UM Hoops.com

Aran Smith, president of NBADraft.net, agreed to answer a couple quick questions about Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims’s draft stock. NBADraft.net is one of the top draft websites on the internet and definitely worth a read if you need to get your NBA Draft fix. There are obviously a thousand opinions on how different players should be evaluated for the NBA and this certainly shouldn’t be taken as gospel, however I thought it would be good to bring in an opinion from someone who follows the draft religiously.

You recently dropped Manny Harris down your draft board from late first round 2010 to mid-second round in 2011. What were your reasons for this and how would you evaluate Manny’s draft stock at this point?

Harris is one of the best college shooting guard in the country, but scouts question his ability to hit outside shots. He’s not an overwhelming athlete and doesn’t do anything well enough to offset his subpar outside shooting. He’ll have a chance to get drafted, but scouts are no longer mentioning him as a potential first rounder.

If you were advising him, would you recommend that he leaves early? What can players gain from coming back for their senior year? How often does a player reach their potential and at a certain point “he is what he is”?

I am on the fence on him leaving this year. Harris could be reaching that point where leaving could be in his best interest. He has to weigh the benefits of earning a degree or whether he feels ready to take his game to the next level. We always get bombarded by the pro-college, don’t leave early sentiment, but there are plenty of players that actually wait too long and get exposed for not having the perceived upside they once possessed. I don’t think his game or stock would be damaged too severely by returning, but you never know. He is playing at a very high level and any dropoff from that could hurt.

DeShawn Sims has been putting up phenomenal statistics in conference play but he is a bit of a tweener going forward. How would you evaluate his draft stock?

Yeah I think he’s a European level power forward, and a tweener for the NBA. He has a good shot from outside for a big forward but I don’t see him having a role in the NBA.

What does each player need to improve on to raise their value?

Sims must gain more perimeter skills, although I think he’s best to focus on being a big man playing overseas. Harris needs to become a better outside shooter.

Top 5 NBA prospects in the Big Ten?

1. Evan Turner
2. Kalin Lucas
3. William Buford
4. JaJuan Johnson
5. Manny Harris

Favorite NBA prospect that no one is talking about?

Love the question. The “other” forward at Iowa State Marquis Gilstrap doesn’t get much ink, but he’s a nice prospect. I think he has a chance to make it in the NBA.

Previously: Point Guard, Novak

Everybody knows that Michigan was painfully undersized last year. They got abused inside by teams like Ohio State, Michigan State, and Minnesota. Their offensive and defensive rebounding numbers were near the bottom of the barrel in the Big Ten (8th and 9th respectively). Their average height of 76.1″ ranked 220nd in the NCAA and 10th in the Big Ten. In terms of Ken Pomeroy’s effective height statistic (a combination of block percentage, 2 pt% defense, eFG% defense, and adjusted defensive efficiency) only Indiana ranked lower in the conference.

Judging by Pomeroy’s rankings, center was actually not Michigan’s biggest concern size wise. Yes, DeShawn Sims is a bit small but he can get by at 6-foot-8. Point guard (Lee, Merritt, and Grady were all under 6 foot) and power forward (NOVAK) were Michigan’s biggest size concerns last year.

There are numerous solutions and combinations to try to alleviate the size issue. One of the most common suggestions is to move Sims back to the four position and throw Ben Cronin and Jordan Morgan in at the five. The most likely outcome is some sort of situational rotation – with Sims being the regular starter at the five and Gibson, Cronin, and Morgan providing situational playing time. (full positional breakdown after the jump)

Continue reading ‘Position by Position: Center’

Summer Hoops

College basketball players are essentially on their own over the summer because of the numerous NCAA laws regarding off-season contact between a player and coach. This creates an interesting scenario where coaches are praised for development of players but they get very little hands on time with them during the off season.

Beilein makes up for this in a number of ways, the most important of which is his regiment of drills and tests. Beilein gives every player a specific set of drills and scores to meet in each one. When they come back to practice in the fall, every player is expected to exceed their goals on testing day.

Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims are taking skill development into their own hands this summer when they plan to work out this summer with coach Shane Warwick. Warwick is a long time coach who runs his own clinics and also works several NBA camps. Adam Morrison, Devean George, and Mike Miller are just a few of the players that have worked out with Warwick over the past.

It definitely seems like a good opportunity for Manny and DeShawn to continue to step their game up to the next level. It’s also a chance to interact with a coach who has had plenty of hands on experience working with NBA players and knows what it takes in the NBA draft.

Scheduling

The athletic department officially announced next season’s UConn and Kansas games. As previously reported, the Kansas game is scheduled for December 18th and UConn will head to Crisler on Sunday January 17th. There is also a return trip on the slate for Kansas, who will head to Crisler on January 8th, 2011.

This pretty much wraps up the notable opponents on Michigan’s non-conference schedule. One more time for review here is what we have (last year’s RPI in parentheses):

• Nov 26-29th – Old Spice (Play 3): Alabama (108), Baylor (43), Creighton (46),  Florida State (18),  Iona (216), Marquette (30), Xavier (14)
• Dec. 2nd – vs. Boston College (68)
• Dec 9th – @ Utah (13)
• Dec 18th – @ Kansas (11)
• Jan 17th – vs. Connecticut (5)

That leaves five unannounced games and judging by the list that I have seen, all five will probably hurt Michigan’s strength of schedule as it appears that the last five games will all be against teams that are in the sub-200 RPI range.

The fact that Michigan played six games against teams with an RPI over 200 almost cost them last year and it’s definitely frustrating that we might be headed down the same road. The full schedule should be released later this summer after the Big Ten finalizes the conference schedule.

Kearney Feeling Blue?

As expected, Brandan Kearney made a visit to Michigan last week along with his god brother (and 2011 power forward recruit) Percy Gibson. The visit reportedly went very well and it’s created plenty of buzz. The buzz started Thursday morning when Sam Webb spoke about Kearney’s visit on WTKA. Webb stated that the visit went as well as anyone could have hoped for and he had no doubt that this was a Michigan-Michigan St. recruiting battle with Michigan in the lead. That’s good news in itself considered Kearney visited Ohio State days earlier.

The radio buzz was just the beginning – Webb followed up his on air report with two huge post-visit articles. The first was an interview with Kearney’s dad ($) and the second was with Brandan himself ($). The quotes in there are good enough to make any Michigan fan excited. This is definitely one to keep your eyes on, despite the fact that Kearney is only a rising junior – sophomores can officially be offered on June 15th.

Kearney is currently trying out for the Team USA 16-U team. Rivals was on hand ($) but didn’t have anything specific to say about Brandan’s play. You can find video from the tryouts here, the team will be cut from 19 to 12 tonight.

Other Notes & Links

• IL Prep Bullseye reports that Michigan continues to focus on Alex Dragicevich as well as Alex Rossi and Duje Dukan. Rossi is a 6-foot-5 shooting guard from New Trier and Dukan is a 6-foot-7 wing from Deerfield HS.
• John Beilein ran his Father/Son camp over the weekend. The camp season is just getting underway. The Beilein Shootout (one day team camp) is scheduled for June 13th and  the Elite Camp (25-26) and overnight team camp (27-28) are scheduled later in June. These camps are huge for recruiting, they not only give Michigan a chance to host a number of big time prospects they also provide a stage for the next Stu Douglass to jump onto the scene.
• VIDEO: Zeigler vs. Anderson at Showdown in the Valley ($)
  Some more Zeigler video, he is very smooth offensively.
• Q&A with CJ Lee
  Odd circumstances for an interview, but a nice quick read.

Previously: Stu Douglass (B-), Zack Novak (B), Laval Lucas-Perry (C), Manny Harris (A)

The Good

• Scoring
  DeShawn showed us that he really is the scorer that he was recruited to be. His freshman year was wrecked by family tragedy and his sophomore year saw him live almost exclusively on the perimeter. This year he was forced to the paint — more so  by necessity than choice. Luckily, DeShawn was up to the challenge. He attempted 60 less three pointers this year, but managed to lead the Big Ten in field goals made while making 224 of his 444 attempts (50.5%, 53.3 eFG%).
• Rebounding
  Because he was forced to play down low, it was crucial that Sims attack the glass. Sims averaged 6.8 rpg (5th in conference) and was tied with Manny Harris for the leading rebounder on the team. He struggled at times in conference play on the glass and his average steadily declined but that was mostly a product of dealing with better rebounding teams in the Big Ten.
• Improvement
  Peedi improved in just about every facet of the game. This should be expected I suppose but as we saw under Tommy Amaker, improvement should never be taken for granted. Even beyond the numbers, Sims looks more confident within the offense and he continues to find his niche.

The Bad

• Consistency
  Sims eliminated the Georgetown-esque 1 point performances that we saw in his sophomore year but he still struggled to bring a consistent effort night in and night out. Part of the problem is that his play was so spectacular at times  that you wonder why he wasn’t able to do it every time out.
• Drifting
  All too often Sims would drift to the perimeter instead of focusing his offense in the interior. It is critical that Sims plays inside out. He has to start inside where he can build his confidence before he starts launching longer jumpers.

Shining Moments

• vs. Duke – 28 points (10-16 shooting), 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal
  The Duke game was the defining moment of Michigan’s season and DeShawn Sims was the star. DeShawn scored the ball inside and out while controlling the glass despite being a non-factor in the first Duke/Michigan match-up that took place only a couple weeks earlier.
• vs. Purdue - 29 points (13-16 shooting), 5 rebounds
  Another glimpse of just how dominant DeShawn can be. He took the ball right at JaJuan Johnson, who was eventually forced to the bench with foul trouble, and scored inside all night long. This one was an absolute must-win for Michigan’s tournament chances and DeShawn came to play.
• vs. Iowa – 27 points (12-16 shooting), 2 rebounds, 3 steals
  DeShawn Sims single handily punched Michigan’s NCAA tournament ticket. Michigan went to Sims early and often and just sat back and watched as he made his first eight shots from the field and simply couldn’t be stopped.

The Future

DeShawn has played a dramatically different role in each of his three seasons at Michigan. His freshman year he was a seldom used back-up power forward. His sophomore year he played the “four” in Beilein’s offense which saw him floating around on the perimeter and launching three point shots. And finally, this year he played the “five” where he was almost exclusively an interior player.

The question is where does he go next year? There is a much larger stable of interior players next year but I’m not sure any of them have the ability to score in the post the way DeShawn does. I think we will most likely see a mix of DeShawn at the four and five. Against bigger lineups we will see him play the four along side someone like Ben Cronin while against smaller lineups we will see him down low in hopes that he can exploit a mis-match.

Final Grade: A

DeShawn deserves nothing but an ‘A’. Politics may have forced him off of the All-conference first team, but statistically he had a spectacular season. He was a top five scorer and rebounder and posted an effective field goal percentage of 53.3%. Not to mention the fact that he did all of this while playing down low in arguably the most physical conference in the nation at only 6-foot-8.

Did he have some disappointing performances? Definitely, but over the course of a season, who doesn’t? The improvement that he made in between each of his three years at Michigan has been remarkable. If he can make similar strides before his senior year we should be expecting another special year.

As a casual Pistons fan, it has been painful to watch the franchise spiral from a model of chemistry and hard work to a team that doesn’t even look interested in the playoffs. I was reading a post by Matt Watson over at Detroit Bad Boys that hit the nail on the head in regards to the Pistons. There just isn’t anyone on the Pistons that you would call a leader.

What’s even more frustrating than the lack of on-court production is the apparent lack of fire. For all the talk about how the Celtics would have been a better matchup, Kevin Garnett actually seems to instill more fire and confidence in his teammates than any of Detroit’s starters — and he’s yet to even don a uniform.

The scary part for me is wondering how this will apply to next year’s Michigan team. Dave Merritt’s pre-game speeches have been well documented and CJ Lee’s hustle and grit arguably saved the season. Both Merritt and Lee had been through thick and thin and were mature enough to lead this team. Their styles complemented each other perfectly and their leadership warranted their combined 30 minutes per game.

For those of you that want proof in the difference that CJ Lee made. Michigan’s efficiency margin after CJ Lee’s first start at point guard took a pretty noticeable jump. There was also a noticeable jump in eFG%, both the offensive and defensive numbers improved by over 6%.

                                      Opp.
                      Pace    PPP     PPP      EM
With CJ Lee           60.1    1.05    1.02   +0.03
Without CJ Lee (Conf) 61.2    0.99    1.06   -0.07

Next year there is no pair of fifth year seniors and it is a mystery who will step up and lead this team. Common wisdom would point toward DeShawn Sims or Manny Harris. DeShawn is a senior and the second leading returning scorer on the team. Manny is unquestionably the most complete and best player on the team. But at second glance it’s tough to imagine either Harris or Sims taking on a similar role to Lee or Merritt. After all, Sims admits to having mental lapses and Harris was not without his own issues last year.

Now I’m not saying these two don’t have it in them. Go back and watch the Purdue game again. Manny was vocal and passionate, he pushed Sims and Sims responded. There are other instances of the two players putting the team on their back but that was the best performance from a leadership standpoint that I have seen from Manny. The duo has to take the next step. Harris cannot afford performances like his games at Penn State and Iowa. Likewise Sims needs to avoid drifting and dozing off against teams like Clemson or Ohio State.

Sims and Harris are the assumed candidates but the leader of a team doesn’t always have to come from the top. Looking up the roster for next year, I’m not particularly sold on anyone else. Zack Novak is probably the most competitive kid on the team but he’s also only a sophomore. Zack Gibson will be a redshirt senior next year but his play has been underwhelming over the last two years. Stu Douglass provides a bit of moxie with the ball in his hand but again he is young and not very vocal. Anthony Wright has experience but I think he falls closer to an easy-going guy than a motivator or leader.

I am not trying to say that Michigan is destined to a Piston-esque season next year. In fact, I’m quite confident that this team will improve by leaps and bounds next year. There will definitely be a transition period during the first month or so of the season. The team returns nearly everyone statistically but removing the leadership from a team is akin to pulling the wrong block in Jenga.

The encouraging part to me is that this happens all the time in college basketball. Michigan State will go through the same thing with the loss of Travis Walton and that is just one of many schools that will experience a similar situation. In college basketball more than the professional game, players take on the identity of their coach. These coaches’ ability to create leaders is what separates the pretenders from the contenders and is essentially what differentiated this season from the last decade. I am confident that Beilein understands this because one of the dimensions he stresses the most is team chemistry.