In many ways I think the team on the court has the same feeling as the fans off of it. How did this happen? It’s clear that this is a lost season and these kids aren’t dumb, they know it too.

Wisconsin put on a shooting clinic in the first half. The Badgers shot 15 of 22 (68.2%) from the field and 9 of 13 (69.2%) from three point range for an eFG% of 88.6%. Wisconsin got a handful of great looks but they also hit some incredibly difficult shots as well. In the first half Wisconsin scored 1.75 points per possession, not too shabby.

Wisconsin did cool off in the second half, finishing with an effective field goal percentage of 67.1%, but they controlled the offensive glass and rebounded 37.5% of their missed shots. Wisconsin played the game at their tempo, a remarkably slow 48 possession game. Wisconsin would milk almost the entire shot clock before draining a three or getting a wide open look under the basket.

Michigan’s offense wasn’t bad in the first half. They shot the ball well, 12 of 20 (2-2 3pt), and would have been right there if Wisconsin wasn’t making everything in sight. That offense dried up in the second half. Michigan shot only 5 of 19 (26.3%) and went 0 of 9 from three point range. DeShawn Sims scored only 3 points after scoring 15 in the first. In short, Michigan never came close to making a dent in Wisconsin’s 14 point half time lead.

From here on out, it’s about playing for pride. Motivating a bubble team is easy compared to motivating a team that’s trying to play their way into the NIT. There are a few winnable games left on the schedule but at this point it’s tough to predict what kind of performance you will get from this team on any given night.

Next up is a Thursday road trip to Minnesota, where just under a year ago we were celebrating a victory that pushed Michigan into the NCAA tournament.

Recruiting visitors: 2011 Country Day big man Amir Williams made the trip to Crisler. 2011 commitment Carlton Brundidge was also in attendance.

Game Highlights:
Player Bullets:

• DeShawn Sims: Sims is the most consistent scoring threat on this team. The problem is that he isn’t all that consistent. After a 4 point outing in Evanston, Peedi bounced back with 18. However, 15 of them came in the first half with only 3 (1-5) in the second.
• Manny Harris: It’s obvious that this season has worn on Manny. He doesn’t look comfortable and frankly he just can’t make a shot. Manny is now 23 of 68 (33.8%) over the last five games. I think this is both physical (hamstring) and mental (frustration) but it isn’t a good combination.
• Zack Novak: Zack Novak looks worn down. He took several shots versus Wisconsin, including one that split his lip. He has been battling down low all year and it looks like it’s got the best of him. Beyond his physical expression, he also missed 3 free throws and just doesn’t seem to be getting enough lift on his jump shot.
• Darius Morris: I still think that Darius is going to be alright: 8 points (3-4 shooting), 3 assists, 1 turnover. Darius hasn’t developed quite as fast as some people would have hoped but he is going to need to take a big step forward next year. He still has those freshman moments (getting burned on an inbounds play for example) but he has been having more positives than negatives of late.
• Stu Douglass: 37 minutes, 0 points (0-3), 1 rebound, 3 assists. It’s not Club Trillion, but 37 minutes is a lot of playing time to have that almost no effect on the box score.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: LLP appears to be in the dog house, he lost his starting spot and only played 7 minutes.

Basics

Who: Michigan (11-11, 4-6) vs. Wisconsin(17-5, 7-3)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: February 6th, 4PM
TV: CBS
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ 950 AM/WTKA 1050 AM
Line: Pick em
Stats: Live TFS
Pomeroy Profile
First Match-up: Preview / Post game

Wisconsin’s consistent success in the Big Ten is tough to explain. Luckily, KJ hit the nail on the head in his MSU/Wisconsin preview earlier this week:

Take a team that went 10-8 in Big Ten play in 2009, subtract the team’s leading scorer and leading rebounder (two different guys), add two freshman role players playing a combined 21.1 minutes per game, and you get . . . a team that starts the season 13-3 overall and 3-1 in conference play

Now go ahead and knock the team’s new star out with an injury–a guy who had emerged as the team’s second leading scorer, top rebounder, and a legitimate contender for the conference player of the year.  Now, of course, you have . . . a team that still managed to win 3 of 5 games to find itself in a second-place tie in the Big Ten standings. [ed: Now 4 of 6]

My point?  The Wisconsin basketball team, as coached by Bo Ryan, defies rational analysis.  But we’ll give it a shot anyways.

In an era of sports that is dominated by super stars and glamour, Bo Ryan defies logic and keeps on winning games; that includes all 5 match-ups with Michigan head coach John Beilein. Beilein will look to finally knock off Wisconsin as he attempts to right the ship in Ann Arbor.

Michigan led the first match-up for 35+ minutes before crumbling down the stretch while Trevon Hughes and Rob Wilson took over. Michigan proved to themselves that they can play with the Badgers, who shot terribly in the first match-up, but nobody knows what sort of effort you will get from Michigan on any given night.

All things considered, this feels like one of those games where Michigan will come to play and remind us that they are actually capable of putting a good game together. It’s against a big name opponent, at home, on a Saturday afternoon, and on national television. Then again, if there is one thing that this team has taught us, it’s don’t assume anything.

Michigan is 1-4 since they knocked off UConn two weeks ago. Some of the games have been close but 1-4 is not good, no matter how you spin it. So why is Michigan struggling? Here are the two biggest reasons in my book:

• Manny Harris is going through one of the worst stretches in his Michigan career. He not only missed one game due to suspension but he has played very poorly in the other four. He is  shooting 33% from the field (19 of 57) in his last four games and averaging more than 3 turnovers per contest.
• Shooting. Michigan’s shooting numbers over the last five games are absolutely terrible. FG%: 36.6%, eFG%: 43.2%,2PFG%: 42.5%, 3pFG%: 29.4%. It’s really hard to win games when you shoot that poorly.

A game versus Wisconsin is unlikely to cure either of these problems. Manny Harris has traditionally struggled against the Badgers and the last time out Tim Jarmusz held Manny to 11 points on 4 of 14 shooting with 3 turnovers. Wisconsin also has one of the best defenses in the country (6th in KenPom adjusted efficiency). They hold their opponents to 43.5% 2point shooting and 45.2% eFG shooting overall.

For more on Wisconsin and their personnel, check out my preview of the last game (which was less than two weeks ago). Trevon Hughes is the guy that makes Wisconsin go and after that it’s a crap shoot as to who shoulders the load on any given day. Keaton Nankivil hit 7 of 8 triples at Purdue after making only 1 of 7 versus Michigan. Jordan Taylor, Jason Bohanon, and Rob Wilson have also all notched double digit performance since Leuer’s injury.

Each player in the Badger’s lineup is just barely dangerous enough that you can’t forget about them on the defensive end. To have a chance in this one, Michigan will have to match Wisconsin’s defensive intensity from start to finish. Because Nankivil is the only player in the Wisconsin rotation over 6-foot-6, DeShawn Sims should be called upon early and often. His 23 point (9 of 14 shooting) 13 rebound performance in Madison was the only reason Michigan had a chance to win.

After that it comes down to anyone else hitting shots. That hasn’t happened much this year so it’s tough to predict anything but a Wisconsin win. Pomeroy likes Wisconsin, 58-53, and gives Michigan only a 26% chance at the win on their home floor. I’ll take Wisconsin 64, Michigan 54. Let’s hear your predictions in the comments.

Here’s the latest commit diary:

I can’t believe its February. As it stands now we have 8 games left before the playoffs, and an overall record of 16-8. Our coaches tell us frequently that this is the start of the best years of our lives and we need to take advantage while we can. That reality is starting to set in, but we need to finish the season strong and obtain some good momentum come playoff time.

I am coming off a calf injury that is now pretty much fully healed and I am able to play comfortably. Since we came back from Christmas break we have played a lot of games in a short amount of time. We had a good road win at Worcester Academy, who has a real good scorer in Billy Baron. Billy is going to be playing for his dad, and with my teammate Kyle Cain next year at the University of Rhode Island. He gave us some trouble but thankfully we took care of business and came out with the win.

We beat Phillips Exeter at home tonight by 40 and have a couple more games that we should win coming up. It’s hard to believe but it already starting to get warmer (anything above 30 is warm to me at this point), and we are going to have to push through injuries and fatigue and finish the regular season with some more wins. With the departure of a few guys, for various reasons, we are now down to 10 players. Despite of that everyone else has picked up the slack and it doesn’t seem like we have missed a beat. We are in a good position right now and just need to stay sharp and take advantage of the little time we have left.

Northwestern dominated Michigan in all facets of the game in what was easily one of the worst performances in Michigan’s 11-11 season.

Michigan didn’t hit shots but most of all they didn’t defend. The Wildcat offense walked all over Michigan, scoring 1.19 points per possession with a 65.2/57.7/50 (eFG/2pt/3pt) shooting line. The worst effective field goal percentage that Michigan has allowed this year.

The StatSheet graphs pretty much tell the story here:

Michigan played with Northwestern for a while but when both teams went cold, Michigan froze. Northwestern eventually found their stride again and blew the lid off the game.  The game was tied 27-27 with 6:40 left and then Michigan disappeared. They missed 7 of their final 8 shots in the half and from that point on they shot just 21.9% (7 of 32) from the field.

DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris were brutal. Sims wasn’t in it defensively and Luke Mirkovic took advantage, scoring 12 points with 4 assists. Sims’ offensive game was completely missing in action as well; he made only 2 of 9 field goals for 4 points. Harris got some decent looks but couldn’t buy a basket either, finishing 4 of 14 from the field. One factor that could have affected both Harris and Sims is that Northwestern ranks very highly in “effective height” (12th nationally), a mixture of all the statistics that height results in which includes block percentage, 2 pt defense, eFG% defense, and overall defense.

Novak (1-6 3pt), Douglass (2-5 3pt), and Lucas-Perry (2-5 3pt) weren’t any better. Michigan’s trio of “shooters” made only one three point shot in the final 28 minutes of the game.

I’m not going to go into full player bullets because, quite simply, no one played well. The effort was missing on defense and there was no execution on offense. The entire team looked lethargic and if you don’t show up to play in this conference, you will lose.

“You know, you want to get better as a person, as a player,” Harris said after the game. “A lot of these guys have to come back, like myself, got to come back and play next year. “Just got to keep fighting and work hard. The season (isn’t) over. Anything still can happen so we’ve still got to believe and fight hard.”

Harris was asked if he was confident returning to Michigan would be his final decision.

“Yeah, yeah,” said Harris, who entered the Northwestern game averaging a Big Ten-best 19.1 points.

Harris was hesitant to go into much detail about his thought process.

“I’m not going to get too much into that,” Harris said. “I’m definitely not thinking about (the future). I’m just thinking about getting better as a team.”

Harris’ Facebook status from after the game tells you just about everything you need to know about the situation.

This really doesn’t strike me as the right time to press Manny about his decision to stay or go. He will make that decision when the time comes and it’s clear that he hasn’t made the decision one way or another at this point.

The quote started off with Harris stressing the need to continue to work, fight, and get better every day. Those are all the things that he’s supposed to say. There’s no need to jump a kid after one of Michigan’s worst losses of the season about his draft status. That can wait until the season is over.

Neither Harris or Sims looked like NBA players today. But I suppose my interview with Aran Smith, of NBADraft.net, becomes a little more relevant with all the draft talk.

Basics

Who: Michigan (11-10, 4-5) at Northwestern (14-7, 3-6)
Where: Welsh Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL
When: February 2nd, 7pm EST
TV: BTN
Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ 950 AM/WTKA 1050 AM
Line: Northwestern by 2
Stats: Live TFS
Pomeroy Profile
First Match-up: Preview / Post game

Michigan looks to avenge one of the most painful losses in a season full of frustrating defeats.  Michigan coasted to a 17 point lead early in the first match-up before the wheels fell off. Michigan began turning the ball over constantly and Drew Crawford caught fire from three point range.

As we are all familiar with by this point, Northwestern epitomizes the perimeter oriented team. They shoot 47.9% of their shots from three point range at a 36.1% clip and they turn it over on 17.3% of their possessions. They don’t crash the glass (29.7 OR%) and they don’t get to the line much. Considering we have our own perimeter oriented team here, we know all too well that when the shots are falling, things are rosy and when they aren’t it can get ugly.

Defensively, Northwestern runs the 1-3-1 zone very well. Jeremy Nash is extraordinary at playing at the top of the 1-3-1 and forcing turnovers. On the year, Northwestern’s defense hasn’t been extraordinary. They rank 100th in Pomeroy’s adjusted defensive efficiency and don’t stand out in any of the four factors. The bad news for Michigan is that Northwestern does a great job defending the three, holding opponents to 29.8% three point shooting.

Northwestern freshman Drew Crawford scored 25 points on 9 shots in Ann ArborPersonnel wise, the three biggest concerns are John Shurna, Michael Thompson, and Drew Crawford. Shurna, a 6-foot-8 forward, is averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds per game while shooting 34.4% from three point range. Michigan did a pretty good job of holding Shurna in check in the first match-up, holding him to 11 points on 14 shots. The Wildcat’s point guard, Thompson, is a deadly three point shooter knocking down just under 40% of his attempts. But it was Drew Crawford that lit up Michigan in the first game, the freshman shot 7 of 9 from the field for 25 and snagged 8 rebounds to boot.

The keys for Michigan are pretty simple: defend the three point shot and don’t turn the ball over. Michigan has played significantly better defense since that Northwestern game, which gives me a bit of hope that they can slow the Wildcats offense. The problem is that Michigan has been turning the ball over a lot in conference play, turning the ball over on 20.1% of their possessions, 7th in the Big Ten.

Making a few three point shots would also help the cause. In the pre-game media round table, Anthony Wright let it be known that Michigan “shoots awesome in practice”. Let’s hope they start falling in Evanston.

With a short turnaround from the Iowa game, it will be interesting to see how much Beilein has drawn up to face the Wildcat’s 1-3-1 zone. Michigan looked like they had never faced a zone before and it would be disheartening to see them come out as ill-prepared as the last time around.

Vegas likes Northwestern by 2 while Pomeroy gives Michigan a 39% chance at the upset and takes Northwestern by 3. Michigan is capable of winning this game but it will take discipline and execution on both sides of the ball that we haven’t seen consistently. Thoughts, discussion, and predictions about the game belong in the comments below.

P.S.: It appears that Finney wing guard Isaiah Sykes still on the Michigan radar Michigan was in the house checking out Finney’s game versus Southeastern last week.

Aran Smith, president of NBADraft.net, agreed to answer a couple quick questions about Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims’s draft stock. NBADraft.net is one of the top draft websites on the internet and definitely worth a read if you need to get your NBA Draft fix. There are obviously a thousand opinions on how different players should be evaluated for the NBA and this certainly shouldn’t be taken as gospel, however I thought it would be good to bring in an opinion from someone who follows the draft religiously.

You recently dropped Manny Harris down your draft board from late first round 2010 to mid-second round in 2011. What were your reasons for this and how would you evaluate Manny’s draft stock at this point?

Harris is one of the best college shooting guard in the country, but scouts question his ability to hit outside shots. He’s not an overwhelming athlete and doesn’t do anything well enough to offset his subpar outside shooting. He’ll have a chance to get drafted, but scouts are no longer mentioning him as a potential first rounder.

If you were advising him, would you recommend that he leaves early? What can players gain from coming back for their senior year? How often does a player reach their potential and at a certain point “he is what he is”?

I am on the fence on him leaving this year. Harris could be reaching that point where leaving could be in his best interest. He has to weigh the benefits of earning a degree or whether he feels ready to take his game to the next level. We always get bombarded by the pro-college, don’t leave early sentiment, but there are plenty of players that actually wait too long and get exposed for not having the perceived upside they once possessed. I don’t think his game or stock would be damaged too severely by returning, but you never know. He is playing at a very high level and any dropoff from that could hurt.

DeShawn Sims has been putting up phenomenal statistics in conference play but he is a bit of a tweener going forward. How would you evaluate his draft stock?

Yeah I think he’s a European level power forward, and a tweener for the NBA. He has a good shot from outside for a big forward but I don’t see him having a role in the NBA.

What does each player need to improve on to raise their value?

Sims must gain more perimeter skills, although I think he’s best to focus on being a big man playing overseas. Harris needs to become a better outside shooter.

Top 5 NBA prospects in the Big Ten?

1. Evan Turner
2. Kalin Lucas
3. William Buford
4. JaJuan Johnson
5. Manny Harris

Favorite NBA prospect that no one is talking about?

Love the question. The “other” forward at Iowa State Marquis Gilstrap doesn’t get much ink, but he’s a nice prospect. I think he has a chance to make it in the NBA.

Say it ain’t so. According to Sports by Brooks, a 96 team NCAA tournament is a “done deal“. March Madness is easily my favorite sporting event but if this is true it will be a huge blow. I can’t see any way that this works. I don’t know why you have to mess with perfection. Let’s hope this rumor  heads toward internet purgatory rather than reality but with all the talk, it’s tough to deny the fact that a 96 team tournament is coming at some point.

Efficiency Margins

If you are looking for a sign that Michigan is playing better basketball in conference play then you need look no further than this week’s efficiency margin table. With 9 conference games played, Michigan stands 5th in efficiency margin even though they are only 4-5. Michigan ranks above Illinois and Minnesota but they are a ways behind the top 4 of Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Ohio State.

The most impressive point off this table has to be Michigan’s defense. Michigan has the #3 defense on a point per possession basis. There were times in November and December when I didn’t think Michigan was capable of getting a stop but the defensive improvement has been remarkable. It’s painful to think about what the season could have been if Michigan was playing defense at this level from day 1.

One guy who definitely deserves a shoutout for improved defensive performance is Laval Lucas-Perry. He hasn’t done much of anything in the scoring column but I’m convinced that he has stepped up his game dramatically in the last couple weeks. Here are his Roland ratings (I’ll post a full update later) from the last 5 games:

• Iowa: +8
• MSU: +15
• @Purdue: +10
• @Wisc: +10

m

• UConn: +13

In three of these games (Uconn, Wisc, MSU) he was top on the team in plus/minus and in most of the games he outperformed Morris and Douglass. Now, he just needs to start hitting some wide open shots.

Bring on the POTs

Michigan has defended the three point shot better than any other team in the Big Ten, holding opponents to only 27.5% from behind the arc.  Michigan might not be able to make three point shots but at least they are doing a good job of defending them.

A lot of credit has to go to Michigan’s guards: Stu Douglass, Laval Lucas-Perry, and Darius Morris. They have done a much better job closing out on shooters. Zack Novak has also developed himself into one of the better off the ball defenders on the team. He fights through screens and does a great job of defending the three point shot despite spending plenty of his time defending the low post as well.

Scheduling

Michigan attempted to go out and schedule plenty of tough opponents this year including trips to Kansas and Orlando for the Old Spice Classic. At first glance, that plan appears to have backfired. Michigan’s RPI calculated strength of schedule ranks 65th in the country. Not bad but nothing compared to last year’s schedule (10th) and certainly nothing to write home about.

A deeper dive into Ken Pomeroy’s strength of schedule rankings reveals that Michigan’s schedule might be a little tougher than one would expect. Pomeroy rank’s Michigan’s schedule the 9th toughest in the country.

Why the discrepancy? The RPI strength of schedule is 2/3 opponents’ winning percentage and 1/3 opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage. This is based purely on how many games a team’s opponents win, nothing else. Pomeroy’s ranking is based on a team’s adjusted offensive and efficiency numbers — how good a team is statistically.

I’ve mentioned Pomeroy’s “luck” statistic last week and how it painfully measured how many times Michigan has come up short down the stretch (Michigan is down to 333rd in luck). Judging by the large discrepancy between the two strength of schedules it appears that Michigan’s opponents might be just as unlucky. So it’s not surprising to find Marquette, Penn State, Connecticut, Utah among thirty most unlucky teams.

Essentially, Michigan has been stuck playing far too many good teams that have underperformed. Michigan is in a situation where they’ve been stuck playing these solid teams where there is little to gain RPI wise and much to lose. That’s not to say that Michigan shouldn’t be kicking themselves, the Wolverines are 1-6 in games decided by 6 points or less.

The Unbalanced Schedule

The Big Ten schedule is incredibly unbalanced this year with many teams playing their two games within a matter of two weeks. Because of this funky scheduling, it’s tough to take too much from the conference standings at this point. There are plenty of teams who have a schedule that is setting them up for either success or failure down the stretch.

• MSU (9-0) – Final 9: @Wisc, @Ill, PU, @PSU, @IU, OSU, @Purdue, PSU, Mich
• Purdue (6-3) – Final 9: @IU, @MSU, Iowa, @OSU, Ill, @Minn, MSU, IU, @PSU
• OSU (6-3) – Final 9:  PSU, Iowa, @IU, @Ill, PU, @MSU, @PSU, Mich, Ill
• Wisc. (6-3) – Final 9: MSU, @Mich, Ill, IU, @Minn, NW, @IU, Iowa, @Ill
• Ill. (6-3) – Final 9: @Iowa, MSU, @Wisc, OSU, @Purdue, @Mich, Minn, @OSU, Wisc
• NW(3-6) – Final 9: Mich, IU, @Iowa, Minn, PSU, @Wisc, Iowa, @PSU, @IU
• Minn. (4-5) – Final 9: @PSU, Mich, @NW, Wisc, IU, PU, @ILL, @Mich, Iowa
• Mich. (4-5) – Final 9: @NW, Wisc, @Minn, @Iowa, PSU, Ill, @OSU, Minn, @MSU

The obvious winner is Northwestern, who plays 6 games against the bottom three. The Wildcats have to be kicking themselves that they couldn’t steal one or two more games in early conference play. Illinois looks to be setup for failure. The Illini play 6 of their last 9 games versus to the top 4 and only one game against the bottom three.

In terms of the title race, Purdue looks like they need to sweep Michigan State to get back involved. Michigan and Minnesota are deadlocked right now but face each other twice down the stretch which could be pivotal games in terms of final conference standings.

Game Times

Michigan’s home game versus Minnesota will be on March 2nd, at 7:00 PM EST on Big Ten Network.

Recruiting Notes

Jon Horford (2010, Center) posted a triple double earlier last week with 17 points, 13 rebounds and 13 blocked shots in a win over Waverly.  Trey Zeigler (2010 G/F) has led Mount Pleasant to 7 straight wins and has been putting up monster numbers along the way. As previously mentioned, Trey was in Ann Arbor on Saturday to see Michigan take on Iowa. Tim Hardaway (2010 commit, G/F) had 27 points, 10 rebounds, 4 steals, and 4 assists in a 58-39 win over Homestead. Carlton Brundidge (2011 commit, G) had 26 points in a 64-63 loss to North Farmington.