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• Last year’s off-season was the epitome of stability and optimism. I spent the summer blogging about which national reporter had Michigan in his preseason top 15 and how Michigan was hot on the heels on Casey Prather and Trey Zeigelr. This summer is the polar opposite — the news continues to revolve around a mass exodus of bodies out of Ann Arbor. One early entry. Three assistant coaching departures. One dismissal. Just four returning players who have played in a collegiate game.
• Each and every change was for a different reason. They can all be explained or justified on their own merits. However, all of these changes in one summer is an ominous harbinger.
• Many people, myself included, have thrown out the team chemistry meme when discussing last season’s struggles. The issues that have surfaced over the last three months certainly lend credence to those theories. It is painfully clear that no one in the program was on the same page.
• John Beilein would not boot LLP for no reason. Yes, Laval was going to be in his last year of eligibility this year. He was also on thinner ice than most, but from what I hear it’s not that this move was some sort of cold blooded unjustified hatchet job.  You can argue whether Laval would have been a contributor this year but removing him from the roster at the end of June doesn’t help anyone. Michigan wasn’t out of scholarships and can’t do anything with Laval’s vacated scholarship.
• Laval Lucas-Perry was not going to morph into a superstar over the summer. He was an inconsistent, streaky player. He’s had his moments (at Minnesota ’09 or at Penn State ’10) but he’s also been nearly invisible on the court for just about every other game.
• What a crazy, frustrating, career for Lucas-Perry. He committed to Arizona before transferring before he could get his feet wet after Lute Olson’s retirement. He waited patiently to start playing his first year in Ann Arbor amidst excitement from fans. A local guard who could shoot the rock was a great addition to a team that had already knocked off Duke. Then he shot the lights out for a month before going extremely cold. The next year and a half would be up and down. Struggles with confidence and inconsistency riddled Laval throughout his career and he could never seem to get it right.
• It becomes clearer by the day just how much of a rebuilding year we are bracing ourselves for. Douglass, Morris, Novak, and Vogrich are the only returning players with college experience. Blake McLimans is dealing with playing at a new weight. Jordan Morgan is still recovering from injury. Evan Smotrycz and Tim Hardaway were likely to play significant roles but this ups the ante.
• Like it or not, attrition has been a staple of John Beilein teams. The list of players that have left the program under Beilein now reads: Reed Baker, Kendrick Price, K’Len Morris, Jerrett Smith, Ekpe Udoh, Kelvin Grady, and Laval Lucas-Perry. In five years at West Virginia, 5 of the 17 players that Beilein recruited left the program.
• Michigan now has two additional scholarships to give in the class of 2011. Assuming they use both of them, they’d have two more in the class of 2012. The scholarship breakdown needs to be updated but you can find it here.

I have criticized Laval Lucas-Perry several times on this blog. Calling him tentative, critiquing his ball handling ability, and wondering if he truly feels comfortable in the offense. Luckily, whenever I am convinced that he has lost it he comes up with a huge performance, seemingly out of nowhere.

For some reason when the situation looks dire, there is no one whose hands I would rather have the ball in than Laval Lucas-Perry. His shot disappears at times and he might have a couple turnovers or silly fouls, but he manages to make big shots when Michigan needs them most.

None of Laval’s career performances have come at Crisler Arena. In fact, a majority of his double digit scoring games have come away from home including the best and most memorable.

• at Minnesota – 21 minutes, 19 points, 6-7 (3-4 3pt),
• at Indiana (‘09) – 34 minutes, 18 points, 5-12 (3-9 3pt), 3 rebounds, 3 assists
• vs. Oakland (at The Palace) – 14 points, 4-5 (4-6 3pt),
• vs. Creighton (at Disney Milk House) – 18 points, 5-11 ( 4-6 3pt)
• at Penn State (‘10) – 31 minutes, 16 points, 6-10 (4-8 3pt), 5 rebounds, 2 assists
• at Northwestern – 8 minutes, 10 points, 2-4 (1-2 3pt), 5-5 FT

Somehow, Laval’s best performances have come not only in games that Michigan needed to win but mostly in games they actually won. Michigan has won 4 true road games over the last two years under John Beilein. Laval Lucas-Perry is averaging 15.8 points per game and shooting 59% from the field in those four victories.

Michigan had eleven players start five or more games last year, everyone but Eric Puls got at least 5 starts.

This much starting lineup variability is not optimal and with a team that returns so many players, it is unlikely that we will see a similar situation next year. John Beilein’s best teams have been extremely consistent with the starting lineup. For example, in 2006 John Beilein’s Elite Eight team had the same starters in 32 of 33 games, the one exception was senior night and Pat Beilein got the start. His 2005 team had four consistent starters and his 2007 team started the same five players every game.

It is clear that Beilein would like to stick with one starting group and ride them as far as he can. There were circumstances last year, namely Laval Lucas-Perry’s eligibility situation, that made things a little more complicated but down the stretch Beilein found a group that worked: CJ Lee, Stu Douglass, Manny Harris, Zack Novak, and DeShawn Sims. That group started the final 10 games and went 6-4 including big wins over Purdue, Minnesota, and Clemson.

Despite Michigan being a team that returns so much of their production (points, minutes, etc.) there is a remarkable number of question marks with the starting lineup. The only player who is really locked into a position is Manny Harris. The rest are question marks: Who starts at the point guard? Does DeShawn Sims play the four or the five? Does Zack Novak stick in the frontcourt or move back to guard?

Over the next couple weeks, I’ll be going through each position and examining the candidates to play at each spot as well as some of the requirements of the position. Today, we’ll start with the point guard position.

Continue reading ‘Position by Position: Point Guard’

Previously: Stu Douglass (B-), Zack Novak (B)

The Good

• Three Point Shooting
  Laval teased us with his shooting stroke in the non-conference season — he came out blazing hot which caused Michigan fans to start drooling. Laval clearly can shoot the ball, despite his slump he shot 34.4%, the same percentage as Zack Novak and only worse than the departed point guards. Those who have seen him in practice claim that he is every bit the shooter we saw in December and I think we will see a very good three point shooter down the road.
• Penetration
  After appearing to be almost strictly a three point shooter early on, Laval started to show the ability to get in the lane. It seems like he can get there but he really struggles with what to do in the lane. If he gets fouled that’s good but he didn’t seem to be much of a finisher, nor did he seem to be much of a passer. The ability to get in the lane in itself is valuable for this team because no one else besides Manny Harris ever seemed to penetrate.
• Getting to the Line
  Laval posted a free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of 43.7% which was good for second best on the team. Considering there were only fourteen teams in the country that got to the free throw line less than Michigan this year, getting to the stripe should probably be encouraged. Using KenPom numbers (explained here) Laval drew 4 fouls per game, this would have been a respectable top 20 in the conference had Laval played enough minutes this year.

The Bad

• Confidence
  There is no denying that Laval came into a tough situation. He was thrown into the fire and expected to be the third scorer. Things came easy early on when he was playing against teams like North Carolina Central and Florida Gulf Coast but the Big Ten season was another animal. The sudden change put a dagger in Laval’s confidence which eventually forced Beilein to cut his losses and go with Stu almost exclusively down the stretch.
• Defense
  I was disappointed in Laval’s defense this year. In hindsight it was probably a foolish prediction but I expected Laval to be a good defender after reading about his strength as well as the fact that he played football. It didn’t really turn out that way. Laval consistently struggled on the defensive end of the court in conference play and I think this is one of the biggest reasons that Stu passed him on the depth chart.
• Learning the Offense
  By the end of the year it became clear that Laval just didn’t have the same understanding of the offense as some of the other guards. When there were open cutters he typically hesitated to make the pass and either didn’t make it or made it too late. Laval played huge minutes in the first half of the Michigan State game and I think that played a huge factor in Michigan’s inability to score. Different kids understand the offense at different speeds so I’m sure this is something that he will continue to work with Beilein on. The bottom line is that I don’t want Laval playing the “point guard” if he isn’t comfortable passing the ball in the flow of the offense.

The Future

I think Stu Douglass is a better candidate to get some minutes at the point guard next year because of his understanding of the system but I wouldn’t be shocked if Laval got a shot. This summer it will be important for Laval to continue to get comfortable as well as work on his defense and ball handling. Hitting a wide open jumper is one thing but doing it while not affecting the flow of the offense is another.

The beauty here is that this was only Laval’s freshman year because he won his appeal with the NCAA. I would feel a lot less comfortable with his role in the program if he had sophomore eligibility rather than freshman eligibility this year. The way this year played out was probably frustrating for Laval but I think it definitely will help him understand what he needs to get done this off-season.

Shining Moments

• vs. Oakland — 16 minutes, 14 points, 4-6 3pt
  Laval’s debut came with an unfair amount of expectations. Tim McCormick and yours truly had been hyping Laval’s addition to the lineup since long before the season even began. Laval didn’t do much to dampen the enthusiasm, he came out on fire and put on a show for the pro-Michigan crowd at the Palace. It was one of the best offensive performances of the year from Michigan and LLP spearheaded it with his early three point bombs.
• at Minnesota — 21 minutes, 19 points, 6-7 shooting (3-4 3pt)
  This was one of the most heroic and unexpected performances of the entire year. Despite making only 6 shots in the last 8 games, Laval stepped up with the season on the line. Laval not only found his stroke but he also found it at the best time. Michigan appeared to be dead in the water facing a double digit deficit on the road but a few three point shots from LLP and Michigan was back in business. In many ways the Minnesota game was a microcosm of the entire season and it certainly put a nice bookend of Laval’s freshman season.

Grading

Final Grade: C. Laval had to deal with unfair expectations from day 1 and his season is definitely a bit disappointing. After averaging 12.7 points in his first six games, Laval averaged only 4.6 points in his final twenty. If you take out his 19 point performance against Minnesota that number falls well under 4 points per game.

Still, Laval was instrumental in two of Michigan’s season saving comebacks (at Indiana & Minnesota) and showed enough of his potential to not be discouraged. His stroke is pure but after they started missing, his confidence plummeted and eventually started affecting the rest of his game. I am confident that he comes around next year but his final grade has to represent a mostly disappointing season.

Now that Kelvin Grady has decided to transfer it’s time to take another look at the roster and where everyone fits.

First, here’s one last word on Grady. There is no denying the fact that Kelvin was a great kid and a hard worker who gave his all to the program. Kelvin Grady was probably the most popular topic to debate in the comments over the second half of the season so I’m sure there are plenty of opinions out there but in the end he just wasn’t a good fit. His struggles on defense have been discussed at length but Kelvin also struggled in the half-court offensive set. The offense just didn’t seem to have the right flow or crispness that it did when it was running at its best. There is no denying the fact that Kelvin was a great ball handler, a solid shooter, and a human press break. In the end he didn’t have the length or grasp of Beilein’s system to be a contributor down the road. Hopefully he lands on his feet and makes the most out of his remaining eligibility at his next destination.

Roster

Here is a quick rundown of the roster by position. I broke people into four groups: Guards (1 and 2), Wings (3 and 4), Centers (5), and Hybrids (any combination of the first three) and the each group is roughly sorted from 1 to 2 and 3 to 4 (i.e. Darius Morris is more of a point guard than Matt Vogrich or Manny is a 3 while McLimans is a 4).

• Guards (1/2): Darius Morris, Stu Douglass, Laval Lucas-Perry, Matt Vogrich
• Wings (3/4): Manny Harris, Anthony Wright, Blake McLimans
• Centers (5): Ben Cronin, Jordan Morgan
• Hybrid: DeShawn Sims (5/4), Zack Novak (2-4), Zack Gibson (4/5), Eso Akunne (2/3)

The expectations for Darius Morris clearly jump up a notch, he’s going to have every opportunity to start from day 1 in the backcourt. The upside is that Darius was the gem of this year’s recruiting class and the one freshman out of the four that anyone would choose to throw into the fire. The downside is that learning Beilein’s offense is no cup of tea, Beilein has said himself that it’s almost impossible to predict which freshmen pick it up and which struggle. Regardless, Morris was brought in to be the point guard of this program and he is going to have a chance to prove himself.

Stu Douglass was the primary ball handled in spurts this year and I think he can shoulder some of the load. He is certainly not a traditional point guard but luckily this offense doesn’t rely on a point guard:

His team tried to run a conventional point-guard-driven offense, but was not having much success, so he listened to a suggestion from his uncle Tom Niland, a former coach at LeMoyne.

As Beilein explained: “He said: ‘Why don’t you play like we did back in the day, back in the ’40s and ’50s? Get two guards, put your two forwards in the corners, put in a high post and run some scissor-cuts off the post and spread the floor.’ ”

Stu is a good passer and this gives him a chance to get some more minutes per game even with the competition at the two (see more in Stu’s ‘report card’). LLP could also get a chance to run the point but I just don’t think he has a firm enough grasp on the offense at this point. Suddenly the backcourt doesn’t look quite as crowded but there are still plenty of options in Douglass, LLP, Vogrich, and Novak (who could play just about anywhere). It’s safe to say there will be plenty of competition this off season.

Recruiting

With Grady’s departure there are now three scholarships available for the class of 2010. This number could easily reach four or five depending on any more attrition — things like Manny Harris entering the NBA draft next year or Anthony Wright skipping his fifth year would each open another spot. The full year-by-year scholarship breakdown can be found here.

If Michigan doesn’t fill the remaining scholarship for the 2009 class by getting involved with Angus Brandt again (doubtful) or taking a transfer then I could see the open scholarship going to Eso Akunne for his freshman year. Beyond that it would most likely remain open for the class of 2010 and beyond.

The point guard position might become a bit of a higher priority in the class of 2010 but I think the top priorities remain at the wing and in the post. Ray McCallum would be a huge pick up but the odds look long there and would it be worth taking a less talented point guard other than McCallum when they are numerous options in the class of 2011? I guess we’ll have to judge by who Michigan is evaluating this spring and summer.