a gaudy 2.8 blocks per game to go along with his 6.2 ppg and 4.7 rpg in 22.9 minutes. Mullens on the other hand is a bit more skilled and averages 8.3 ppg in 18.7 minutes. Hopefully DeShawn Sims has done some soul searching because Michigan is going to need his A-game on offense and defense.

Ohio State also starts two very athletic wings that can get it done in a variety of ways: Evan Turner (6-foot-7) and William Buford (6-foot-5). Buford is averaging 18.3 ppg over his last three games and is really starting to get comfortable in his freshman season. Turner has looked like the Big Ten player of the year at times this year and is a bit similar to Manny Harris in the sense that he can shoot, pass, and rebound. John Diebler and Jeremie Simmons round out the starting lineup. Diebler can’t do much more than shoot the three while Simmons runs the point and is probably the weakest link for the Buckeyes.

If I’m Michigan I would try to match up LLP with Buford and put Manny on Turner. That leaves Novak on Diebler and Grady on Simmons at the point. If OSU can get Turner matched up with Novak they are going to have a big advantage because I just don’t think Novak is quick enough to keep Turner out of the lane. Michigan will probably be at a height disadvantage at every spot on the floor but that really isn’t anything new. I also would expect Michigan test Jeremie Simmons with the 1-3-1 zone early and often.

This is the first of 2 games in 11 days between the Buckeyes and Wolverines and both games are a critical for each team’s NCAA tournament chances. Right now it appears to be a pretty safe bet that 6 teams make it from the Big Ten (and 7 might be possible). Both Ohio State and Michigan appear to be positioned right around the 5-7 slots in the conference and if either one of them could sweep the season series they would put themselves in good position come March.

If you have tickets for the game make sure you don’t let the weather keep you away, this team needs your support. Let’s hear thoughts and predictions in the comments.

Pre-Game Reading:

• 1989 NCAA Basketball Championship
  YouTube Highlights
• Preview: Ohio State at #24 Michigan
  ElevenWarriors with the OSU preview.
• The Tenth Power
  Corey McCartney says Manny Harris is the most unappreciated
• Can’t stop scatterplotting.
  SpartansWeblog scatterplots the whole conference… Best offensive players: Robbie Hummel, Talor Battle, Kalin Lucas, DeSha(w)n Sims, and Manny Harris.
• Ex-University of Michigan men’s coach Bill Frieder has no hard feelings
• Illinois Game Preview
  Illinois heads to East Lansing

Looking up and down the Big Ten stats this year it is pretty clear that there just are not any impact freshmen. Last year’s all-freshman team consisted of Eric Gordon, Manny Harris, Kosta Koufos, Robbie Hummel, and E’Twaun Moore. Two of those guys were main cogs for the Purdue team that won the conference, Koufas and Gordon were one and done, and Michigan fans know all about Manny Harris.

This year’s freshman class doesn’t appear to come close to last year’s in terms of top flight talent. B.J. Mullens was the #1 player in the country but he hasn’t dominated games by any stretch. Delvon Roe was a 5 star All American but he is coming off of reconstructive knee surgery and doesn’t expect to be “himself” again until next year.  The only other Rivals top 100 prospects this year are William Buford (19), Devoe Joseph (61), and Korie Lucious (98). There are 8 others in the 100-150 range but once you get to that range you are just as likely to find a Kendrick Price as A.J. Abrams.

In an attempt to follow in other bloggers’ (who are better at this than me) footsteps I’m going to try to take a look at which Big Ten freshmen have played the best thus far. I could think of no better way to do this than a scatterplot…

Stats from Kenpom.com, taken on 1-14-09

Spartans Weblog outlines the use of this chart:

Offensive rating is basically an attempt to use all the individual basketball stats currently available to measure a player’s efficiency in using possessions to score points.  The rating uses the same scale as team offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions).

Usage rate is determined by the number of shots taken and turnovers committed by each offensive player (i.e., the number of possessions consumed by the player).

Ken Pomeroy provides a good summary of how to look at the two numbers:

A very important aspect of offensive rating is that it must be used in conjunction with the possession usage (%Poss) column to have any value. The average player will use 20% of his team’s possessions while he is on the court.  The majority of players fall between 15% and 25%. A player that has a high offensive rating and uses a lot of possessions is especially valuable (example: Adam Morrison, 122.8 ORtg, 31.4% possessions used).

The best freshmen would be located in the northeast quadrant of the chart. The only guy in this quadrant is Iowa freshman Anthony Tucker,whose season went off the tracks when he blacked out in an alley and contracted mono. Tucker was a monster statistically until early December but hasn’t been a factor in the Iowa offense since.

I think it’s also worth taking a look at which freshmen are playing the most minutes.  A guy like Draymond Green has a decent offensive rating but he just hasn’t played near the minutes of say a Zack Novak who is starting for Michigan. There are 8 freshmen who rank in the Big Ten top 50 in terms of percentage of minutes played:

Matt Gatens – 78.2 (11)
Tom Pritchard – 73.6 (20)
Nick Williams – 69.3 (26)
Daniel Moore – 61.2 (33)
Zack Novak – 58.9 (37)
Lewis Jackson – 56.3 (42)
William Buford – 55.9 (43)
John Shurna – 50.6 (50)

Here are a few freshmen that I think are worth noting at this point in the season.

Matt Gatens (Iowa) – The Iowa guard can flat out shoot it and his eFG% of 64.1% is just ridiculous. He is the best three point shooter in the conference and is also Iowa’s second best rebounder.

Laval Lucas-Perry (Michigan) – LLP has only played a few games thus far but he has posted a great offensive rating  and an eFG% over 50%. Laval is starting now and will continue to get his chances to succeed in the Michigan offense.

William Buford (Ohio State)- The athletic wing is the Buckeyes third leading scorer and averages 10.3 ppg in only 23.3 mpg.His offensive rating isn’t through the roof but he definitely belongs in the conversation, especially now that he is being forced to step up without David Lighty.

Delvon Roe (Michigan State) – Delvon Roe is one of the best rebounders in the conference. Roe has a 14.3 OR% (3rd) and a 21.3 DR% (4th). Delvon’s offensive efficiency is still coming a long but he his rebounding sets him apart from other freshmen bigs.

Zack Novak (Michigan)- Novak doesn’t use a lot of possessions but he does play a lot of minutes. He is over-matched at the four night in and night out but he has already posted a couple solid performances in conference play.

BJ Mullens (Ohio State) – The big man has the hype but doesn’t quite have the substance yet.  Mullens is improving game by game and has scored double digits and shot over 50% in his last three contests.

Tom Pritchard (Indiana)-  The Indiana is averaging 29.7 mpg, 12.4 ppg, and 7.5 rpg. Those are solid numbers but he certainly hasn’t been overly efficient. Someone has to score some points even on bad teams and it appears that Pritchard is that guy — although KJ (SpartansWeblog) points out that his ORtg is significantly higher than IU’s team average of 87. Pritchard’s ORtg of 98.0 ranks 12th out of the 15 players who use more than 24% of possessions. Two of the three people trailing him also play for the Hoosiers.

Ralph Sampson III & Colton Iverson (Minnesota) – I haven’t watched Minnesota play quite enough but both of these guys seem to having very solid freshman seasons. They combine to average 36.1 mpg, 12.7 ppg, 7.7 rpg, and 3.3 bpg. Iverson has struggled in Big Ten play thus far with only 12 points in 5 games.  This duo of freshmen big man are at least worth keeping an eye on down the stretch.

John Shurna (Northwestern) – Shurna is another guy I don’t know a lot about. He definitely appears to be a guy who is heavily used by Northwestern, as his 27.4% possession percentage ranks third in the Big Ten.

Looking at this list raises the question: How did the conference improve by leaps and bounds while not bringing in any big time freshmen? I think there are two easy answers to this one. First, guys like Robbie Hummel and Manny Harris who were impact freshmen last year are back. Second, the quality of coaching in the league is better than it has been in years.

I’m sure I missed people that deserve mention in this article so please let me know if I missed anyone. Let’s hear who makes your all freshman team in the comments.

Twitter

UMHoops is on twitter. Your guess is as good as mine as to what this means. At the very least it will have all the latest UMHoops posts so you can get them through twitter. We’ll see if it turns into anything more.

• Lure of Pro Ball Still Tugs at Pittsnogle
  Great read from the NY Times on Kevin Pittsnogle
• Interview: Pete Tiernan of bracketscience.com
  Greg Dooley talks NCAA tournament and Michigan with Pete Tiernan
• …Is This Thing On?
  A new U-M blog on the radar, ThoseWhoStay.com. Be sure to check out articles on Greg Robinson and The Barwis Beach.
• Escape from Evanston
  Purdue has their IU/Savannah State moment
• Uggggh! Cats Collapse, Fall to Purdue-63-61
  The Northwestern reaction…
• The Missing Ingredients
  “What a choke job from the Badgers. Wisconsin made Minnesota look like high schoolers for 33 straight minutes in the middle of Thursday’s game. With about three minutes left, Tubby Smith FINALLY reapplied full court pressure and the wheels came off.”
• On a trip
  Did Suton trip Talor Battle?
• Hoops Recruiting: Regan, Brandt, ‘11s and more ($)
  Rivals with some tidbits on many hoops recruits
• Michigan at Illinois 1/14/09 SD
  Illinois torrent.