Basics:
Who: Michigan  (15-8) at Connecticut (21-1)
Where: Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, CT
When: Saturday, February 6th, 6 PM
TV: ESPN
Spread: UConn by 17.5
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, UConn KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Opposition Blog: Matt’s UConn Blog (a lot of quality info)

Michigan is back on the road to take on the #1 UConn Huskies. Connecticut has been rolling through the Big East, after their opening loss to Georgetown the Huskies have rattled off 10 straight victories. Before citing Michigan’s earlier success against top 5 teams I think it is important to realize that Connecticut is a different breed of beast. The Huskies are a big strong team that dominates on both ends of the court and have one of the top big men in the country in Hasheem Thabeet.

UConn is a statistical monster; their defensive efficiency (85.8) is 7th in the country while their offensive efficiency (118.8) is 5th. There is really only one weakness across the board, forcing turnovers. UConn’s free throw rate of 48.4 ranks fourth in the country but their opponents average free throw rate is only 18.1, tops in the country.

The Huskies offense relies on two point shots and getting to the free throw line. UConn shoots only 22.7% of their shots from behind the arc, one of the lowest percentages in the country (338th). They shoot 52.5% on two point field goal attempts and 36.3 from three point range for a 52.9 eFG%. Connecticut also does a solid job holding onto the ball (17.7% TO) and a great job on the glass (40.4 OR%).

UConn has the #1 effective height rating by Ken Pomeroy (linked to description of the metric) of any team in the country. Most of this can be attributed to one man: Hasheem Thabeet. However the Huskies are long across the board, comparing starting lineups by height is scary for Wolverine fans (especially when you consider that Sims is more like 6-7 and Novak is more like 6-4):

C: 7-3, 6-9, 6-7, 6-4, 6-2
M: 6-8, 6-5, 6-5, 6-3, 5-11

Michigan’s effective height ranks 211th and they have struggled with big teams all year long. Sims and Novak are both giving up around half a foot in height to the man they are guarding while Manny Harris is stuck guarding a 6-foot-7, 240 pound machine who averages a double double.

UConn Personnel:

• Hasheem Thabeet: 30.5 mpg, 13 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 4 bpg. The 7-foot-3 big man is a legit player of the year candidate and completely alters the game with his size.
• Stanley Robinson: A mid season addition who served a suspension working in a junk yard before returning to the team. The 6-foot-9 wing man has struggled a bit since his return and only played 2 minutes at Louisville after picking up some quick foul trouble. UConn went with the three guard look and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a little of that Saturday.
• Jeff Adrien: Adrien is another monster on the wing, the 6-foot-7 243 pound wing averages 14.3 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 1.6 apg, and 1 bpg while shooting 53.6% from the field. Adrien hasn’t made a three point bucket all year.
• Jerome Dyson: Dyson averages 13.5 ppg, 4.3 rpg, and 3.3 apg but he only shoots 32.3% from long range.
• AJ Price: Price is the main three point threat for the Huskies, averaging 12.2 ppg and 4.3 apg while shooting 42.3% from long range.
• Kemba Walker: The backup point guard averages 9.2 ppg in 23.7 minutes and also shoots over 40 percent from long range.
• Depth: UConn doesn’t have a deep rotation, the other two guys who get playing time are Craig Austrie and Gavin Edwards.

How do you beat UConn? Only the Hoyas have done it and the catalyst in their upset was turnovers. Georgetown forced UConn to turn the ball over on 27% of their possessions and rattled UConn from the start. You have to remember that Georgetown isn’t short on height either; Greg Monroe is another premiere big man that could match up with Thabeet.

The key for Michigan is going to be to spread the Huskies out and force Thabeet away from the basket. Luckily they have the right guy for the job in DeShawn Sims. If Sims can hit a few perimeter jump shots early on it will at least pull Thabeet out of the key a little bit. I don’t think that driving right at Thabeet and trying to get him in foul trouble is the answer because he is just too good of a shot blocker.

Defensively Michigan needs to bring the same kind of intensity they played with Thursday night. I’m sure Michigan will try some 1-3-1 zone to try and counteract UConn’s size but the zone hasn’t been very effective lately. It will be all hands on deck with CJ Lee, Jevohn Shepherd, and Zack Gibson probably getting a solid chunk of minutes.

The only positive is that this game will help Michigan’s RPI even if they lose. Michigan’s strength of schedule will continue to rise over the last month of the season and hopefully that helps them out on Selection Sunday. There are several key differences between this game and Michigan’s earlier upsets: it is on the road, there is no matchup advantage for Michigan to exploit, and UConn is huge. This is one of those games where Michigan needs to make a ridiculous number of three pointers to even stay in the game.

On a side note, for those of you wondering how this game ended up on the schedule, here is Beilein’s explanation:

“We wanted a second half game. We said that if we end up going to the Coaches vs. Cancer (finals), we are really crowded with exams (in the fall semester). We felt that second semester we have two bye weeks (in conference), let’s put it in there. Unfortunately, the Big Ten scheduled a Thursday game (against Penn State), it should have been a Tuesday or Wednesday game, but once it was scheduled we couldn’t change it.”

Thoughts, in-game discussion, and predictions are encouraged in the comments. A couple site notes too:

• The server seems to be running much better. There were issues with Internet Explorer as well but I think I fixed them. E-mail me if you still have problems.
• Plus/Minus is on break for the rest of the season if you didn’t figure it out yet. I just don’t have time to do it for every game, especially with so many conference games.
• Next week is MSU week and there are a couple great features and posts on deck.

Pre-Game Reading:

• WOODEN MIDSEASON TOP 30
  Manny makes the list
• UConn Motivated To Stay On Top
  Fans are camping out…
• Welcome to first place
  UConn moves into first place after USF knocks off Marquette. Beilein was 1-4 against UConn at WVU. Adrien on Michigan:
  “We’ve got to be prepared for back-door cuts and three-point shooting. They play four guards. I have to step up defensively and guard some perimeter dudes.”

Michigan pulls away from Penn State in one of their best defensive performances of the season. In many ways this game was a mirror image of the game these two teams played at Penn State. The first half was relatively close in the first half before turning into a blowout down the stretch.

The defense that CJ Lee played on Talor Battle can’t be overstated. CJ got the start and was in Talor’s grill from the opening tip. CJ held Battle to 9 points on 3 of 15 shooting (1-9 3pt) and 3 turnovers. To give you an idea of how well Battle was playing he is averaging 18.7 ppg while shooting 39% from three point range in conference play. CJ wasn’t the only guard who played great defense; Dave Merritt and Stu Douglass played great defense as well.

I said before the game that the key for Michigan was defense and they answered with arguably their best defensive performance of the year. Michigan held Penn State to their season lows in: total points, offensive efficiency, and effective field goal percentage.

Michigan had to pick their poison on the defensive end and they chose Cornley. This was a good choice because Jamelle was going to get his regardless. Cornley is playing some great basketball right now and he even decided to unleash his three point shot tonight. In the first match up Michigan tried a ton of double teams but that allowed Penn State to unleash a three point barrage. This time the message was clear: lock down Penn State’s guards.

On offense it was the Manny Harris show. Manny looked focused from the start and tore apart the Nittany Lions. Manny did a great job keeping himself under control and you could even see him telling himself to calm down after a couple poor decisions early on. Manny plays with much more confidence on the offensive end when he can get to the free throw line. Tonight he had 14 free throw attempts for only his second double digit free throw game since Big Ten play began. Manny wasn’t a one man show; he dished the ball (7 assists), rebounded the ball (6 boards), and played defense (2 blocks, 2 steals) while only posting 2 turnovers. The most impressive stat here is that Manny had 6 assists and zero turnovers in the second half.

As a team I think Michigan did a very good job running the offense; they looked crisp, sharp, and prepared. There were a couple backdoor cuts and good ball movement throughout. It has been too long since I have seen that mystified smile and fist pump from DeShawn Sims after he makes the right pass on a backdoor cut. It wasn’t lights out shooting but Michigan scored 1.15 points per possession and shot an eFG% of 56.9%.

Michigan needed this one and they got it. Beilein said after the game that he told the team how important this one was and they responded. I don’t think Beilein will bother with his birthday cake tonight unless it is in the film room because Michigan has to face the #1 team in the country Saturday night. Michigan matches up extremely poorly with the Huskies but they really have nothing to lose. The game will likely boost their RPI regardless of a win or loss and will definitely boost their strength of schedule.

Player Bullets:

• Manny Harris: See above. Manny brought his A+ game and Michigan is going to need to see a lot more of it down the stretch. Manny clearly had the right reaction to his ejection. For what it is worth, I noticed Manny make an identical rip move in almost the same position on the court (of course he wasn’t closely guarded) with nearly identical technique.
• DeShawn Sims: Peedi was pretty much missing in action throughout the first half but he ended the game with a solid stat line: 9 points on 4 of 6 shooting with 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal, and 3 blocks. DeShawn didn’t get the start and only played 26 minutes but he did very well in the “hustle” statistics like rebounds, blocks, and steals.
• CJ Lee: CJ played 29 minutes, scored 5 points, dished 4 assists and locked down the likely Big Ten Player of the Year. In the biggest game of the year thus far it was the captain that stepped up and set the tone.
• Stu Douglass: Stu played the best defensive game of his career on Stanley Pringle while still playing well on offense: 5 of 9 shooting for 13 points and three rebounds. I think Stu has to be the starting 2-guard soon, he is playing far better than Laval right now.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: 0 points, 0-4, 1 rebound, 1 assist, 1 turnover. Laval only played 4 minutes in the second half and he is really struggling. I don’t know what is going on in Laval’s head but it can’t be good.  I think at this point the only thing you can do is reduce his minutes and let him work his way back.
• Zack Novak: Novak is still searching for his stroke but played well: 4 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 steals. Zack didn’t play quite as many minutes as he had before his suspension. I don’t think he was getting quite enough lift on his shot in the second half but I would imagine a lot of that has to do from trying to guard Jamelle.
• Jevohn Shepherd: Jevohn played 13 minutes and had a big dunk to go along with 2 rebounds and 2 assists. I think that Shep will see a few minutes per game from here on out. Michigan will definitely need him against a far more athletic UConn team on Saturday.
• Zack Gibson: Gibson got the start and played 13 minutes while going 2 of 5 from the field for 4 points while pulling down 4 boards and grabbing a steal and a block. Two of the rebounds and three of the shots came on one possession so Gibson was relatively quiet but I think he played a solid game overall.
• Dave Merritt: The senior came up big on the defensive side of the ball and also hit a couple big shots. Merritt played thirteen minutes and while he didn’t do much that will show up on the stat sheet he continued the relentless pressure on Talor Battle.
• Kelvin Grady: 1 minute. According to Beilein’s post game comments it was his decision and Kelvin isn’t hurt. Kelvin got in the game once Penn State brought full court pressure but got yanked the moment he went under a screen and left Battle with a wide open three point shot. Beilein doesn’t usually chew people out on the sideline but he lit into Grady after that. I think Kelvin is going to have to step up the defensive effort (physical and mental) if he wants to get back on the floor.

Basics:
Who: Penn State (17-5) at Michigan  (14-8)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Thursday, February 4th, 7 PM
TV: BTN
Spread: Michigan by 4
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, Penn State KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Opposition Blog: Crispin and Cream, Black Shoe Diaries

Penn State systemically destroyed Michigan in their first meeting. They established the inside game early on with Jamelle Cornley and then blasted the game open in the second half with the three point shot. Talor Battle, Stanley Pringle, and Danny Morrissey combined to shoot 9 of 13 on three pointers while Jamelle Cornley scored 17 points on 8 of 10 shooting while pulling down 11 rebounds.

These two teams are headed in different directions right now. Penn State has won four in a row including a huge road win at the Breslin Center. Michigan has lost five of their last six and doesn’t look anything like the team that beat Duke 2 months ago. Penn State fans are jumping on the bandwagon while Michigan fans are trying to get off.

Michigan is searching for answers right now. This is a team that needs something to spark them and get them going again. Maybe the elbows, maybe the embarrassment of their loss at Penn State, or maybe the NCAA tournament. I don’t care what it is, they need to start playing now or it will be too late.

Michigan showed signs of life in the first half against Purdue that they hadn’t shown at Penn State or Ohio State.  They battled and scrapped and even when their shots weren’t falling they played tougher defense than most of what we have seen for most of this year. Michigan will need to bring that first half intensity for 40 minutes if they are serious about beating the Nittany Lions.

Penn State’s statistical profile isn’t much different than the first time Michigan faced them. In bullet form:

Strengths:

• Three Point Shooting: 39.4% three point field goal percentage (15th nationally)
• Holding on to the ball: 17.1% turnover% (11th)
• Three point defense: Opponents shoot 29.8% from long range (11th)
• Keeping opponents off the line: Opponents FTA/FGA = 25% (7th).
• Defensive Rebounding: 72.1 defensive rebounding percentage (7th)

Weaknesses:

• Forcing turnovers: Only force turnovers on 19.1% of their opponents possessions (261st)
• Blocking Shots: 4.8 block% (324th nationally)
• Shooting free throws: 64.6% from the line ranks 286th nationally
• Depth: Only 25.1% of Penn State’s minutes come from the bench (302nd)

A look at Penn State’s personnel invariably has to start with Talor Battle, who appears to be a clear favorite for Big Ten Player of the Year. Battle is averaging 19 ppg, 5.3 apg, and 5.5 rpg while shooting 41.1% from long range. Any Michigan fan that watched the first game is aware of what Jamelle Cornley, Stanley Pringle and Danny Morrissey can do as well.  Cornley has been on fire during PSU’s last 5 games, averaging 20 ppg and 7.25 rpg. Morrissey continues to struggle with his shot but he hit three of four triples against Michigan. Stanley Pringle is the final Penn State sniper and he’s hitting 50% from three point range, higher than his overall shooting percentage.

Similar to Northwestern, Penn State is coming to Ann Arbor after a big win in East Lansing. Michigan handled Northwestern with relative ease and I wouldn’t mind seeing a similar outcome against the Nittany Lions. Unfortunately it’s not going to be that easy. Penn State looks to be the real deal but they still have their work cut out for them if they want to make the tournament. The Nittany Lions didn’t play much of anyone in the non-conference season and may need to win as many as 11 games in conference to make the dance.

I think this one comes down to defense. If Michigan can slow down Penn State’s dynamic offense they can pull this one out at home. If not, it’s going to be a rough month or so for Michigan fans as Michigan’s tournament chances continue to drop.

Thoughts, predictions, and in game discussion in the comments.

Pre-Game Reading (updated throughout the day):

• Trio of surprising blowouts just part of another wild and wacky Wednesday
  Katz breaks down Wednesday’s action and the tournament implications.
• Nittany Lion of the Week – Talor Battle
  Black Shoe Diaries profiles Mr. Battle
• Minnesota Game Recap (2/4/09)
  MSU destroys Minnesota at home
• Losing streak halted: Hoosiers drop Hawkeyes, 68-60
  The Hoosiers win!
• Not Voting
  Big Ten Geeks rebels against the college basketball BlogPoll which I’ll be taking part in starting next week.
• Court Vision with C.J. Lee: Not the Time to Save Anything
  This is late but CJ Lee is awesome.
• I’d Like Forde Seconds of My Life Back
  Just in case you aren’t sick of ripping mainstream-non-Michigan-media for their coverage of Elbowgate…
• Life without Hummel?
  Thanks for playing against us Robbie. If Hummel were to play every other game from here on out he would be out for the Michigan game. A lot can probably change between now and then but I know someone who has tried to play rugby with a broken vertebrate and it is not fun.

The Standings. Right now Michigan is 8th in the Big Ten, a half game behind Northwestern. It’s important to remember that the Big Ten schedule is very unbalanced this year. Some teams have played some teams twice already (e.g. Michigan and Illinois) and some haven’t even met once this year (e.g. Michigan and Minnesota).

In order to try and make some sense of the standings I pulled some simple data: home losses, road wins, games remaining against Indiana, and home games remaining. Home losses and road wins are crucial in a league where it is so important to defend home court. At this point Indiana is really the only cupcake in the league (even though they might still beat someone) so if you have games left to play against the Hoosiers that is definitely an advantage. The table is sortable and the team names are linked to their WarrenNolan RPI profiles.

It is pretty clear that Michigan is not in ideal shape. They are the only Big Ten team that has already played 10 games, they have already dropped 2 at home, they have only one road win, and they don’t have any more games against Indiana remaining. Wisconsin looks like they could still make a run for a tournament spot thanks to two games against Indiana but their margin of error is slim after a 6 game losing streak.

Tempo Free. Spartans Weblog and Big Ten Geeks have all the tempo free Big Ten statistics that you could possibly need. KJ posted an updated aerial last night:

Because we have seen Michigan’s struggles first hand, it isn’t that surprising that Michigan has gone from the best offense (after the non-conference season) to the below average range with Iowa and Northwestern. Purdue and Illinois have the best defenses in the league and you will notice that the standings pretty much fall right in line with defensive efficiency. On the offensive side of the ball the top dogs are Michigan State and surprisingly Wisconsin. Wisconsin has struggled lately but apparently this is due to their defense rather than their apparently solid offense.

Three Point Shooting. It doesn’t take a statistician to know that Michigan had an awful time shooting the ball in January but the numbers really are ugly. Looking at Stat Sheet’s three point tracker it becomes pretty clear why Michigan is struggling to win games.

Michigan shot 37.9% from long range in December while taking 29 three attempts per game. They shot the ball well for pretty much the whole month and the three point shot helped them to the huge upset win over Duke. They are only shooting 27.8 attempts per game in January but they are shooting a dreadful 29.6%.

Announcers and writers love to make the point that Michigan is shooting the most three pointers in conference play yet they are shooting the lowest percentage. It is definitely important to score inside but the fact is that Michigan is not equipped to score inside. Michigan was already mediocre at getting to the line and the more physical Big Ten limits them inside the arc. The bottom line is that this team needs the three point shot to win games in conference play because they are so undersized.

If the three point shooting numbers in February don’t look more like December than January then it is probably a safe bet that Michigan didn’t turn their season around.

Tournament Chances. Michigan needs to win 5 more games to get to 9-9 and I have a hard time seeing a 19-12 (9-9) Michigan team that beat Duke, UCLA, Illinois and others left out of the dance. Adding in a first round tournament win and a likely second round loss and you are looking at a 20-13 overall record.

Andy Katz listed the teams that have made the tournament with losing conference records and there is more or less one per year and sometimes more. In my book Michigan would be one of the top candidates in the country to make the dance at 8-10. They beat Duke and UCLA in the non conference and play in the Big Ten which is arguably the deepest conference in the country and has the #2 ranked RPI. Not to mention Michigan’s strength of schedule will likely be top 10 when all is said and done.

The Penn State game on Thursday is looking more and more like a “must win”. If Michigan loses Thursday, a 5 game losing streak is not out of the question. However if they can knock off Penn State, the team that they appear to be competing with for a tournament slot, they will at least stop the bleeding a bit. The three other remaining home games are Michigan State, Minnesota, and Purdue and the “winnable” road games are at Iowa and at Northwestern. It would be ideal to get to 9 wins before finishing the season off with road games at Wisconsin and Minnesota.

The road certainly isn’t easy but I wouldn’t say it is impossible just yet. Then again, it’s hard to be confident when the major bracket projections (sidebar) don’t have Michigan any better than “The Last Four Out”.

Links:

• Former Wolverines, Piston populate NBDL All-Star roster
  Sims, Petway, Hunter, and Hairston.
• A disturbing trend is emerging with midseason firings, more thoughts
  If you aren’t sick of Manny Harris elbow talk, here is Seth Davis. I still don’t get the rule. If you do what Manny did and there is no contact, you will receive a violation? I see that move every day on TV.
• Harris ejection part of a bigger problem
  Fran Fraschilla on… Manny Harris
• Scouting Darius Morris
  Some more on Darius. Make sure to check out UMHoops videos of Darius and the other recruits here as well as other scouting reports from this season.
• Ailing/injured Boilers take on Buckeyes
  Surgery for Kramer