Plus/Minus Updates: BC & Ark-PB

Here is some more updated plus/minus data thanks to commenter gpsimms. We began tallying the data during the Old Spice Classic so seasonal totals don’t include Northern Michigan or Houston Baptist.

Updated Totals

Player Min Net Score/40 Allow/40 Net/40 Norm.
Gibson 52 13 66.92 56.92 10.00 1.80
Lucas-Perry 123 13 75.77 71.54 4.23 1.17
Douglass 119 11 66.55 62.86 3.70 1.01
Novak 158 8 69.11 67.09 2.03 0.64
Harris 186 7 69.68 68.17 1.51 0.51
Sims 149 -8 70.07 72.21 -2.15 -0.66
Morris 117 -12 65.98 70.09 -4.10 -1.11
Vogrich 34 -7 71.76 80.00 -8.24 -1.20
Cronin 2 -2 20.00 60.00 -40.00 -1.41
Akunne 2 -3 40.00 100.00 -60.00 -2.12
Wright 41 -24 56.59 80.00 -23.41 -3.75

Bullets:

  • Zack Gibson has posted the highest plus/minus total in less than half as many minutes as the six people behind him. Tough to say that he doesn’t warrant more playing time, as the team seems to go on a run whenever he is in the game.
  • Laval Lucas-Perry has been one of the only players to shoot the three pretty well this year so his offensive numbers make sense, however his defensive totals are a bit disappointing.
  • DeShawn Sims is the most disappointing on this list with is -8 total. He needs to continue to step his game up, hopefully yesterday was a big step in the right direction.
  • Stu Douglass appears to be one of the better defenders on the team. I think this started to become clear at the end of last year but he has posted the best defensive numbers of any guard on the roster.

Game-by-game stats for Boston College and Arkansas Pine Bluff along with notes after the jump.

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Sunday Night News & Notes

Some notes on Jon Horford, Tim Hardaway Jr., whether Michigan is taking too many three point shots, and Manny Harris’ NBA stock.

Too Many Threes?

The most frequent comments, online or in person, that I have heardabout Michigan basketball these days is that they take too many threes and need to pound the ball inside. Others scratch their heads and wonder what happened to all of the backdoor cuts that made John Beilein famous.

The first question that has to be answered is whether Michigan is actually taking more threes this year than previous Beilein teams.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
3PA/FGA 40.1 45.9 51.4 49.0 40.7 47.9 42.4
3P% 36.1 36.0 34.8 37.4 31.2 33.4 27.8

Michigan isn’t shooting many more threes this year. The painful number here is just the 27.8% that Michigan is shooting from three point range, a number that ranks 308th in Division 1 basketball and 2nd worst among major conference programs (only UCLA is worse). There is simply no way that this team can continue to shoot that poorly from three point range. I would think you would be hard pressed to find many teams that win games consistently while shooting less than 30% from long range, regardless of how many three point shots they take.

Obviously, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims need to get shots inside the arc. However, they are really the only two inside threats on the roster and they take their fair share of shots inside. Every three point shot they take is not a bad shot because when either of them are truly an inside-outside threat, they are nearly impossible to guard.

The three point shooting problem compounds because Beilein’s offense relies on spacing to work properly. By extending defenses to the three point line, Michigan’s offense not only creates space for backdoor cuts, it provides Manny Harris with driving lanes to create.

When the three point shots aren’t falling, there is no reason for a team to extend their defense. Boston College was able to sit back in their compressed defense for the entire game because Michigan simply couldn’t make them pay for it.

Recruiting Notes

Tim Hardaway Jr.

Palmetto has gotten off to a rough 0-2 start but Tim Hardaway Jr. is certainly producing. After scoring 48 points in the season opener, Hardaway scored 28 in Palmetto’s 45-53 loss to Killian. It’s still early in the year but Tim appears to be taking his game to the next level, shooting the ball well and carrying his team.

horfordJon Horford, picture from InsidePrepSports.net

Jon Horford

Jon Horford hasn’t been discussed much as a serious recruit for Michigan’s class of 2010, however it appears that it’s time for that to change. In a recent Spartan Mag article ($), Horford not only mentions a Michigan offer but names them his leader (he also mentions a Michigan offer in a recent Scout article $).

Michigan’s lack of size has been discussed ad nauseam around these parts so it probably comes as a relief to see Michigan recruiting the 6-foot-9 center. Horford would bring an active motor along with legit size and shot blocking ability. His offensive game is still in development but his older brother Al’s was at this point as well.

There is obviously some history behind the Horford’s relationship with Michigan but the entire Michigan staff has changed since Al’s recruitment. This is certainly one to watch.

Recruiting Roundups? It’s getting to be that time. With high school basketball season tipping off in Michigan, I’ll start to get back to weekly recruiting roundups.

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Game 7: Arkansas Pine Bluff at Michigan Post Game

peedi-apb novak-apb


The first half was every bit as rough as Michigan’s recent performances but they managed to right the ship just enough to cruise to victory over a lackluster Arkansas Pine Bluff squad.

Michigan certainly didn’t play well but Pine Bluff was bad enough that it didn’t matter. Luckily Michigan’s big two, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, showed up. The first half was DeShawn Sims’ show as he scored 15 of Michigan’s 32 points. In the second half, Manny Harris went to work and put the game away thanks to three second half three point field goals.

Looking at the four factors, it’s clear that the difference in the game was Pine Bluff’s complete inability to hold onto the ball. The defense was pretty good, and much better in the second half, allowing only .7 points per possession. Both teams cleaned up on the defensive glass and there weren’t many offensive rebounds for either team.

Michigan’s offense just isn’t working right now. The three point shots aren’t falling but I don’t think the answer is to stop shooting them altogether. 43% of Michigan’s field goal attempts were from long range, that is a lot but that is the way this team is going to play. There are two guys that are threats from inside the arc and they both got plenty of touches this game (maybe not Harris in the first half). This team is going to be lackluster when three point shots aren’t falling, that should have been clear last year. This team is what it is and while it’s not pretty right now, they certainly have the ability to play much better.

The Utah game looms large on Wednesday night. The Utes aren’t a great team, they have lost to Idaho, Seattle, Oklahoma State, and Weber St but it is a true road game none the less.

darius-morris-apb

Player Bullets:

  • Manny Harris: Manny was almost invisible in the first half, he didn’t get a rebound and scored only 2 points on two free throws. The second half was a different story as he finished with 18 points and 6 rebounds.
  • DeShawn Sims: This was one of DeShawn’s best games of the year, he notched a double double with 19 points and 10 boards and was far more assertive than he has been for most of the year.
  • Stu Douglass: Confidence is a fragile thing and right now the shots aren’t falling for Stu. 1 of 7 from three point range is just brutal. He’s been through slumps before and he’ll just have to work through this one. The good news is that he had 4 assists and no turnover.
  • Zack Novak: 7 points, 3 rebounds, 3 steals, an assist and a block is a pretty typical Novak stat line, however the 0-4 from three point range stands out.
  • Darius Morris: You can clearly see all of the reasons that he is going to be a very good player but at this point he’s still developing, which is understandable for a point guard in his 7th collegiate game. This was a good chance for Darius to get a lot of minutes and continue to get his feet wet.
  • Laval Lucas-Perry: LLP hit two big threes early and came out fired up but two quick fouls put him on the bench. He promptly picked up his third foul about 30 seconds into the second half.
  • Zack Gibson: 12 minutes, 6 points (3-5), 1 rebound and a block. Gibson continues to play well in limited playing time, giving Michigan a boost when Peedi goes to the bench.
  • Anthony Wright: Missed shots from all over the floor. Three pointers, layups, and mid-range jump shots. Not his best game but I think he deserves a free pass.
  • Matt Vogrich: The shot wasn’t falling today and Vogrich still isn’t ready defensively, especially in man-to-man which explains his limited playing time today.

weiverP nagihciM ta ffulB-eniP sasnakrA :7 emaG

Basics

Who: Michigan (3-3) vs. Arkansas Pine-Bluff (0-5)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Saturday, December 5th, 2PM
Stats: Live Tempo Free Stats
TV: BigTenNetwork.com
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ 950 AM, 102.9 FM
Sirius Ch. 127 / XM Ch. 193
Line:

ArkansasPBGoldenLions

Michigan looks to get back to winning as they welcome the Golden Lions to the friendly confines of Crisler Arena. Luckily, Pine Bluff should provide much less of a challenge than any of Michigan’s previous four opponents.

Pine Bluff has struggled this year, losing all five of their games to largely subpar competition. However, the Lions are certainly used the traveling, they play their first 14 games on the road.

Judging by Pine Bluff’s statistical profile, it appears that this might be just the game that Michigan needs to snap out of their offensive funk. Opponents shoot the lights out versus APB, 42.4% from behind the arc and 55.9% on 2 point field goals. The Lions also allow opponents to live at the free throw line with a free throw rate of 61.3% and don’t manage to cause many turnovers.  However, Pine Bluff is the best defensive rebounding team in the country and rebounds 80% of their opponents’ missed shots.

Pine Bluff isn’t as bad on the offensive side of the ball, but they aren’t good at much either. The one bright spot is their offensive rebounding, they pull down 36% of their own misses. Their shooting is subpar (eFG% of 45.5%) and they turn the ball over on a quarter of their possessions. They take most of their shots inside teh arc, but only shoot 45% on 2pt field goals while only assisting 45% of made baskets.

Now some quick personnel bullets:

  • Savalance Townsend is the leading scorer for the Lions, averaging 12.6 points per game while shooting 44% from long range.
  • 6 foot 8 245 pound center, LeBaron Weathers averages 9.8 points and 7 rebounds per game.
  • The rest of the starting lineup includes 6-foot-7 Tyrees Glass (9.8ppg), 6-foot-5 Tavaris Washington (6.6ppg), and 6-foot-2 Terrance Calvin (10ppg).

It looks like a relatively easy test for Michigan, who could certainly use an easy game. It would be great to see Michigan shoot the ball well and get back on track before a big road game at Utah next Wednesday.

Commit Diary: Evan Smotrycz (12/4/09)

smotrycz-signingHere’s the second edition of Evan Smotrycz’ commitment diary as well as his numbers through his first four games.

Date Opponent Result Points Rebounds
11/19/09
Bridgton Academy W 81-69 9 12
11/22/09
NIA Prep W 15 7
11/23/09
Kiski School W 15 3
12/2/09
St. Thomas More L 87-86 13 8
Averages 13 7.5

Started off 3-0 before the Thanksgiving break, we beat Bridgton at home, NIA Prep, and The Kiski School at the Prep Showcase. I got some good rest out in Vegas over the break. I was there for a week with my family and some friends of ours. We took the red eye back and I went straight up to school. Thankfully, unlike last year, everyone stayed in shape over the break so we wouldn’t have to start from square one. Even though our stamina wasn’t horrible we didn’t have any time to waste.

We had to travel to St. Thomas More last night, a real tough place to play in, let alone win. We were trailing by as much as 17 at the six-minute mark. We battled back to within one with 11 seconds left. We had a timeout so we drew up a play that ultimately got us a last second shot. It didn’t go in but it was a good look and that’s all we could really ask for. You can’t control everything during the course of the game like poor officiating or whether the ball goes in, only how hard you play and how well you execute your offense and defense. With the exception of a few small stretches we played really hard and ignored the officials. We would have won the game if we took care of the ball, but turnovers killed us.

The good thing that comes from the loss is that we matured as a group. We proved that we don’t give up on the road and we stayed together as a team. Since the beginning of the season we have been calling ourselves a family. Family’s don’t give up on each other, whether it’s a bad shot, turnover, or bad pass we fought through adversity and got better as a team. It’s still early in the season and we have a long way to go, the more we play together the better we will be. We have practice tonight to refine some things then we travel to Winchendon for another tough road game.

Game 6: Boston College at Michigan Post Game

ugh

Well that’s certainly not how to snap a losing streak. Michigan picked up right where they left off with another terrible performance.

Michigan knew the importance of this game but they played without any mental toughness. They blew routine layups, fell asleep on inbounds plays, couldn’t hit a shot, and lacked defensive intensity. The whole nine yards.

Right before players were introduced John Mahoney motioned to CJ Lee, who was sitting directly behind the Maize Rage, to come down on the court and put on a jersey. He was obviously kidding, but there is no doubt that it would have helped. It’s beginning to sound redundant but the void in leadership is painfully obvious. It’s time for someone to take ownership and get this team on the same page.

On offense, it just isn’t working. Boston College packed the lane and dared Michigan to beat them from the outside. It obviously worked. Michigan shot 38.7% on two point field goals and 26.5% from long range (39.2% eFG). They simply couldn’t buy a basket. The shooting has to get better but what I’m most worried about is the flow of the offense. At this point it seems like there is far too much thinking going on before the correct reads are made.

The defense was brutal as well. Yes, it got better as the game went on but Boston College had already established their dominance. Boston College ran the flex offense to perfection against Michigan, mostly thanks to Corey Raji who scored 24 points on 11 of 16 shooting. According to the numbers at SCACC Hoops, through the first 30 minutes of play Michigan was giving up an astounding 1.30 points per possession.

As someone that has tried to be a consistent voice of reason, it’s hard not to panic at this point. Michigan laid an egg, at home, in a game they had to have. The season is still young but this team is playing terrible basketball, there is no other way to put it. At this point, every game seems to raise more questions about this team.

How do you fix it? This team’s confidence is rattled and who knows what will get it back. This stretch is eerily similar to Michigan’s swoon in late January when the offense seemed to disappear and Michigan lost 5 of 6 games. In the middle of that stretch, I wrote a piece proclaiming that Michigan needed to “Just Play Ball” rather than be crushed under the weight of expectations. At this point, there’s not much more that Michigan can do.

Player Bullets:

  • Manny Harris: It’s hard to call 19 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 1 turnover, and 2 steals a bad game but it’s reality. There are enormous expectations on Manny’s shoulders but I don’t think he would want it any way else.
  • DeShawn Sims: Ugh. Michigan needs a lot more from Peedi. I don’t know whether it’s effort, focus, or hustle but Sims needs to produce. He has all the talent in the world but he needs this is his senior year, he needs to bring more to the table.
  • Zack Novak: Love Zack’s hustle but after the first few minutes his shot disappeared. He was banging against a 6’9 Joe Trapani all night which might have something to do with it. Zack Novak is going to play a lot but that means he needs to hit shots, especially if he is going to take 11 field goal attempts.
  • Zack Gibson: Gibson is playing very well: 9 points, 5 rebounds, 1 steal, 2 blocks in 16 minutes. He needs minutes, I’m not sure where they come but he needs to get them. This game emphasized why Beilein is hesitant to play Sims with Gibson, as both big men got in foul trouble in the first half.
  • Darius Morris: Not ready for primetime. Darius isn’t ready and that was clear by his minutes which almost disappeared during the game.
  • Stu Douglass: Stu is typically a gunner but by the end of the game he had lost his confidence as well. Him passing up a three point shot (yes, it was deep) with around 1:30 left and Michigan trailing by 6 says about all you need to know about how he feels about his shot.
  • Laval Lucas-Perry: Not LLP’s best day to say the least. His missed layup looked like perfect material for the Not Top 10, he had some terrible free throw misses, and couldn’t buy a three pointer.
  • Matt Vogrich: Vogrich is going to be a good player but right now his head is still swimming. It was good to let him get some playing time but I think Beilein is limited with what he can do with Vogrich on the court. Needs to stay confident in his three point shot because the drive isn’t happening against bigger and more athletic teams.
  • Anthony Wright: I am rarely positive about Anthony Wright’s game but I really liked what he gave the team. He hit a three but I also thought he came in the game with more defensive intensity than anyone else on the floor during the first half.
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