It wasn’t easy but not many teams have walked over the Wildcats at Welsh-Ryan this year. Purdue and Illinois won one possession games after late Northwestern collapses. Wisconsin and Minnesota weren’t so fortunate, they both made the bus ride home from Evanston empty handed. As a Michigan fan you have to be happy with a road win against a team with only three home losses in conference play to the top three teams in the league, no matter how ugly.

The player of the game was Manny Harris. Manny struggled early on in the first half and picked up his second personal foul with 11 minutes to play. Harris sat for the last eleven minutes of the but the supporting cast did enough to keep Michigan in the game. Manny got off to a hot start in the second half with a 9-0 run of his own that gave Michigan life and finished with 25 points in the second half and overtime. Harris finished the game with 26 points on 15 shots, 3 rebounds, 3 steals, 3 assists, 1 block, and 1 turnover in his best half of the season.

Going back to the checklist for beating Northwestern, I’d say Michigan was lucky to win this one. We repeatedly turned it over, struggled from long range, and didn’t do a good job on the glass. Looking at the numbers it is even clearer that the only reason Michigan won this game was due to a herculean effort by Manny Harris. The two factors Michigan won were shooting defense and the free throw battle. Michigan posted a free throw rate of 60% which is one of their best marks this season. The numbers are pretty skewed because the officials decided that they were going to send people to the line at will in the second half. 45 fouls were called in the game and there were 38 free throws combined — most of which came in the second half.

Michigan held Northwestern to an eFG% of only 43%, their third lowest total of the season. Michigan’s solid defense did a great job of forcing Northwestern into bad shots. Northwestern’s scoring duo of Craig Moore and Kevin Coble combined to shoot 7 of 27 from the field. The improvement in shooting defense has been remarkable since CJ Lee entered the starting lineup. The last four games have been Michigan’s first four game stretch where they held opponents to an eFG% under 50%. I don’t have time to go through backcourt numbers but CJ Lee did a remarkable job on Talor Battle, AJ Price, Kalin Lucas, and Michael Thompson over the last four games.

The turnovers were awful today. Michigan turned the ball over on 25.8% of their possessions and really struggled with Northwestern’s pressure defense all game. You might not expect it from looking at them but Northwestern forces turnovers just as well as anyone else in the country. They force turnovers on 25.1% of opponents possessions (14th nationally), a better number than teams that are known for their defense like UCLA and Duke.

The turnovers at the end of the game were frustrating and nearly cost Michigan the game. Fans want to see Kelvin Grady on the floor but John Beilein is learning just how important defense is to winning in the Big Ten. Michigan can’t afford to give up points in bunches if they want to stay in games. CJ Lee is the best on-the-ball defender on this team and that is going to keep him on the floor. When Grady got on the floor late he was matched up with Craig Moore and allowed Moore to get a wide open look from three that would have tied the game because he didn’t fight through a screen (this is a theme). Would I like to see Grady play a little bit? Sure, but I don’t think Beilein is going to let him sniff the court until he steps it up on defense.

This was a “must win” and Michigan did just enough to pull it out. Despite a couple disappointing losses in conference play Michigan has won their fair share of games they had to have including the Illinois, Iowa, and Northwestern home games. Thursday’s game against the struggling Gophers is every bit as important as this one. Minnesota has dropped three of their last four, their win was 62-54 at home over the Hoosiers. A win on Thursday would move Michigan back to .500 in conference play and setup an exciting home stretch.

Player Bullets:

• Manny Harris: Extraordinary game from Manny. He started out slow and was hoisting too many three point shots but once he started getting to the basket he took over the game. Manny hit huge shots in overtime as well as late in the second half and credit for this win lies firmly on his shoulders.
• CJ Lee: There is no denying that CJ struggled a bit, he turned it over a couple times and almost let the game slip away down the stretch in the second half. In the end, despite missing 2 out of 4 free throws early in the game, CJ hit the two biggest free throws of the game that just about iced the game for Michigan.
• DeShawn Sims: Peedi played hard for the most part but was limited by foul trouble and not getting the ball enough. He could do a better job of establishing position but his teammates could do a better job getting him the ball when he does get position. Peedi finished with 8 points on 4 of 6 shooting, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 turnovers before fouling out on what could be called nothing other than a phantom foul. I also have to give Peedi credit for finishing the big dunk in overtime despite Kevin Coble sticking his arm through the basket (see above).
• Laval Lucas-Perry: Great to see Laval get some of his offensive game back. 10 points including a three point make and five free throws, he definitely had a couple of very careless turnovers. His drive and finish on the fast break was really something but I think Laval needs to stick to 10-15 minutes per game for the next couple to work him back slowly.
• Stu Douglass: Not his best offensive performance but he did a great job on Craig Moore. Moore is a 42% shooter from behind the arc and Stu stuck to him like glue. 4 shots, 4 misses, 4 assists, and 4 turnovers isn’t great but I’ll take it with the defense.
• Zack Novak: This is probably what we would expect from a consistent Zack Novak night in and night out: 7 points (2-5 3pt), 7 rebounds, 1 assist, and 2 turnovers. Zack plays hard and he gave up a lot of size but hustled on the glass and for loose balls while also knocking down two triples.
• Zack Gibson: Gibson played a very solid 19 minutes. 6 points, 4 rebounds, and a monster block for Zack is about all you can ask for. Gibson has really struggled at the stripe but other than that I have been pretty pleased with what he has given in quick bursts.
• Anthony Wright: Ant was forced into action when Novak and Harris got in foul trouble and he hit a big three in the first half to go along with two turnovers, an assist, and a steal. Asking Anthony Wright to guard Kevin Coble really isn’t fair to him though. It appears that Beilein would rather go with Ant than Shepherd. Anthony is 4-7 from long range in the last four games and 3 of 4 in the last three.
• Dave Merritt: Hit a big first half tree but otherwise didn’t do much. Dave is never going to be a big scoring threat but as long as he can hit the occasional three point shot he will still get his 10-15 minutes per game I think. According to the box score he didn’t turn the ball over but he also got backdoored pretty good once. I’m sure the argument will be that Grady deserves those 10-15 minutes but it appears that Beilein is siding with the 5th (6th?) year senior in this one.

Basics:
Who: Michigan  (15-10) at Northwestern (13-9)
Where: Evanston, IL
When: Sunday, February 15th, 3 PM ET
TV: BTN
Spread: NW by 3.5
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, NW KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Opposition Blog: Lake the Posts

Michigan goes for the season sweep of the Wildcats and hopes to keep the NCAA tournament dream alive. The Wildcats have only lost three home games in conference play and they were to arguably the top teams in the league: MSU, Purdue, and Illinois. Northwestern choked away both the Purdue and Illinois games and probably should have one home loss were it not for those two epic collapses.

The keys to beating Northwestern hardly ever change from year to year so I’m just going to pull this out of my last post:

• Don’t turn the ball over against the 1-3-1.
• Knock down your 3-point looks.
• Make good interior passes to beat the zone.
• Force the Northwestern players to try to beat you off the dribble, rather than giving up open 3-point looks or back-door cuts.
• Take advantage of your big edge on the boards.

In the first matchup Michigan did at least four of these five things very well:

• Turnover percentage of 15.8%
• 9-27 three point shooting
• 15 points for DeShawn Sims inside
• They didn’t quite eliminate the three point shot, Northwestern was 10-27 on three pointers but they weren’t a major factor in the game.
• 40.6% offensive rebounding percentage compared to Northwestern’s 9.7%, Michigan’s largest rebounding% margin all year.

The big difference in the game was that Michigan got to the free throw line and Northwestern didn’t. The Wildcats only had 3 free throw attempts in the game while Michigan had 18. Michigan pretty much coasted through the first contest but I don’t think this one will be as easy.

Kevin Coble had a huge game in Ann Arbor but he just didn’t get enough support. Craig Moore and Michael Thompson both managed double figures but they were a combined 8 of 21 from three point range. Things could get dicey if a couple more of those shots fall and that is the risk you run while playing Northwestern.

Northwestern’s statistical profile is not much different than it was before. They shoot the ball well (especially from long range) while dominating the turnover battle. Luckily they can’t get to the free throw line or pull down rebounds. You can also count on a slow game because both Michigan and Northwestern love to slow the game down; the first match-up was only a 57 possession game. For more of an in depth look at their statistical profile and personnel, check out my preview of the first game.

This game looks very winnable except for the fact that it is a Big Ten road game. Michigan has exactly 1 road win this year and it came in overtime against the worst team in the league. They have given a couple teams (UConn and Maryland) a scare but just haven’t figured out how to win road games. Evanston isn’t a parciularly tough road trip but Northwestern has played well at home this year. Hopefully the Maize Ragers and alumni in attendance can give this team the boost they need.

UMquasi made a very interesting post in the comments section where he pointed out that Michigan has been a dramatically better team when they have 3 or more days of rest.

Record with 3+ Days Rest 11-2
Record with 0-2 Days Rest 4-9
Those 4 wins without rest were against Northeastern, Duke, Florida Gulf Coast, and IU and the two losses  on 3+ days of rest were to Ohio State and at Maryland.

A lot of factors come into play here but I think this is a valid observation. This is certainly an advantage to give to Michigan, especially because Northwestern played last night. A lot of this is coaching and proper time to prepare but we are also dealing with a team that is wearing down. This team just played three games in six days, two against top 10 teams, so they certainly could use some rest. UMquasi also points out that four of Michigan’s final six games are on 3+ days of rest.

Bubble Bullets:

• Watch out for Wisconsin. The Badgers are 6-6 right now and close with an easy stretch: OSU, @IU, @MSU, U-M, @Minn, IU. With two games left against the Hoosiers I have a hard time seeing Wisconsin not get to 9-9 in conference. Their computer numbers are nice as well with an RPI of 30 and the #4 schedule in the country.
• Bye-Bye Nittany Lions. Penn State has lost 3 in a row thanks in large part to Talor Battle’s disappearance. PSU finishes against Minnesota, @Ill, @OSU, IU, Ill, and @Iowa. Penn State probably needed an 11-7 finish in the Big Ten to make the tournament with their poor strength of schedule and RPI and I’d say a home loss this weekend would probably be the end of their tournament hopes.
• So what? MSU, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, and Ohio State look like locks to dance right now. I think Michigan and Wisconsin are the other two teams fighting for a chance. There was speculation in the non-conference season about 7 teams dancing from the Big Ten but that talk has died down a bit. I guess if Michigan and Wisconsin put themselves in the right position they would both be considered “hot” teams on selection sunday.
• Head-to-head. Joe Lunardi wrote a recent article about how head-to-head records don’t matter (much) which should be a bit encouraging in regard to U-M vs Wisconsin. The key is the overall resume. Both Michigan and Wisconsin have very tough schedules but it is time for Michigan fans to start paying attention to what would seem like otherwise trivial games. For example, Virginia Tech at Maryland this Saturday, a Maryland win would probably knock Tech out of the RPI top 50. This would knock Wisconsin’s record vs RPI top 50 teams to 1-7 compared to Michigan’s 3-8.

In the end I think a 9-9 record still does it. Michigan was repeatedly left out of the field with a .500 conference record under the Tommy Amaker regime but the difference here is that Michigan has the peripherals to differentiate themselves: two big non conference wins, top 20 strength of schedule, and the #2 conference RPI.

There are 6 games left and Michigan needs 4 wins. We are running out of chances and the odds get longer with every loss. Personally I’m get of sick of rationalizing with the fact that we could win one down the road. In the true sense of the word we won’t technically have a must win until we have to win every game left but every game we get closer.

Thoughts, predictions, theories, and in-game discussion are encouraged in the comments.

Pre-Game Reading:

• Game 23: Michigan @ Northwestern
  Which team handles the “must-win” situation?
• The No-Stats All-Star
  Money (Basket)ball from Michael Lewis in the New York Times Magazine
• Physical Big Ten could cause Beilein to adapt
  “There are times I get fouled sometimes and it’s so blatant. Other times against other teams … I look at other games and I don’t see things that happen in the Big Ten in other games,” Sims said.
• A Whole New Ballgame That Williams Won’t Play
  A look at how crazy some stuff is in the recruiting game/AAU scene and how unwilling Gary Williams is to “play the game”
• Big Ten has the best set of coaches when it comes to tourney performance
  Pete Tiernan guest blogs for ‘Geeks
• On Men’s Basketball: Sports Illustrated writer sees NCAA Tournament for Michigan
  Seth Davis
• Borton’s Blog: Coasting to the finish ($)
  Borton and McCormick
• Must-Win Mode?
  A breakdown from ESPN of the weekend’s action including bubble dreams
• Preview: Ohio State at Wisconsin
  I guess we have to root for Ohio State? Or is it too early for that.

Michigan State pulls out the ugly win in a 55 possession game in Ann Arbor.

Michigan got off to a decent start but the wheels started falling off when Stu Douglass picked up his second foul with 10:35 remaining. Michigan was down 11-10 at that point but Michigan State finished the half on a 12-5 run over the next 10 minutes. Michigan scored only 2 points in the last 9 minutes of the half, the offense just couldn’t produce once Douglass went to the bench.

I’m not sure exactly why but I think going forward this team needs Douglass on the court a lot more than 17 minutes. Even when Douglass isn’t hitting his shots he makes the right pass or the right cut, and everything flows. With Lucas-Perry on the floor the offense is much more stagnant and usually resulted in a Manny Harris isolation play with less than 10 seconds on the shot clock. This happened at least 4 or 5 times in the first half and Manny didn’t get any good looks.

The first half really spiraled out of control in the final 2 minutes when a four point lead ballooned to eight. That might not sound like a lot but these three plays really swung the momentum in Michigan State’s favor at halftime:

• Korie Lucious double dribble is missed, ends up in easy Michigan State layup.
• A Grady three pointer rattles around the rim before rolling out.
• Gibson misses two free throws after an intentional foul negates what was an easy dunk before Novak’s three point attempt is blocked.

The second half was a different beast. Michigan made several runs in the second half and then Michigan State would push the lead back to double digits. Michigan just couldn’t get over the hump as they continuously shot themselves in the foot. You have to give credit to Michigan State for making the big plays but a lot of the blame falls on Michigan for not making the plays themselves. Every time that Michigan had a chance to cut the lead to one possession something happened; anything from an easy baby hook that rolled in and out, a turnover right after a steal, an errant pass out of bounds or poor shot selection — there was always something.

Michigan had the lead cut to four points with 4:25 left to play but a Manny Harris pull up three point shot bricked off the iron before Kalin Lucas drained a three pointer on the other end. Michigan forced a turnover after cutting the back down to 5 points after a pair of Douglass free throws. But in the end, Manny Harris tried to take it himself on the 2 on 3 fastbreak and Travis Walton made a hell of a play to knock the ball out. Those were probably Michigan’s two best chances to really make this a game.

The fact that Michigan even had a chance late in the game is remarkable when you consider that they were 4 of 24 from long range and turned the ball over on 23.6% of their possessions. In the end the difference in this game was at the free throw line. Michigan State got to the line more often with a free throw rate of 44.2% to Michigan’s 23.9% and also shot a higher percentage when they got there (78.9% compared to Michigan’s dreadful 54.5%). Michigan held tough on the glass but in the end turnovers and poor shooting got the best of them.

The good news is that this team seems to have learned how to play defense. The bad news is that they still can’t seem to play solid offense in conference. This loss hurts for a multitude of reasons but most of all it is now or never for Michigan’s NCAA tournament hopes. The next four games will determine Michigan’s tournament chances: @Northwestern, Minnesota, @Iowa, and Purdue. At this point it looks like Michigan probably needs a 4-game winning streak.

Quick Notes: Trey Zeigler was at the game and got an earful from the Michigan State team as they ran by after the final buzzer. Is there any kind of penalty for a coach being on the floor during play? I guess not if you are Tom Izzo.

Player Bullets:

• DeShawn Sims: Great game for DeShawn, without him this would have be a rout. Peedi had a monster second half en route to 18 points on 9 of 14 shooting with 4 rebounds and a steal. DeShawn did all of his work down low until late in the game and if he can find that post presence down the stretch that would be a big boost for Michigan.
• Manny Harris: Not Manny’s greatest game to say the least. There were several people calling for Manny’s head in the comments and after watching the game again I wouldn’t go quite that far. Manny definitely didn’t have a good game but Travis Walton is a great defender and watching the tape he did a great job on Manny all night. Manny also had 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals so he contributed in other ways. He did get backdoored at least once (on the alley oop) and I think once more in the second half by Durrell Summers; falling asleep on defense has to stop.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: Ugh, nothing good here. Laval hit a three but he just looked bad all around. Bad defense, bad offense, bad ball handling. I don’t know what to do here. Right now this system isn’t clicking for Laval Lucas-Perry, his struggles go well beyond a shooting slump.
• Zack Novak: Novak is a gamer, he is clearly worn down from guarding big men all year long but he had some flashes of great play. His best stretch included a three point make, a three point miss followed by an offensive board and dish to Sims, and a great back door pass to Sims for a dunk.
• Stu Douglass: Stu can’t afford to pick up that many fouls. Some of them were cheap and some of them were on hustle plays but at this point Michigan needs Stu on the floor.
• Zack Gibson: Besides those two missed free throws this was a great game for Zack. He did just about everything that you could ask of him in my book.
• CJ Lee: I found out when I got home that CJ was throwing up in a trash can during the second half. There is nothing you can’t love about this kid. Michigan could use a little scoring out of CJ but I thought he did a great job against Kalin Lucas despite Lucas scoring a few points down the stretch.
• Kelvin Grady, Jevohn Shepherd, Dave Merritt: These three gave Michigan nothing.

Basics:
Who: Michigan State (19-4) at Michigan  (15-9)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Tuesday, February 9th, 7 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: MSU by 4 (and rising)
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, MSU KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Opposition Blog: Spartans Weblog

Programming Note: I got tapped to guest blog over at MGoBlog so head over there to check out my attempt to put my feelings about this rivalry on paper. And just in case you missed it, KJ and I posted Q&As about our respective teams.

Michigan tries to build off of their impressive performance at UConn with their fifth match-up against a top 10 team this year. Michigan State has hit some rough patches this year but they are in the drivers seat in the Big Ten title and look like they will grab their first conference crown since 2001. In previous years the Spartans have continuously fell short of the Big Ten championship because of their inability to win on the road — this isn’t your big brother’s Spartan team, Michigan State is 5-0 on the road in conference play, a stark improvement over years past.  Michigan State’s two conference losses have actually come in the friendly confines of the Jack Breslin Center.

So how did this Michigan State team get to 19-4? Rebounding, rebounding, and more rebounding. Michigan State is easily the best rebounding team in the country. They are the only team that ranks in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. Michigan State has rebounded over 40% of their misses in 12 of their 23 games, compare that to Michigan who has posted an offensive rebounded percentage over 40% just 5 times this year.

Beyond rebounding the Spartans don’t do any specific thing exceptionally well. Their overall adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies both rank in the top 30 nationally. Their offense comes in 10th at 116.0 while their defense only allowed 90.4 (27th). Michigan State reached their top 10 offensive rating while not ranking in the top 50 in any single key component. Their defense on the other hand ranks 27th but doesn’t rank in the top 100 in any single defensive component besides rebounding.

Luckily for the Spartans there aren’t any glaring weaknesses on their resume either. If I had to pick things to call “weaknesses” I would say that their free throw shooting percentage and turnover numbers leave something to be desired but they are not far from national averages. The MSU recipe for success is clear: dominate the glass and do a solid but unspectacular job at everything.

All of this rebounding talk has to be troubling for Michigan fans. Michigan hasn’t done a good job on the glass all year, their offensive rebounding percentage of 30.2% ranks 259th and their defensive rebounding percentage of 76.3% ranks 181st. Not to mention the fact that UConn just dominated Michigan on the boards, pulling down over 50% of their misses. The encouraging part is that Michigan has found ways to win even when being out-rebounded. This strategy revolves around turnovers, Michigan needs to win the turnover battle to help make up for the almost certain MSU domination on the glass.

Michigan has found a little bit of life after inserting CJ Lee and Zack Gibson into the starting line up and I wouldn’t expect any changes tonight. Kelvin Grady will be locked on the bench until he picks up his defense, especially when the opposing point guard is Kalin Lucas.

Izzo is claiming that Raymar Morgan won’t play because he is still battling pneumonia, mono, the flu, and every other diagnosis out there. I’ll believe it when I see it because I’m sure Ray would love to play in this one and he poses a big matchup problem for Michigan. I’m sure Michigan fans are familiar with point guard Kalin Lucas and freshman power forward Delvon Roe as they both were Michigan recruits at one time. Goran Suton provides the scoring punch inside and Travis Walton is the lockdown defender that will undoubtedly draw the Manny Harris assignment.

Michigan needs to bring their “A” game to have a chance against the Spartans and they will definitely need a boost from the supporting cast. That could mean anyone from Laval Lucas-Perry to Stu Douglass to Zack Gibson. Michigan won’t beat MSU by just leaning on the “big 2″. Then again, I don’t think they can win without solid games from both Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. Michigan State just isn’t the type of team you can beat with a mediocre performance.

Most bracketologists have Michigan as one of the last teams out or the last teams in and the consensus is that a 9-9 in conference record would punch Michigan’s ticket to the dance. To get there Michigan is going to have to win some tough games and a win tonight would be a huge step in the right direction.

Thoughts, predictions, and in-game discussion go in the comments.

Pre-Game Reading (updated throughout the day):

• A Rivalry Renewed
  My post on MGoBlog
• UCLA Is Good: Wildly Underrated, Too
  Gasaway on the Bruins
• Michigan Game Preview: Choose-Your-Own-Adventure Edition
  KJ breaks down the stats
• Rivalry bullets
  Quotes from both sides
• MSU’s Morgan unlikely to play vs. U-M
  I’ll believe it when I see it.
• LAGE ON HOOPS: MSU-UM matchup huge for both teams
• University of Michigan’s Stu Douglass takes advantage of being overlooked
  “Oh, you’re getting zero minutes,” the student told Douglass.
• Best of U-M/MSU hoops photos
• John Beilein hopes for frosh to click tonight
  That would be nice
• Tom Izzo’s U-M animosity morphed into respect