UM Hoops.com

As a casual Pistons fan, it has been painful to watch the franchise spiral from a model of chemistry and hard work to a team that doesn’t even look interested in the playoffs. I was reading a post by Matt Watson over at Detroit Bad Boys that hit the nail on the head in regards to the Pistons. There just isn’t anyone on the Pistons that you would call a leader.

What’s even more frustrating than the lack of on-court production is the apparent lack of fire. For all the talk about how the Celtics would have been a better matchup, Kevin Garnett actually seems to instill more fire and confidence in his teammates than any of Detroit’s starters — and he’s yet to even don a uniform.

The scary part for me is wondering how this will apply to next year’s Michigan team. Dave Merritt’s pre-game speeches have been well documented and CJ Lee’s hustle and grit arguably saved the season. Both Merritt and Lee had been through thick and thin and were mature enough to lead this team. Their styles complemented each other perfectly and their leadership warranted their combined 30 minutes per game.

For those of you that want proof in the difference that CJ Lee made. Michigan’s efficiency margin after CJ Lee’s first start at point guard took a pretty noticeable jump. There was also a noticeable jump in eFG%, both the offensive and defensive numbers improved by over 6%.

                                      Opp.
                      Pace    PPP     PPP      EM
With CJ Lee           60.1    1.05    1.02   +0.03
Without CJ Lee (Conf) 61.2    0.99    1.06   -0.07

Next year there is no pair of fifth year seniors and it is a mystery who will step up and lead this team. Common wisdom would point toward DeShawn Sims or Manny Harris. DeShawn is a senior and the second leading returning scorer on the team. Manny is unquestionably the most complete and best player on the team. But at second glance it’s tough to imagine either Harris or Sims taking on a similar role to Lee or Merritt. After all, Sims admits to having mental lapses and Harris was not without his own issues last year.

Now I’m not saying these two don’t have it in them. Go back and watch the Purdue game again. Manny was vocal and passionate, he pushed Sims and Sims responded. There are other instances of the two players putting the team on their back but that was the best performance from a leadership standpoint that I have seen from Manny. The duo has to take the next step. Harris cannot afford performances like his games at Penn State and Iowa. Likewise Sims needs to avoid drifting and dozing off against teams like Clemson or Ohio State.

Sims and Harris are the assumed candidates but the leader of a team doesn’t always have to come from the top. Looking up the roster for next year, I’m not particularly sold on anyone else. Zack Novak is probably the most competitive kid on the team but he’s also only a sophomore. Zack Gibson will be a redshirt senior next year but his play has been underwhelming over the last two years. Stu Douglass provides a bit of moxie with the ball in his hand but again he is young and not very vocal. Anthony Wright has experience but I think he falls closer to an easy-going guy than a motivator or leader.

I am not trying to say that Michigan is destined to a Piston-esque season next year. In fact, I’m quite confident that this team will improve by leaps and bounds next year. There will definitely be a transition period during the first month or so of the season. The team returns nearly everyone statistically but removing the leadership from a team is akin to pulling the wrong block in Jenga.

The encouraging part to me is that this happens all the time in college basketball. Michigan State will go through the same thing with the loss of Travis Walton and that is just one of many schools that will experience a similar situation. In college basketball more than the professional game, players take on the identity of their coach. These coaches’ ability to create leaders is what separates the pretenders from the contenders and is essentially what differentiated this season from the last decade. I am confident that Beilein understands this because one of the dimensions he stresses the most is team chemistry.

Kelvin is on the bench because he isn’t playing good enough defense. I have mentioned this several times but I wanted to include some video to help demonstrate the point. Stu Douglass did a marvelous job on Craig Moore, one of the best shooters in the Big Ten, on Sunday. He fought over screens and didn’t let Moore get many good looks. When all was said and done Moore ended up 2 for 10 shooting with 6 points, zero assists, and three turnovers.

Here is a quick clip of Stu sticking to Moore, to get the full effect I suggest you go back and watch the entire game because this is what you will see for most of it. In this clip Stu fights over a couple screens and eventually Moore tries to penetrate but is met by Gibson’s help before throwing a wild pass that is intercepted by Harris.

Kelvin Grady on the other hand has struggled on the defensive end and hasn’t really been a factor on the offensive end either. Kelvin has scored in double digits once during the Big Ten season (11 points versus Northwestern) and is averaging 4.8 ppg, 2.2 apg, and 1.6 turnovers per game in conference play (I understand these numbers are knocked down a little bit by the last three conference games in which he didn’t really play. But the point remains and despite the concerns over Douglass’ ball handling, Grady actually has a higher turnover percentage in conference play (25% vs 20%).

Both times that Beilein has inserted Grady into the lineup late in the game to deal with pressure defense, Grady has immediately made a key mental error on the defensive end. I don’t have film of the Penn State game but I do have the clear example from the Northwestern game that almost cost Michigan the game.

Compare this video to Douglass and you can see the issue. Grady is trying to go under the screen which is a big mistake. I know for a fact that this is being repeated time and time again because I saw the reaction when he made the same mistake against Penn State. The whole coaching staff erupted and Grady was yanked.

Defense was a huge problem for this team early on in conference play and now it is the thing that is keeping them in games. It just so happens that the team has started playing dramatically better defense once CJ Lee was inserted into the lineup. If Kelvin Grady was a double digit scorer or a guy who averaged a ton of assists, I could see the argument here. But the fact is that he doesn’t give Michigan enough on offense to make up for his painful mistakes on the defensive end.

After a rough first 9 minutes, Michigan regrouped and took care of business. This one was a tale of two halves, Eastern got out to an early 18-11 lead and Manny Harris went to the bench with 2 fouls when the Michigan “role players” stepped up. Everyone is calling for David Merrit and CJ Lee’s minutes to go to Laval Lucas-Perry but they at least gave Beilein something to think about today.

A couple of notes about the teams performance in general. The turnover percentage was phenomenal, Michigan turned it over on only 7.1% (5 out of 70) of their possessions and had 24 assists. Michigan also shot the ball very well, 52.2% (48.5% 3pt) for an eFG% of 64.2%. This is starting to look a lot more like patented “Beilein ball”, hold onto the ball and make 16 threes (school record!).

The only glaring flaw was the poor rebounding (also typical of Beilein ball). Eastern Michigan rebounded 37.2% of their missed shots and Michigan didn’t really get a body on anyone to box out all night. Jerry Dunn actually went with man to man almost exclusively in the 2nd half and scrapped the 1-3-1. I would assume this had to do with Eastern getting some easy looks coupled with the poor rebounding and going with something he’s more comfortable with.

Player Bullets:

• Dave Merritt: Dave had a big first half and really stepped up when Michigan was down early. In the first half he made both of his three point attempts and also had 3 rebounds. Merritt finished the game with 8 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and a steal.
• CJ Lee: CJ and Dave showed exactly why they are chosen as captains. CJ also hit a pair of three pointers in the first half when Manny went to the bench and Michigan was down. CJ isn’t the best shooter but those were just huge shots and he was ready when he was called on.
• Manny Harris: Manny decided to put on a clinic in the second half. Manny was held to 2 points (and 3 assists) in 8 minutes in the first half after picking up his 2nd foul. In the second half he decided to show off his three point shooting, including a stretch where he hit two threes in a row and scored 11 straight Michigan points. Manny finished the game with 22 points in 23 minutes on 8-16 (4-7 3pt) shooting, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, 1 TO.
• Jevohn Shepherd: Shepherd is another guy who had a huge first half. In the first half Shep was 6-7 for 13 points. He didn’t get going in the second half but he wasn’t afraid to make plays in the first. Shep’s improvement is clear and he has established himself as the starting 4 on this team. Overall it just seems like the game has slowed down for Jevohn, as someone that has been a fan since he was a recruit I’m glad to see him playing well.
• Kelvin Grady: Yet another guard who had a huge first half. Kelvin was letting them rain from long range with 3 three pointers in the first half. Kelvin added a layup in the second and finished with 11 points on 4-5 (3-4) shooting and had 3 assists and no turnovers. He looks far more comfortable and confident on the court and that’s going to pay dividends down the road.
• DeShawn Sims: DeShawn looked to be on cruise control today. He scored 18 points but was only 7-17 (1-5 3pt) and really seemed to be settling for decent shots instead of getting inside.
• Zack Gibson: Scored some points in garbage time but is really struggling with his confidence. Michigan is going to need him this year so hopefully he can get it together.
• Eric Puls: He’s got the Beilein stroke! Great to see him get in there and make a three late.
• Ben Cronin: Cronin not getting in the game pretty much seals his fate as a redshirt. I noticed Pat Beilein talking to Ben for a while during the last time out and it looked like he was explaining the situation to him. I also got an email that Beilein mentioned Cronin would redshirt at an alumni function before the Maryland game.
• Others: Quiet day for the freshman, it was good to see Stu make a three but Novak never really got going. Anthony Wright didn’t get many minutes but didn’t force things either.

Overall Michigan took care of business and got the easy win. It was a little sloppy early but I think not having Beilein on the bench could be part of that. Hard to complain about a 31 point win no matter who it’s against. Hopefully Beilein can rest up and is ready to go next Saturday’s game at the Palace which should be the debut of Laval Lucas-Perry.

• UM Basketball ‘08-09: Get Pumped! (No, seriously…be excited.)
  There are other people blogging about Michigan basketball!
• Lee pushes teammates to the polls
  Hopefully he leads us to some wins too.
• Aussie Angus Brandt Talks Recruiting
• John Beilein – Play The Right Way
  “U of M takes individual instruction to a different level.”

Manny Harris: One on One (HT: MichiganSportsCenter)

I’m ready for the season tomorrow. What are you are watching for in Thursday’s exhibition? (Which conveniently will be streamed on BigTenNetwork.com)

There are plenty of options at the point guard this year but probably no real playmakers. The point guards on the roster (alphabetical):

• Kelvin Grady – 5′11″ Soph.
• Laval Lucas-Perry – 6′3″ RS Fr. (combo guard, eligible at midseason)
• CJ Lee – 6′0″ 5th Yr Sr
• Dave Merritt – 5′10″ 5th Yr Sr

It’s hard to pick a starter at this point, Kelvin and CJ both got  substantial playing time throughout last year, both starting for stretches. Merritt came on strong at the end of the year (who could forget his effort in last year’s Ohio State game). Here is a side by side comparison of Kelvin, CJ, and Merritt’s stats from last year. Kelvin started 25 games to CJ’s 7.  Here are the quick hitters from their stats last year:

For right now I’m going to focus on the bulk of the non-conference season before Laval Lucas-Perry is eligible. At this point I have trouble handicapping the race at starting point guard. I wouldn’t be shocked if any one of CJ, Kelvin, or Dave trotted out next Thursday as the starting point guard. This might sound like crazy talk to some people who just expect Kelvin to be the guy but I don’t expect Kelvin to be the starter early on.

The popular choice to start at point guard from the fans perspective is Kelvin Grady, he is the scholarship point guard and everyone expects him to be the answer. Thus far he just hasn’t shown that he can separate himself from the pack and be the guy. Kelvin Grady clearly has the most potential and best athleticism of the bunch, he even has the best shooting numbers and a comparable assist to turnover ratio to CJ Lee. The fact remains that all through last year he just couldn’t eliminate the poor mistakes. Whether it be forcing passes, shots, or just dumb turnovers, Beilein isn’t going to accept that at the point guard spot on this team.

CJ Lee appears to be the leader of the group, someone who isn’t afraid to talk on the court and help out his teammates. CJ plays smart and takes relatively good care of the ball but he just isn’t a threat to score like Kelvin is. CJ shot only 33% from the field to Kelvin’s 40%. Kelvin was by no means a consistent player but when he was on he could hit the three and score the ball better than CJ. Throughout most of last year CJ’s jump shot was not a thing of beauty.

Dave Merritt is a guy who doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses or glowing strengths. I think CJ is a better defender than Merritt while Kelvin is better at scoring the ball but Dave is just the safe play out of the group. Merritt isn’t going to force passes or shots, but he isn’t going to make any plays on his own either. I worry about Merritt against tight ball pressure but he didn’t have that high of turnover numbers so maybe this is just in my imagination.

Beilein is in a jam because Kelvin is the younger guy with the most potential and 2 more years ahead of him. But with the arrival of Darius Morris next year you have to to wonder if Kelvin will ever be the starting point guard for this team. If Kelvin can’t beat out CJ and Dave this then you have to think that Darius Morris would be the starting point guard for this team next year (he might be anyways).

Because of Kelvin’s higher ceiling (athletically and offensively) it is critical for this team for Kelvin can elevate his game and take it to the next level. Beilein has said that he only wants to go eight or nine men deep and if he does it appears someone at the point guard spot is going to be left behind.

I think that CJ Lee is your early season starter but the minutes will break down pretty evenly (with some coming at the two). Beilein will probably use CJ, Dave, and Kelvin situationally. CJ is the better defender, Kelvin the better shooter, and Merritt is the most transparent.

I frown about putting two 6 foot and under guys on the court at the same time but with Manny’s move to the wing, lack of depth at the two-guard, and Laval sitting out until December 20th I’d assume it will have to happen in the non-conference season. None of the three are good enough scorers to be a traditional two-guard but both guard spots play similar roles in Beilein’s offense.

I’ll look more at the two guard in my next position breakdown and more about Laval Lucas-Perry’s addition to the roster in December.