Numbers

A few statistical bullet points that can hopefully muster up some discussion as well as an update on Eric Puls.

  • Michigan’s guards (Morris, Douglass, Lucas-Perry, and Vogrich) have made just 17 of their measly 51 two point attempts this year. That’s 33% compared to the 32% that they’ve shot on their 81 three point attempts.
  • Michigan’s 74.6% defensive rebounding percentage against Kansas was their 2nd best of the year, only the NMU game was better. Hopefully this is a trend and not a flash in the pan.
  • The 58.3% eFG% that they allowed Kansas to shoot was just as bad, the second worst field goal defensive performance only to Marquette’s 58.5% eFG.
  • Kansas shot an astronomical number of free throws, with a free throw rate above 50%. Oklahoma and Ohio State were the only teams to post a free throw rate that high versus Michigan last year.
  • Kansas’ defense stifled Michigan’s offense to a meager .934 points per possession.
  • If it wasn’t clear, three point shooting is painfully important for this offense. Last year, Michigan was 13-5 when they shot over 33% from three point range and only 7-9 under that mark. This year, a similar trend follows, Michigan is 4-0 over the 33% mark and 1-5 under.
  • In John Beilein’s tenure, Michigan has beaten just three major conference teams when Michigan shoots under 30% from long range: UCLA (55-52), Northwestern (70-67 OT), and Illinois (49-43).
  • DeShawn Sims (28.7%) and Manny Harris (29.1%) take 57.1% of Michigan’s shots when they are on the floor.
  • While Darius Morris’ assist rate of 18% nearly matches Stu Douglass’ 18.6% (neither are close to Harris’ 33%), he has been extremely careless with the basketball, posting a turnover rate of 32.7 which ranks last among Big Ten players. For comparison’s sake, Stu Douglass ranks near the top of the conference with a meager 11.1% turnover percentage.
  • Finally, according to tweets from Mike Rothstein and Tim from MGoBlog, Eric Puls is leaving the Michigan basketball program to focus on his engineering degree.

Monday Links

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Game 10: Michigan at Kansas Post Game


Michigan didn’t get embarrassed, but I’m not sure the performances give them enough to build on going forward. It’s fitting that the final deficit was 11 considering Michigan routinely would cut the game to 11 and no further.

Michigan got outplayed badly for about 10 minutes in the first half and that was enough to seal their fate. The positive is that they played the best team in the country even for about the other 30 minutes.

Beilein didn’t go with the 1-3-1 zone early on, which was a reasonable decision considering how badly it has been picked apart this year. However, when he finally did pull it out, Kansas struggled to hold onto the ball and kept Michigan in the game with their turnovers.

The four factors make it pretty obvious what happened here. On offense, Michigan simply couldn’t shoot the ball. 39.6% eFG%, .941 points per possession, and only a 19.4% free throw rate. With that poor of offensive performance it’s surprising that they even were in the game. 5 of 28 three point shooting just isn’t going to cut it for this offense.

On defense, I’m hesitant to call this a great performance. Kansas shot the ball very well (58.3% eFG) and lived at the free throw line (free throw rate of 54.2%!). Michigan did a solid job on the defensive glass but their defense still has room for improvement. Michigan inched back into the game after forcing Kansas turnovers but Kansas’ 11-14 shooting run in the first half was really the difference.

At this point some weaknesses are becoming painfully clear, even beyond not being able to hit open shots. First, they are not a deep team. There are very few options on the bench who can give Michigan much of a boost. This is emphasized in the backcourt, where Beilein is only comfortable playing three guards at two positions. As well as the front court where Michigan is playing an undersized four and five man.

Last year’s team had similar weaknesses but they were able to overcome them. Mostly because they were able to hit three point shots. Something this year’s team just hasn’t been able to do. 10 games in, it has to be a trend rather than a slump.

Player Bullets:

  • Manny Harris: 16 points (6-15), 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, 1 block, 4 turnovers in 37 minutes. Manny did his best to keep Michigan in the game but it just wasn’t enough. Regardless, he is a joy to watch especially if he keeps producing at this level.
  • DeShawn Sims: DeShawn was relatively assertive today, he got plenty of touches and took 16 shots. His numbers (19 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 steals) could have been a little higher if he had managed to stay out of foul trouble.
  • Darius Morris: Darius airballed his first shot but afterwards he played one of his best games to date. 9 points (4-7 shooting), 2 rebounds, 4 assists, and no turnovers. He hit a few shots and made some really nice passes including a dime to Zack Gibson on a pick and roll. Hopefully Darius can build from this performance.
  • Zack Novak: Most of his 8 points came off of hustle plays, he also had 7 rebounds (5 offensive), 2 assists, 2 steals, and 2 turnovers. But, like most of the rest of this roster, his three point shot is missing as well (0-4 today). Michigan needs Novak to hit wide open three point shots in order to stretch opposing defenses. Judging by the way the alternative options played today, we will continue to see Zack but he just needs to find his shot.
  • Zack Gibson: Brutal. 1 of 6 shooting with 4 rebounds. Ever since I wrote that Gibson should play more, he has done his best to prove me wrong.
  • Laval Lucas-Perry: Laval found his way into foul trouble and didn’t really do much else. He was 0-2 from three point range but did add in an assist. His turnover near half court was brutal.
  • Stu Douglass: One of the only guys to actually hit a three, Stu was 2 of 8 on the night, he did add 4 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals with no turnovers. At this point, he’s the best guard on the roster and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him stay in the starting lineup.
  • Anthony Wright: Anthony Wright is really hurting Michigan out there. Part of it is that he plays some of his minutes backing up Manny Harris, but he isn’t quick enough on defense and his offensive game is pretty much just chucking up a couple threes.

Game 10: Michigan at Kansas Live Blog

Game 10: Michigan at Kansas Preview

Basics

Who: Michigan (5-4) at Kansas (9-0)
Where: Allen Field House, Lawrence, KS
When: Noon EST, Saturday, December 19th
TV: ESPN / ESPN360.com
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ 950 AM/WTKA 1050 AM
Stats:
Live Tempo Free Stats
Line: Kansas by 20
Pomeroy Profile

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Note: Make sure to read the Q&A preview as well

With their season falling apart more and more by the day, Michigan heads to Lawrence, Kansas to play the nations top ranked Jayhawks. To any rational person, a blowout appears to be in the cards.

The Jayhawks rely on the three headed monster of Sherron Collins (13 points, 4 assists), Xavier Henry (18 points, 4 rebounds), and Cole Aldrich (12 points, 10 rebounds). They can score the ball inside (54.6% 2pt fg) or out (44.2% 3pt fg), they don’t turn it over, and they crash the glass. Their offense scores 1.24 points per possession, good for 2nd best in the country.

The Jayhawks are no slouch on the defensive side of the ball either, ranking in the top 10 in field goal percentage defense. Opponents shoot a dreadful 38.2% eFG% versus Kansas. They don’t give up the three and are a solid defensive rebounding team.

[click to continue…]

Q&A: The Jayhawker

Jon Brubaker from The Jayhawker agreed to answer a couple questions about this weekend’s game. Here are his answers and my answers will be going up over there later this week.

kansas-picKansas is obviously the Goliath to Michigan’s David. If you were game planning against the Jayhawks, what are two weaknesses you would try to exploit?

This year’s version of the Jayhawks is obviously a very deep, talented, and well-coached team with few weaknesses.  Obviously the first step towards claiming victory over Kansas starts with limiting the ball down low to Cole Aldrich as best as possible.  Bill Self looks to get the big man going early and often to establish dominance in the paint.

Has Kansas faced much zone this year? How have they fared?

KU has faced zone only sparingly this year, and usually broke them very quickly.  Blessed with guards who can penetrate the lane and shoot the 3 efficiently, along with post-players who are deft passers and can hit an outside jump-shot, most teams find man to man is their best defense against this very talented team.

Brady Morningstar returns, what kind of effect will he have for the Jayhawks?

Brady Morningstar’s return is much anticipated, despite the Jayhawk backcourt already being overcrowded.  He will play a fair amount of minutes, however, as he provides 3 key elements while on the court:  defense, 3-point shooting, and ability to feed the post.  Morningstar provides outstanding perimeter defense and leadership on the court.  He is an excellent shooter from range, but perhaps most overlooked is his ability to feed the ball to Aldrich in the paint.  At times this year getting Cole the ball has been an issue, but with Morningstar on the court he should see his fair share of touches against Michigan.

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Everyone knows about Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, who else has been most impressive this year?

By far the most impressive player for KU this season has been super freshman Xavier Henry.  At first committed to play with other super freshman John Wall at Memphis, once Calipari made the move to Kentucky Xavier was released from this commitment and decided to attend KU with his older brother CJ, where both of his parents had played.  Xavier Henry is the team’s leading scorer at 18 points a game, and is fresh off scoring a personal-best 31 points against La Salle.

Any other final thoughts on the game?

Like most KU games this year, I think the game will be close through 10 or 12 minutes of the first half, while each team’s offense tries to answer the other’s defense.  What will eventually break Michigan’s back, as it had for other teams this season, is the play of Xavier Henry.  He possesses one of the smoothest strokes from the outside, and has the talent to take it to the hoop as necessary.  Eventually, through shrewd 3-point shooting and a seemingly endless stream of big bodies downlow (Cole Aldrich, Marcus Morris, Markief Morris, Thomas Robinson) the depth of talent and play-making will be too much for the Wolverine’s to handle.  If Beilein employs his zone most of the game it could get ugly.

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