Update: I’m an idiot and had messed up the off/40 column. It’s been fixed now so the numbers have changed a pretty significant amount. Sorry.

Thanks to a little research about how to utilize plus/minus statistics, Greg Simms and I are going to refine the plus/minus data a little bit. I was exchanging e-mails with Josh (of The Big Ten Geeks) and he referred me to The Hoya Prospectus, a Georgetown blog that is also tracking +/- data. The Prospectus takes the +/- concept one step further, taking into account the margin while a player is on the court and while the player is off the court to combine them into a “net” amount which is also called a Roland rating in the NBA.

So for example, Stu Douglass posted an “on” score (formerly the plus/minus number) of +13 versus Indiana however while he was off the court Michigan outscored Indiana by 11, giving him an “off” score of 11. His final Roland Rating is calculated by subtracting the off score from the on score which gives us a Roland Rating of 2.  DeShawn Sims posted an on score of 27 and an off score of –3 giving him a Roland Rating of +30. Etc. Etc.

The idea behind the Roland rating is to gauge of how valuable a player is to the team. In this case it tends to make it clear how big of a drop off you are dealing with when a player goes to the bench.

Here are the Roland ratings for Michigan players within conference play (and UConn):

• This sort of ratings system does guys like Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims a lot of justice. This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that has watched Michigan play because they essentially carry the team.
• Stu Douglass has just been brutal by this scale. He has struggled in conference play and even yesterday he posted by far the worst numbers on the team.
• Laval Lucas-Perry has decent numbers but they are about what I’d expect. Definitely not great but he has been a part of many Michigan runs versus Indiana, Penn State, and Connecticut.
• Vogrich, Gibson, and Wright’s poor numbers emphasize just how bad the bench has been. There is a significant drop off from Harris, Novak, and Sims to their backups.
• Darius Morris has an impressive +10 total and he seems to post positive numbers even when it seems like he is playing poorly.
• Looking at these ratings, they really seem to make more sense than the original plus/minus scores but I’d love to hear your thoughts. They certainly aren’t a perfect measure but they are at least interesting.
• Indiana and Connecticut game-by-game numbers after the jump

Michigan 68, Connecticut 63

Michigan 69, Indiana 45

Utah Statistics:

Updated Totals (Starting with Old Spice)

Notes:

It was obviously a painful day and the last Utah run really destroyed Michigan’s plus/minus numbers. Harris, Akunne, Sims, Douglass, and Morris were on the court when the game slipped away. Morris played with the backups to the end which explains why his numbers look to be the worst.  Guys like Lucas-Perry, Wright, and Cronin look a little better because they all played so few minutes.

Here is some more updated plus/minus data thanks to commenter gpsimms. We began tallying the data during the Old Spice Classic so seasonal totals don’t include Northern Michigan or Houston Baptist.

Updated Totals

Bullets:

• Zack Gibson has posted the highest plus/minus total in less than half as many minutes as the six people behind him. Tough to say that he doesn’t warrant more playing time, as the team seems to go on a run whenever he is in the game.
• Laval Lucas-Perry has been one of the only players to shoot the three pretty well this year so his offensive numbers make sense, however his defensive totals are a bit disappointing.
• DeShawn Sims is the most disappointing on this list with is -8 total. He needs to continue to step his game up, hopefully yesterday was a big step in the right direction.
• Stu Douglass appears to be one of the better defenders on the team. I think this started to become clear at the end of last year but he has posted the best defensive numbers of any guard on the roster.

Game-by-game stats for Boston College and Arkansas Pine Bluff along with notes after the jump.

Boston College Plus/Minus

Bullets:

• Zack Gibson graded out very well which is not surprising since he spearheaded Michigan’s come back with a couple threes late in the game.
• Ant Wright was part of a run in the first half where Michigan started to tighten the game so his solid showing makes sense.
• Laval Lucas-Perry continues to perform well in the plus/minus which is a bit surprising considering his play was pretty lackluster.
• DeShawn Sims killed Michigan versus Boston College, his numbers are terrible and he simply didn’t impact the game. On defense especially he struggled.
• Darius Morris has the worst plus/minus stats to date, this is obviously a bit of a concern but the Pine Bluff game definitely showed some signs of life.

Arkansas Pine Bluff

Bullets:

• Darius Morris: Darius got so much playing time that his totals were bound to be impressive. I am most impressed with his defense, which appears to have been very good.
• Stu Douglass: A brutal shooting game, but an impressive plus minus total, I think it’s safe to say that Stu is the most comfortable of the “point guards” running the offense. Now if he can make some three point shots…
• Laval Lucas-Perry: Couldn’t stay on the court and didn’t play well after hitting two early three point shots.
• DeShawn Sims: Peedi had a big day so it’s not surprising to see his strong offensive numbers, however the team appears to play better defense when Zack Gibson is on the floor.
• Manny Harris: Playing 38/40 minutes is naturally going to lead to a plus/minus score that looks remarkably similar to the final score.

As always, there are certainly flaws to these numbers and I’d love to hear your thoughts and suggestions. Discuss away.

I experimented with plus/minus data last year in an attempt to go a little more in-depth with the analysis around here. The numbers appeared to be a little too abstract to do much with but they are set to make their triumphant return, at least for right now.

Frequent reader and commenter, gpsimms, volunteered to attempt to track plus/minus data. Here is the data he came up with and some bulleted analysis after the jump. (Note: I know minutes are a little off but they should be close)

Columns explained: Minutes played, net points while on the court (scored minus allowed), points scored per 40, points allowed per 40, net per 40, normalized (net/sqrt(minutes)). Column headers are clickable to sort.

• Laval Lucas-Perry: The first guy who stands out. Not only did Laval score the ball well this weekend, it appears that he played good defense. Kudos to Laval for the good weekend.
• Darius Morris: Yikes. Not the finest weekend for the freshman, he’s obviously still adjusting but judging by these numbers, he’s got a ways to go.
• Anthony Wright: This isn’t really surprising, defense goes way down hill when Anthony is in the game. The offense is brutal too, at this point I’d be all for Gibson and Vogrich replacing a lot of his minutes.
• Zack Gibson: Gibson scores points when he’s in the game, that much is clear. He also isn’t scared to shoot, taking 28% of Michigan’s shots while he’s on the floor. For those of you who think that Gibson might be the answer on defense, the data doesn’t quite support that.
• Zack Novak: He typically grades out well in the plus/minus data which goes along with the argument that he does all the little things.
• Manny Harris: Harris’ numbers are obviously not going to show much because he played almost every minute of every game in Orlando.
• Stu Douglass: Stu hasn’t been shooting the ball well and drew a lot of criticism in the comments. The plus/minus data explains a little bit why he might have been on the court late in games.
• DeShawn Sims: Not his best weekend and he needs to be more assertive on offense. Curious to see how he comes out on Wednesday.

I’d love to hear your thoughts, comments, and criticisms about this data as well as plus/minus in general in the comments.

Here are the Illinois plus/minus numbers. there is nothing pretty about them but Kelvin and Laval were the best of the worst I guess. Watching that second half again was a bit like pulling teeth. No totals in this post because they will be in the OSU post.

Game Player:

Game Lineup: