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Michigan heads to Madison on Wednesday to take on the pesky Badgers. Phil from Hoops Marinara, our favorite Wisconsin blog, was nice enough to answer a couple questions about Wisconsin thus far. I also answered some questions about Michigan, which you can read here.

What has Wisconsin done to cope with losing Jon Leuer to injury? Also, what’s the latest on Leuer’s injury status, when is he expected to return?

In the absence of Leuer, Wisconsin has committed to small ball. Bo Ryan is starting sophomore Jordan Taylor in a three-guard approach right now. The Badgers used this look a lot before, but now Taylor is being asked to take on about 10 of Leuer’s 28 mpg right off the top. Bo has also indicated his rotation will be more situational without Leuer, depending on the quickness and size of the opponent. Leuer will be replaced by committee.

Some are predicting Leuer could return in 4-6 weeks from last Tuesday’s surgery, but I really doubt you will see him back during the Big Ten regular season. The bone he broke in the left wrist is a tricky one medically (it’s complicated), so I think they will play it safe. But most people are expecting that he will be able to play in the Big Ten tournament.

Continue reading ‘Chatting with the Enemy: Hoops Marinara’

Before the season I predicted a Freshman All-Big Ten team which included Royce White, DJ Richardson, Christian Watford, Drew Crawford, and Maurice Creek. Since then, White has been arrested twice once and Maurice Creek suffered a season ending knee injury. Watford, Richardson and Crawford have all put together very solid freshmen campaigns thus far.

In an effort to look at freshmen across the conference, I pulled the data from Ken Pomeroy’s statistics to find all of the freshmen who have played over 35% of the minutes at their position. 16 players fit the bill and here are their basic tempo free stats sorted by usage% (number of possessions that a player users). Click any header to sort by that column. For explanations of the stats, read the player section here.

There’s plenty to note here, so let’s try to break down this list into some groups.
Continue reading ‘Revisiting the Freshman Class’

Big Ten Media Day is underway in Chicago. John Beilein, Manny Harris, and DeShawn Sims are there representing Michigan. The AP Preseason Top 25 and Naismith Preseason Top 50 lists are also due out sometime today.

Friday – Andy Katz looks at Beilein’s preparation and his passion for breaking down film.

Friday – The Daily profiles DeShawn Sims and his newfound maturity.

9:45 PM – Big Ten Media Day Coached Transcripts (PDF)

3:17 PM – In his breakdown of the top 25, Mike DeCourcy lists Michigan as his overrated team.

2:51 PM – DeShawn Sims speaks about expectations and the NBA. Video from Mike Rothstein of AnnArbor.com:

12:44 PM – The AP Poll was just released, similar to the Coaches’ poll, Michigan comes in at 15th. Other Big Ten teams include Michigan St (2), Purdue (7), Ohio State (16), Illinois (23), and Minnesota (25).

12:39 PM – Manny Harris stopped for a quick interview with the Big Ten Network:

10:05 AM – Some highlights from Beilein’s presser at Media Day. (Summary of tweets from @bigtenconf, @michdailysports, @dailydosesports, @freepwolverines, and @jonjkerr)

• This is one of the toughest schedules Michigan has played in sometime. Possibly one of the toughest in Beilein’s career.
• Beilein on rebuilding: “You have to build those relationships and then you have that trust.”
• Zack Novak is a leader on this team despite being a sophomore. Novak is a good glue guy, is in great shape, and is at the business school.
• Beilein wrote the team a letter this offseason telling them that they are still hunters, they haven’t achieved anything yet. When Michigan in the NCAAs is expected, then they will have the program turned around.
• Beilein says that the NBA can be a great motivator, tells Harris and Sims to practice everyday as if there are NBA scouts watching.
  

I’ll be retweeting updates throughout the day on my twitter page (@umhoops), you can also follow the hashtag #bbmd for more updates.

• 10:01 AM — Manny Harris was named to the Preseason Top 50 Naismith Watch List. JaJuan Johnson definitely got snubbed and I think DeShawn Sims deserves to be on the list as well.
• 8:34 AM — The USA Today Preseason Top 25 has been released, Michigan comes in at #15. Other ranked Big Ten schools include MSU 2, Purdue 7, OSU 17, and Minnesota 18.
• 8:34 AM — The Preseason All Big Ten team includes Kalin Lucas (POTY), Manny Harris, Evan Turner, Talor Battle, and Robbie Hummel.
• 8:34 AM — The media chose a top 3 in conference of Michigan St, Purdue, and Ohio State.

Here is John Beilein’s pre-Media Day interview with the Big Ten Network:

With his recent track record, I hesitate to call Jay Bilas a voice of reason. Yes, the same Jay Bilas who has emotional problems and called for Beilein to “get control of his program” and the same one who ripped Beilein excessively in year one. I respect Jay’s knowledge of the game but it’s hard to deny that he has had problems with Michigan and the Tommy Amaker situation in the past. However, he is one of the few reporters who spends a significant amount of time covering college basketball throughout the off-season so he has plenty of second chances.

I have actually agreed with a majority of his hoops observations this summer and recently he even provided a fair take on the Rich Rodriguez practice drama. Maybe Jay isn’t a mortal enemy to all Michigan fans after all? Back on the basketball side of things it appears that Jay might be jumping on the Big Ten bandwagon as well, he ranked the conference as the #1 basketball conference in the country next year, ahead of the precious ACC and Big East.

I agree that the Big Ten very well should be the #1 conference next year. However, I still think some of Jay’s logic misses the boat. He emphasizes that depth from top-to-bottom is the most important factor to rank a conference and goes on to emphasize that the Big Ten is basement-less.

The Big Ten always has been strong at the top, but the bottom of the league often has let the league down. For too many seasons, the Big Ten has been unfairly criticized for its style of play and the relative weakness of the lower third of the conference. Not this season. There is nary a doormat in the league, as Northwestern, Iowa and Indiana all will be much improved and much more competitive nationally.

Saying that Iowa will be much improved is simply poor research, they are the definition of a guaranteed doormat, it’s safe to pencil them in for the 11th spot with 16+ conference losses. Indiana should improve, how can you not improve from 1-17, but they will be welcoming a lot of freshmen for a second straight year. The bottom several teams (sans Iowa) might be one step above your typical bottom feeder but the conference shouldn’t be nearly as deep as last year when nine teams won at least eight games. (For more on which teams lose the most, check out my returning minutes post from earlier this summer)

The bottom of the conference might not be quite as good, but the top will only get stronger. The seven Big Ten teams that made the NCAA tournament last year are poised to improve by leaps and bounds this year. That is where the true strength of the conference lies.

Considering BJ Mullens was really the only departure to the NBA, the conference is loaded with individual talent and there should be an extraordinary race for player of the year honors. September feels like the perfect time to start handicapping the race.

1. Evan Turner
17.3 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 4apg, eFG% 51.7%, 107.5 ORtg, 29.8% Usage

Why He Will Win: Evan Turner is the most talented player in the conference. He scores, rebounds, and sets up his teammates and his team should be better than they were last year.
And Why He Won’t: He’s moving to the point guard, a position that he hasn’t played in college and probably isn’t a natural for. The position switch has the potential to give him problems and even if he is a natural, he could see his numbers (especially rebounding) dip.

Continue reading ‘Handicapping the Big Ten Player of the Year Race’

It’s almost football season but that doesn’t mean we can’t start talking about basketball. Joining in on the fun over at The Only Colors, here is an early look at the Big Ten conference. I used a couple posts over at Villanova by the Numbers for some more off-season inspiration and decided to take a look at how much conference teams are returning in various statistical categories. The Only Colors takes a slightly different approach using returning minutes plotted against last year’s Pomeroy rating for each team.

VBTN is quick to point out that returning minutes (and other statistics) is not necessarily a great predictor when comparing teams. It tends to be more effective to predict a team’s improvement over the year before. VBTN also looked at three year trends to confirm some of this and noted that John Beilein’s West Virginia teams tend to imr. This isn’t surprising given Beilein’s complicated system and proven track record for steady improvement.

We all know that the entire all-conference first team is returning, so the star power will definitely be back next year. The question is beyond the stars, how much does each team bring back? Apparently quite a bit, only one team, Iowa, loses more than half of their scoring and minutes.  Comparing the chart of the Big Ten (below) to the Big East is staggering in terms of how much more the Big Ten returns.

Top two and bottom two of each statistical category are highlighted. These numbers aren’t guaranteed, I may have missed a transfer or departure but I was mostly working off of this list for transfers.

The news here looks pretty good for Michigan, who ranks very high in most of the categories. Michigan returns the most in blocks and free throws made, these are two of the weaknesses of last year’s team. The debate is whether this means Michigan will see a big jump with added experience, or they are stuck with the same struggles on the interior.

Three point shooting, shooting, and scoring are all very encouraging. The nucleus of this team returns and with a couple added parts Michigan has the potential to be very good. Michigan’s numbers aren’t necessarily that surprising, we knew this team brings back a lot, however the rest of the numbers from around the conference are pretty appalling. All of the contenders bring back a lot of their teams from last year, this could be a special year in terms of Big Ten talent.

Here are some quick notes on each team in the conference (other than Michigan) in roughly the order I think they will fall this year:

• Michigan State loses a big chunk of their minutes, defense, and rebounding with Walton, Suton, Gray, and Ibok all moving on. However, it would be pretty foolish to complain about returning around 70% of a team that made it to the Championship game last year.
• Purdue returns 80% of their production across the board and really doesn’t lose anyone of note besides Calasan and Green. The Baby Boilers are growing up and they should be a consistent top 15 team this year.
• Minnesota ranks in the top two in 7 of 8 categories, and they return over 85% of their production in every category. With a monster freshmen class headed to the Twin Cities there is plenty to be excited about. Minnesota was the 2nd best rebounding team in the conference, they return the most rebounding, and Trevor Mbakwe and Royce White should only make things better.
• Ohio State returns everyone but BJ Mullens but they don’t bring any freshmen. The Buckeyes have an odd combo of wing players without a true point guard. I’m not sure if that keeps them from getting over the hump and being a great team but they have experience and talent as well as arguably the best player in the conference, Evan Turner.
• Illinois loses their defensive stopper (Frazier) in a similar fashion as Michigan (Lee) and Michigan State (Walton) but they have arguably the best one-two punch inside with Davis and Tisdale. Illinois losing a lot of their three point shooting doesn’t worry me because that was not their game plan last year, the assists on the other hand are an issue. Incoming freshmen Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson will provide an influx of talent and athleticism into the backcourt next to Demetri McCamey.
• Wisconsin is looking at a rebuilding year on paper after losing Krabbenhoft and Landry. I still have a tough time believing they will struggle because Wisconsin seems to always reload regardless of who is on the court.
• Penn State is probably the biggest loser besides Iowa — losing Cornley, Pringle, and Morrissey — Battle is great but they are  going to need some people to step up that weren’t contributors last year.
• Northwestern returns everyone’s favorite rec league player, Kevin Coble, but they lose Craig Moore. Three point shooting takes a huge hit but Northwestern should continue to improve on the inside with so many pieces returning.
• Indiana brings in another huge freshmen class but they already lost enough of last year’s class (Story and Williams) that there probably won’t be enough continuity to make huge strides.
• Iowa fans have nothing to look forward to besides the upcoming football season. The Hawkeyes return the least in every statistical category that I picked out. They weren’t great last year and their incoming class won’t raise many eyebrows either.

Who do I have ranked too high? Who is too low? I think Michigan falls somewhere in the Minnesota, Ohio State, Illinois range but I’m having a very tough time differentiating there. Where would you place Michigan in the conference at this point?