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Game 14: Illinois at Michigan Post Game

Zack Novak Bloody

Now that’s how you win in the Big Ten.  Michigan didn’t look like they could handle Illinois on the defensive end early on but they tightened up the D in the second half and made the big plays down the stretch to pull off a W. It was a back and forth game and Michigan did just enough to pull off the win and avoid a damaging 0-2 start.

The story today for Michigan was balance. Michigan had 5 players in double figures and almost had a sixth in Kelvin Grady. In a game that featured 7 ties and 9 lead changes it was crucial for Michigan to have more than one option on the offensive end. Michigan isn’t going to be able to get by on the combo of Manny and DeShawn alone in the Big Ten and it’s encouraging to see complementary players stepping up.
Gibson Dunk
Even in a balanced effort, Zack Gibson was the star of this one. Gibson was forced to step up when Novak went to the locker room in a bloody mess after colliding with Alex Legion. Gibson poured in 8 second half points including a triple and two dunks that had the crowd at their feet. Gibson brought energy to the game when Michigan needed something to get them over the edge.

Michigan was stellar offensively and played one of their best offensive games against a very solid Illinois defense. Michigan’s offensive efficiency (121.3) was the highest allowed by an Illinois defense that ranks in the top10 in defensive efficiency (avg 85.2). Michigan shot the ball very well with an eFG% of 59.4% and got to the line when they had to. They also held onto the ball with a turnover rate of 13.1% against a team that usually forces turnovers on almost 25% of possessions.

In a battle of offense versus defense it was Michigan’s defense that came through down the stretch. The defense held Illinois to 25 points in the second half after giving up 39 points in the first. They managed to shut down Calvin Brock in the second after a first half where it seemed like no one was guarding him. Zack Novak was no match for Mike Davis in the post but he fought hard and the bottom line is that Mike Davis can’t guard Zack Novak either. Illinois went with only one of the big guys for large stretches of the game so that they could try to guard Michigan. I was convinced at half time that this Michigan team wasn’t going to be able to guard anyone all year but I think slowly but surely they are learning how to get after it on defense.

The Big Ten is a dog fight right now and Michigan needed this one. There are 6 teams at 1-1 and preseason favorite Purdue is sitting at 9th. Michigan has the out of conference wins to boost their resume come March but they aren’t there yet, this is how games will be in the Big Ten night in and night out. Next up Michigan attempts to win a game at Assembly Hall and knock off the dreadful Hoosiers for the first time since 1995 before coming home for a tilt with Iowa. Michigan will be favored in both games and really needs to be sitting at 3-1 a week from now.

Player Bullets:

  • Zack Gibson: Zack was feeling it on offense today and scored 10 points on 4-5 shooting and added a monster block in only 17 minutes. The best moment for me was when Gibson called for the ball and drove into the lane for a huge slam late in the game. The shock of the Crisler crowd was priceless. Michigan is a much better team when Gibson is playing at a high level offensively and hopefully this boosts his confidence.
  • Zack Novak: Novak is a warrior, Zack hit shot after shot in the first half and it seems like he doesn’t miss. When you consider this is only his 14th game in college his confidence is pretty remarkable. Novak had 11points on 4-5 (3-4 3pt) shooting and added 3 boards and one assist. Novak is going to be giving up size in every game but he also forces defenses to guard him on the perimeter.
  • Manny Harris: Manny isn’t going to be able to pick apart defenses like he could against the Florida Gulf Coasts of the world but he had a solid game in my opinion. Manny had 16 points, 6 boards, 5 assists, 5 turnovers, 1 block, and 3 huge steals. He made a lot of big plays on defense (but also fell asleep a couple times) including a huge block and a couple run out slams. Hopefully Manny can find his three point stroke (0-5) but he needs to start taking better threes rather than frustration threes.
  • DeShawn Sims: Solid but unspectacular night for Peedi with 13 points and 9 boards. DeShawn hit some huge threes but didn’t get that involved in the paint. In the end though I’ll take a near double double every night from DeShawn especially when other guys are stepping up.
  • Laval Lucas-Perry: 13 points on 4-1 (3-7 3pt) shooting and 5 assists with 1 turnover. Solid night for Laval in his first start. Laval is still adjusting but you can see that he is getting more and more comfortable. LLP also had a big block on defense and brings the size and toughness to the D that we really need in the backcourt.
  • Kelvin Grady: Kelvin had 9 points on 3-6 shooting including the huge layup late in the game. Both Kelvin and LLP are starting to get in the lane more and it adds a new dimension to Michigan’s game.
  • Stu Douglass: Stu’s minutes are decreasing quickly but he is a solid backup for Laval. Stu had 2 assists and no turnovers off the bench today and didn’t take a shot.
  • Anthony Wright and Jevohn Shepherd: DNP. There just aren’t any more minutes at the power forward when Novak and Gibson play this well. Shep is more athletic than Novak but he just can’t score it like Zack. I don’t think we will see much Ant Wright the rest of the year.

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Game 12: North Carolina Central at Michigan Post Game


It took Michigan until March 13th to win their 10th game last season. This year they have already reached the 10 win mark before the conference season has tipped off. Last year’s struggles against teams like Central Michigan and Harvard are nightmares of the past and now it appears that Michigan is poised to make a run at the NCAA tournament.

Tonight’s game felt like one that everyone knew we just had to get out of the way before Wednesday’s Big Ten opener. Michigan came out and got an early lead before falling asleep at the wheel. North Carolina Central gave them something to think about at halftime and Michigan responded as the lead ballooned to 20 points before falling asleep again. It’s frustrating to let teams hang around and I think this can come back and bite us but in the end a win is a win and North Carolina Central never really had a chance to win.

Manny Harris had another dominating performance with 29 points, 16 rebounds, 7 assists, and only 1 turnover. He definitely forced the issue a couple times early in the game but I loved to see him get in the lane in the second half. I think Manny had been settling for jumpers rather than taking it to the hole in recent games and Michigan is going to need his production at the free throw line in conference play.

The rotation still seems up in the air, especially at the power forward position. Shepherd started the game at the four but wasn’t very productive in the first half and Novak started the 2nd half. Jevohn did come in and give Michigan a boost with 2 put backs when Michigan was in a bit of a funk. Anthony Wright got a stint off the bench when Novak picked up his third foul but it seems pretty clear that he is getting cut out of the rotation. Novak, Gibson, Shepherd, and Wright are going to play the minutes at the four and Michigan really needs that second guy to step up and be a contributor.

Michigan had a poor day shooting the ball but held North Carolina Central to an even lower percentage. Rebounding was a wash. Michigan won the game by holding onto the ball and getting to the free throw line 25 more times than the Eagles. Michigan shot well below their season average of 80% at the stripe as well and only made 20 of their 30 attempts.

The final thing that’s frustrating about tonight’s game was that our RPI fell from the mid teens all the way to 37th. Our strength of schedule also took a huge fall down to 87. The Big Ten season will help the numbers but a game like this shows why it is so important to play teams that are going to fall in the 100-200 RPI range rather than the 300+.

Player Bullets:

  • DeShawn Sims: Peedi tweaked his ankle in the first half and went to the locker room to get taped up. He came back and still played most of the game although he was definitely gimpy in half time warmups. Peedi had a solid game with 17 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals. Peedi had 6 turnovers though and a lot of them were pretty rough and led directly to NCC points or were blown easy opportunities.
  • Laval Lucas-Perry: Laval is a 2 guard. I was always skeptical of all the talk that LLP would be a point guard on this team and thus far he has played strictly 2-guard and has zero assists through 3 games. LLP can definitely shoot it though and hit his first three triples today. I’m not sure what happened on his late botched layup on the dime from Manny, he must have been surprised to have the ball land in his lap.
  • Stu Douglass: 17 minutes, 7 points on 3-8 shooting (1-5 3pt), 1 rebound, 1 assist, 0 turnovers. I was surprised to see that Stu took 8 shots but I think he looks more confident on his shot than he did when he went through a bit of a drought earlier this year.
  • Zack Novak: Novak picked up some cheap fouls and was limited to only 17 minutes. If Zack is going to play the 4 he is going to need more than 1 rebound in a game though.
  • Kelvin Grady: Kelvin shot 0-4 but this is becoming his team. He is getting a lot more minutes than Merritt and this time and is doing a great job holding onto the ball and finding open teammates. Kelvin had 4 assists and 0 turnovers in 27 minutes. Kelvin has only 9 turnovers in 12 games.
  • Dave Merritt: Dave is seeing his minutes dwindle and was pulled less than a minute into the second half. Merritt is able to run the team but Grady is going to play more and more. I still don’t have a problem with Dave starting as long as Kelvin is playing more minutes.
  • Zack Gibson: Zack needs to start hitting wide open three pointers. He had three of them today and didn’t hit any of them. If he can be a little more of an offensive threat it will help make up for his liabilities on the glass.
  • Jevohn Shepherd: Shep was playing really well for a couple of games but has seemed to regress a bit. He doesn’t look as comfortable on his jump shot and at the stripe but he still brings some energy with athleticism on the glass.

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Game 9: Eastern Michigan at Michigan Post Game


After a rough first 9 minutes, Michigan regrouped and took care of business. This one was a tale of two halves, Eastern got out to an early 18-11 lead and Manny Harris went to the bench with 2 fouls when the Michigan “role players” stepped up. Everyone is calling for David Merrit and CJ Lee’s minutes to go to Laval Lucas-Perry but they at least gave Beilein something to think about today.

A couple of notes about the teams performance in general. The turnover percentage was phenomenal, Michigan turned it over on only 7.1% (5 out of 70) of their possessions and had 24 assists. Michigan also shot the ball very well, 52.2% (48.5% 3pt) for an eFG% of 64.2%. This is starting to look a lot more like patented “Beilein ball”, hold onto the ball and make 16 threes (school record!).

The only glaring flaw was the poor rebounding (also typical of Beilein ball). Eastern Michigan rebounded 37.2% of their missed shots and Michigan didn’t really get a body on anyone to box out all night. Jerry Dunn actually went with man to man almost exclusively in the 2nd half and scrapped the 1-3-1. I would assume this had to do with Eastern getting some easy looks coupled with the poor rebounding and going with something he’s more comfortable with.

Player Bullets:

  • Dave Merritt: Dave had a big first half and really stepped up when Michigan was down early. In the first half he made both of his three point attempts and also had 3 rebounds. Merritt finished the game with 8 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal.
  • CJ Lee: CJ and Dave showed exactly why they are chosen as captains. CJ also hit a pair of three pointers in the first half when Manny went to the bench and Michigan was down. CJ isn’t the best shooter but those were just huge shots and he was ready when he was called on.
  • Manny Harris: Manny decided to put on a clinic in the second half. Manny was held to 2 points (and 3 assists) in 8 minutes in the first half after picking up his 2nd foul. In the second half he decided to show off his three point shooting, including a stretch where he hit two threes in a row and scored 11 straight Michigan points. Manny finished the game with 22 points in 23 minutes on 8-16 (4-7 3pt) shooting, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 1 TO.
  • Jevohn Shepherd: Shepherd is another guy who had a huge first half. In the first half Shep was 6-7 for 13 points. He didn’t get going in the second half but he wasn’t afraid to make plays in the first. Shep’s improvement is clear and he has established himself as the starting 4 on this team. Overall it just seems like the game has slowed down for Jevohn, as someone that has been a fan since he was a recruit I’m glad to see him playing well.
  • Kelvin Grady: Yet another guard who had a huge first half. Kelvin was letting them rain from long range with 3 three pointers in the first half. Kelvin added a layup in the second and finished with 11 points on 4-5 (3-4) shooting and had 3 assists and no turnovers. He looks far more comfortable and confident on the court and that’s going to pay dividends down the road.
  • DeShawn Sims: DeShawn looked to be on cruise control today. He scored 18 points but was only 7-17 (1-5 3pt) and really seemed to be settling for decent shots instead of getting inside.
  • Zack Gibson: Scored some points in garbage time but is really struggling with his confidence. Michigan is going to need him this year so hopefully he can get it together.
  • Eric Puls: He’s got the Beilein stroke! Great to see him get in there and make a three late.
  • Ben Cronin: Cronin not getting in the game pretty much seals his fate as a redshirt. I noticed Pat Beilein talking to Ben for a while during the last time out and it looked like he was explaining the situation to him. I also got an email that Beilein mentioned Cronin would redshirt at an alumni function before the Maryland game.
  • Others: Quiet day for the freshman, it was good to see Stu make a three but Novak never really got going. Anthony Wright didn’t get many minutes but didn’t force things either.

Overall Michigan took care of business and got the easy win. It was a little sloppy early but I think not having Beilein on the bench could be part of that. Hard to complain about a 31 point win no matter who it’s against. Hopefully Beilein can rest up and is ready to go next Saturday’s game at the Palace which should be the debut of Laval Lucas-Perry.

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Questions & Answers: One Month Progress Report

Michigan is sitting at 5-1 after a very successful November. Not many would have expected this team to beat UCLA and lose only one game (to Duke). I was convinced that Northeastern had at least a 50/50 shot to knock us off early in the season. However even with the surprising record there might be even more questions about this team now than before the season tipped off.

Should Anthony Wright be starting?

Using play by play data, I took a look at Anthony Wright’s numbers from tip off to the first media timeout. Besides the opening game against Michigan Tech the numbers weren’t encouraging.

Through 6 games Anthony’s stats in roughly the first four minutes are: 6 points, 2-12 shooting, 4 rebounds, 2 turnovers, 2 steals, and 1 assist. In fact if you take out the Michigan Tech game these numbers are even worse: 0-10 shooting and 0 points. Michigan has also been trailing by an average of 2.66 points at the first media timeout.

For comparison’s sake I wanted to look at DeShawn Sims’ numbers in the first four minutes he’s in the game. Substitution data is apparently very hard to come by in the college game so I could only look at the first four minutes after DeShawn registered a statistic. DeShawn’s totals from roughly his first four minutes: 6-12 shooting, 14 points, 9 rebounds, 2 turnovers, and 2 steals. (* Play-by-play data for UCLA and Duke games didn’t have anything besides rebounds and field goals)

While DeShawn’s numbers are clearly better than Ant’s, this could also just prove that DeShawn is a better spark off the bench. My biggest issue is that we are trailing by 2.66 points at the first timeout in games where we have won by an average margin of 11 points.

The concern I have with starting DeShawn is whether he really plays better coming off the bench, if he is more comfortable that way let it ride. There are plenty of other scenarios as well, DeShawn could start for Zack Gibson or Jevohn Shepherd could start for Anthony Wright.

The bottom line is that Michigan can’t afford to let a team like Maryland get off to a hot start on the road because they will never look back.

What effect has the three point line moving back had on shooting percentages?

The national average for three point shooting this year in the month of November is 33.7% compared to last year’s November average of 34.6%. However last years 34.6% was the highest November three point percentage in at least the last 10 years so this year’s number isn’t that unreasonable. Check StatSheet for every statistic imaginable about three point shooting.

Where has Michigan improved?

I posted a statistic earlier that Michigan’s three point percentage is much worse at this time than last year at this time 28.6% vs 36.3% last year. This number is also well below the national average of 33.7%.

Let’s take a look at the four factors:

08-09 07-08
eFG% 50.5 45.8
TO% 21.1 19.9
OR% 34.9 33.6
FT Rate 34.5 28.3

This is comparing this month’s numbers to last season’s numbers as a whole but still there is some remarkable improvement. Michigan’s eFG%, offensive rebounding percentage, and free throw rate have all shown improvement. The turnover percentage is probably influenced heavily by Michigan’s last game against Savannah State, before this game the turnover % was only 19.62.

The other improvement this year appears to be defense. Michigan is running the 1-3-1 zone a lot more successfully this year and it’s paying dividends.  Michigan’s opponents are shooting an eFG% of 43% compared to 51.4% last year.

Michigan has also improved in stealing the ball with a Steal% of 12.3 compared to 9.6 last year. Blocks are down from 9% to 7.3% which is understandable with the departure of Ekpe Udoh.

The Beilein recipe is to not turn the ball over, make three pointers, and create turnovers with the 1-3-1. Right now it appears that they are doing two of those things very well. This improvement along with Manny and DeShawn’s improvement inside the arc is carrying Michigan right now.

If you have questions on tempo free stats, start here.

Is Michigan a 2 man team?

The other issue is that right now Michigan goes as Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims go. Right now the duo combines for 54.48 % of Michigan’s points, 68.18% of free throws, 54.1% of offensive rebounds, 48.46% of defensive rebounds, 28% of assists, 33% of steals, 37.5% of blocks, 39.5% of turnovers.

Both Manny and DeShawn are playing better this year and also playing more consistently. DeShawn has increased his eFG% from 45.2% to 54.7 and is averaging 8 rebounds per game compared to 5.4 last year.  Manny has made even bigger improvements increasing his eFG5 from 43.1 to 58.3, his rebounds from 4.2/game to 8.0/game and assists from 2.7 to 4.2/game.

Right now these two kids are carrying the team and I guess you could say this is a bad thing but the improved efficiency is definitely encouraging.

What should Michigan fans expect this week?

Michigan has two very tough games this week with a road trip to Maryland and a home game against Duke. I think any Michigan fan’s should be pleased with a split.

This team hasn’t played a road game yet and Maryland will be a very good test. Vasquez is a streaky player and it will be important to slow him down early. Maryland looked solid in beating a Michigan State team that looked vastly overrated in Orlando. However they followed that game up with two sub-par performances against Gonzaga and Georgetown.

The Blue Devils are rolling and have a huge game at Purdue coming up Tuesday night. They handled Michigan with relative ease in their first matchup at the Garden and it would be hard not to predict another Duke win. Duke seemed to pick to the 1-3-1 zone apart for long stretches in that game. Michigan get’s another chance at home in front of a home crowd that will be out in full force.

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Monday Numbers

A couple random statistics for your Monday morning while I work on getting a real post together.

  • Manny’s 50 free throws made is good for 2nd in the country and 1st in the Big Ten (by 20 FTs)
  • Michigan’s three point shooting this November is almost 8% lower than last November and just under 3% below last years total.
  • 5 out of the top 7 returning shooters are shooting a lower percentage this year than last.
  • DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris are tied for 2nd in the Big Ten with their 8 rebounds per game.
  • Manny Harris leads the Big Ten in scoring with 22.3 ppg (18th nationally), DeShawn comes in at #7 with 15.2 ppg.
  • Manny leads the team in: minutes (33.7), points (22.3), free throws, rebounds (tied), assists, turnovers, and steals.
  • Wish You Were Here: Klay Thompson is putting up big numbers already at Washington State.

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Thursday Night Links: Manny Harris Edition

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Game 1: Michigan Tech at Michigan Post Game

It’s late so just some quick thoughts on tonight’s 77-55 win over Michigan Tech. Highlights!

Manny came to play. I don’t know if he’s been reading his press clippings, but it was one of the most efficient games I’ve ever seen him play. I know it was exhibition but it really gave a glimpse of how good he can be as he gets more comfortable on the wing in this offense. He scored on cuts, from long range, slashing, on the break, in just about every way possible. He forced one three early on and botched a lay up or two but other than that he was flawless. The stats speak for them self: 30 points, 30 minutes, 10-15 shooting (3-5 long range), and 7 boards.

Why is Anthony Wright starting? I’m sure there is a method to Beilein’s madness but I don’t get it. DeShawn is our best rebounder and best post player yet he is sitting behind a streaky one dimensional shooter who is undersized as his position. I think it probably has something to do with the post rotation and how Peedi is getting some time at the five but I just don’t like it. There is the argument that DeShawn is some instant offense off the bench but I don’t buy that either. I would much rather start the (more) consistent player and bring the streaky shooter off the bench. I did think that playing Peedi in the center of the 1-3-1 with Gibson on the wing was an interesting idea and it seemed to work ok.

Ant Wright: 27 minutes, 2-5 shooting for 6 points, 7 rebounds. (Ant scored the first six points and all of his shots were threes)
DeShawn Sims: 23 minutes, 5-9 shooting for 10 points, 12 rebounds.

The Freshman. It seems like Beilein is just going to play the hot hand of Zack Novak and Stu Douglass. I was worried about Zack after the exhibition game but he looked much better today while Stu blended in. Their combined stat line: 40 minutes, 1-6 shooting, 3 rebounds, 7 assists to 3 turn overs. Both Zack and Stu are some of the best passers on this team and even when their shots aren’t falling they are still a weapon.

Rebounding & Defense. I was impressed with the 1-3-1 overall tonight and think that we will see a lot of it this year. They trapped, scrapped, and fought hard on D in the 1-3-1. Beilein’s philosophy seems to be to trade a couple easy buckets for the turnovers that the zone can create. Rebounding is still a huge issue, a tiny Michigan Tech team out rebounded Michigan in the first half. Michigan narrowly edged the Huskies in rebounding 37-32 for the game. This is going to be a problem and honestly I’m not sure what can be done about it. Offensively Zack Gibson played very well but he only had 2 rebounds in 24 minutes.

Overall this was a fine performance and if Manny can bring this game night in and night out there might be a couple exciting games in Crisler tihs year. Tomorrow’s game is scheduled for 8pm against Northeastern and will also be televised on ESPNU. Northeastern edged by IUPUI in a game where star Matt Janning shot 4-13 (3-8 3pt). This Northeastern game is one that I’ve had circled on my calendar as Michigan’s first real test this season so it should be a little more interesting than these GLIAC battles.

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Wednesday Links

Manny Harris: One on One (HT: MichiganSportsCenter)

I’m ready for the season tomorrow. What are you are watching for in Thursday’s exhibition? (Which conveniently will be streamed on BigTenNetwork.com)

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Thursday Links

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Tuesday Links

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