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Most readers would probably agree that I have not been a huge fan of Zack Gibson. My counterargument is that I try not to play favorites and take a rational approach to analyzing players. Frankly, Zack Gibson has always been a guy who had all the potential in the world but never produced.

But the 2009-2010 Zack Gibson appears to be a brand new player stuck with his old playing time. At this point, it’s hard to justify John Beilein not finding ways to get Zack onto the court for more than 12 minutes per game. The numbers just don’t lie:

• 11.6 minutes, 7.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, and .8 blocks per game.
• Shooting 61.8% from the field (64.7 eFG%) and 73% on two point field goals.
• Offensive rating of 128.8 (team best) with a usage rate of 22.7%.
• The highest total plus/minus scores since Thanksgiving in very few minutes.

It’s early and the sample size is limited but Zack Gibson has been playing phenomenally. Is regression toward the mean possible with extended playing time? Of course, but why not find out?

Gibson is not without his flaws. He still has the frustrating propensity to pick up silly fouls (5.9 fouls per 40 minutes). He still shoots the ball a lot (he takes 27.5% of the team’s shots when he’s on the court). He’s still shooting just 25% on three point shots (but who isn’t on this team?). He’s still a lackluster defensive rebounder (12.8 defensive rebounding%) and he’s certainly not a passer (just 1 assist this year).

But he’s active on offense and defense and has been extremely productive. He runs the court well in transition and usually manages to find his way to a couple offensive rebounds while turning the ball over less than he has before (TO rate of 6.4%, down from 18% last year). He also has had a positive effect on Michigan’s two point field goal defense because he is the only shot blocker on the roster (7.6 block% compared to Peedi’s 2.9%). Not to mention the fact that Michigan seems to go on runs whenever he enters the game.

The biggest question is how to find him minutes. DeShawn Sims has struggled, but Michigan needs Sims to produce, so cutting Peedi’s minutes makes little sense.

The obvious answer is to play DeShawn Sims and Zack Gibson together at the expense of Anthony Wright. Wright is playing about 10 minutes per game backing up Zack Novak and Manny Harris. Wright has the worst effective FG% on the team, 31.8%, and simply isn’t producing.

By going big when Novak or Harris are not on the floor, Michigan would double Gibson’s minutes, replacing the least productive player on the roster with the most productive. Seems like a win-win. If there was ever a time to roll out this strategy, Wednesday’s game versus a Utah team that starts a 7’3” center and a 6’11” power forward seems to be it.

Previously: Stu Douglass (B-), Zack Novak (B), Laval Lucas-Perry (C), Manny Harris (A), DeShawn Sims (A)

Zack Gibson continues to leave Michigan fans scratching their head and longing for more. He manages to display just enough of his potential every couple games to make you realize that he could play at this level. The problem is that those flashes of potential are nothing more than a tease.  At 6-foot-10 he has enough ability to be a valuable asset in the Beilein offense but he just can’t turn his skill set into consistent production.

In a year that was defined by improvement across the board, Zack Gibson managed to take a step backwards. Zack regressed in almost every statistical category: minutes per game (13.9 to 12.1), offensive rating (106.2 to 97.3), eFG% (52.4 to 51.2), free throw percentage (72.2 to 50.0), points per game (5.4 to 3.9), and rebounds per game (2.8 to 2.2). The most frustrating part of Zack’s regression is the fact that, with Ekpe Udoh’s departure, there was ample opportunity for him to step up and become a contributor.

As we are all too aware, Michigan desperately needed size inside last year. With a 6-foot-8 starting center and a 6-foot-4 starting power forward there was plenty of minutes available for a 6-foot-10 big man. Zack didn’t necessarily seize the moment, he played more than 15 minutes in only 6 games last year (Duke #1, UConn, Northwestern (OT), Illinois, and UCLA). This was partly because he never played alongside DeShawn Sims but mostly because he didn’t produce when he was on the court.

Zack’s first problem was that he couldn’t stay on the floor without picking up silly fouls. He averaged 4.9 fouls per 40 minutes, the highest mark on the team with only CJ Lee and Dave Merritt breaking the 4 fouls per 40 minutes barrier. A high number makes sense for Lee, the team’s most aggressive defender, and Merritt, who almost always was facing a more athletic guard. Gibson just couldn’t seem to avoid cheap fouls.

When Zack was in the game he tried his best to make himself noticed. He used more of his possessions (20.2%) than anyone on the team beside Manny, DeShawn, and Laval. However, Gibson’s 97.1 offensive rating was the third lowest on the team, only ahead of Anthony Wright and Dave Merritt. For those unfamiliar with tempo free stats, ideally you want the players with the highest offensive rating to be the ones using the most possessions. Gibson’s statistics are just the opposite, he was near the bottom in terms of efficiency and the top in terms of usage.

Anyone that watched Zack play would guess that he didn’t shoot the ball well from long range last year. His 23% three point shooting percentage was absolutely dreadful. After shooting under 30% in each of his two years in the Maize & Blue, it’s hard to encourage Zack to launch anymore up from behind the arc.

There are a couple positives to point out on Zack’s statistical profile. He actually shot a very high percentage on 2 point field goal attempts, his 56.5 2pfg% was the best on the team. This is all the more reason that Zack needs to start shooting more shots from inside rather than outside. Zack also did a great job blocking shots while he was in the game, his 7% block percentage was more than double DeShawn’s 2.9%.

Shining Moments

• vs. Illinois – 10 points on 4 of 5 (1-1 3pt) shooting, 1 assist, and a block
  There is no doubt that this was Zack’s best performance of the year. Gibson iced the win when he blew past Tisdale and finished with a slam with 4 minutes to play (the biggest snub of the plays of the year poll). Zack scored 8 of his 10 points in the second half and was the difference between Michigan winning and losing. This Illinois game is often overlooked but it turned out to be one of Michigan’s more important wins of the year.
• at UConn — 7 points on 3-6 shooting (1-3 3pt), 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block
  After this game I commented on how impressed I was with Zack’s effort against UConn’s bigs. The numbers aren’t overwhelming but Zack played hard and gave Michigan productive minutes. A back-up big man doesn’t need to provide scoring, they need to not hurt the team and try to provide a boost with some energy. Michigan obviously lost this game, but it was still one of their more impressive performances of the year.
• NCAA Tournament
  -Clemson – 10 minutes, 2 points, 4 rebounds, and a block
  -Oklahoma – 14 minutes, 5 points (2-4 fg), 3 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 block
  Another two games that weren’t the most impressive on paper but two that convinced me that Zack might be starting to turn the corner. Clemson and Oklahoma were both tough inside but Zack battled against the likes of Blake Griffin and Trevor Booker in a way that we have only seen occasionally. He scrapped and hustled and gave Michigan a lift in two games where DeShawn Sims was invisible at times.

Final Grade: D+

Overall it was a disappointing year for Zack. He had all the opportunity in the world to take on a bigger role but he just didn’t step up. Will he turn the corner before his senior year? Perhaps the competition in the frontcourt with Cronin, Morgan, and McLimans will help push him along but I’m having a hard time seeing it. Despite Zack’s solid play in Kansas City, at some point you have to stop saying that a fifth year senior has potential and start to admit that he is what he is.

Now that’s how you win in the Big Ten.  Michigan didn’t look like they could handle Illinois on the defensive end early on but they tightened up the D in the second half and made the big plays down the stretch to pull off a W. It was a back and forth game and Michigan did just enough to pull off the win and avoid a damaging 0-2 start.

The story today for Michigan was balance. Michigan had 5 players in double figures and almost had a sixth in Kelvin Grady. In a game that featured 7 ties and 9 lead changes it was crucial for Michigan to have more than one option on the offensive end. Michigan isn’t going to be able to get by on the combo of Manny and DeShawn alone in the Big Ten and it’s encouraging to see complementary players stepping up.

Even in a balanced effort, Zack Gibson was the star of this one. Gibson was forced to step up when Novak went to the locker room in a bloody mess after colliding with Alex Legion. Gibson poured in 8 second half points including a triple and two dunks that had the crowd at their feet. Gibson brought energy to the game when Michigan needed something to get them over the edge.

Michigan was stellar offensively and played one of their best offensive games against a very solid Illinois defense. Michigan’s offensive efficiency (121.3) was the highest allowed by an Illinois defense that ranks in the top10 in defensive efficiency (avg 85.2). Michigan shot the ball very well with an eFG% of 59.4% and got to the line when they had to. They also held onto the ball with a turnover rate of 13.1% against a team that usually forces turnovers on almost 25% of possessions.

In a battle of offense versus defense it was Michigan’s defense that came through down the stretch. The defense held Illinois to 25 points in the second half after giving up 39 points in the first. They managed to shut down Calvin Brock in the second after a first half where it seemed like no one was guarding him. Zack Novak was no match for Mike Davis in the post but he fought hard and the bottom line is that Mike Davis can’t guard Zack Novak either. Illinois went with only one of the big guys for large stretches of the game so that they could try to guard Michigan. I was convinced at half time that this Michigan team wasn’t going to be able to guard anyone all year but I think slowly but surely they are learning how to get after it on defense.

The Big Ten is a dog fight right now and Michigan needed this one. There are 6 teams at 1-1 and preseason favorite Purdue is sitting at 9th. Michigan has the out of conference wins to boost their resume come March but they aren’t there yet, this is how games will be in the Big Ten night in and night out. Next up Michigan attempts to win a game at Assembly Hall and knock off the dreadful Hoosiers for the first time since 1995 before coming home for a tilt with Iowa. Michigan will be favored in both games and really needs to be sitting at 3-1 a week from now.

Player Bullets:

• Zack Gibson: Zack was feeling it on offense today and scored 10 points on 4-5 shooting and added a monster block in only 17 minutes. The best moment for me was when Gibson called for the ball and drove into the lane for a huge slam late in the game. The shock of the Crisler crowd was priceless. Michigan is a much better team when Gibson is playing at a high level offensively and hopefully this boosts his confidence.
• Zack Novak: Novak is a warrior, Zack hit shot after shot in the first half and it seems like he doesn’t miss. When you consider this is only his 14th game in college his confidence is pretty remarkable. Novak had 11points on 4-5 (3-4 3pt) shooting and added 3 boards and one assist. Novak is going to be giving up size in every game but he also forces defenses to guard him on the perimeter.
• Manny Harris: Manny isn’t going to be able to pick apart defenses like he could against the Florida Gulf Coasts of the world but he had a solid game in my opinion. Manny had 16 points, 6 boards, 5 assists, 5 turnovers, 1 block, and 3 huge steals. He made a lot of big plays on defense (but also fell asleep a couple times) including a huge block and a couple run out slams. Hopefully Manny can find his three point stroke (0-5) but he needs to start taking better threes rather than frustration threes.
• DeShawn Sims: Solid but unspectacular night for Peedi with 13 points and 9 boards. DeShawn hit some huge threes but didn’t get that involved in the paint. In the end though I’ll take a near double double every night from DeShawn especially when other guys are stepping up.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: 13 points on 4-1 (3-7 3pt) shooting and 5 assists with 1 turnover. Solid night for Laval in his first start. Laval is still adjusting but you can see that he is getting more and more comfortable. LLP also had a big block on defense and brings the size and toughness to the D that we really need in the backcourt.
• Kelvin Grady: Kelvin had 9 points on 3-6 shooting including the huge layup late in the game. Both Kelvin and LLP are starting to get in the lane more and it adds a new dimension to Michigan’s game.
• Stu Douglass: Stu’s minutes are decreasing quickly but he is a solid backup for Laval. Stu had 2 assists and no turnovers off the bench today and didn’t take a shot.
• Anthony Wright and Jevohn Shepherd: DNP. There just aren’t any more minutes at the power forward when Novak and Gibson play this well. Shep is more athletic than Novak but he just can’t score it like Zack. I don’t think we will see much Ant Wright the rest of the year.

It took Michigan until March 13th to win their 10th game last season. This year they have already reached the 10 win mark before the conference season has tipped off. Last year’s struggles against teams like Central Michigan and Harvard are nightmares of the past and now it appears that Michigan is poised to make a run at the NCAA tournament.

Tonight’s game felt like one that everyone knew we just had to get out of the way before Wednesday’s Big Ten opener. Michigan came out and got an early lead before falling asleep at the wheel. North Carolina Central gave them something to think about at halftime and Michigan responded as the lead ballooned to 20 points before falling asleep again. It’s frustrating to let teams hang around and I think this can come back and bite us but in the end a win is a win and North Carolina Central never really had a chance to win.

Manny Harris had another dominating performance with 29 points, 16 rebounds, 7 assists, and only 1 turnover. He definitely forced the issue a couple times early in the game but I loved to see him get in the lane in the second half. I think Manny had been settling for jumpers rather than taking it to the hole in recent games and Michigan is going to need his production at the free throw line in conference play.

The rotation still seems up in the air, especially at the power forward position. Shepherd started the game at the four but wasn’t very productive in the first half and Novak started the 2nd half. Jevohn did come in and give Michigan a boost with 2 put backs when Michigan was in a bit of a funk. Anthony Wright got a stint off the bench when Novak picked up his third foul but it seems pretty clear that he is getting cut out of the rotation. Novak, Gibson, Shepherd, and Wright are going to play the minutes at the four and Michigan really needs that second guy to step up and be a contributor.

Michigan had a poor day shooting the ball but held North Carolina Central to an even lower percentage. Rebounding was a wash. Michigan won the game by holding onto the ball and getting to the free throw line 25 more times than the Eagles. Michigan shot well below their season average of 80% at the stripe as well and only made 20 of their 30 attempts.

The final thing that’s frustrating about tonight’s game was that our RPI fell from the mid teens all the way to 37th. Our strength of schedule also took a huge fall down to 87. The Big Ten season will help the numbers but a game like this shows why it is so important to play teams that are going to fall in the 100-200 RPI range rather than the 300+.

Player Bullets:

• DeShawn Sims: Peedi tweaked his ankle in the first half and went to the locker room to get taped up. He came back and still played most of the game although he was definitely gimpy in half time warmups. Peedi had a solid game with 17 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals. Peedi had 6 turnovers though and a lot of them were pretty rough and led directly to NCC points or were blown easy opportunities.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: Laval is a 2 guard. I was always skeptical of all the talk that LLP would be a point guard on this team and thus far he has played strictly 2-guard and has zero assists through 3 games. LLP can definitely shoot it though and hit his first three triples today. I’m not sure what happened on his late botched layup on the dime from Manny, he must have been surprised to have the ball land in his lap.
• Stu Douglass: 17 minutes, 7 points on 3-8 shooting (1-5 3pt), 1 rebound, 1 assist, 0 turnovers. I was surprised to see that Stu took 8 shots but I think he looks more confident on his shot than he did when he went through a bit of a drought earlier this year.
• Zack Novak: Novak picked up some cheap fouls and was limited to only 17 minutes. If Zack is going to play the 4 he is going to need more than 1 rebound in a game though.
• Kelvin Grady: Kelvin shot 0-4 but this is becoming his team. He is getting a lot more minutes than Merritt and this time and is doing a great job holding onto the ball and finding open teammates. Kelvin had 4 assists and 0 turnovers in 27 minutes. Kelvin has only 9 turnovers in 12 games.
• Dave Merritt: Dave is seeing his minutes dwindle and was pulled less than a minute into the second half. Merritt is able to run the team but Grady is going to play more and more. I still don’t have a problem with Dave starting as long as Kelvin is playing more minutes.
• Zack Gibson: Zack needs to start hitting wide open three pointers. He had three of them today and didn’t hit any of them. If he can be a little more of an offensive threat it will help make up for his liabilities on the glass.
• Jevohn Shepherd: Shep was playing really well for a couple of games but has seemed to regress a bit. He doesn’t look as comfortable on his jump shot and at the stripe but he still brings some energy with athleticism on the glass.

I wrote in my preview of the center position about the lack of depth at the post position but I’m starting to wonder if John Beilein is that worried. I took a look at players 6’8 or taller on Beilein’s teams at West Virginia to see how many post guys were on the roster each year. I haven’t seen a lot of these guys play but D’Or Fischer is one of the only guys who seems to be a “true big man” in terms of size and rebounding.

2003 (14-15; 5-11)

• 22    Josh Yeager    F    6′ 8″ (14.2mpg,4.8ppg,1.2rpg)
• 34    Kevin Pittsnogle    F/C    6′ 11″    Fr (26.6mpg,11.6ppg,4.8rpg)

2004 (17-14; 7-9))

• 34    Kevin Pittsnogle    F/C    6′ 11″    So (22.7mpg,10.2ppg,3.7rpg)
• 40    D’or Fischer    C    6′ 11″    Jr (27mpg,10.8ppg,6.2rpg)

2005 (24-11; 8-8)

• 1    Luke Bonner    C    7′ 0″    Fr  (4.2mpg,1ppg,1rpg)
• 34    Kevin Pittsnogle    F/C    6′ 11″    Jr    (19.3mpg,11.9ppg,3.7rpg)
• 40    D’or Fischer    C    6′ 11″    Sr (19.2mpg,7.8ppg,4.3rpg)

2006 (22-11; 11-5)

• 33    Rob Summers    C    7′ 0″    Jr (3.8mpg,0.5ppg,0.4rpg)
• 11    Joe Alexander    F    6′ 8″    Fr  (3.6mpg,1.3ppg,0.7rpg)
• 34    Kevin Pittsnogle    F/C    6′ 11″    Sr  (36mpg, 19.3ppg, 5.5rpg)

2007 (27-9; 9-7)

• 11    Joe Alexander    F    6′ 8″    So   (25mpg,10.3ppg,4.3rpg)
• 33    Rob Summers    C    7′ 0″    Sr (21.6mpg,4.4ppg,4.6rpg)
• 43    Jamie Smalligan    C    7′ 0″    Jr  (14.4mpg,5.4ppg,3.2rpg)
  (Side bar: It’s almost shocking that Smalligan started for Huggins last year and saw his minutes only decrease by 3 per game while his scoring and rebounding numbers were basically cut in half. The drops in his shooting percentages are also remarkable: 50% to 30% and 45.6% to 18.3% on three pointers)

Beilein never had more than 3 guys 6’8″+ on his roster at West Virginia, for comparison Michigan State has 6 this year (Gray, Herzog, Ibok, Morgan, Roe, Suton). Michigan has four on the roster this year Cronin, Gibson, Puls, and Sims (Puls is only a walk on so maybe this could be considered 3). Of course there are still questions swriling about Cronin’s health and whether he will be cleared to play. If he is not cleared, there is only one true center on the team.

First off these lists prove that he has never really had a stable of big men. And even then there are a lot of names on this list that I wouldn’t even call true post players. If you cross Pittsnoggle, Alexander, and Smalligan off the list as not “true big men” you are left with one or two true post players per year.

The argument of course is that the Big Ten is a more physical conference than the Big East which tends to be more of a guards conference. This may be true to an extent, but what dominant big men are in the Big Ten this year?  B.J. Mullens at Ohio State and Michigan State’s stable of big men come to mind. DJ White, Sean Pruitt, Kosta Koufas, Brian Butch, and Dan Coleman are just a couple of the dominant post players that moved on. While there are certainly other post players that will step up this year, 8 of the top 15 (6 of the top 7) rebounders in the Big Ten last year  have moved on.

So would it be optimal to have more depth in the post? Probably. Will it be critical that this team can master Beilein’s 1-3-1 zone to negate some size concerns? Definitely. It will also help that Michigan has two solid rebounders on the wings in Manny Harris (4.2/game) and DeShawn Sims (5.4/game).  Overall I think Beilein is in a situation that he is more familiar with how to adapt to than last years problems and we should get ready to see a lot of 1-3-1 zone this year.