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Recruiting Roundup (3-2-09)

By Dylan Burkhardt | Recruits | Posted on March 3, 2009 at 11:56 am

Commits

Darius Morris

Windward has rolled through their sectional without much of a challenge. Windward eased passed Sierra Canyon 63-39 and Buckley 60-49. They will face Lutheran in the sectional final this Friday, March 6th 4:30 PM, at Colony High School.

Matt Vogrich

Matt VogrichMatt continues to step up in the big games. Vogrich netted 38 points including 28 in the second half and knocked down five three pointers in a conference championship win over North Chicago. Lake Forest head coach Phil LaScala agrees that Vogrich steps up when it counts:

“He’s a special player,” Lake Forest coach Phil LaScala said of Vogrich. “If you look at our big games – North Chicago, Zion-Benton, Warren – he’s come up big, 32 points, 33 points, 35 points…playing against some very tough players.

There is also a great Q&A with Matt after he was named player of the week by the Chicago Sun-Times. Some highlights include a 4.8/5.0 GPA and 31 ACT, speeding, and looking forward to playing at Crisler Arena. By all accounts Matt has taken Lake Forest to a new level and they look ready for the state tournament. Here is a quick highlight from the conference championship game:

Jordan Morgan

Jordan vs CCDetroit Jesuit suffered a tough loss to Catholic Central in the Catholic league semi-final game. U of D made a valiant effort to get back in the game but it wasn’t enough. Jordan had 10 points in the loss.

Blake McLimans

Worcester will play Winchendon in the second quarter final (4 PM) in the NESPAC Class A Tournament tomorrow at Endicott College in Beverly, MA. Blake has continued to play pretty well down the stretch and he has had some solid games while picking up his defense a bit as well.

Eso Akunne (pref. walk on)

Eso Akunne Catholic League FinalsEso and 2010 target Josh Herbeck led Gabriel Richard to their fourth straight Catholic League C-D final. First, Richard knocked off Royal Oak Shrine, 67-48, in the semi-finals. Eso had 19 points and Herbeck had 21.

In the finals they managed the squeak by Detroit Loyola by a score of 58-56. Akunne had 19 points in the final despite struggling with foul trouble all game long.

2010 Recruits

Will Regan

Will Regan’s season came to a disappointing end with a playoff loss to Canisius. Nichols had beaten Canisius twice this year by 25 and 30 points. Regan was named to the all tournament team but only score 8 points in the loss.

Casey Prather

Casey PratherThe athletic wing man from Tennessee received an offer ($) this week and that tells you all you need to know about his abilities. Prather’s team lost in the district finals but was not eliminated, Prather had 36 points, 15 rebounds, and four blocks in the loss. Casey scored 34 points in a regional quarterfinal win to reach the 1,500 point mark for his career. This dunk was the highlight of the win:

Prather stole the ball and quickly took it up the court. Leaping from a good distance to the right of the lane, he put down a one-handed dunk, his second big dunk of the game.

Trey Zeigler

Mount Pleasant beat Bay City Central but they were without the services of Trey Zeigler who sat out for disciplinary reasons.

Moses Morgan

Moses’ Palo Verde squad suffered a heartbreaking loss in the Nevada State Championship game. Ken in Vegas was there and posted this recap.

Alex Dragicevich

Dragicevich is still very much on the radar. Dragicevich scored 20 points and added seven rebounds and five assists to lead Glenbrook North to a surprising 76-71 overtime win over Waukegan in the Central Suburban League championship.

Allen Payne

12 points and three assists in a 65-49 win over Anderson.

Tim Hardaway Jr. & Cameron Ayers

Their season’s are over.

Links & Notes

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Scouting Moses Morgan: Nevada 4A State Championship

By Dylan Burkhardt | Recruits | Posted on March 2, 2009 at 4:55 pm

score-boardKen in Vegas, a frequent commenter on the site, made it out to see Moses Morgan play in the Nevada Class 4A State Championship game. Moses and his Palo Verde squad were taking on Bishop Gorman, a team that had beaten them just a week earlier. Moses had 10 points and 9 rebounds in the loss and it sounds like he never really got going on offense. Ken’s thoughts on the game are below and there are also some links video clips and photo galleries after the story.

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When a final full-court desperation shot was blocked and the buzzer sounded, a dejected Moses Morgan knew he had let a state championship slip through his fingers and the young junior couldn’t help but show emotion.  Morgan walked back to the bench in disbelief, which eventually turned to anger as he punched a folding chair and ripped his jersey off. Palo Verde parents screamed obscenities at the refs, who had arguably cost them the game. The coaches clutched their heads in shock, before finally sulking over to congratulate an uproarious opponent.

Palo Verde and Bishop Gorman battled it out for the Class 4A  Nevada State Championship on Friday night at The Orleans Hotel and Casino.  The final score was 56-55 in favor of Gorman, and the final 2 minutes were absolutely heartbreaking.  The game had been sloppy and unimpressive throughout, another indicator of the level of talent in Nevada, but Palo Verde had control the entire way.  With 2 minutes left to go and a 6 point lead, all Palo had to do was control the ball, but a few turnovers later Gorman had tied the game with two clutch 3-point baskets.  Palo still had the upper hand, however, as they had the ball with 16 seconds left and a chance to take the final shot.  A streaky Palo guard drove through the lane and botched a contested lay-up with 3 seconds left on the ticker. What transpired next, was basically a replay of the Iowa game when DeShawn was called for a foul while trying to tie up a loose ball.  Instead of swallowing his whistle and sending a hard fought game to overtime, he called a reach-in foul on Palo Verde as they tried to secure a rebound.  With 7 team fouls, this sent Gorman to the line with 1 second left and a chance to ice the game with a free throw.  The crucial shot of a 1-1 fell, and the second one rimmed out, which conveniently gave Palo Verde no chance at a solid miracle attempt.

Moses Morgan was virtually a non-factor in this game.  He scored 10 points according to my tally on a poor shooting performance and never seemed to be in good positions to score.  My overall assessment of his play is nearly identical to my first scouting report.  In that report I said that I felt he had been overrated due to poor competition, and my opinion has not changed.  Moses never once created any offense for himself or tried to score off the dribble.  If we are recruiting him to replace Manny Harris, then we are going to be sorely disappointed.  He will have to gain a wealth of coordination and confidence in his senior year to be that kind of player.  He’s just not a good enough ball-handler to take it to the rack or find a crease yet.  90% of the points I have seen him score in the 3 games I have attended have been offensive rebounds or open jump shots.  That being said, he is a good shooter (although not last night) and has a great wing span.  At this point in time, he reminds me of Anthony Wright, and I would project him to be a slightly more athletic and productive version of him.  Again, this is only my assessment at this point in time.  I have no experience scouting high school talent and may just not have proper perspective, however I suspect that watching the likes of Zeigler or Hardaway Jr would have left a very different taste in my mouth. It will be interesting to see how Moses develops as a senior and I will certainly keep you updated.

More on the game:

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Bubble Notes: 3/2/09

By Dylan Burkhardt | 2008-2009 Season | Posted on March 2, 2009 at 12:41 pm

Michigan is right on the outside of many of today’s bracketology updates after their loss in Madison. They are the second to last team out by both Lunardi and Crashing the Dance. Like I said on Friday, these “brackets” are essentially who’s hot right now reports. Luckily the season doesn’t end today. The best case scenario for Michigan is to sit back this week and watch other teams falter and then beat Minnesota.

The Resume

  • Record: 18-12 (8-9)
  • RPI: 48
  • SOS: 9
  • RPI Top 50: 5-9
  • RPI 50-100: 4-2
  • RPI 100+: 7-1
  • Quality wins: UCLA (neutral), Duke, Illinois, Purdue
  • Bad losses: Iowa
  • Last 10: 4-6

The resume doesn’t change much besides a small drop in the RPI (46 to 48) as well as Iowa falling out of the top 100. Iowa’s fall makes the Iowa game a “bad loss” and also gets rid of one of our top 100 wins. It’s safe to say that Michigan fans need to be rooting for Iowa this week when they play Penn State and Ohio State.

The strengths of the Michigan resume include quality wins over top 50 and top 100 opponents and strength of schedule. 9 top 100 wins and 5 top 50 wins are very good numbers for any bubble team. Michigan’s strength of schedule also rivals most other teams on the bubble. The biggest weakness is Michigan’s 3-8 road record, this is the chink in Michigan’s armor but a win at the Barn would be the perfect cure.

Links

Competition

Here is a list of fellow bubble teams and what they have on deck this week. This is essentially the hit list, the teams that you want to root against. Sorted by RPI (in parenthesis).

  • Texas A&M (35): Tues @Colorado (229), Sat vs Missouri (13)
  • Minnesota (37): Weds vs. Wisconsin (31), Sat vs Michigan (48)
  • Creighton (39): Root for Creighton to win their conference tournament.
  • Georgetown (40): Tues @ St Johns (147), Sat vs DePaul (202)
  • Miami (44): Tues @GTech (159), Sat vs NC State (100)
  • San Diego State (46): Weds vs Col State (191), Sat vs UNLV (51)
  • Arizona (47): Thurs vs. Cal (36), Sat vs. Stanford (111)
  • Florida (50): Weds @ Miss St (88), Sat vs. Kentucky (66)
  • UNLV (51): Tues vs. Air Force (283), Sat @ SDSU (46)
  • Maryland (52): Tues vs. Wake Forest (17), Sat @ Virginia (110)
  • Cincinnati (53): Tues @USF (176), Sat vs Seton Hall (107)
  • Virginia Tech (59): Weds vs UNC (3), Sun @ FSU (16)
  • Penn State (64): Weds vs. Ill (19), Sat @Iowa (106)
  • Kansas State (73): Tues @Ok St (30), Sat vs Colorado (229)
  • Kentucky (66): Tues vs Georgia (204), Sat @ Florida (50) — *I have no idea how Lunardi has Kentucky as a 10 seed right now.
  • Providence (68): Thurs @ Villanova (15)
  • Notre Dame (69): Mon vs Villanova (15), Fri vs. St Johns (147)

Comparisons

The more I look at the Michigan resume the more I think it is almost identical to Arizona’s resume last year.  It is a different year so there are clearly different circumstances but if that Arizona team made the dance there is no doubt in my mind that Michigan deserves to make the dance.

There also aren’t many teams on the bubble with as many quality wins as Michigan. Boston College, UNLV, Georgetown, Penn State, and Kentucky are the only ones that come close.

The Big Ten is in a very interesting situation, there are so many teams on the bubble that we could see anywhere from six to eight bids. The committee doesn’t pick teams by conferences but it will be very interesting to see how it all plays out. Penn State, Minnesota, Michigan and even Ohio State will all have their chances to play themselves in or out this week.

Overall I think the situation remains pretty much unchanged for Michigan. Beat Minnesota and win the Thursday game of the Big Ten tournament and Michigan will put themselves in a very good position on Selection Sunday. Lose to Minnesota and they probably need to make it to the championship game or at the very least the semi-finals.

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Game 30: Michigan at Wisconsin Post Game

By Dylan Burkhardt | 2008-2009 Season | Posted on March 1, 2009 at 6:19 pm


Michigan hung in there against the Badgers but just didn’t have enough down the stretch. There is a reason why Bo Ryan is 48-0 against unranked Big Ten teams at the Kohl Center and we saw it today. They know how score just enough points with their efficient offense and how to play “Big Ten defense”. Wisconsin is one of the worst match-ups in the conference for Michigan because they are just so big and physical and love to post up. As much as this one hurts, it’s hard to be discouraged because I didn’t expect it to be this close. You have to remember that this is the same Wisconsin team that dominated Michigan for 40 minutes in Ann Arbor.

In the first half the Michigan offense looked great. The spacing was good and Manny Harris did a great job facilitating the offense. Manny scored inside and out in the first half and also did a great job at driving and kicking. Other guys got involved in the first half and hit some big three pointers (5-11). The offense ran so well that Michigan actually had a lead at the half despite Wisconsin’s hot start. The second half was a different story. The game became much more physical and Manny was limited. Michigan scored 2 points over the first 8 minutes of the half and let Wisconsin take control of the game. DeShawn Sims had a big game and he kept Michigan in it but it wasn’t enough. Michigan was 1 of 11 on three point shots in the second half and you can count the number of shots that someone beside Manny or Peedi made on one hand.

Looking at the four factors the biggest differences were at the free throw line and on the glass. Wisconsin got a bunch of backbreaking offensive rebounds down the stretch which left me screaming at me television. Wisconsin’s offense was very efficient (1.11 ppp) but Michigan tightened up a bit after a dreadful start. It’s hard to win on the road when you spot the other team so many easy layups and second chances. I’m going to follow John Gasaway’s lead and avoid talking about the officiating but Wisconsin got to the line down the stretch and Michigan didn’t.

It is no time for moral victories but I still give Michigan a lot of credit. They fought back multiple times and had a chance at the end despite getting down early and coming out so flat in the second half. All you can do at this point is watch the tape and move on. All the chips are on the table for Saturday’s game at Minnesota and it’s not going to be easy. Luckily Michigan has been worlds better when they are playing on three or more days of rest. As commenters continue to point out, Michigan is 14-2 with 3+ days of rest and 4-10 with less than 3 days of rest. Our RPI held at 46 and some other bubble teams lost this weekend and it looks more and more like the Minnesota game could essentially be a play-in game for the tournament.

Programming Note: I’ll have another bubble update and an update on Moses Morgan tomorrow followed by the typical Monday recruiting post on Tuesday.

Player Bullets:

  • DeShawn Sims: Peedi played very well overall after looking a little lost early on: 17 points on 8 of 16 shooting with 7 rebounds and 2 steals. The two three pointers late were frustrating to just about everyone including John Beilein but beyond that he was the one keeping Michigan in the game in the second half.
  • Manny Harris: Manny was exceptional in the first half but he struggled a bit in the second. The three point shot wasn’t falling for Manny and he settled for it a little bit too much. Manny did a great job on the glass and scored 15 points but he just couldn’t get to the line. I, like many others, would like to see Manny demand the ball a little more with the shot clock running down but I’m not sure what Beilein wants in those situations.
  • CJ Lee: CJ got schooled by Trevon Hughes today, Hughes got just about any shot he wanted and hit some absolute daggers. CJ did hit a couple threes to go along with 4 assists and a steal but it wasn’t his best night.
  • Zack Novak: This is one of those games that is just tough for Novak because of Wisconsin’s size, his final numbers were: 6 points, 2 rebounds, and 2 assists.
  • Stu Douglass: Just like just about everyone else, a pretty quiet game. Stu hit one triple but seemed hindered by Wisconsin’s length on defense.
  • Laval Lucas-Perry: Laval is still struggling. He hit a big three pointer but then took a poor shot the next time down the court.
  • Dave Merritt, Zack Gibson, Anthony Wright, and Kelvin Grady: These four combined for 2 points and 1 rebound in 20 minutes.
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Game 30: Michigan at Wisconsin Preview

By Dylan Burkhardt | 2008-2009 Season | Posted on February 28, 2009 at 9:32 pm

Basics:
Who: Michigan (18-11) at Wisconsin (17-10)
Where: Kohl Center, Madison, WI
When: Sunday, Feb 28th, 2 PM ET
TV: BTN
Spread: Wisconsin by 8
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, Wisconsin KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050)
Last Time: Preview / Recap

The first time these two teams met, Wisconsin gave Michigan a stern reminder about how basketball is played in the Big Ten. Wisconsin shredded the Michigan defense and rode their hot shooting (eFG% of 65.2%) to a 12 point win in a game they led for 40 minutes. These two teams have both been through quite a bit and seen their fair share of ups and downs  in the 59 days since their first battle.

Wisconsin has had a tumultuous conference season that has seen both a six game losing streak and a five game winning streak. Despite looking like they were toast at the end of January the Badgers now look like they are a good bet to make the NCAA tournament. Michigan on the other hand continues to fight for an NCAA berth and their Thursday night effort against Purdue was arguably their most inspired of the year. Michigan needs to bring the same kind of effort and intensity to the Kohl Center if they want to steal one.

Wisconsin plays painfully slow basketball and they grind teams up with their methodical swing offense. The Badgers’ offense has been very efficient this season, in conference play they are scoring 1.07 points per possession which is good for third in the league. Wisconsin holds onto the ball better than anyone else in the conference so don’t expect many turnovers. They are also a very solid shooting team, they shoot 36.8% from long range and 48.3% from two point range. They don’t do anything else exceptionally well on offense but they don’t have many glaring weaknesses either.

On defense Wisconsin will try to overwhelm Michigan with their size. They aren’t exactly UConn but they throw a lot of big bodies at you. Guys like Krabbenhoft, Nankivil, Jarmusz, and Landry are all in that 6-foot-7 mold where they can play all over the court.  Wisconsin does a great job of not leaving their feet to commit a foul, they play body position defense and take your space away rather than blocking your shot. You can bet that they will cram the lane in an effort to prevent easy looks.

In the first game the Michigan offense didn’t have much going besides Zack Novak who had 20 points. Peedi had an efficient 14 points on 6 shots but Manny Harris struggled and only scored 9 points on 3 of 13 shooting. Laval Lucas-Perry scored 11 points but he struggled on defense all game. Michigan clearly is going to need to get a solid performance out of DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris, those two guys are the ones that make this offense go, especially on the road.

The biggest change from the first game will be the lineups. LLP played 30 minutes in the first match-up and I would expect to see him play closer to 8 minutes in this one. Stu Douglass has stepped his game up over the last 7 games and is averaging 9.7 ppg and shooting 43.5% from long range. I would also expect to continue to see a lot of CJ Lee because his defense will be needed against Trevon Hughes. Hughes absolutely torched Michigan in the first game and hit a ton of big shots, especially late in the shot clock.

The key for Michigan is going to figuring out a way to get stops. To give you an idea of how well Wisconsin played on offense in the first game, they scored 1.24 points per possession. Michigan had one of their best offensive performances of the year against Purdue and they only scored 1.22 points per possession. The encouraging part is that Michigan’s defense has seemed to improve lately, mostly since the insertion of CJ Lee into the lineup.

It’s hard to like Michigan’s chances in this one. The Kohl Center is a tough place to play and Wisconsin has been on a roll (won 5 of last 6). The Badgers did slip up to Texas, Minnesota, and Purdue at home but it’s going to take Michigan’s ‘A+’ game to earn a win in Madison. Wisconsin has a veteran team and they have been here before, I’m not expecting anything but their best.  Pomeroy gives Michigan a 20% chance at the upset and picks the Badgers by 7, Vegas is even less forgiving and predicts an 8 point margin.

Let’s hear your thoughts, predictions, and in-game posts in the comments. No live blog for this one, they are clearly bad luck.

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Bubble Notes

By Dylan Burkhardt | 2008-2009 Season | Posted on February 27, 2009 at 2:24 pm

Manny Harris dunks versus PurdueThere are 16 days, 2 games, and a conference tournament left before Selection Sunday. With their win last night over Purdue, Michigan at the very least have put themselves on the bubble.

The latest bracketology reports are encouraging but these really are nothing more than a “whos hot” list in my mind. If Michigan loses Sunday I am sure they will be “out” next week but if they go on to beat Minnesota I think they will be back “in”. The value of these mock brackets is limited until the final week or so of the season so you have to take them for what they are: an estimate of the bracket if the season ended today.

Lunardi has Michigan as the last team in and Crashing the Dance also has Michigan in the field. Lunardi’s bracket is very interesting because Minnesota, Penn State, and Michigan are all right on the edge. Michigan and Penn State are the last two teams in while Minnesota is the first team out. These last couple games are absolutely huge and it looks like at least one Big Ten bubble team is going to be very disappointed on Selection Sunday.

The Michigan Resume

  • Record: 18-11 (8-8)
  • RPI: 46
  • SOS: 11
  • RPI Top 50: 5-8
  • RPI 50-100: 5-3
  • RPI 100+: 7-0
  • Quality wins: UCLA (neutral), Duke, Illinois, Purdue
  • Bad losses: Iowa
  • Last 10: 5-5

There are some real bright spots on Michigan’s resume including 10 wins versus top 100 teams and five against the top 50. They also have managed to go the distance really without a bad loss, Iowa hurt but they look like they could end up in the top 100 anyways. The issue for Michigan is that they have a lot of losses as well as two road games on deck.

Win one of the final two and Michigan is in business. Their RPI will probably jump a few more spots with a split putting it in the low forties. They might need to beat Northwestern in the first round of the BigTen tournament to be safe but that would be a very solid resume. Despite their inconsistency this year Michigan has a big RPI win in November (UCLA), December (Duke), January (Illinois), and February (Purdue).Lose the last two games and the going gets tough, the RPI could stay in the top 50 but it would be time for some magic in the Big Ten Tournament.

Scenarios

  • Beat Wisconsin, Lose to Minnesota: This would result in a 9-9 conference record and also give Michigan a big road win. They would probably want to win their first round Big Ten Tournament game but I think this is a pretty good situation.
  • Lose to Wisconsin, Beat Minnesota: Same feelings as above.
  • Beat Wisconsin, Beat Minnesota: Lock. 10-8 in conference with 7 wins over top 50 teams. Stone cold lock. Then again the odds are not very good to say the least.
  • Lose to Wisconsin, Lose to Minnesota: Need a Big Ten Tournament run if they can’t get it done on the road. This would likely give us the 8 seed which means we would play Northwestern and then Michigan State. If they could win those two they might be in the picture but they will need some luck.

It’s pretty simple, win one of these last two games and Michigan is in good shape heading to Conseco. Winning the first game of the Big Ten tournament isn’t necesarrily going to help but it doesn’t hurt, that’s the key there.

The best chance for a win has to be at Minnesota. Michigan handled them pretty well in Ann Arbor and even though Minnesota is a much better team at home, it’s still a game where Michigan certainly should have a chance. Wisconsin hasn’t been invincible at home this year (losses to Texas, Purdue, and Minnesota) but it is still the Kohl Center.

Weekend Viewing Guide

The other bubble teams worth keeping an eye on in my mind are: Cincinnati, Florida, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, San Diego State, and Texas A&M. I’m sure there are a few I missed but that’s the core group to root against.

Here is a quick run through of who to root for this weekend. Clearly Michigan needs to handle their own business but a little help never hurts. Teams to root for are in bold. If I missed a game leave it in the comments and I’ll add it to the list.

  • Georgetown at Villanova – Saturday, Noon ESPN
  • Texas A&M at Iowa State – Saturday, 1:30 PM ESPN360
  • Notre Dame at Connecticut – Saturday, 2PM CBS
  • Arizona at Washington – Saturday, 3PM FSN
  • Duke at Virginia Tech – Saturday, 3:30 PM, ABC
  • LSU at Kentucky – Saturday, 4PM CBS
  • Temple at Dayton – Saturday, 4PM
  • Texas at Oklahoma State – Saturday, 6PM ESPN
  • Indiana at Penn State – Saturday, 6PM BTN
  • USC at Stanford – Saturday, 8PM
  • SDSU at TCU - Saturday, 8:30 PM
  • South Carolina at Vanderbilt – Saturday 8:30 PM
  • UCLA at Cal – Saturday, 9PM ESPN
  • Tennessee at Florida – Sunday 2PM, CBS
  • Providence at Rutgers – Sunday, 2PM ESPNU
  • Cincinnati at Syracuse – Sunday, 2PM ESPN360
  • OSU at Purdue – Sunday, 4PM ESPN
  • Maryland at NC State – Sunday, 7:30 PM

Links

Open Thread

This post will be the place for any bracketology talk over the weekend, at least until I get the game preview up. There is almost too much to keep track of here so if you have any added insight I would gladly listen. This definitely should be a fun weekend of basketball and at the very least it feels good that all of these games matter.

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