Around the Big Ten ‘09: Recap

Thanks to all the writers who participated in the preview series (teams are linked to their previews below). Now here are the Big Ten standings as they have predicted:

Blogger Predicted Big Ten Standings
Team W L Last Yr. Net
Michigan St. 14 4 15-3 -1
Purdue 14 4 11-7 +3
Ohio State 13 5 10-8 +3
Minnesota 12 6 9-9 +3
Illinois 11 7 11-7 0
Michigan 9-9
Wisconsin 10 8 10-8 0
Northwestern 9 9 8-10 +1
Penn State 7 11 10-8 -3
Indiana 6 12 1-17 +5
Iowa 5 13 5-13 0
101 79 +11

Judging by the records that various bloggers predicted for their teams, Michigan is looking at an 0-22 conference season. This obviously isn’t possible but it speaks for the widespread optimism across the conference.

Looking at the returning minutes numbers across the Big Ten, there is reason for optimism almost across the board. Last year’s entire All-Conference team is back and three teams who didn’t have a player on the All-Conference team bring in top 25 recruiting classes. The talent in the league appears to be at it’s highest level in years.

The problem with all of these predictions is that conference wins are a zero sum game. In a vacuum several teams look poised to make a big jump up the standings, but universal improvement doesn’t help the situation. If everyone gets better, the conference will win some out of conference games but essentially be running in place when it comes to the standings.

The only bloggers who predicted fewer wins than last year’s tally are Michigan State (-1) and Penn State (-2). On the other hand, writers from Purdue (+3), Ohio State (+3), Minnesota (+3), Northwestern (+1) and Indiana (+5) all predicted improvement in the win column.

As someone that expects Michigan to post a winning conference record for the first time since 2003, this puts an even bigger crunch on the win totals.

This leaves the question, where will the wins come from? Looking down the list, I think that most of the projections are closer to ceilings than likely outcomes. I have a hard time seeing these teams winning more games than predicted.

I also think we will have a much clearer basement in the standings. Iowa is not going to be a good team, they are far more likely to win one or two games than five. Indiana will be improved but six wins might be a stretch.

At the end of the day there are around seven teams who are legit candidates to finish in the top 3. The problem is that one of them is going to finish seventh as well.

Most Feared Player

manny-harris

Player Votes
Manny Harris 4
Evan Turner 3
Kalin Lucas 2
E’Twaun Moore 1

I asked every interviewee who was the “most feared player” in the conference. This question was pretty open ended and people tackled the question in different ways. Some chose a player that always kills them (E’Twaun Moore and Northwestern) while others just looked at the most talented.

Manny Harris won the poll with four votes which was surprising to me. I fully expected Evan Turner to take this one down but I guess there is a similar level of respect for Manny Harris. I thought it was interesting that Manny hasn’t fared particularly well against schools like Illinois and Wisconsin but they chose to go with him anyways.

If I was voting in this one I would go with Kalin Lucas. As KJ has well documented, Lucas can play fast or slow and play to score or setup his teammates. He might not be known as a shooter but he can hit the big shots. Lucas also knows how to step up on the big stage as we learned during last year’s NCAA tournament.

Mini-Bullets

Black Eyes

It’s easy to remember the exciting parts of last season. Whether it is the early season win over UCLA or rushing the court after the Duke game. Maybe finally winning a big road game at Minnesota or the NCAA tournament win over Clemson. Last season was a breath of unexpected fresh air that caught most Michigan fans off guard.

Now, expectations are real: this is an NCAA tournament team. Michigan has typically fallen in the 10-20 range in most pre-season polls and success is expected.

All signs point to a successful season this year but let’s play devil’s advocate for a bit now and take a look at five of Michigan’s not so glorious moments. It’s important to remember that although they made their first NCAA tournament appearance in a decade, Michigan was a couple bounces (versus Savannah State or Indiana for example) away from the NIT.

No team looks great every time they take the floor, but these five games stand out as the worst performances by Michigan last year and reminders that there is still a ways to go.

[click to continue…]

Tuesday Links

Some updates from around the conference:

Preseason Three Point Analysis

stu-douglass-three llp-three novak-three

Like it or not, John Beilein’s basketball teams are perimeter oriented teams. Beilein has a model and, besides a few tweaks here and there, he is comfortable sticking to it because it works. The ideology behind a POT is that you shoot a lot of threes while sacrificing offensive rebounding for not turning the ball over; the catch is that you have to make your threes.

While Michigan’s statistical profile last year was a lot closer to the West Virginia Beilein model than the year before, it still wasn’t quite there. The main issue was Michigan’s team three point shooting percentage of 33.4% (32.1% in conference).

Luke Winn points out that Michigan doesn’t return any one who made over 34.5% of their three point shots while Beilein’s best team at West Virginia returned 6 players that topped that mark.

Basically Michigan managed to win a lot of games last year despite being a perimeter oriented team who can’t make threes – the cardinal sin. To repeat that success, or improve upon last year, they are going to have to make more of their threes if when they shoot so many.

To put this in perspective, I put together a scatter plot of 3PA/FGA (how many threes a team takes) versus 3pt field goal percentage.

image

(The Big Ten teams are all listed with conference-only numbers, while Beilein’s WVU teams are from their entire season.)

The axes are aligned at conference averages (35% 3PFG%, 37% 3PA/FGA) which leaves us with four quadrants.

  • Bottom left: teams who shoot few three pointers and make them at a below average rate.
  • Top left: teams who shoot a lot of three pointers and make them at a below average rate.
  • Top right: teams who shoot a lot of three pointers and make them at an above average rate.
  • Bottom right: teams who shoot few three pointers but make them at an above average rate.

[click to continue…]

Open Scrimmage Thoughts

Today’s open practice began with lots of skill work including stations with 3-4 man groups simulating game situations. After that, there was some full court fast break drills and some controlled scrimmage. Finally, they went into a full scrimmage for about 35 minutes with a running clock. The season is almost here with the first exhibition game only two weeks away.

Here are some quick thoughts on a player-by-player basis, although I’d be hesitant to take too much from one practice.

  • The “starting lineups” in the scrimmage were: Darius Morris, Matt Vogrich, Zack Novak, DeShawn Sims, and Ben Cronin versus Laval Lucas-Perry, Stu Douglass, Eso Akunne, Anthony Wright, and Zack Gibson. The offensive play was a bit sloppy but they have only been practicing for a week now and are working plenty of freshmen into the system.
  • Manny Harris was nursing a hamstring injury and didn’t participate in the full court scrimmage. I think this is just a case of being as careful as possible with your star player. He worked on his jump-shot off to the side and it looked as smooth as ever.
  • Stu Douglass probably has a better grasp on the offense than Laval Lucas-Perry and Darius Morris but the problem is that he is significantly better playing shooting guard. I think you get the most of Stu Douglass by allowing him to play in his more natural point guard spot off the ball.
  • Zack Novak is just fun to watch and he didn’t disappoint. Novak does everything on the floor and is also one of the more vocal players on the team. During the scrimmage, Novak scored a variety of backdoor cuts and three pointers while also being quick to jump on the ground for loose balls. Novak played a ton of minutes last year for a reason, I have a hard time envisioning a situation where his playing time decreases dramatically.
  • Darius Morris looked comfortable playing the point guard but he’s going to have to realize that this isn’t high school anymore. He has to be judicious when driving into the lane and also make smarter passes at times. On the other hand, he probably has the best handle on the team and will be able to help this team. Judging by the way Beilein was quoted, it looks like Darius might be very close to locking up the point guard spot: “It’s going to be interesting. Darius Morris has made an impression already. He’s got great quickness. He’s learning. He wants to play defense, which is really important as we know at that position. And Stu (Douglass) and Laval (Lucas-Perry) — it’s which one would be the point guard if Darius wasn’t the point guard.”
  • Ben Cronin is big but he’s going to have to get faster, both mentally and physically. His size will probably get him onto the court but his presence forces Michigan to change their approach a bit.
  • DeShawn Sims seemed content to settle for jumpers, mainly from three point range. This was probably a product of playing alongside Cronin at times but I think we need to see healthy doses of DeShawn Sims on the block this year.
  • Zack Gibson has some skills but the question is what he can bring to the table consistently. He has always shown flashes, most recently with some strong play in the NCAA tournament, but he also tends to disappear for weeks. Today, his jumpshot wasn’t falling at all.
  • Anthony Wright another streak shooter but he was feeling it. Wright hit several triples in the scrimmage that helped get his team back in the game.
  • Blake McLimans has a nice stroke and good size for the four position but he has a long ways to go on defense. His length gives him the potential to be a good defender but he looked pretty lost off the ball. McLimans also didn’t show much during the scrimmage. He has the proper size and skillset to be a contributor at the four but he’s not there yet.
  • Matt Vogrich‘s shot is pure and he’ll definitely play this year.
  • Laval Lucas-Perry was solid but didn’t really stand out but he still looks significantly leaner and quicker than a year ago.
  • Eso Akunne will bring a unique skill-set but I wouldn’t bet on him being a contributor at this point. His shot needs a lot of work before I think he can be a consistent contributor.
  • Jordan Morgan spent most of the day shooting jumpers off to the side but it appears that he progressing.
  • Trey Zeigler and Evan Smotrycz were in attendance at the practice for a while.

Friday Links

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