John Gasaway, of Basketball Prospectus, (and formerly the Big Ten Wonk) agreed to answer some questions about Michigan and the Big Ten. Gasaway is a pioneer when it comes to college basketball analysis and although he left the Big Ten Wonk for greener pastures beyond the Big Ten, he’s still one of the best in the business.
You guys have listened to me babble for six or seven months about the upcoming season, so I figure it’ll be good to hear from a fresh voice. Thanks again to John for taking the time to answer the questions – you can follow him at Basketball Prospectus, on Twitter (@johngasaway), and he also just finalized his book, The Basketball Prospectus 2010 Major-Conference Preview.
Expectations are so high across the conference that someone is bound to be disappointed. If you had to pick one, which of last year’s seven NCAA tournament teams (MSU, Purdue, Illinois, OSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan) do you see taking a big step back this year? Is the Big Ten a 7 bid league again this year?
To be honest, I don’t see any of those seven taking a big step back, though Michigan State, Illinois, and Wisconsin would figure to be the most vulnerable to backtracking since they return fewer minutes than the other four teams. That being said, the number of bids that the Big Ten receives will not be simply a function of the league’s quality. It will also be a function of what’s out there beyond the borders of the slowest-paced league in the land. The SEC, to take one teachable example, will definitely absorb more bids this year than they did last year. And bids are a zero-sum game.
Michigan fans are clearly excited after ending their NCAA tournament drought and putting together one of their best seasons in the last decade. What do you think of this year’s Michigan team that returns Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims? Do they have what it takes to compete for the Big Ten title and make a run in March?
Michigan fans are right to be excited–goodness knows they’ve paid their dues. While I don’t expect the Wolverines to win more games than Purdue in the Big Ten this year, I do expect John Beilein’s team to make the NCAA tournament with ease and secure a really nice seed.
Now, if you have any UM fans among your readership who really insist on seeing that glass as half-empty, shake them vigorously and remind them of the years 1999-2007. Then tell them: OK, you have a point. (A small and splenetic one, but a point.) Your coach is pretty plainly invested in "going small" with this current generation of talent and playing Sims at the 5. (I say in our forthcoming book that Sims is underrated.) Beilein is probably one of my five favorite coaches in the country. If he says bringing in Gibson and moving Sims to the 4 would cost more points on offense than it would prevent on defense, I for one believe him. It does mean, however, that Michigan will continue to give up a lot of twos on defense. That is the limiting factor I see with this year’s team.
But let’s take a step back. Look how we’re talking here. I say I think Michigan has a limiting factor. So what? Even my answer assumes the Wolverines will get to the tournament and do well. Would you have taken that two years ago?
In fact, I want to pipe up on behalf of one of your players. I read the interview you did with KJ of The Only Colors and I have to take issue with your statement that Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas "is easily the best point guard in the conference." Really? What about a certain Manny Harris? Oh, I know last year there were always other Wolverines on the floor alongside Harris who proudly wore the "point guard" label (Kelvin Grady, C.J. Lee, Stu Douglass, etc.). I for one don’t buy it. Harris had by far the highest assist rate on the team and, more importantly, he ran this offense in the literal Beilein-ian sense. Plus Lucas is hapless inside the arc, making an anemic 40 percent of his twos last year. I’ll grant you that Lucas made Sherron Collins look really bad at a propitious moment (less than a minute left in a tie game) in the Sweet 16 and is clearly superior to Harris when it comes to nailing threes. I’m just sayin’. Not open and shut from my chair.
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