I have criticized Laval Lucas-Perry several times on this blog. Calling him tentative, critiquing his ball handling ability, and wondering if he truly feels comfortable in the offense. Luckily, whenever I am convinced that he has lost it he comes up with a huge performance, seemingly out of nowhere.
For some reason when the situation looks dire, there is no one whose hands I would rather have the ball in than Laval Lucas-Perry. His shot disappears at times and he might have a couple turnovers or silly fouls, but he manages to make big shots when Michigan needs them most.
None of Laval’s career performances have come at Crisler Arena. In fact, a majority of his double digit scoring games have come away from home including the best and most memorable.
at Minnesota – 21 minutes, 19 points, 6-7 (3-4 3pt),
vs. Oakland (at The Palace) – 14 points, 4-5 (4-6 3pt),
vs. Creighton (at Disney Milk House) – 18 points, 5-11 ( 4-6 3pt)
at Penn State (‘10) – 31 minutes, 16 points, 6-10 (4-8 3pt), 5 rebounds, 2 assists
at Northwestern – 8 minutes, 10 points, 2-4 (1-2 3pt), 5-5 FT
Somehow, Laval’s best performances have come not only in games that Michigan needed to win but mostly in games they actually won. Michigan has won 4 true road games over the last two years under John Beilein. Laval Lucas-Perry is averaging 15.8 points per game and shooting 59% from the field in those four victories.
Michigan had eleven players start five or more games last year, everyone but Eric Puls got at least 5 starts.
This much starting lineup variability is not optimal and with a team that returns so many players, it is unlikely that we will see a similar situation next year. John Beilein’s best teams have been extremely consistent with the starting lineup. For example, in 2006 John Beilein’s Elite Eight team had the same starters in 32 of 33 games, the one exception was senior night and Pat Beilein got the start. His 2005 team had four consistent starters and his 2007 team started the same five players every game.
It is clear that Beilein would like to stick with one starting group and ride them as far as he can. There were circumstances last year, namely Laval Lucas-Perry’s eligibility situation, that made things a little more complicated but down the stretch Beilein found a group that worked: CJ Lee, Stu Douglass, Manny Harris, Zack Novak, and DeShawn Sims. That group started the final 10 games and went 6-4 including big wins over Purdue, Minnesota, and Clemson.
Despite Michigan being a team that returns so much of their production (points, minutes, etc.) there is a remarkable number of question marks with the starting lineup. The only player who is really locked into a position is Manny Harris. The rest are question marks: Who starts at the point guard? Does DeShawn Sims play the four or the five? Does Zack Novak stick in the frontcourt or move back to guard?
Over the next couple weeks, I’ll be going through each position and examining the candidates to play at each spot as well as some of the requirements of the position. Today, we’ll start with the point guard position.
Three Point Shooting Laval teased us with his shooting stroke in the non-conference season — he came out blazing hot which caused Michigan fans to start drooling. Laval clearly can shoot the ball, despite his slump he shot 34.4%, the same percentage as Zack Novak and only worse than the departed point guards. Those who have seen him in practice claim that he is every bit the shooter we saw in December and I think we will see a very good three point shooter down the road.
Penetration After appearing to be almost strictly a three point shooter early on, Laval started to show the ability to get in the lane. It seems like he can get there but he really struggles with what to do in the lane. If he gets fouled that’s good but he didn’t seem to be much of a finisher, nor did he seem to be much of a passer. The ability to get in the lane in itself is valuable for this team because no one else besides Manny Harris ever seemed to penetrate.
Getting to the Line
Laval posted a free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of 43.7% which was good for second best on the team. Considering there were only fourteen teams in the country that got to the free throw line less than Michigan this year, getting to the stripe should probably be encouraged. Using KenPom numbers (explained here) Laval drew 4 fouls per game, this would have been a respectable top 20 in the conference had Laval played enough minutes this year.
The Bad
Confidence There is no denying that Laval came into a tough situation. He was thrown into the fire and expected to be the third scorer. Things came easy early on when he was playing against teams like North Carolina Central and Florida Gulf Coast but the Big Ten season was another animal. The sudden change put a dagger in Laval’s confidence which eventually forced Beilein to cut his losses and go with Stu almost exclusively down the stretch.
Defense I was disappointed in Laval’s defense this year. In hindsight it was probably a foolish prediction but I expected Laval to be a good defender after reading about his strength as well as the fact that he played football. It didn’t really turn out that way. Laval consistently struggled on the defensive end of the court in conference play and I think this is one of the biggest reasons that Stu passed him on the depth chart.
Learning the Offense
By the end of the year it became clear that Laval just didn’t have the same understanding of the offense as some of the other guards. When there were open cutters he typically hesitated to make the pass and either didn’t make it or made it too late. Laval played huge minutes in the first half of the Michigan State game and I think that played a huge factor in Michigan’s inability to score. Different kids understand the offense at different speeds so I’m sure this is something that he will continue to work with Beilein on. The bottom line is that I don’t want Laval playing the “point guard” if he isn’t comfortable passing the ball in the flow of the offense.
The Future
I think Stu Douglass is a better candidate to get some minutes at the point guard next year because of his understanding of the system but I wouldn’t be shocked if Laval got a shot. This summer it will be important for Laval to continue to get comfortable as well as work on his defense and ball handling. Hitting a wide open jumper is one thing but doing it while not affecting the flow of the offense is another.
The beauty here is that this was only Laval’s freshman year because he won his appeal with the NCAA. I would feel a lot less comfortable with his role in the program if he had sophomore eligibility rather than freshman eligibility this year. The way this year played out was probably frustrating for Laval but I think it definitely will help him understand what he needs to get done this off-season.
Shining Moments
vs. Oakland — 16 minutes, 14 points, 4-6 3pt
Laval’s debut came with an unfair amount of expectations. Tim McCormick and yours truly had been hyping Laval’s addition to the lineup since long before the season even began. Laval didn’t do much to dampen the enthusiasm, he came out on fire and put on a show for the pro-Michigan crowd at the Palace. It was one of the best offensive performances of the year from Michigan and LLP spearheaded it with his early three point bombs.
at Minnesota — 21 minutes, 19 points, 6-7 shooting (3-4 3pt)
This was one of the most heroic and unexpected performances of the entire year. Despite making only 6 shots in the last 8 games, Laval stepped up with the season on the line. Laval not only found his stroke but he also found it at the best time. Michigan appeared to be dead in the water facing a double digit deficit on the road but a few three point shots from LLP and Michigan was back in business. In many ways the Minnesota game was a microcosm of the entire season and it certainly put a nice bookend of Laval’s freshman season.
Grading
Final Grade: C. Laval had to deal with unfair expectations from day 1 and his season is definitely a bit disappointing. After averaging 12.7 points in his first six games, Laval averaged only 4.6 points in his final twenty. If you take out his 19 point performance against Minnesota that number falls well under 4 points per game.
Still, Laval was instrumental in two of Michigan’s season saving comebacks (at Indiana & Minnesota) and showed enough of his potential to not be discouraged. His stroke is pure but after they started missing, his confidence plummeted and eventually started affecting the rest of his game. I am confident that he comes around next year but his final grade has to represent a mostly disappointing season.
Now that Kelvin Grady has decided to transfer it’s time to take another look at the roster and where everyone fits.
First, here’s one last word on Grady. There is no denying the fact that Kelvin was a great kid and a hard worker who gave his all to the program. Kelvin Grady was probably the most popular topic to debate in the comments over the second half of the season so I’m sure there are plenty of opinions out there but in the end he just wasn’t a good fit. His struggles on defense have been discussed at length but Kelvin also struggled in the half-court offensive set. The offense just didn’t seem to have the right flow or crispness that it did when it was running at its best. There is no denying the fact that Kelvin was a great ball handler, a solid shooter, and a human press break. In the end he didn’t have the length or grasp of Beilein’s system to be a contributor down the road. Hopefully he lands on his feet and makes the most out of his remaining eligibility at his next destination.
Roster
Here is a quick rundown of the roster by position. I broke people into four groups: Guards (1 and 2), Wings (3 and 4), Centers (5), and Hybrids (any combination of the first three) and the each group is roughly sorted from 1 to 2 and 3 to 4 (i.e. Darius Morris is more of a point guard than Matt Vogrich or Manny is a 3 while McLimans is a 4).
Guards (1/2): Darius Morris, Stu Douglass, Laval Lucas-Perry, Matt Vogrich
Wings (3/4): Manny Harris, Anthony Wright, Blake McLimans
The expectations for Darius Morris clearly jump up a notch, he’s going to have every opportunity to start from day 1 in the backcourt. The upside is that Darius was the gem of this year’s recruiting class and the one freshman out of the four that anyone would choose to throw into the fire. The downside is that learning Beilein’s offense is no cup of tea, Beilein has said himself that it’s almost impossible to predict which freshmen pick it up and which struggle. Regardless, Morris was brought in to be the point guard of this program and he is going to have a chance to prove himself.
Stu Douglass was the primary ball handled in spurts this year and I think he can shoulder some of the load. He is certainly not a traditional point guard but luckily this offense doesn’t rely on a point guard:
His team tried to run a conventional point-guard-driven offense, but was not having much success, so he listened to a suggestion from his uncle Tom Niland, a former coach at LeMoyne.
As Beilein explained: “He said: ‘Why don’t you play like we did back in the day, back in the ’40s and ’50s? Get two guards, put your two forwards in the corners, put in a high post and run some scissor-cuts off the post and spread the floor.’ ”
Stu is a good passer and this gives him a chance to get some more minutes per game even with the competition at the two (see more in Stu’s ‘report card’). LLP could also get a chance to run the point but I just don’t think he has a firm enough grasp on the offense at this point. Suddenly the backcourt doesn’t look quite as crowded but there are still plenty of options in Douglass, LLP, Vogrich, and Novak (who could play just about anywhere). It’s safe to say there will be plenty of competition this off season.
Recruiting
With Grady’s departure there are now three scholarships available for the class of 2010. This number could easily reach four or five depending on any more attrition — things like Manny Harris entering the NBA draft next year or Anthony Wright skipping his fifth year would each open another spot. The full year-by-year scholarship breakdown can be found here.
If Michigan doesn’t fill the remaining scholarship for the 2009 class by getting involved with Angus Brandt again (doubtful) or taking a transfer then I could see the open scholarship going to Eso Akunne for his freshman year. Beyond that it would most likely remain open for the class of 2010 and beyond.
The point guard position might become a bit of a higher priority in the class of 2010 but I think the top priorities remain at the wing and in the post. Ray McCallum would be a huge pick up but the odds look long there and would it be worth taking a less talented point guard other than McCallum when they are numerous options in the class of 2011? I guess we’ll have to judge by who Michigan is evaluating this spring and summer.
For a guy that hasn’t even played a game in Ann Arbor, Laval Lucas-Perry is getting plenty of buzz. Tim McCormick predicted that Laval will be the best point guard at Michigan since Rumeal Robinson. Dick Vitale has called him one of the top 5 impact transfers in the country. Jeff Goodman calls him the #4 mid season addition (Michigan will face #1 (Legion) and #2 (Stanley Robinson, UConn) on the list). It’s almost impossible to watch a Michigan broadcast without hearing his name. But the questions remain… Who is Laval Lucas-Perry? Where did he come from? How good is he?
Most people who don’t consider themselves basketball recruitniks probably don’t know much about Laval Lucas-Perry other than the fact that he’s been sitting at the end of the bench for a bout a year now and has pretty good taste in suits.
This post will act as a primer for those fans who need to catch up on Laval before his Michigan debut this Saturday.
The Recruit
Laval floated off the radar a bit at Flint Powers Catholic high school, overshadowed by a star studded in-state class that included Manny Harris, Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, Dar Tucker, Alex Legion among others. Laval finished his high school career as a 3 star recruit (#138 overall) and rated as the #6 prospect in the state of Michigan.
Laval committed to Arizona over Boston College, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, and Wisconsin. His recruitment essentially came down to Arizona, Michigan, and Michigan State. Michigan appeared to have as good of a shot as anyone else until Alex Legion recommitted the day before Laval Lucas-Perry’s announcement. When Legion filled the last remaining scholarship in the class of 2007 it was pretty clear that Laval would be looking elsewhere. Michigan State also appeared to be eliminated when their 2007 class already included three guards as well, Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, and Chris Allen.
We don’t know if Laval would have gone to Michigan if Legion hadn’t recommitted but looking back it would have been much nicer to have Laval than Alex’s “commitment”. In the end Laval committed to Arizona because of his familiarity with the program (he camped there that summer and received an offer) and most of all his respect for Lute Olson.
The Wildcat
Laval arrived in Tuscon alongside NBA point guard Jerryd Bayless, a phenom who averaged 20 points per game in his only college season. It is often mentioned that Laval was one of the hardest players to guard in Arizona practices, this is saying a lot because there was a lot of talent in Tuscon last year even if the team underachieved as a whole.
Laval played only 5 games in a Wildcat uniform before deciding he intended to transfer. The main reason for the transfer appeared to be the uncertainty of the coaching situation and the fact that Lute Olson didn’t coach the entire year. It’s hard to really take much from Laval’s stats last year considering that he never really got a chance for major playing time. In only 10 minutes per game Laval averaged 4 points, 1.6 boards, and 0.8 assists.
LLP didn’t have a lot of time to make his decision after deciding to leave Arizona because it was critical that he got enrolled in school before the Winter semester. The re-recruitment moved fast and it was clear that Beilein wanted LLP and LLP wanted Michigan. Laval and his family considered a couple trips including one to Wake Forest but decided to end his recruitment and stay close to home at Michigan.
“It wasn’t anything in particular about Arizona,” Lucas-Perry said. “It was just me not feeling comfortable there. I was just trying to find somewhere comfortable, where I can be myself.”
Laval and his family filed an appeal to the NCAA to regain his freshman eligibility (due to the coaching situation at Arizona) after only playing 5 games and it was granted. This makes LLP a redshirt freshman this year rather than a sophomore and means that he loses only a half year of eligibility rather than 1.5 years.
The Traveler
This summer Laval traveled to Taiwan to play with the Athletes in Action team in the Jones Cup. Playing in Taiwan was an opportunity for Laval to get some game action after sitting the second half of the 2008 season. The Athletes in Action/USA team took second in the tournament and Laval’s play was solid throughout. Laval’s averages were around 9.8 ppg (high of 22) on 40% (26% 3pt) shooting with 3.3 rebounds, .67 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.4 turnovers. He didn’t set the world on fire but for playing with a thrown together squad on the other side of the globe in Taiwan it’s not bad.
For plenty of video from the tournament go here (LLP is #7 on the AIA team).
The Wolverine
So how does Laval fit into this team? I think he gets his minutes at a combination of the 1 and 2 spots. This means he takes some combination of minutes from David Merritt, Kelvin Grady, Stuart Douglass, and Zack Novak.
Because he can play both the 1 and the 2 (which aren’t all that different in Beilein’s system offensively) I think he can play with any of those 4 guys on the court next to him. If he plays with one of the current point guards he’ll play up top in the 1-3-1, if he plays with one of the freshman he’ll run the baseline. I expect to see plenty of tinkering by Beilein over the next few weeks in an attempt to figure out where everyone is most comfortable offensively and defensively.
I don’t think it’ll be a situation where he takes all of Merritt’s minutes or anything like that, especially early on. I would expect Merritt to still get a few minutes every game. I also have seen a lot of people projecting that he will take CJ Lee’s minutes, I don’t see this right now because right now CJ backs up Manny almost exclusively. I don’t think Novak is ready to play the three and I would expect to see CJ still get those 5 minutes or so per game at the three.
Eventually I think Laval can be a double digit scorer and give Michigan that scoring threat at the guard position they are lacking. We have seen what the emergence of DeShawn Sims as a consistent threat down low has done to open up the offense and Laval is just going to open it up even more. He will be one of the only guys on the team comfortable driving in the lane and taking it to the hole but who can also stick the perimeter jumper.
From what I have heard about Laval’s game, it breaks down something like this:
More of a combo guard or shooting guard but with the size of a point guard.
Solid athlete and very strong which should allow him to be a very good rebounder for a guard. He is probably a little under his listed 6-3 height.
Very good shooter from mid-range and should also be solid from three point range.
Able to get in the lane to enable the mid range game.
Average passer and still learning the system.
There will undoubtedly be some small issues and adjustments that have to be made by adding a player to the rotation in the middle of the season but I think it will mostly be a non-factor. Laval has been practicing with the team since last winter so it’s not like he just showed up in Ann Arbor.
I think Beilein will work him a long slowly and build his minutes up. I don’t think he will start right away and hopefully games against Oakland, Florida Gulf Coast, and North Carolina Central will act as good warmups. The question of whether he starts is one we can ask on New Years Eve.
While I’m not ready to proclaim him the greatest point guard since Rumeal Robinson, Daniel Horton, and maybe even a point guard at all. I am definitely excited about adding Laval Lucas-Perry to a team that has already exceeded expectations over the first month and a half.
We’ll find out a lot more Saturday afternoon. Get tickets!
John Beilein is starting to feel better, this from SID Tom Wywrot: “Coach Beilein is feeling better and progressing well to regain his strength as U-M physicians continue to monitor his status on a day-to-day basis.”
The agenda for the regents meeting Thursday night has been released and there is no formal proposal for a practice facility. According to Snyder’s sources “it still remains a viable plan, and active meetings with coaches and others affiliated with the project are continuing.”
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For a guy that hasn’t even played a game in Ann Arbor, Laval Lucas-Perry is getting plenty of buzz. Tim McCormick predicted that Laval will be the best point guard at Michigan since Rumeal Robinson. Dick Vitale has called him one of the top 5 impact transfers in the country. Jeff Goodman calls him the 
/Articles/2000s/2008-2009/Features/lucas-perry-080108_300.jpg "The Traveler")
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