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Michigan fought until the end but Blake Griffin and Oklahoma were just too much. Michigan hung tough in the first half despite Manny Harris picking up his second foul early and sitting for the last fifteen minutes. Michigan was able to stay close mostly thanks to an unlikely hero, Anthony Wright. Wright had 12 points in the first half and Michigan was only down one at the break. Oklahoma managed to pull ahead in the second half and hold Michigan off despite numerous comeback attempts.

Looking at the four factors the biggest difference won’t be surprising to anyone that watched the game: free throws. Oklahoma got to the line and Michigan did not. There were only four team fouls called on Oklahoma in the first 19 minutes and 56 seconds of the second half compared to 17 called on Michigan. It seemed like every 50-50 call went Oklahoma’s way but you just have to play the game. Michigan did an admirable job on the offensive glass despite Oklahoma’s size advantage. But in the end Michigan turned the ball over a little too much and just didn’t make quite enough shots from three point range. There was a stretch at the start of the second half when Michigan just couldn’t buy a three point basket. Oklahoma didn’t shoot a very high percentage from long range but they made just enough big three pointers to keep Michigan at arms length.

There is no denying that Michigan went down fighting despite being physically overmatched. They battled in the first half and even when Oklahoma started to pull away in the second half they never quit. The late run spear headed by CJ Lee was symbolic of the team’s never die attitude this whole season. There were many times that fans and media wrote this team off, claiming they had no shot at the NCAA tournament, but they always proved them wrong.

I’m not going to go through a whole “player bullets” but I wanted to mention a couple people.

• Anthony Wright played the best game of his life and it was great to see. Hopefully he can build off this in the off season.
• Zack Gibson also strung together a couple very solid games down the stretch, bringing more hustle than we have seen before.
• The freshmen just couldn’t find their range today, if just one of the three were hitting their shots it would have been huge. Stu and Zack had great years but they just couldn’t find their stroke, 3 of 15 with 4 turnovers combined.
• CJ, Dave, and Jevohn went out fighting and it will be sad to see them go. Those kids certainly are lacking in talent but their heart is what carried this team down the stretch.
• Also, Mark Snyder is reporting that Manny and DeShawn plan to stay.

The countdown until November begins. I’ll have plenty more of the next couple days including some more reaction on the season.

And One. (Photo Credit: Detroit News, David Guralnick)

Michigan looked rattled and intimidated early on; they struggled with the full court press and shot a couple air balls. Luckily Manny Harris shouldered the load and carried Michigan with 14 first half points. Manny managed to settle Michigan down and he got a little help in the way of the three ball. The final product: a slim three point first half lead.

Michigan came out to play in the second half with a purpose, they pushed their lead to fourteen points in the first 4 minutes of the second half. Clemson lost Terrence Oglesby (who had a forgettable night) to an ejection and it took them a while to regroup. For Michigan fans, the clock just couldn’t tick fast enough. Unfortunately Michigan got cold down the stretch and only scored three points in the final five minutes.

Clemson made it a game in a hurry with three straight triples but Michigan just managed to hold on. Yet again it was Manny who saved the day, he had the play of the game when he drove through a crowd for a three point play with only 37 seconds remaining. Then with a 2 point lead and under 20 seconds left, Zack Novak split a pair of free throws giving Clemson a chance. KC Rivers desperation heave missed and Michigan escaped.

In the preview I said it would come down to turnovers. Michigan did a pretty good job holding onto the ball for the middle 30 minutes or so but the first and last five minutes were certainly scary. The end result was a 22.6% turnover rate, a shade under what Clemson forces per game. Clemson stayed in the game on rebounding alone. They rebounded a staggering 46.2% of their misses and 71.9% of Michigan’s misses.

Michigan won this game with their defense. Clemson is a dynamic offensive team that ranks in top 15 in offensive efficiency . Michigan silenced them tonight, holding them to .952 points per possession which is well below their season average of 1.17 ppp. Clemson’s starting guards combined to shoot only 5 of 27 from the field. Their bigs did better, Booker and Sykes combined for 26 points on 11 of 15 shooting inside, but they couldn’t do it all. Maybe there is something to be said about Big Ten defense after all. Michigan played their tempo (62 possessions) and held one of those vaunted ACC offenses to only 59 points.

Michigan had a game plan and they executed it very well. I give all the credit in the world to John Beilein who continues to prove that he is a one of the best NCAA tournament coaches in the country. There is no doubt that he had the team prepared to play today. We just won an NCAA tournament game with three starters who most people probably didn’t expect to even be contributors.

It’s on to the second round (5:50 PM approx. tip off). Oklahoma is a load but there is always a chance, especially with John Beilein at the helm.  I’ll have the preview tomorrow but here is what’s on my mind right now. The good, Clemson dominated the boards just about as well as anyone can and got tons of easy points inside but Michigan still won. The bad, Michigan is playing on short rest.

I know the Michigan fans who were in Kansas City with me tonight will agree, it definitely feels great to be a part of March Madness.

Player Bullets:

• Manny Harris: Manny wasn’t good tonight, he was great: 23 points on 7 of 15 (3-6 3pt) shooting with seven rebounds and six assists. Manny was responsible for 13 of Michigan’s 20 made field goals on the night and he also made the biggest plays. Simple a spectacular effort, hopefully the national media gives him the credit he deserves.
• DeShawn Sims: This was one of those games where Peedi “lacked focus”. He looked flustered early on by Clemson’s physical play and he also airballed a couple shots. DeShawn finished the game with 9 points on 4 of 12 shooting with only three rebounds. He’s going to need to play better Saturday against the Griffin brothers. Hopefully he hits his first shot.
• Zack Novak: Zack gave us all a heart attack but at least he made the second. Novak hit two huge three pointers when Michigan was playing well and he also got robbed on another one that was half way down. Novak was severely outmatched inside but he fought hard. A typical game for Zack statistically: 7 points, 4 boards, and four assists.
• Zack Gibson: His numbers aren’t necessarily impressive (2 points, 4 rebounds, and a block) but he gave Michigan quality minutes. He had at least two tip outs that ended up in offensive rebounds and he hustled as hard as I have seen him all year. In a game where DeShawn Sims really struggled, Gibson was definitely the unsung hero.
• Stu Douglass: Stu didn’t really shoot it well but he got to the line and managed 12 points. It was also great to see him get the steal and fastbreak dunk. I also think Stu is by far the best at feeding the post on this team.
• Anthony Wright: Ant knocked down a three in the first half and provided some quality minutes when Michigan neeeded some size. Three points and four rebounds in only 10 minutes is not bad for a guy that many had written off this year.
• Dave Merritt: 15 minutes and only one turnover but not much else statistically. The job he did on KC Rivers at the end of the game makes up for anything else he could have done all day.
• CJ Lee: CJ knocked down 2 three pointers and dished out three assists but he also had four turnovers. He struggled with the press at times but Grady didn’t look much better out there. Clemson has one of the best full court presses in the country so a few turnovers should be expected. You have to give credit to CJ, Merritt, Grady, Stu, and LLP for the defensive job they did on Clemson’s guards for the entire forty minutes.
• Kelvin Grady and LLP: Only 11 minutes between the two and not much production. Grady didn’t look like a starting point guard but he at least got his shot. Laval didn’t look bad but he wasn’t hitting either.

Where’s Manny?

Basics:
Who: Michigan (20-13) vs. Clemson (23-8)
Where: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
When: Thursday, March 19th, 7:10 PM
TV: CBS
Spread: Clemson by 5
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, Clemson KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue

Throw out all the celebrations, it’s time to play ball. This is the big stage and there is really no telling how Michigan will react. I could see them playing their best or worst game of the year or anything in between — that’s part of the beauty of this tournament.

While I’m sure there are a couple believers, most people firmly expect Clemson to win this game, not just President Obama. As Brian points out they have good reason to side with Clemson because statistically they appear to be the better team.

I’ve already looked at Clemson a little bit here and here including a look at Clemson’s press, the head coaches, Clemson’s tendency to collapse down the stretch, and personnel. So what does that leave for the preview? Let’s start with the strengths and weaknesses.

I am a firm believer that this game is going to come down to turnovers. Michigan doesn’t turn the ball over and Clemson forces turnovers as well as anyone in the country, who’s going to break? Beyond the turnovers here is a look at some other factors:

Clemson’s Strengths

• Offensive Rebounding. Clemson rebounds 38.8% of their misses (22nd) while Michigan only rebounds 67% of their opponents’ misses (188th). Clemson doesn’t have imposing size (their effective height is also below the college average) but they have a good core of athletes led by Trevor Booker.
• Shooting. Clemson s a very good shooting team and their 2 point, 3 point, and effective shooting percentages all fall in the top 55 nationally. They don’t attempt a particularly high number of three pointers but they have two very capable shooters in Terrence Oglesby and KC Rivers.
• Turnovers, blocks, and steals. As previously mentioned, Clemson excels at forcing turnovers. They rank in the top 16 nationally in turnover, steals, and block percentages. Michigan has played three schools that force more turnovers than Clemson (Savannah State (9th), Northwestern (12th), and UCLA (15th)) with about a 50% success rate. Savannah State and Northwestern (round 2) were nightmares while UCLA and Northwestern (round 1) were solid performances.

Clemson’s Weaknesses

• Defensive Rebounding. Clemson rebounds only 63.5% of their opponents’ misses (302nd). Michigan isn’t a good enough offensive rebounding team to really punish them in my estimation. I also think that when a team blocks (and attempts to block) so many shots they are more likely to give up offensive rebounds.
• Getting to the line. Clemson doesn’t get to the line much at all, just a little more than Michigan. Both teams do a good job of keeping opponents off of the line and neither team can get there. Will there even be a free throw attempt?
• Three point defense. Clemson has a solid 2-point defense but they allow their opponents to shoot 35.8% from behind the arc, well above the national average. This is worse than every Big Ten team besides Indiana.

Intangibles

• Pace. I pointed out that Clemson tends to play at a faster pace and Michigan tends to play at a slower pace. However Michigan plays better at a faster pace while Clemson plays better at a slower pace. Judging by Ken Pomeroy’s correlation data (which I believe I am reading correctly), Michigan’s offensive efficiency increases and their defensive efficiency decreases the faster the pace of the game. Clemson’s data shows the exactly opposite effect.
• Coaches. Beilein has overachieved just about every time he is in the tournament (4-1 in the first round, 6-4 overall) and Purnell is the exact opposite (0-5 all time). Will the trend hold or is regression toward the mean likely?
• The Collapse. I also talked about this early in the week but Clemson looks to be in the midst of their patented mid-season collapse. Will they be able to break the curse with a tourney win this year?
• Conferences. The Big Ten has been getting destroyed for the last two weeks or so in the media. The last time Michigan played an out of conference game they hung with a #1 seed that they matched up terribly with on their floor. The most surprising aspect of the UConn game was that at times Michigan looked more physical than UConn. I will be keeping a keen eye on the officiating. I think Michigan fares better in a tightly called game but maybe they are more prepared than we think for a more physical game because of the physical nature of the Big Ten?
• Rest. This was originally pointed out in the comments (sorry I don’t remember by who) and brought up again in an MGoBlue diary along with some fancy tables and graphs. The bottom line: Michigan plays much better with rest and this should be a good sign for the first round but not so much the second.

I arrived in Kansas City tonight so I’ll be at Sprint Center all day tomorrow. Seeing Michigan run on the court in Kansas City will be a treat in itself, especially in a year I only dreamed about making the tournament. It’s win or go home but I am proud of this team regardless. As a fan all I can hope to see is that all-out nothing to lose attitude that we saw against UCLA, Duke, and Purdue. Pomeroy and Vegas both like Clemson by 5 but it’s hard to go against John Beilein in the NCAA tournament.

Hopefully there is a good crowd of Michigan fans at the game but after seeing the turn out in Indianapolis I’m not expecting much. I’ll be posting comments throughout the day so stay tuned. Let’s hear your thoughts, predictions and Kelvin Grady talk in the comments.

Go Blue.

Pre-Game Reading:

• After 10 seasons, Michigan basketball has ended its dry spell
  Rosenberg on the last 10 years
• The OP
  Clemson blog with a look at the other side
• Beilein’s power of persuasion lifts Michigan
  “He’s done a great job of getting us to believe,” Sims said. “Believing had been lost before – maybe since the last time they were in the tournament. “But he taught us to believe again, and once you do that, it’s very easy from there.”
• Manny Harris’ swag is enough to get Michigan a tourney win or two
  One thing about me… Yeah I got swag.
• Men’s Basketball Media Quotes from NCAA First-Round Practice
  Beilein, Merritt, CJ
• Practice Photo Gallery
  There is also a video from practice on the main basketball page at MGoBlue
• Michigan vs. The Field
  Worst field goal differential and rebounding margin with the most three point attempts.
• NCAA First Round: (7) Clemson vs. (10) Michigan
  Deadspin

It looks like the key to this game is going to be the turnover battle. Michigan has done a great job of holding onto the ball but Clemson is one of the best teams in the nation at forcing turnovers. Clemson lives and dies off of its full court press and Michigan really hasn’t seen a team that presses all the time.

To delve a little deeper into the ins and outs of Clemson’s defense I dug up an ESPN.com video explaining Clemson’s press and I also asked Bruno from the X’s and O’s of Coaching Basketball a little bit about what exactly Oliver Purnell does and how you beat it. We’ll start with the video:

Now here is what Bruno had to say, make sure to check out the X’s and O’s of Coaching Basketball because it is definitely worth your time if you’re a basketball fan. I may or may not add graphics later, I don’t have them yet and I’m headed to Kansas City this afternoon (I’ll be twittering on the way there).

Under Coach Oliver Purnell, the Clemson Tigers have been characterized as a pressure defense team. They like to press full-court the whole game and score a large part of their points off their press. There are two kinds of presses they use:

1. Diamond Press. The diamond press or the 1-2-1-1 is a very aggressive press that is designed to put incredible amount of pressure on the first pass. In other words, they generally allow the ball to be inbounded but then trap the first pass in the backcourt corners. They take away the center of the court and attempt to force the ball on the sideline where they can setup a secondary trap once the ball is passed out of the first trap.

The weaknesses of the diamond press include the soft spot in the middle, between the center-court defender and the inbounds (roughly the free-throw line in the backcourt). Once the ball is passed into the soft spot, a tall, capable passer can pass over top of the zone to fast breaking players running their lanes. Once the ball is advanced past halfcourt, the offense generally has a temporary numbers advantage. A key game in which their diamond press was exposed was against Seth Greenberg’s Virginia Tech Hokies. While still turning over the ball, they still managed to score many points in transition and more importantly they beat the Tigers.

2. Full Court Man Press. I’ve seen the Tigers run more M2M full court press in the last few weeks than earlier in the season. The M2M full court press is really just their same halfcourt M2M defense but extended full court. The are no trapping areas like in the zone press, but the individual defense by each player puts pressure not only on the ball but in denying the passing lanes. Generally, a M2M full court press will not generate as many turnovers as a zone press will, but the advantage being that it is easier to transition from full-court M2M to half-court M2M than zone press to half-court M2M.

The weakness of most M2M full court presses is their overly aggressive nature. Since most full court M2M defenses will play on the line/up the line (ie. shoot the gaps and anticipate passes) they are very susceptible to backdoor cuts and over the top passes.

Also make sure to check out the X’s and O’s explanation of Michgan’s 1-3-1 zone.