Scatterplottin’

If you’re still trying to figure out why Michigan is struggling then you need to look no further than this chart. The chart graphs the proportion of three point field goal attempts (3PA/FGA) on the vertical axis versus 3PFG% on the horizontal axis. The origin of the graph is located at the conference averages (36% 3p%, 35% 3PA/FGA).

We’ve looked at this chart before, notably before the season when I plotted last year’s Big Ten conference-only numbers (there is also more explanation of the graph at this link) along with the numbers from Beilein’s past 5 teams. After plotting out all the data I concluded that Michigan was moving in the right direction, headed toward the upper-right quadrant where most of Beilein’s previous teams lived. Boy, I couldn’t have been more wrong.

While we are on the subject of preseason prognostication, give Luke Winn a little credit for identifying Michigan’s potential three point problems before the season.

I like this Michigan team almost as much as the Geeks do; my only hesitation is that they don’t have the same caliber of shooters that the Mountaineers did in ’05, when Pittsnogle hit 42.6 percent of his treys, and five others hit 34.5 percent or higher (Mike Gansey, Joe Herber, J.D. Collins,Tyrone Sallyand Patrick Beilein). The Wolverines don’t have a single returning player who shot higher than 34.4 percent.

But then take that credit away because it didn’t stop him from ranking Michigan 16th in his preseason rankings. For more sobering and bewildering graphs, check out the Big Ten Geeks preseason look at Michigan showing the yearly improvement of John Beilein’s teams at West Virginia from year 1 to 3.

Back to the three pointers. Michigan is by far the worst three point shooting team in the conference (country!) and they continue to keep chucking them up (but do they really have a choice?). Interestingly enough, the Big Ten teams who shoot an average number of three pointers or less (I’m including Wisconsin because they are so close to the average) are 16-6 in conference play compared to the three point happy teams which are a combined 5-15.

Does this give credence to the idea that a three point centric offense doesn’t work in the Big Ten? Maybe, but I think it’s much more likely that the perimeter oriented teams in the Big Ten just can’t hit enough shots. All but Ohio State fall below the average three point shooting percentage.

Let ‘Em Play

In a critique of whistle happy Big 12 refs, John Gasaway uncovered that the free throw rate in the Big 12 conference play is higher than any other league. What I found interesting but not all that surprising was that the Big Ten is at the bottom of the list:

Major-conference FT rates, 2009: conference games only

          FTA/FGA
Big 12     0.39
ACC        0.34
Pac-10     0.34
SEC        0.34
Big East   0.33
Big Ten    0.32

The Big Ten would probably be considered the most physical conference. Michigan State and Purdue, rightfully so, have the national perception of extremely physical and tough teams.

Yet, somehow the conference has the lowest number of free throws attempted. This does nothing more than back up the point that Big Ten officials love to “let ‘em play”. They allow more physical play and enable teams like Purdue, Michigan State, and Minnesota to play their trademark defense.

Beilein is certainly one coach that would prefer to have the game officiated more strictly. After Michigan committed 23 fouls at Indiana, John Beilein actually praised the referees:

“I want the game to be officiated like it is. Hands on, we fouled three jump shooters and we’ve spoken to them about that,” Beilein said

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