Jordan Morgan has developed more in the last two years than many expected throughout his career. He’s transformed his body and developed into an effective player around the basket but he’s not an individual offensive threat. Michigan isn’t going to throw the ball to him on the block six or seven times per game and let him isolate with his back to the basket. His scoring is broken down into a handful of distinct categories: putbacks, transition baskets, pick and roll baskets and a handful of easy looks at the basket within the offense. We’ve studied the pick-and-roll in depth for some time and discussed how well Morgan runs the floor but here’s a closer look at some things that the Wolverines do to get him easy opportunities when they need a bucket.

This play is one of the most common ways, other than the ball screen, that Michigan generates half court offense for Morgan. The Wolverines love to run this play at the start of the second half and will also run it quite a bit out of timeouts when the offense is struggling. The play starts in one of Michigan’s more basic sets, pictured above, as Trey Burke works the ball to Evan Smotrycz on the wing.

As Burke passes the ball to Smotrycz, Novak (the off guard in this set) is going to cut down the lane. This is a modified version of Michigan’s shuffle set (diagrammed here). Novak is going to cut down the lane and flash for the ball.

Smotrycz isn’t going to pass the ball to Novak, rather he’s going to reverse the ball back to Burke at the top of the key.

From here, Michigan would typically reverse the ball to the other side of the court. To do this, Jordan Morgan is going to set a screen for Tim Hardaway Jr. who will typically end up with a great opportunity to curl to the basket and make something happen.

However, this is not the base offense and two variations are going to occur. Rather than cut back to the perimeter on the near wing, Zack Novak is going to set a backscreen on Jordan Morgan’s man. Meanwhile, Morgan is going to roll straight to the basket and use Novak’s screen to get open.

Burke doesn’t pass the ball to Hardaway as he would in the normal offense, instead he pivots back the other direction and gives the ball back to Smotrycz on the other wing.

As Smotrycz catches the ball, Morgan is flashing wide open in the post for the easy layup and he makes the easy pass.

There are many culprits here for Iowa State, most notably Royce White (#30) who is guarding Novak. White doesn’t provide any help on Morgan which means that once Morgan’s man is screened he’s free for the easiest of layups.

Here’s the full motion:

As well as examples of the same play versus Oakland this year and Utah last season.

Against Nebraska Michigan ran a variation of this play, screening for the screener on a ball screen rather than an off ball screen. The set begins with Morgan setting a ball screen for Hardaway on the far wing.

Hardaway comes off the screen and Morgan’s man stays to help on Hardaway but allows him to turn the corner a bit.

Morgan is going to roll as Hardaway quickly reverses the ball across the court to Burke. However, the play is made by Novak and Douglass, who are both waiting to set screens for Morgan’s original defender.

Novak’s screen picks off Morgan’s defender and Novak and Douglass’s defenders sit idle in the middle of the lane without providing any help.

Morgan has all of the space in the world as he cuts free to the basket behind the defense and Burke finds him for the easy layup.

In full motion:

This is a great way to make opposing defenses pay for all of the attention that has to be devoted toward defending the ball screen. Hardaway’s quick pass to reverse the ball is what makes this play because it puts Michigan in a position to attack.

Morgan is not a big post threat and he’s not going to develop into a post scorer overnight. However, wrinkles and reads like these are an important function of the offense running smoothly.

Those of you that have been around for a while will remember John Gasaway as the Big Ten Wonk while those of you that haven’t are certainly familiar with his work at Basketball Prospectus and ESPN Insider. We figured there wasn’t a better time to pick Gasaway’s brain than the Friday before Michigan’s first match-up with his alma mater, Illinois. The original tempo-free Big Ten basketball blogger, and one of our favorite basketball writers period, graciously took the time to share his thoughts on Michigan, Illinois and the Big Ten race.

I’d love to hear your unbiased thoughts on this year’s Michigan team 25 games into the season. Wolverine fans can’t find much to complain about with 18 wins but are also having a hard time figuring out just how good this team really is. Ken Pomeroy is a bit pessimistic on the Wolverines, and the U-M offense and defense both rank fifth in the Big Ten, but they are just a game and a half behind the first place Buckeyes. What’s your assessment?

Gasaway: If I were John Beilein I would be one happy cerebral X’s-and-O’s legend right about now. The Wolverines have just completed a brutal stretch in the schedule, and will now have a chance to show what they look like against teams that are merely mortal. Burke’s been way better than anyone would have dared to hope in November. No team outside Columbus is better at extracting turnovers from Big Ten opponents. Life is good.

(Ed: All of the interview questions were answered before last night’s action, Wisconsin over Minnesota (OT), Indiana over Illinois and Northwestern over Iowa.)

On December 19th you tweeted that Illinois was the most overrated team in the country. The Illini did beat Ohio State thanks to Brandon Paul’s heroics but are 5-6 since that tweet despite starting 11-1. Because you predicted this collapse, let’s hear your thoughts on your alma mater?

Gasaway: I first wrote about basketball for public consumption during the 2004-05 season, a year in which Illinois turned out to be rather good at the sport. I fancied it might happen again sometime. Alas, two NCAA tournament wins and six seasons later here I am: I’ve started professing a deep interest in per-possession happenings at Idaho and UNC-Wilmington just to distract my gaze and soothe the ache in my orange and blue heart. For a while there I could at least make fun of Northwestern, but then the other day the Wildcats won in Champaign so now I don’t know what I’ll do. About all I can say now is that I won’t take any trash-talking from Nebraska. Woo.

Bruce Weber has boasted significantly taller squads than Michigan for most of recent history and that’s caused the Wolverines problems. Is there any reason that Illinois won’t just throw the ball over the defense to Meyers Leonard for 40 minutes on Sunday?

Gasaway: Illinois has long worshipped at the altar of ball-reversal, which is fine as far as it goes — it sure worked in 2005 — but in practice that can often mean the Illini get a “Wait, why are we doing this again?” look in their eyes, by which time Leonard’s been forgotten and the shot clock is running down. Leonard is a tremendous talent and I can’t wait to see what he makes of himself, it’s just too bad for Illinois fans that he’ll be making something of himself at the next level. Also note that throwing the ball to Leonard presumes possession of the item in question, something the Illini can’t always claim. Weber’s men sport the second-worst TO percentage in Big Ten play. (Take that, Huskers!)

Brandon Paul is the leading scorer in Big Ten games but he hasn’t been particularly efficient. What’s the key to stopping the focal point of the Illini offense?

Gasaway: Give Paul this, he does draw fouls, and in fact does so better than any Illini player since Shaun Pruitt. (And that was a special circumstance. Pruitt couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean from a rowboat, and opponents were notably eager to send him to the line.) But against your low-low-foul Maize and Blue I don’t expect that ability to be decisive. In truth the very premise of your question flatters my team, perhaps unduly. The Illini are almost a full standard deviation below the league average for offense in conference play. The Ohio State eruption notwithstanding, the key to stopping such an offense has usually been to simply show up in time for tip-off.

Tim Hardaway Jr. shot Michigan into the NCAA Tournament last year and now can’t seem to make a jump shot (he’s made 7 of his last 46 threes). Are you familiar with any other recent slumps this dramatic? What’s the magical cure for John Beilein to coax Hardaway into his late season form a year ago?

Gasaway: Big Ten types will remember that Eric Gordon, of all people, went through a mighty slump during his one year in college, so it can happen even to the best players and biggest names. But you raise a great point. Hardaway’s slump has been so severe, and Michigan’s disavowal of offensive rebounding is so total, that it does present a thorny question. Basically Hardaway has to keep trying, and the Wolverines’ offense can look a lot better (and Beilein will appear to the world to be an even better coach) when those shots start falling at last.

Photo: Patrick Radigan

Trey Burke has saved Michigan’s season for all intents and purposes. Let’s hear your thoughts on the freshman who Ken Pomeroy’s similarity score compares most favorably to Brandon Knight.

Gasaway: Hey, UCLA refugee and current BYU stud Matt Carlino’s no slouch either, and the similarity scores point in his direction as well. Burke rated No. 7 on the list of top 25 freshmen nationally that I put together a month ago, and if I were doing an update now he may well move up a spot or two. There’s simply no way of knowing in advance if you can drop a Big Ten offense down on the shoulders of a given freshman point guard and have things work, but things are working. His stats speak for themselves, but Burke also has the most important non-stat quality a point-guard can have, self-assurance. What a luxury to know he’ll be piloting your offense this year and next and who knows how long.

The Big Ten is the consensus best conference in the country but the parity seems to be getting the best of many teams. Of the six conference teams with five or six losses – Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, Iowa and Northwestern – give me one team that you are buying to make a late run and one that you are selling.

Gasaway: I’ll buy the Hoosiers. Their D would give me a heart attack if I were an IU fan, but they can score — in both of the above qualities they’re like the Duke of the Big Ten. I’m also a little unclear on why people stopped talking about Cody Zeller all of the sudden. He’s having an incredible year. As for selling I’ll unload my Minnesota shares. What Michigan just went through schedule-wise is kind of what the Gophers are facing right now: two games against Wisconsin, home games against Ohio State and Michigan State, a road date at always dicey Northwestern — it’s robust.

The Big Ten race swings into full gear this weekend with the first of two late season meetings between the Spartans and Buckeyes. Is Ohio State the runaway favorite? Does Wisconsin or Michigan have an outside shot? Handicap the conference title race.

Gasaway: Yes, the Buckeyes are the favorites, though “runaway” may not be apt for a team that already has two losses. Anyway by my lights Thad Matta has the best team the Big Ten’s seen since Illinois in 2005. OSU did look oddly permissive on D at home against Purdue the other night, but for now we’ll suppose that was an aberration. Only thing: is it just me or does Jared Sullinger go limping to the bench in every single game? It’s uncanny, and it would be unfortunate if one of these times it were the sign of something more serious. As a fan I would really like to see what he can do during his college career’s final eight weeks.

1. Novak and Douglass spark 9-2 run to start the game

Coming into this game, Michigan didn’t know much about Nebraska. The Wolverines hadn’t played in Lincoln since 1964 and really had no idea what to expect from the Cornhuskers beyond what they saw on film. The best way to settle those early questions was to get out to an early lead and quiet the 7,000 Nebraska fans in attendance. That’s exactly what Michigan did behind the leadership of its two seniors. Zack Novak started the game with a deep three from the top of the key off a handoff and screen from Jordan Morgan to get things going. Novak stayed hot on his next attempt, hitting another three, this time off a pass from Trey Burke. Not only did the bucket give the Wolverines a 6-0 lead, but it was also Novak’s 1,000^th career point. He’s now just the 28^th Wolverine in history to rack up 1,000 points and 500 rebounds in a Michigan uniform. As John Beilein joked after, Novak probably had the steadiest climb to 1,000 points out of any of the 28. Novak wasn’t exactly as positive on the accomplishment:

“If I did it in a timely fashion, I’d care,” he said. “At this point, playing 35 minutes a game for four years, I don’t think that averages out very well.”

In hindsight, that’s probably one of the best ways to describe Novak: steady. He’s never out-worked by anyone and will more often than not hit the big shot. He did both of those in Lincoln and, along with another three from Stu Douglass, made sure to get this game off to a smooth start. Senior leadership is critical on the road and Novak and Douglass were instrumental in spearheading this Michigan win.

2. Hardaway’s underwhelming first-half performance helps Nebraska stay in it

Although Douglass and Novak played big roles in getting out to an early lead, Tim Hardaway Jr. continued to struggle. The sophomore’s struggles were a big reason Nebraska was able to hang around in the first half despite a tremendous defensive effort from the Wolverines. Hardaway was 0-for-7 from the field to start the game and missed his fair share of good looks and somewhat forced attempts. His first field goal attempt of the game was a contested 3-pointer with plenty of time left on the shot clock – not the type of shot you want to take if you’re trying to break out of a shooting slump. He seemed to learn from his mistake on Michigan’s next possession and posted up the smaller Nebraska defender. He made a solid post move, but the shot rimmed out. That’s the shot you want Hardaway taking but he reverted back to the three point shot for most of the half. Some shots were late in the shot clock, several were off of dishes from penetrating guards, but the results were all the same. Hardaway missed five shots total in the first half and drove to the basket only twice. His body language was as frustrating as his play and he was a primary reason why the Wolverines led by just seven points at the break despite allowing only 15 points.

3. Morgan’s buckets off nice passes from Burke get the offense going

Following a fairly uninspired offensive performance in the first half, Michigan needed to come out of the break with some energy. It was clear that Nebraska was simply not as good as the Wolverines, but it didn’t show on the scoreboard. Right out of the gate in the second half, that changed. Michigan went on a 10-0 run to start the frame, and Burke and Morgan played a big part in the run. We’ve talked plenty about the developing chemistry between Burke and Morgan so far this year, specifically on the pick and roll. People sometimes forget that this still is just their first year playing together and they’re still learning as time goes on. But in these back-to-back plays, it looked like they’ve been playing together for years and it helped Michigan finally get rolling. Just over a minute into the half, Burke and Morgan worked the screen and roll to perfection. Off the pick from Morgan, Burke drove and attracted both his and Morgan’s defender, leaving Morgan wide open under the basket with no help defense in sight. On the next possession, Morgan set a screen up top on Hardaway, who passed it to Burke on the right wing. Off the screen, Morgan cut to the basket and Burke sniped him out for another easy lay-up. Both plays probably were also a product of poor defense from Nebraska, but it’s good to see Burke and Morgan continue to develop together, and it came at a good time in this one.

4. Hardaway gets it going in the 2nd half with defense and smart play

After his poor first half performance, Hardaway came out of the break seemingly as a different player. He finished the game with just six points, but it was the little things that he did that really helped the Wolverines pull away. First, he took a charge. Following the charge, Hardaway had a hand in each of Michigan’s next six buckets. Hardaway needed something to get him going, and just that charge seemed to be the confidence boost that he needed. On the next possession following the charge, Hardaway scored his first points of the game on a nice drive and finish in the lane. From there, he didn’t try to force things and got others involved. In transition, he found Morgan wide open under the basket with a great pass. Then, after curling off a screen and driving in the lane, Hardaway attracted three defenders. Instead of forcing up a shot as he did in a similar situation in the first half, he kicked it out to Burke, who drained a three in the corner. Moments later, he drove down the lane again and this time found Novak open for a bunny under the hoop. The theme of Hardaway driving instead of settling for jumpers continued two possessions later. Hardaway drove down the middle of the lane once again and realized that this time he had an open path to the bucket for himself and finished with a finger roll. To cap off this run, he made a smart back cut and finished a wide open lay-up off a great back door pass from Novak. Hardaway was worlds better in the second half, and it wasn’t because he was shooting the lights out. He made smart basketball plays to help his team, and when you do that, chances are the shot will start falling too.

5. Matt Vogrich’s three 3-pointers bury the Cornhuskers

Hardaway isn’t the only Wolverine that’s been struggling recently. In fact, Matt Vogrich has struggled from behind the arc for almost the whole season. Coming into Wednesday’s game, Vogrich was just 7-for-33 behind the arc this season (.212 %). For Vogrich to truly be effective on this team, he’s got to be able to hit open threes in limited opportunities. On Wednesday, he did, and hopefully this will be the confidence boost that he needed to get going. In a span of less than two minutes, Vogrich made three shots from behind the arc, nearly half of his total amount of 3-pointers on the season. The game was pretty much in hand at this point, but Vogrich’s buckets made sure this one was in the books. Perhaps the most encouraging aspect was the bench’s reaction to every make. The camera seemed to pan to Hardaway jumping and waving his towel after every Vogrich make and the celebration on the bench was picked up on television in the otherwise quiet Devaney Center. Timely three point shooting is one thing that could make this team a force to be reckoned with down the stretch, especially if Vogrich and Hardaway can find their shooting strokes.

Photo: Patrick Radigan

In mid-January, Michigan opened an eight game stretch that featured six road games with a deflating loss in Iowa City. The Wolverines lacked focus and looked lifeless as they were slapped around by Iowa and whispers about their road woes grew louder. Just under a month later, Michigan demonstrated its growth with a convincing win at Nebraska. The lack of energy and execution in Iowa City was a thing of the past as the Wolverines beat a team they should, on the road, with relative ease.

Winning games on the road in the Big Ten is extremely difficult and any conference road victory, especially a win this routine, is a good one. Michigan’s second half offensive brilliance is likely to be forgotten due to the game’s trudging pace and anemic first half shooting but at this point in the season a win is all that matters.

For 20 minutes, Michigan’s offense wasn’t any more effective than it was in East Lansing on Sunday. Over two thirds of Michigan’s first half shots were three point attempts, Tim Hardaway Jr. was 0-for-7 and the Wolverine offense sputtered its way to a 22 points in 25 first half possessions. It was brutal but the second half was a different story:

Barring a few turnovers, Michigan’s offense was nearly perfect in the second half. The Wolverines scored 1.43 points per possession and would have tallied a second half effective field goal percentage of 100% were it not for Josh Bartelstein and Corey Person missing shots in the closing minutes. Instead they settled for 16 of 21 (6-7 3pt) shooting and a 91% second half effective field goal percentage.

The shift inside was evident as Michigan attempted just one third of its field goals from beyond the arc in the second half, double the proportion of first half two point attempts. The Wolverines made the threes they did take count, knocking down six of seven second half 3-point attempts. Michigan made more threes in the second half (5-17 first, 6-7 second) despite attempting so few. The shift in philosophy seemed more about patience than anything else as Michigan ran its offense and moved the ball, picking up assists on a remarkable 75% of its second half made baskets.

It was Michigan’s defense that provided enough time for the offense to find its way, holding the Cornhuskers to just .85 points per possession on the game. That’s even more impressive considering that Nebraska scored 13 points, on five of six shooting, in its final six possessions of the game. Eliminate those six garbage time possessions (all after the final TV timeout) and you are left with just 33 Nebraska points in the first 48 possessions of the game, or .69 points per trip. Nebraska has the league’s worst offense but that’s a dominant defensive performance against any opponent. John Beilein praised his seniors for their defensive efforts and rightfully so. The duo combined for five steals, a key reason that Nebraska turned the ball over on 25% of its possessions, and Douglass was phenomenal on Bo Spencer throughout.

Michigan needs a 2-0 week to remain within striking distance for the conference championship and comfortably in the top third of the league and this was the necessary first step. The Wolverines move to 7-0 after losses but have split their last eight games. A home game against Illinois, the only Big Ten team Michigan hasn’t faced this season, is up next on Sunday afternoon and could provide a nice opportunity to string together back-to-back wins.

Photo: Patrick Radigan

Player Bullets

• Tim Hardaway Jr.: Hardaway was 0-for-6 on jumpshots and 3-for-5 on layups. His slump is certainly still in full effect but I really thought he played a complete game in the second half: he attacked the basket (making 3 of 4 shots in the second frame), played with energy defensively and drew a charge and he also handed out three assists. The assists were a product of being aggressive either in transition or attacking the basket and the sort of smart plays that will help him regain that confidence. Michigan did a lot to try and get him going including two post-ups in the first half, and at least three or four of his jumpers were fairly unguarded, and it’s just a matter of time before he rediscovers his jumper.
• Trey Burke: This was a quiet and efficient game for Burke: 12 points on 4 of 7 (3-4 3pt) shooting with five assists to two turnovers. Burke made a nice read early to split a pick and roll for an assist and really let the game come to him in the second half. He moved the ball and didn’t over dribble but still made big plays. He also had two huge buckets early when Michigan was up 11-8 and 13-11 that helped keep Nebraska at bay. It’s extremely impressive that 12 points on seven shots and five assists has become a “routine” game for the freshman guard.
• Jordan Morgan: Michigan’s second half turnarounds tend to coincide with Morgan’s improved performance and this game was no different as he was 4-for-4 with eight points in the second half. Morgan grabbed six rebounds, handed out two assists and even drew a pair of offensive fouls in the second half.
• Zack Novak: Novak was essentially Michigan’s entire offense early, scoring 10 points in the first half, but was also impressive with a pair of nice assists in the second. The early scoring was critical as Michigan got off to the quick lead that it would never relinquish. Novak also broke the 1,000 point plateau for his career, a remarkable achievement for a kid with no scholarship offers from Chesterton, Indiana.
• Stu Douglass: 13 points on 4-of-7 (3-5 3pt) shooting, three assists, two steals, two rebounds and no turnovers in 35 minutes is a pretty complete game for an off guard. Add in great defense on Bo Spencer and I’m not sure what more you can get out of Stu Douglass. Douglass, along with Novak and Vogrich, has made over 40% of his threes in Big Ten games
• Matt Vogrich: Missed a first half three but got back into the groove in the second half. It started with some hustle as he made a nice defensive play with a deflection and then had three three point makes and an assist on four consecutive offensive possessions. The reactions on the bench were great to see and Vogrich could add another dimension down the stretch if he finds consistency with his shot.
• Evan Smotrycz: Smotrycz turned the ball over once and didn’t score. He seemed a bit tentative and had little if any effect on the game.
• Blake McLimans: McLimans checked into the game and made an impact, good or bad, on three defensive possessions: he provided strong help to force a turnover on one play but was also late with his rotation twice, giving up an easy bucket and and-one foul on another. He missed his three point attempt and didn’t grab a rebound so it wasn’t his strongest performance.
• Carlton Brundidge: Did not travel due to asthma/illness.

John Beilein met with the media following Michigan’s 62-46 win over Nebraska. Here’s video of Beilein’s post-game press conference with notes and quotes after the jump.

• Opening statement: “I think the game was a lot about our defense today. We have a couple of young men out there, two seniors Stu Douglass and Zack Novak, that really buy into playing defense. That’s not always normal for guys who are seen to be primary shooters first. They’re normally guys you hide in your defense. You don’t have to hide those two guys. They wanted to play their best players and did a great job on them. That kinda sets the tone for the rest of the team.”
• On the the 16-for-19 shooting performance in the 2nd half: “Well I think we did this in the Indiana game before. We gave them permission to make shots, it’s OK. It’s OK for three or four or five guys to make shots, and we can do it. We see it in practice. Doing it on the road is certainly a different environment. Really happy for Matt Vogrich. We need our bench to score more points, give us more defense, give us more rebounds. That was important for his mental psyche to get those looks.”
• On three-point shooting: “We got a little trigger happy. Don’t discredit their defense. They did not give us a lot of opportunities in there, but we did try to spread the court out a little bit and really get into the lane first. I think Tim set the tone with a layup in the second half.”
• On Zack Novak, who scored his 1,000th career point: “So few young men get 1,000 points. You just hope that first of all they’ll stay long enough before they end up getting 1,000, and then they have to have great perseverance and the opportunity to play when they’re young. So it’s not that often that people do that. It’s probably been the steadiest 1,000 points ever. If you look at him, he probably averages seven or eight points a game for four consecutive years, who does that? But he does that and he’s a great defender and just wonderful to coach. And if he’s got 1,000 points he’s also got a million points just in leadership that he’s shown us overtime… He has his life and priorities in the right order.”
• On preparing for this game: “It was different. It’s a one-time game, coming all the way out here I’ve got our guys drinking water like we’re going to California. But I’ve got so much respect for Doc, the way he carries himself, the way his team plays. I’m glad we didn’t fall the way Indiana, the Penn States and the Iowas did this year, because those are some teams that have really big time wins. For us, we have to get ready one time. For him, he’s gotta get ready 10, 11 times… It’s not easy.”
• On Tim Hardaway: “I said Tim, there’s other ways you can help us without making the 3-point shot. And that was it. He took the ball to the basket, he found Stu in the corner for a wide open shot, and then he ended up taking charges. There’s other ways when guys aren’t shooting well. I said, if i had you out on the court and you had a broken arm you’d still help us wouldn’t you? You can still do it. Five other ways to help us.”
• On Hardaway’s attitude after going 0-for-7 in the first half: “I think his teammates helped him get through that at half time. I wouldn’t let him get down. I told him to just take his time a little bit, find his seams, relax. I didn’t think any of the balls came off his hands very well. We just have to continue to work.”
• On coming on strong in the second half: “Michigan State and Ohio State are tremendous defensive teams… Those are teams in the category that you only see about 10 or 20 teams in the country. We felt good that we could move the ball and we learned a lot from that game and didn’t force. We took good shots. For a while there we missed a lot of threes. They were open. But we didn’t force things as much as we have in other games, whether it’s a drive or a shot.”

Words by Kevin Raftery, video by Patrick Radigan of CornFedSports.com.

Matt Vogrich, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Zack Novak met with the media after Michigan’s 16 point road win over Nebraska. Watch the video clips in the embedded media players below:

Novak and Vogrich after the jump.


Videos by Patrick Radigan of CornFedSports.com.

All photos by Patrick Radigan. Full photo gallery after the jump.

Photo: Patrick Radigan

Michigan rides nearly perfect second half offense into an easy win at Nebraska. The Wolverines move to 18-7 (8-4 B10) on the season and will host Illinois on Sunday. Full post game coverage (including video, photos and analysis) coming shortly. For now, here’s your post game thread.

Photo: Dustin Johnston

Michigan travels to Nebraska tonight for its first Big Ten game against the Cornhuskers. Tip off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. (eastern) with Eric Collins and Shon Morris on the call. The Wolverines look to remain undefeated after a loss while gunning for their second road win of the 2011-12 campaign. Follow along and participate in the comments section below before, during and after the game this evening.

Pre-Game Reading:

• Bracket Watch: February 8th, 2012
• Game 25: Michigan at Nebraska Preview
• Pick to Click: Michigan at Nebraska
• Video, Notes & Quotes: John Beilein previews Nebraska match-up
• Video: Stu Douglass and Jordan Morgan look ahead to Nebraska trip

We’re now a week into February, and March is slowly but surely creeping into view. We’re at the point in the season where every regular season game means that much more, especially for teams fighting to get off the bubble or battling for a conference championship. With a win at home against Indiana Wednesday and a loss in East Lansing to Michigan State Sunday, the Wolverines still are in good position for a solid seed on Selection Sunday. Most experts still have Michigan slated safely as a four or five seed in their projected fields of 68.

With a very manageable end to the conference schedule – Michigan’s final four road games are against Nebraska, Northwestern, Illinois and Penn State, all teams at the middle or bottom of the conference standings – the Wolverines could greatly improve their conference record and garner some solid road wins. Conversely, if Michigan doesn’t take care of business against teams that it should, the slide down the S-curve could be just as quick.

After the jump find an in-depth look at Michigan’s resume, a roundup of what notable bracketologists says about the Wolverines thus far, a look at the Big Ten’s NCAA tournament worthy teams and more. (Photo: Dustin Johnston)

Nitty Gritty

• Record: 16-7 (7-4 Big Ten) [Division 1 Only]
• RPI: 15
• SOS: 11
• Home Record: 12-0
• Away Record: 2-6
• Neutral Record: 2-1
• vs. RPI Top 50: 7-5
• vs. RPI Top 100: 8-6

Bracketology Rundown:

Every week leading up to Selection Sunday, we’ll have a full run-down of predictions from some of the nation’s most widely-read bracketologists. Here’s a look into what each expert is saying with three weeks remaining until March.

• Lunardi/ESPN: 4 Seed vs. Oral Roberts (Nashville)
• Glockner/SI: 5 seed vs. Long Beach State (Albuquerque)
• Jerry Palm/CBS: 5 seed vs. Xavier (Portland)
• Crashing the Dance: 5 seed
• Bracket Matrix: 5 seed

Around the Big Ten

We’ll also keep a close eye on the rest of the Big Ten and let you know who’s in, who should be in, who could be on the bubble and which games this week have the biggest tournament implications this week. If the season ended today, the Big Ten would likely put eight teams into the Big Dance.

Locks

• Ohio State (20-3 overall, 8-2 Big Ten): The Buckeyes won at Wisconsin on Saturday for the first time since 2000 and remain alone atop the conference standings. Following their fifth straight win, most bracketologists continue to have them as a 1 seed.
• Michigan State (18-5, 7-3): The Spartans rank sixth in RPI and also boast the second-toughest schedule in the nation. With a loss at Illinois last Tuesday and a win at home against Michigan on Sunday, they remain as 2 or 3 seed on most brackets.

Should Be In

• Michigan (17-7, 7-4): Despite a loss Sunday in East Lansing, the Wolverines still stand in good position with an RPI of 15 and seven wins over teams in the RPI top 50, a total which is tied for the best in the country with Baylor.
• Indiana (18-6, 6-6): Indiana remains as a 4 or a 5 seed in most experts’ brackets, mainly thanks to massive home wins over Ohio State and Kentucky. The Hoosiers also notched their second road win of the conference season with a victory at Purdue on Saturday.
• Wisconsin (18-6, 7-4): Wisconsin had won six in a row before falling to the Buckeyes on Saturday and still remains a 4 or a 5 seed in most brackets.

Bubble In

• Purdue (15-8, 5-5): After a 78-61 loss at home to Indiana on Saturday, the Boilermakers are sputtering and have now lost four of six. They’ll stay on the bubble in for now, but last night’s near close loss at Ohio State was a golden opportunity.
• Illinois (16-7. 5-5): The Fighting Ilini continue to be the most difficult team in the conference to figure out. After winning three in a row at the start of January, they’ve now lost four of five, although a win against Michigan State last Tuesday is helping to keep them on the right side of the bubble. The Illini still have trips to Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin and have to host both the Wolverines and Boilermakers.
• Minnesota (17-7, 5-6): The Golden Gophers have now won five of seven, most recently including a much-needed road win at Nebraska on Sunday.

Bubble Out

• Northwestern (14-8, 4-6): A solid week with a win at home over Nebraska and on the road at Illinois has the Wildcats’ tournament hopes alive. With a game at home against Iowa and at Purdue this week, Northwestern could move to 6-6 in league play and into the tournament picture by next week.

Big Ten Games with NCAA Tournament Implications

• Northwestern at Purdue, 6:00 Sunday: A win could possibly propel the Wildcats onto the right side of the bubble and a loss for the Boilermakers could push them out of the projected field. This is a huge one for both sides.
• Illinois at Indiana, 8:00 Thursday: If the Fighting Illini are going to safely hop off the bubble, they’re going to need a solid road win or two down the stretch. With three of their last four road games at Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin, this could be one of their best shots. The Hoosiers have lost just one game at home this season but their below average defense could help Illinois’ struggling offense.

Bracket Debate

And to top things off, we’ll take a look at one national game or storyline from the week before that could have a dramatic impact on the NCAA Tournament picture.

With the many ways to try to predict who will get into the Tournament come March, things can get pretty confusing at times. RPI, strength of schedule, body of work, top 50 wins… Buzz words and metrics fly around and it’s tough not to feel like you’re in math class. Basketball Prospectus’ Dan Hanner discovered a simple metric designed to simplify the process.

In his article “How to End Bubble Speculation in Eight Words”, Drew Cannon gives this simple eight-word equation: “Add a team’s KenPom rank to their RPI.” Cannon has used the equation since 2007 and has had remarkable results. Last year, the equation predicted 66 of the 68 teams correctly. According to Cannon’s current rankings, Northwestern would be the last team in with an “EBS” (Easiest Bubble Solver) of 115. So if you find yourself frustrated with all the number crunching, give Cannon’s equation a shot. It’s hard to argue with the results, which are surely as good as any at this point in time.