Video: John Beilein Breaks Down Northwestern

John Beilein was available to discuss Michigan’s upcoming home game against Northwestern. Notes and quotes are after the jump.

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Video: Stu Douglass & Darius Morris Preview Northwestern

Video of Stu Douglass and Darius Morris discussing revenge against the Wildcats.

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Tuesday Links

win-prob
KenPom Predicted Overall Wins: Nov. 22, 2010 vs. Feb. 8, 2011

  • The graphs above demonstrate the difference in the shift in expectations since Thanksgiving. Michigan’s most likely win total then was 14 and there was less than a 50% chance that Michigan won over 14 games. Now the Wolverines sit at 14-10 with seven games to play the most likely win total is 17 games with ~37% chance of 18+ wins.
  • All Access Video: Zack Novak at Penn State
    This kind of got dragged down by other content but this is a great video from David Merritt with Zack Novak before and after the Penn State game.
  • Manny Harris: Undrafted to Starter
    Harris is actually seeing his playing time rolled back a bit, with several Cavs starters getting healthy, but he’s having a solid rookie season.
  • Decision to bench Tim Frazier and Andrew Jones with 2 fouls led to Penn State’s NCAA-crippling home loss to Michigan
    This is apparently the world that Penn State fans live in. The author fails to note that two of Michigan’s biggest buckets, a pair Darius Morris of layups in the final minutes, came at the expense of Tim Frazier playing with four fouls. He also talks about “handing the Boy Scouts open standstill threes” despite the fact that Penn State attempted 28 threes to Michigan’s 19.
  • ESPN Bracketology: February 7th
    The Big Ten is down to just 5 teams with Michigan State being one of the first four out.
  • Crashing the Dance: February 7th
    Michigan is just barely in the picture for teams that are almost on the bubble, if that makes sense.
  • On the Dime: The Lucious Effect
    The Only Colors breaks down the loss of Lucious. The shocking stat to me is that 81% of Durrell Summers’ field goals this season have been assisted. Summers doesn’t return the favor with an assist rate of just 3.8% — meaning he assists just 3.8% of his teammates’ makes while he’s on the floor.
  • Q+A With Tim Hardaway
    Hardaway Sr. discusses an array of subjects, including his son.
  • Big Ten power rankings: Week 7
    Inside the Hall ranks Michigan eighth in the league

Recruiting Roundup: February 8th, 2011

A bit abbreviated (no 2013s) due to a busy week.
Class of 2011

Trey Burke – Commit

I scouted the talented guard when he faced off with Lakewood St. Edward and, despite Northland losing its first game of the season, Burke was extremely impressive. The scouting report lives here. Here is the film:

Burke scored his 1,000th point on Friday in a blowout win over Brookhaven. In a Monday night game with Linden-McKinley, Burke notched 32 points on 9 of 16 (2-5 3pt) shooting with seven assists, four steals, and one turnover.

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Big Ten Roundup: February 8th, 2011

Team W L Poss. Off. Eff. Def. Eff. Eff. Margin
Wisconsin 7 3 57 1.20 1.03 0.17
Ohio State 11 0 63 1.15 0.99 0.16
Purdue 7 3 64 1.15 1.05 0.10
Illinois 5 5 63 1.10 1.03 0.07
Penn State 5 6 59 1.07 1.09 -0.02
Minnesota 5 6 62 1.07 1.10 -0.03
Indiana 3 8 64 1.07 1.13 -0.06
Northwestern 4 7 64 1.08 1.15 -0.07
Michigan State 5 6 64 1.03 1.10 -0.07
Michigan 4 7 60 1.06 1.16 -0.10
Iowa 3 8 66 1.00 1.12 -0.12

The tempo free stats in scatterplot form live here. All efficiency numbers are for conference play only.

The middle of the Big Ten becomes more confusing by the day. Eight Big Ten teams have 3-5 wins and the conference race, making it almost impossible to separate contenders from pretenders. The efficiency numbers infer that some teams might be better than their record indicates (Illinois and Indiana) while others might be worse (Michigan State, Michigan).

When you look down the list, it’s tough to find a team without glaring issues at the moment. Michigan State has lost 5 of 6 games and Illinois has lost 5 of 7. Minnesota is on a three game losing streak and without a point guard. Penn State just blew a 10 point lead to lose to Michigan at home. Indiana just lost at home to Iowa, who is also 3-8. Northwestern finally notched a quality win, at home over Illinois, but sits at just 4-7. Sometimes it’s tough to tell whether we have good teams beating up on each other or a bunch of mediocre teams stuck in neutral.

John Gasaway notes that what is truly amazing about the Big Ten this season is the lack of any terrible teams. Unfortunately all of those ‘OK’ teams are a thorn in the side of the teams that are trying to bolster their NCAA tournament resumes.  Teams like Michigan, Northwestern, Indiana, and Iowa aren’t likely to go dancing but they are all capable of knocking off a team or two in the upper half of the league.

At the top, anticipation grows for Ohio State and Wisconsin’s showdown at the Kohl Center this Saturday. More on that after the jump in Joe’s feature. — Dylan Burkhardt

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2011 Recruiting: Not Done Yet?

Greg Stewart of the PJ Star published a report today that Michigan hosted Peoria Notre Dame (IL) big man, 6-6/6-7/6-8 Max Bielfeldt on an unofficial visit over the weekend. Stewart quotes Bielfeldt that Michigan has not offered him a scholarship but continues to pursue 2011 prospects.

Michigan assistant Jeff Meyer attended Notre Dame’s 58-51 victory at Manual on Jan. 28. The next day, following the Irish’s 55-39 win at Bloomington, Bielfeldt hopped in the car and made the six-hour drive to Ann Arbor.

“It was pretty cool,” Bielfeldt said. “I really, really liked what I saw there.”

Bielfeldt continued to say that was not given a scholarship offer that weekend, but that he would certainly be interested if Michigan did offer. He was told that Wolverines head coach John Beilein plans to watch an upcoming game and that Michigan has narrowed down its final scholarship offer in the Class of 2011 to Bielfeldt and another player (who he didn’t know).

Bielfeldt has been posting gaudy numbers this season against quality competition, including 39 points and 13 rebounds versus 2012 Purdue commit Jay Simpson. Illinois and Valparaiso also recently hosted Max on unofficial visits. Illinois has offered Bielfeldt a preferred walk-on slot. Michigan has already taken Sai Tummala as a preferred walk-on and has been very aggressive with the walk-on program, so that is also a possibility. We’ll have more on Bielfeldt when we get the chance to catch up with him.

Whether Bielfeldt gets an offer (or a preferred walk-on offer) or not, this does prove that Michigan is continuing to pursue 2011 prospects and is not opposed to adding one more member to the class.

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