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Michigan had eleven players start five or more games last year, everyone but Eric Puls got at least 5 starts.

This much starting lineup variability is not optimal and with a team that returns so many players, it is unlikely that we will see a similar situation next year. John Beilein’s best teams have been extremely consistent with the starting lineup. For example, in 2006 John Beilein’s Elite Eight team had the same starters in 32 of 33 games, the one exception was senior night and Pat Beilein got the start. His 2005 team had four consistent starters and his 2007 team started the same five players every game.

It is clear that Beilein would like to stick with one starting group and ride them as far as he can. There were circumstances last year, namely Laval Lucas-Perry’s eligibility situation, that made things a little more complicated but down the stretch Beilein found a group that worked: CJ Lee, Stu Douglass, Manny Harris, Zack Novak, and DeShawn Sims. That group started the final 10 games and went 6-4 including big wins over Purdue, Minnesota, and Clemson.

Despite Michigan being a team that returns so much of their production (points, minutes, etc.) there is a remarkable number of question marks with the starting lineup. The only player who is really locked into a position is Manny Harris. The rest are question marks: Who starts at the point guard? Does DeShawn Sims play the four or the five? Does Zack Novak stick in the frontcourt or move back to guard?

Over the next couple weeks, I’ll be going through each position and examining the candidates to play at each spot as well as some of the requirements of the position. Today, we’ll start with the point guard position.

Continue reading ‘Position by Position: Point Guard’

Now that Kelvin Grady has decided to transfer it’s time to take another look at the roster and where everyone fits.

First, here’s one last word on Grady. There is no denying the fact that Kelvin was a great kid and a hard worker who gave his all to the program. Kelvin Grady was probably the most popular topic to debate in the comments over the second half of the season so I’m sure there are plenty of opinions out there but in the end he just wasn’t a good fit. His struggles on defense have been discussed at length but Kelvin also struggled in the half-court offensive set. The offense just didn’t seem to have the right flow or crispness that it did when it was running at its best. There is no denying the fact that Kelvin was a great ball handler, a solid shooter, and a human press break. In the end he didn’t have the length or grasp of Beilein’s system to be a contributor down the road. Hopefully he lands on his feet and makes the most out of his remaining eligibility at his next destination.

Roster

Here is a quick rundown of the roster by position. I broke people into four groups: Guards (1 and 2), Wings (3 and 4), Centers (5), and Hybrids (any combination of the first three) and the each group is roughly sorted from 1 to 2 and 3 to 4 (i.e. Darius Morris is more of a point guard than Matt Vogrich or Manny is a 3 while McLimans is a 4).

• Guards (1/2): Darius Morris, Stu Douglass, Laval Lucas-Perry, Matt Vogrich
• Wings (3/4): Manny Harris, Anthony Wright, Blake McLimans
• Centers (5): Ben Cronin, Jordan Morgan
• Hybrid: DeShawn Sims (5/4), Zack Novak (2-4), Zack Gibson (4/5), Eso Akunne (2/3)

The expectations for Darius Morris clearly jump up a notch, he’s going to have every opportunity to start from day 1 in the backcourt. The upside is that Darius was the gem of this year’s recruiting class and the one freshman out of the four that anyone would choose to throw into the fire. The downside is that learning Beilein’s offense is no cup of tea, Beilein has said himself that it’s almost impossible to predict which freshmen pick it up and which struggle. Regardless, Morris was brought in to be the point guard of this program and he is going to have a chance to prove himself.

Stu Douglass was the primary ball handled in spurts this year and I think he can shoulder some of the load. He is certainly not a traditional point guard but luckily this offense doesn’t rely on a point guard:

His team tried to run a conventional point-guard-driven offense, but was not having much success, so he listened to a suggestion from his uncle Tom Niland, a former coach at LeMoyne.

As Beilein explained: “He said: ‘Why don’t you play like we did back in the day, back in the ’40s and ’50s? Get two guards, put your two forwards in the corners, put in a high post and run some scissor-cuts off the post and spread the floor.’ ”

Stu is a good passer and this gives him a chance to get some more minutes per game even with the competition at the two (see more in Stu’s ‘report card’). LLP could also get a chance to run the point but I just don’t think he has a firm enough grasp on the offense at this point. Suddenly the backcourt doesn’t look quite as crowded but there are still plenty of options in Douglass, LLP, Vogrich, and Novak (who could play just about anywhere). It’s safe to say there will be plenty of competition this off season.

Recruiting

With Grady’s departure there are now three scholarships available for the class of 2010. This number could easily reach four or five depending on any more attrition — things like Manny Harris entering the NBA draft next year or Anthony Wright skipping his fifth year would each open another spot. The full year-by-year scholarship breakdown can be found here.

If Michigan doesn’t fill the remaining scholarship for the 2009 class by getting involved with Angus Brandt again (doubtful) or taking a transfer then I could see the open scholarship going to Eso Akunne for his freshman year. Beyond that it would most likely remain open for the class of 2010 and beyond.

The point guard position might become a bit of a higher priority in the class of 2010 but I think the top priorities remain at the wing and in the post. Ray McCallum would be a huge pick up but the odds look long there and would it be worth taking a less talented point guard other than McCallum when they are numerous options in the class of 2011? I guess we’ll have to judge by who Michigan is evaluating this spring and summer.

The Numbers:

The Good:

• Passing
  Stu is vastly underrated as a passer. From the first time I saw him play in the Michigan jersey I was impressed with how confident he was with the ball, especially passing it. I also think that Stu is the best player on the team at feeding the post. The numbers back Stu up as a good, not great passer. His assist to turnover ratio was 1.7 to 1, 16th in the Big Ten, but his assist numbers weren’t quite so high with 2.1 assists per game but that translates out to 4 assists per 40 minutes, the same as Grady and Lee, and his assist percentage of 19.3% is also in the same ballpark as Michigan’s point guards. Stu definitely has room to grow in this regard but he definitely displayed the ability to pass the ball.
• Three Point Shooting
  The percentage isn’t necessarily gaudy at 33.5% but it’s not bad either. In the “hot” games he turned everyone into believers with his quick and pure stroke. The shot looks good all the time and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big jump in Stu’s shooting percentage next year.
• Defense
  If I wrote this mid-way through the season I probably would have listed defense as a weakness. Stu improved by leaps and bounds on the defensive end of the court over the course of the year. He still has a long ways to go as an on-the-ball defender but he is one of the best in terms of fighting through screens and playing defense off the ball.

The Bad:

• Consistency
  Stu showed flashes of brilliance shooting the ball but really struggled with consistency. A lot of this has to do with being a freshman and being asked to do a lot from the get-go, as well as his role changing pretty dramatically a couple times throughout the season. Stu had 10 games without a three pointer, 10 with only one, and 15 with two or more.  This is a little bit too inconsistent in my book, if Stu could cut down on the 0-5, 1-7, 1-5 type games he could be very solid.
• Versatility
  Stu made two baskets and four free throws in the ten games where he didn’t record a three point field goal. He needs to develop at least one more key cog to his game whether it is a mid-range jump shot or the ability to drive the lane and maybe get to the lane. Adding another dimension to his game has to be the number one priority for Stu because when the three point shot wasn’t falling last year, Stu was very ineffective.
• Decision Making
  Stu clearly has ability to pass and shoot but he still needs to learn what is a good shot and what is a good pass. The alley-oops, three point shots from 6 feet behind the line, and bounce passes between three people need to stop. I give him a break because he is a freshman but if Beilein’s facial expressions say anything about how he really feels, you can bet that he let’s Stu know what’s a good decision.

The Future:

Point guard. There are a growing number of options at the two-guard on this roster and if Stu wants to keep playing big minutes he’s going to need to play the point. He’s not going to be a full time point guard but he needs to be able to play the position for 10-15 minutes per game. I think you definitely still want to play him at the two because that allows him to come off screens and get good looks from three point range. However Laval Lucas-Perry, Zack Novak, and Matt Vogrich will all be vying for playing time at the two-guard so being able to play two positions would be a great way for Stu to differentiate himself from the pack.

Grade: I’ve been struggling with figuring out a means to “grade” players in these report cards. I have basically two sides: grading versus expectation versus some kind of all-encompassing grade of production.

There were essentially zero expectations for Stu headed into the year. He was supposed to be a shooter but likely a ways off from being a contributor — after all he was just a 2-star recruit when he committed to Michigan. Stu also hit some huge shots this year, UConn and UCLA stand out, and his confidence continued to grow over the course of the year. Stu slipped out of the starting lineup in January but I really think that he started to believe that he belonged as the year progressed.

B-. Stu showed that he has the ability to fit into this team and showed flashes of great play but the lack of consistency and versatility are holding him back.

Kelvin is on the bench because he isn’t playing good enough defense. I have mentioned this several times but I wanted to include some video to help demonstrate the point. Stu Douglass did a marvelous job on Craig Moore, one of the best shooters in the Big Ten, on Sunday. He fought over screens and didn’t let Moore get many good looks. When all was said and done Moore ended up 2 for 10 shooting with 6 points, zero assists, and three turnovers.

Here is a quick clip of Stu sticking to Moore, to get the full effect I suggest you go back and watch the entire game because this is what you will see for most of it. In this clip Stu fights over a couple screens and eventually Moore tries to penetrate but is met by Gibson’s help before throwing a wild pass that is intercepted by Harris.

Kelvin Grady on the other hand has struggled on the defensive end and hasn’t really been a factor on the offensive end either. Kelvin has scored in double digits once during the Big Ten season (11 points versus Northwestern) and is averaging 4.8 ppg, 2.2 apg, and 1.6 turnovers per game in conference play (I understand these numbers are knocked down a little bit by the last three conference games in which he didn’t really play. But the point remains and despite the concerns over Douglass’ ball handling, Grady actually has a higher turnover percentage in conference play (25% vs 20%).

Both times that Beilein has inserted Grady into the lineup late in the game to deal with pressure defense, Grady has immediately made a key mental error on the defensive end. I don’t have film of the Penn State game but I do have the clear example from the Northwestern game that almost cost Michigan the game.

Compare this video to Douglass and you can see the issue. Grady is trying to go under the screen which is a big mistake. I know for a fact that this is being repeated time and time again because I saw the reaction when he made the same mistake against Penn State. The whole coaching staff erupted and Grady was yanked.

Defense was a huge problem for this team early on in conference play and now it is the thing that is keeping them in games. It just so happens that the team has started playing dramatically better defense once CJ Lee was inserted into the lineup. If Kelvin Grady was a double digit scorer or a guy who averaged a ton of assists, I could see the argument here. But the fact is that he doesn’t give Michigan enough on offense to make up for his painful mistakes on the defensive end.

• Talked with Chris at Taiwan Hoops and he said that Laval Lucas-Perry is playing in the Jones Cup and Manny Harris is not. Be sure to check out the schedule as well.
• Report: Kendric Price to Delaware
  Seems like a good move for K-Price who is scheduled to graduate this summer.
• Darius Morris update
  Lacy on Morris
• Scout Camp Highlights (I think these are free through 7/6)
  • Darius Morris Part 1
  • Darius Morris Part 2
  • Stu Douglass
• IU target Franklin is always on the move
  Roger Franklin article with no mention of U-M, also no quoted school list for what it’s worth. (Thanks for the link bluebufoon)
• Basketball: Windward’s Morris could be Michigan-bound in future
• Rivals updated their basketball rankings.
• Scout also updated their rankings and this one really leaves me scratching my head. No Morris in the top 100, Nix and Riley top 60 and Kirk top 80.