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Now that Kelvin Grady has decided to transfer it’s time to take another look at the roster and where everyone fits.

First, here’s one last word on Grady. There is no denying the fact that Kelvin was a great kid and a hard worker who gave his all to the program. Kelvin Grady was probably the most popular topic to debate in the comments over the second half of the season so I’m sure there are plenty of opinions out there but in the end he just wasn’t a good fit. His struggles on defense have been discussed at length but Kelvin also struggled in the half-court offensive set. The offense just didn’t seem to have the right flow or crispness that it did when it was running at its best. There is no denying the fact that Kelvin was a great ball handler, a solid shooter, and a human press break. In the end he didn’t have the length or grasp of Beilein’s system to be a contributor down the road. Hopefully he lands on his feet and makes the most out of his remaining eligibility at his next destination.

Roster

Here is a quick rundown of the roster by position. I broke people into four groups: Guards (1 and 2), Wings (3 and 4), Centers (5), and Hybrids (any combination of the first three) and the each group is roughly sorted from 1 to 2 and 3 to 4 (i.e. Darius Morris is more of a point guard than Matt Vogrich or Manny is a 3 while McLimans is a 4).

• Guards (1/2): Darius Morris, Stu Douglass, Laval Lucas-Perry, Matt Vogrich
• Wings (3/4): Manny Harris, Anthony Wright, Blake McLimans
• Centers (5): Ben Cronin, Jordan Morgan
• Hybrid: DeShawn Sims (5/4), Zack Novak (2-4), Zack Gibson (4/5), Eso Akunne (2/3)

The expectations for Darius Morris clearly jump up a notch, he’s going to have every opportunity to start from day 1 in the backcourt. The upside is that Darius was the gem of this year’s recruiting class and the one freshman out of the four that anyone would choose to throw into the fire. The downside is that learning Beilein’s offense is no cup of tea, Beilein has said himself that it’s almost impossible to predict which freshmen pick it up and which struggle. Regardless, Morris was brought in to be the point guard of this program and he is going to have a chance to prove himself.

Stu Douglass was the primary ball handled in spurts this year and I think he can shoulder some of the load. He is certainly not a traditional point guard but luckily this offense doesn’t rely on a point guard:

His team tried to run a conventional point-guard-driven offense, but was not having much success, so he listened to a suggestion from his uncle Tom Niland, a former coach at LeMoyne.

As Beilein explained: “He said: ‘Why don’t you play like we did back in the day, back in the ’40s and ’50s? Get two guards, put your two forwards in the corners, put in a high post and run some scissor-cuts off the post and spread the floor.’ ”

Stu is a good passer and this gives him a chance to get some more minutes per game even with the competition at the two (see more in Stu’s ‘report card’). LLP could also get a chance to run the point but I just don’t think he has a firm enough grasp on the offense at this point. Suddenly the backcourt doesn’t look quite as crowded but there are still plenty of options in Douglass, LLP, Vogrich, and Novak (who could play just about anywhere). It’s safe to say there will be plenty of competition this off season.

Recruiting

With Grady’s departure there are now three scholarships available for the class of 2010. This number could easily reach four or five depending on any more attrition — things like Manny Harris entering the NBA draft next year or Anthony Wright skipping his fifth year would each open another spot. The full year-by-year scholarship breakdown can be found here.

If Michigan doesn’t fill the remaining scholarship for the 2009 class by getting involved with Angus Brandt again (doubtful) or taking a transfer then I could see the open scholarship going to Eso Akunne for his freshman year. Beyond that it would most likely remain open for the class of 2010 and beyond.

The point guard position might become a bit of a higher priority in the class of 2010 but I think the top priorities remain at the wing and in the post. Ray McCallum would be a huge pick up but the odds look long there and would it be worth taking a less talented point guard other than McCallum when they are numerous options in the class of 2011? I guess we’ll have to judge by who Michigan is evaluating this spring and summer.

It’s been rumored for a couple weeks and now it’s official. Thanks to Tim from Varsity Blue for forwarding me the release (the full release is also posted on MGoBlue). Kelvin has not decided where he will head next.

I’ll have some reaction later but my immediate reaction is mixed. It’s good for the future in the sense that it opens a scholarship (scholarship breakdown) but I’m also disappointed for Kelvin and wish him the best.

“Point guard” depth will be interesting next year. This is technically a “two guard” offense and it doesn’t have a defined point guard position but I think Stu will definitely take on additional ball handling responsibilities next year (as I mentioned here).

“Kelvin has asked for his release from the program and we will grant that to him,” said Beilein. “Over the last two years, he has been a positive influence in helping build the foundation of our program. He is a wonderful young man on and off the floor. We wish him nothing but success in the future.”

“It’s been a wonderful experience both as a student and as a player here at the University of Michigan, but I feel I need a fresh start,” said Grady. “I love this university and want to thank the coaching staff, my teammates and everyone else who has supported me over the past two years. However, I have decided to explore other academic and playing opportunities at this time.”

Kelvin is on the bench because he isn’t playing good enough defense. I have mentioned this several times but I wanted to include some video to help demonstrate the point. Stu Douglass did a marvelous job on Craig Moore, one of the best shooters in the Big Ten, on Sunday. He fought over screens and didn’t let Moore get many good looks. When all was said and done Moore ended up 2 for 10 shooting with 6 points, zero assists, and three turnovers.

Here is a quick clip of Stu sticking to Moore, to get the full effect I suggest you go back and watch the entire game because this is what you will see for most of it. In this clip Stu fights over a couple screens and eventually Moore tries to penetrate but is met by Gibson’s help before throwing a wild pass that is intercepted by Harris.

Kelvin Grady on the other hand has struggled on the defensive end and hasn’t really been a factor on the offensive end either. Kelvin has scored in double digits once during the Big Ten season (11 points versus Northwestern) and is averaging 4.8 ppg, 2.2 apg, and 1.6 turnovers per game in conference play (I understand these numbers are knocked down a little bit by the last three conference games in which he didn’t really play. But the point remains and despite the concerns over Douglass’ ball handling, Grady actually has a higher turnover percentage in conference play (25% vs 20%).

Both times that Beilein has inserted Grady into the lineup late in the game to deal with pressure defense, Grady has immediately made a key mental error on the defensive end. I don’t have film of the Penn State game but I do have the clear example from the Northwestern game that almost cost Michigan the game.

Compare this video to Douglass and you can see the issue. Grady is trying to go under the screen which is a big mistake. I know for a fact that this is being repeated time and time again because I saw the reaction when he made the same mistake against Penn State. The whole coaching staff erupted and Grady was yanked.

Defense was a huge problem for this team early on in conference play and now it is the thing that is keeping them in games. It just so happens that the team has started playing dramatically better defense once CJ Lee was inserted into the lineup. If Kelvin Grady was a double digit scorer or a guy who averaged a ton of assists, I could see the argument here. But the fact is that he doesn’t give Michigan enough on offense to make up for his painful mistakes on the defensive end.

Now that’s how you win in the Big Ten.  Michigan didn’t look like they could handle Illinois on the defensive end early on but they tightened up the D in the second half and made the big plays down the stretch to pull off a W. It was a back and forth game and Michigan did just enough to pull off the win and avoid a damaging 0-2 start.

The story today for Michigan was balance. Michigan had 5 players in double figures and almost had a sixth in Kelvin Grady. In a game that featured 7 ties and 9 lead changes it was crucial for Michigan to have more than one option on the offensive end. Michigan isn’t going to be able to get by on the combo of Manny and DeShawn alone in the Big Ten and it’s encouraging to see complementary players stepping up.

Even in a balanced effort, Zack Gibson was the star of this one. Gibson was forced to step up when Novak went to the locker room in a bloody mess after colliding with Alex Legion. Gibson poured in 8 second half points including a triple and two dunks that had the crowd at their feet. Gibson brought energy to the game when Michigan needed something to get them over the edge.

Michigan was stellar offensively and played one of their best offensive games against a very solid Illinois defense. Michigan’s offensive efficiency (121.3) was the highest allowed by an Illinois defense that ranks in the top10 in defensive efficiency (avg 85.2). Michigan shot the ball very well with an eFG% of 59.4% and got to the line when they had to. They also held onto the ball with a turnover rate of 13.1% against a team that usually forces turnovers on almost 25% of possessions.

In a battle of offense versus defense it was Michigan’s defense that came through down the stretch. The defense held Illinois to 25 points in the second half after giving up 39 points in the first. They managed to shut down Calvin Brock in the second after a first half where it seemed like no one was guarding him. Zack Novak was no match for Mike Davis in the post but he fought hard and the bottom line is that Mike Davis can’t guard Zack Novak either. Illinois went with only one of the big guys for large stretches of the game so that they could try to guard Michigan. I was convinced at half time that this Michigan team wasn’t going to be able to guard anyone all year but I think slowly but surely they are learning how to get after it on defense.

The Big Ten is a dog fight right now and Michigan needed this one. There are 6 teams at 1-1 and preseason favorite Purdue is sitting at 9th. Michigan has the out of conference wins to boost their resume come March but they aren’t there yet, this is how games will be in the Big Ten night in and night out. Next up Michigan attempts to win a game at Assembly Hall and knock off the dreadful Hoosiers for the first time since 1995 before coming home for a tilt with Iowa. Michigan will be favored in both games and really needs to be sitting at 3-1 a week from now.

Player Bullets:

• Zack Gibson: Zack was feeling it on offense today and scored 10 points on 4-5 shooting and added a monster block in only 17 minutes. The best moment for me was when Gibson called for the ball and drove into the lane for a huge slam late in the game. The shock of the Crisler crowd was priceless. Michigan is a much better team when Gibson is playing at a high level offensively and hopefully this boosts his confidence.
• Zack Novak: Novak is a warrior, Zack hit shot after shot in the first half and it seems like he doesn’t miss. When you consider this is only his 14th game in college his confidence is pretty remarkable. Novak had 11points on 4-5 (3-4 3pt) shooting and added 3 boards and one assist. Novak is going to be giving up size in every game but he also forces defenses to guard him on the perimeter.
• Manny Harris: Manny isn’t going to be able to pick apart defenses like he could against the Florida Gulf Coasts of the world but he had a solid game in my opinion. Manny had 16 points, 6 boards, 5 assists, 5 turnovers, 1 block, and 3 huge steals. He made a lot of big plays on defense (but also fell asleep a couple times) including a huge block and a couple run out slams. Hopefully Manny can find his three point stroke (0-5) but he needs to start taking better threes rather than frustration threes.
• DeShawn Sims: Solid but unspectacular night for Peedi with 13 points and 9 boards. DeShawn hit some huge threes but didn’t get that involved in the paint. In the end though I’ll take a near double double every night from DeShawn especially when other guys are stepping up.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: 13 points on 4-1 (3-7 3pt) shooting and 5 assists with 1 turnover. Solid night for Laval in his first start. Laval is still adjusting but you can see that he is getting more and more comfortable. LLP also had a big block on defense and brings the size and toughness to the D that we really need in the backcourt.
• Kelvin Grady: Kelvin had 9 points on 3-6 shooting including the huge layup late in the game. Both Kelvin and LLP are starting to get in the lane more and it adds a new dimension to Michigan’s game.
• Stu Douglass: Stu’s minutes are decreasing quickly but he is a solid backup for Laval. Stu had 2 assists and no turnovers off the bench today and didn’t take a shot.
• Anthony Wright and Jevohn Shepherd: DNP. There just aren’t any more minutes at the power forward when Novak and Gibson play this well. Shep is more athletic than Novak but he just can’t score it like Zack. I don’t think we will see much Ant Wright the rest of the year.

It took Michigan until March 13th to win their 10th game last season. This year they have already reached the 10 win mark before the conference season has tipped off. Last year’s struggles against teams like Central Michigan and Harvard are nightmares of the past and now it appears that Michigan is poised to make a run at the NCAA tournament.

Tonight’s game felt like one that everyone knew we just had to get out of the way before Wednesday’s Big Ten opener. Michigan came out and got an early lead before falling asleep at the wheel. North Carolina Central gave them something to think about at halftime and Michigan responded as the lead ballooned to 20 points before falling asleep again. It’s frustrating to let teams hang around and I think this can come back and bite us but in the end a win is a win and North Carolina Central never really had a chance to win.

Manny Harris had another dominating performance with 29 points, 16 rebounds, 7 assists, and only 1 turnover. He definitely forced the issue a couple times early in the game but I loved to see him get in the lane in the second half. I think Manny had been settling for jumpers rather than taking it to the hole in recent games and Michigan is going to need his production at the free throw line in conference play.

The rotation still seems up in the air, especially at the power forward position. Shepherd started the game at the four but wasn’t very productive in the first half and Novak started the 2nd half. Jevohn did come in and give Michigan a boost with 2 put backs when Michigan was in a bit of a funk. Anthony Wright got a stint off the bench when Novak picked up his third foul but it seems pretty clear that he is getting cut out of the rotation. Novak, Gibson, Shepherd, and Wright are going to play the minutes at the four and Michigan really needs that second guy to step up and be a contributor.

Michigan had a poor day shooting the ball but held North Carolina Central to an even lower percentage. Rebounding was a wash. Michigan won the game by holding onto the ball and getting to the free throw line 25 more times than the Eagles. Michigan shot well below their season average of 80% at the stripe as well and only made 20 of their 30 attempts.

The final thing that’s frustrating about tonight’s game was that our RPI fell from the mid teens all the way to 37th. Our strength of schedule also took a huge fall down to 87. The Big Ten season will help the numbers but a game like this shows why it is so important to play teams that are going to fall in the 100-200 RPI range rather than the 300+.

Player Bullets:

• DeShawn Sims: Peedi tweaked his ankle in the first half and went to the locker room to get taped up. He came back and still played most of the game although he was definitely gimpy in half time warmups. Peedi had a solid game with 17 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists and 3 steals. Peedi had 6 turnovers though and a lot of them were pretty rough and led directly to NCC points or were blown easy opportunities.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: Laval is a 2 guard. I was always skeptical of all the talk that LLP would be a point guard on this team and thus far he has played strictly 2-guard and has zero assists through 3 games. LLP can definitely shoot it though and hit his first three triples today. I’m not sure what happened on his late botched layup on the dime from Manny, he must have been surprised to have the ball land in his lap.
• Stu Douglass: 17 minutes, 7 points on 3-8 shooting (1-5 3pt), 1 rebound, 1 assist, 0 turnovers. I was surprised to see that Stu took 8 shots but I think he looks more confident on his shot than he did when he went through a bit of a drought earlier this year.
• Zack Novak: Novak picked up some cheap fouls and was limited to only 17 minutes. If Zack is going to play the 4 he is going to need more than 1 rebound in a game though.
• Kelvin Grady: Kelvin shot 0-4 but this is becoming his team. He is getting a lot more minutes than Merritt and this time and is doing a great job holding onto the ball and finding open teammates. Kelvin had 4 assists and 0 turnovers in 27 minutes. Kelvin has only 9 turnovers in 12 games.
• Dave Merritt: Dave is seeing his minutes dwindle and was pulled less than a minute into the second half. Merritt is able to run the team but Grady is going to play more and more. I still don’t have a problem with Dave starting as long as Kelvin is playing more minutes.
• Zack Gibson: Zack needs to start hitting wide open three pointers. He had three of them today and didn’t hit any of them. If he can be a little more of an offensive threat it will help make up for his liabilities on the glass.
• Jevohn Shepherd: Shep was playing really well for a couple of games but has seemed to regress a bit. He doesn’t look as comfortable on his jump shot and at the stripe but he still brings some energy with athleticism on the glass.