Michigan State pulls out the ugly win in a 55 possession game in Ann Arbor.

Michigan got off to a decent start but the wheels started falling off when Stu Douglass picked up his second foul with 10:35 remaining. Michigan was down 11-10 at that point but Michigan State finished the half on a 12-5 run over the next 10 minutes. Michigan scored only 2 points in the last 9 minutes of the half, the offense just couldn’t produce once Douglass went to the bench.

I’m not sure exactly why but I think going forward this team needs Douglass on the court a lot more than 17 minutes. Even when Douglass isn’t hitting his shots he makes the right pass or the right cut, and everything flows. With Lucas-Perry on the floor the offense is much more stagnant and usually resulted in a Manny Harris isolation play with less than 10 seconds on the shot clock. This happened at least 4 or 5 times in the first half and Manny didn’t get any good looks.

The first half really spiraled out of control in the final 2 minutes when a four point lead ballooned to eight. That might not sound like a lot but these three plays really swung the momentum in Michigan State’s favor at halftime:

• Korie Lucious double dribble is missed, ends up in easy Michigan State layup.
• A Grady three pointer rattles around the rim before rolling out.
• Gibson misses two free throws after an intentional foul negates what was an easy dunk before Novak’s three point attempt is blocked.

The second half was a different beast. Michigan made several runs in the second half and then Michigan State would push the lead back to double digits. Michigan just couldn’t get over the hump as they continuously shot themselves in the foot. You have to give credit to Michigan State for making the big plays but a lot of the blame falls on Michigan for not making the plays themselves. Every time that Michigan had a chance to cut the lead to one possession something happened; anything from an easy baby hook that rolled in and out, a turnover right after a steal, an errant pass out of bounds or poor shot selection — there was always something.

Michigan had the lead cut to four points with 4:25 left to play but a Manny Harris pull up three point shot bricked off the iron before Kalin Lucas drained a three pointer on the other end. Michigan forced a turnover after cutting the back down to 5 points after a pair of Douglass free throws. But in the end, Manny Harris tried to take it himself on the 2 on 3 fastbreak and Travis Walton made a hell of a play to knock the ball out. Those were probably Michigan’s two best chances to really make this a game.

The fact that Michigan even had a chance late in the game is remarkable when you consider that they were 4 of 24 from long range and turned the ball over on 23.6% of their possessions. In the end the difference in this game was at the free throw line. Michigan State got to the line more often with a free throw rate of 44.2% to Michigan’s 23.9% and also shot a higher percentage when they got there (78.9% compared to Michigan’s dreadful 54.5%). Michigan held tough on the glass but in the end turnovers and poor shooting got the best of them.

The good news is that this team seems to have learned how to play defense. The bad news is that they still can’t seem to play solid offense in conference. This loss hurts for a multitude of reasons but most of all it is now or never for Michigan’s NCAA tournament hopes. The next four games will determine Michigan’s tournament chances: @Northwestern, Minnesota, @Iowa, and Purdue. At this point it looks like Michigan probably needs a 4-game winning streak.

Quick Notes: Trey Zeigler was at the game and got an earful from the Michigan State team as they ran by after the final buzzer. Is there any kind of penalty for a coach being on the floor during play? I guess not if you are Tom Izzo.

Player Bullets:

• DeShawn Sims: Great game for DeShawn, without him this would have be a rout. Peedi had a monster second half en route to 18 points on 9 of 14 shooting with 4 rebounds and a steal. DeShawn did all of his work down low until late in the game and if he can find that post presence down the stretch that would be a big boost for Michigan.
• Manny Harris: Not Manny’s greatest game to say the least. There were several people calling for Manny’s head in the comments and after watching the game again I wouldn’t go quite that far. Manny definitely didn’t have a good game but Travis Walton is a great defender and watching the tape he did a great job on Manny all night. Manny also had 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals so he contributed in other ways. He did get backdoored at least once (on the alley oop) and I think once more in the second half by Durrell Summers; falling asleep on defense has to stop.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: Ugh, nothing good here. Laval hit a three but he just looked bad all around. Bad defense, bad offense, bad ball handling. I don’t know what to do here. Right now this system isn’t clicking for Laval Lucas-Perry, his struggles go well beyond a shooting slump.
• Zack Novak: Novak is a gamer, he is clearly worn down from guarding big men all year long but he had some flashes of great play. His best stretch included a three point make, a three point miss followed by an offensive board and dish to Sims, and a great back door pass to Sims for a dunk.
• Stu Douglass: Stu can’t afford to pick up that many fouls. Some of them were cheap and some of them were on hustle plays but at this point Michigan needs Stu on the floor.
• Zack Gibson: Besides those two missed free throws this was a great game for Zack. He did just about everything that you could ask of him in my book.
• CJ Lee: I found out when I got home that CJ was throwing up in a trash can during the second half. There is nothing you can’t love about this kid. Michigan could use a little scoring out of CJ but I thought he did a great job against Kalin Lucas despite Lucas scoring a few points down the stretch.
• Kelvin Grady, Jevohn Shepherd, Dave Merritt: These three gave Michigan nothing.

Basics:
Who: Michigan State (19-4) at Michigan  (15-9)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Tuesday, February 9th, 7 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: MSU by 4 (and rising)
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, MSU KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Opposition Blog: Spartans Weblog

Programming Note: I got tapped to guest blog over at MGoBlog so head over there to check out my attempt to put my feelings about this rivalry on paper. And just in case you missed it, KJ and I posted Q&As about our respective teams.

Michigan tries to build off of their impressive performance at UConn with their fifth match-up against a top 10 team this year. Michigan State has hit some rough patches this year but they are in the drivers seat in the Big Ten title and look like they will grab their first conference crown since 2001. In previous years the Spartans have continuously fell short of the Big Ten championship because of their inability to win on the road — this isn’t your big brother’s Spartan team, Michigan State is 5-0 on the road in conference play, a stark improvement over years past.  Michigan State’s two conference losses have actually come in the friendly confines of the Jack Breslin Center.

So how did this Michigan State team get to 19-4? Rebounding, rebounding, and more rebounding. Michigan State is easily the best rebounding team in the country. They are the only team that ranks in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive rebounding percentages. Michigan State has rebounded over 40% of their misses in 12 of their 23 games, compare that to Michigan who has posted an offensive rebounded percentage over 40% just 5 times this year.

Beyond rebounding the Spartans don’t do any specific thing exceptionally well. Their overall adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies both rank in the top 30 nationally. Their offense comes in 10th at 116.0 while their defense only allowed 90.4 (27th). Michigan State reached their top 10 offensive rating while not ranking in the top 50 in any single key component. Their defense on the other hand ranks 27th but doesn’t rank in the top 100 in any single defensive component besides rebounding.

Luckily for the Spartans there aren’t any glaring weaknesses on their resume either. If I had to pick things to call “weaknesses” I would say that their free throw shooting percentage and turnover numbers leave something to be desired but they are not far from national averages. The MSU recipe for success is clear: dominate the glass and do a solid but unspectacular job at everything.

All of this rebounding talk has to be troubling for Michigan fans. Michigan hasn’t done a good job on the glass all year, their offensive rebounding percentage of 30.2% ranks 259th and their defensive rebounding percentage of 76.3% ranks 181st. Not to mention the fact that UConn just dominated Michigan on the boards, pulling down over 50% of their misses. The encouraging part is that Michigan has found ways to win even when being out-rebounded. This strategy revolves around turnovers, Michigan needs to win the turnover battle to help make up for the almost certain MSU domination on the glass.

Michigan has found a little bit of life after inserting CJ Lee and Zack Gibson into the starting line up and I wouldn’t expect any changes tonight. Kelvin Grady will be locked on the bench until he picks up his defense, especially when the opposing point guard is Kalin Lucas.

Izzo is claiming that Raymar Morgan won’t play because he is still battling pneumonia, mono, the flu, and every other diagnosis out there. I’ll believe it when I see it because I’m sure Ray would love to play in this one and he poses a big matchup problem for Michigan. I’m sure Michigan fans are familiar with point guard Kalin Lucas and freshman power forward Delvon Roe as they both were Michigan recruits at one time. Goran Suton provides the scoring punch inside and Travis Walton is the lockdown defender that will undoubtedly draw the Manny Harris assignment.

Michigan needs to bring their “A” game to have a chance against the Spartans and they will definitely need a boost from the supporting cast. That could mean anyone from Laval Lucas-Perry to Stu Douglass to Zack Gibson. Michigan won’t beat MSU by just leaning on the “big 2″. Then again, I don’t think they can win without solid games from both Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. Michigan State just isn’t the type of team you can beat with a mediocre performance.

Most bracketologists have Michigan as one of the last teams out or the last teams in and the consensus is that a 9-9 in conference record would punch Michigan’s ticket to the dance. To get there Michigan is going to have to win some tough games and a win tonight would be a huge step in the right direction.

Thoughts, predictions, and in-game discussion go in the comments.

Pre-Game Reading (updated throughout the day):

• A Rivalry Renewed
  My post on MGoBlog
• UCLA Is Good: Wildly Underrated, Too
  Gasaway on the Bruins
• Michigan Game Preview: Choose-Your-Own-Adventure Edition
  KJ breaks down the stats
• Rivalry bullets
  Quotes from both sides
• MSU’s Morgan unlikely to play vs. U-M
  I’ll believe it when I see it.
• LAGE ON HOOPS: MSU-UM matchup huge for both teams
• University of Michigan’s Stu Douglass takes advantage of being overlooked
  “Oh, you’re getting zero minutes,” the student told Douglass.
• Best of U-M/MSU hoops photos
• John Beilein hopes for frosh to click tonight
  That would be nice
• Tom Izzo’s U-M animosity morphed into respect

KJ from the Spartans Weblog agreed to answer a few questions about Michigan State before the big game on Tuesday night. If you want some Michigan talk, I also answered a few questions over on his site. KJ is one of the best in the business and does a great job covering Michigan State basketball and his site is definitely worth a read even for Michigan fans.

Is this the year Michigan State finally wins the Big Ten? It seems like the last several years have been disappointments in-conference for MSU, what makes this year a success?
With a two-game lead on the rest of the conference, it’s pretty easy to be confident about our chances of winning the league title at this point.  But I’ve felt pretty good about our chances for a while now.  This team is built the way a good Tom Izzo team needs to be built–with depth, versatility, and ferocious rebounding.  If we don’t win the league title, it will be an enormous disappointment.  Given the team’s perfect road record to date, I have a hard time seeing them collapse down the stretch.

What is the latest with Raymar Morgan? Should Michigan fans expect to see him Tuesday?
He was talking last week about wanting to be back for this game.  But the signs are pointing toward him not playing.  From what I’ve read, it takes several weeks to get your endurance back after a bout with mononucleosis.  And Izzo seems to believe it’s better to have the team know they can’t rely on Morgan than to have him play a few minutes here and there.  I think his absence will hurt a little more in this game than it has in previous games, as Morgan tends to take advantage of teams with smaller lineups like Michigan’s.

Who do you want taking the shot with the game on the line?
The obvious answer is Kalin Lucas.  He’s provided Izzo with that playmaker who can create off the dribble in the late minutes of games that we really haven’t had since Mateen Cleaves.  And he’s got a greak knack for knocking down difficult shots in the lane when we really need a bucket.  But Durrell Summers and Goran Suton have both shown they can make tough shots in key situations, too.  So defenses can’t overcommit to Lucas.

Who has been the most surprising player this year for MSU? And the most disappointing?
Durrell Summers has really emerged as a go-to player in Morgan’s absence.  He’s taken on the Morris Peterson role as a guy who can shoot the three, score in transition, and crash the glass from the perimeter.  He’s coming off a bad game vs. Indiana (0-8 from beyond the arc), but I expect him to bounce back and knock some shots down over the 1-3-1 zone.

Chris Allen, meanwhile, hasn’t been the consistent perimeter shooting threat we were counting on.  He’s made only 32.0% of his 3-point attempts on the season.  He’s 7-14 in his last two games, though, so his stroke might be back just in time for Tuesday’s game.

Generally, the MSU players have all played their assigned roles pretty well this season, though.  The biggest disappointments have really been injuries: Delvon Roe’s preseason knee surgery, followed by Suton’s knee issue in December, followed by Morgan’s prolonged sickness.  We’re all crossing our fingers everyone we’ll be at full health by next month.

Who (if anyone) would start for MSU from Michigan’s roster?
That’s a tough one.  Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims are both clearly more talented than their MSU counterparts (Walton/Summers and Roe, respectively).  But it’s hard to envision how they’d fit into the MSU lineup given that Tom Izzo tends to have very specific roles/expectations for each player in his lineup.  I suspect Harris would be less free to use his one-on-one skills and Sims wouldn’t have quite as much freedom to roam around the perimeter.

Anyway, short answer: Harris and Sims are both clearly Big Ten-champion-level players.  From what I’ve seen, they’re just asked to do too much to make up for an inexperienced supporting cast.

Which Big Ten teams are going dancing?
MSU, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, and Minnesota look like they should all make it, barring a complete collapse down the stretch.  That leaves Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn State as the remaining candidates.  My guess is that no more than one of those teams makes it in the end.  The schedule favors Wisconsin, with two games remaining against Indiana.  But Michigan’s two quality nonconference wins give you guys more margin for error.  Penn State, I think, will get squeezed out due to the lack of quality nonconference opponents.  So I’ll say six teams make it–with the March 1 Wisconsin-Michigan game in Madison as the sixth team.  A seventh team making it will probably require somebody upsetting a top-five team in the conference tournament (after having had to play a Thursday game to get to that point).

Let’s hear a score prediction for Tuesday night and your surprise player of the game.
Kenpom predicts a 71-66 MSU win.  I think the game will be lower scoring than that, with the 1-3-1 slowing MSU down and Travis Walton frustrating Manny Harris’ attempts to initiate the Michigan offense.  Unless your supporting cast really gets hot from 3-point range (which is certainly a possibility given what’s happened in our two conference losses), my instincts say MSU wins fairly comfortably on the strength of a massive rebounding advantage.  So I’ll say MSU wins 65-56.  I’ll follow that up by saying I hate making predictions about specific games. and I’m sure at some point during the game I’ll curse myself for jinxing the team.  :)

I’m also notoriously bad at predicting surprise players of the game, but I’ll say Draymond Green follows up his 15-point/12-rebound game on Saturday by pulling down 2-3 key offensive rebounds in this game against the smaller Wolverine forwards.

Anyway, here’s to a good, clean game.  It should be fun to watch two teams with such contrasting styles go at it with major chips in play (Big Ten title/NCAA Tournament bid) on both sides.