Last fall I put together a list of the worst games of the 2008-09 season in attempt to damper expectations. This year I put the list together to show off a new development from Ken Pomeroy. Pomeroy released a series of fancy win probability graphs from every division one basketball game last year. The graphs are color coded from blue (least important) to yellow (most important) on a possession by possession basis. Naturally there aren’t many enjoyable graphs to look at from a Michigan standpoint. Anyways, here are the five most painful Michigan losses of the 2009-10 season in visual form:

All of the images are linked to Pomeroy’s full screen graphs (much easier to read) and you can get to any game by clicking the score of a particular game on Michigan’s team page.

vs Ohio State (BTT):

It was fitting that Michigan’s season ended as painfully as this one. Evan Turner’s running shot that ended Michigan’s season is one of the more interesting graph’s from Michigan’s season. Pomeroy’s numbers had Ohio State in control for most of the game before Michigan’s late run put them above 90% win probability. Then this happened.

vs. MSU:

This is the one game that was really back and forth on the list. Michigan countered every attack by Michigan State and pushed the game back to their side but in the end when it looked like they could finally knock off the Spartans, Kalin Lucas put a dagger in their hearts.

vs. Northwestern:

vs. PSU:

Alabama (Old Spice):

These three are almost identical. Michigan was in control for significant chunks of the game and then fell apart down the stretch. You could just as easily have thrown the Penn State game on the list and it would follow a similar pattern. Certain moments on these graphs stick out – for example the end of the Northwestern game where Michigan takes control before Manny Harris gets beat on a backdoor cut.

This obviously isn’t the happiest way to start the day, if you want to look at a few more cheery graphs then check out the Connecticut, Ohio State, Minnesota, and Creighton games.

Photo credit: AnnArbor.com

Last year Manny Harris won the team MVP award and shared it with DeShawn Sims. This year the script was flipped, Sims won the award and brought Harris to the podium to share it. Sims was deserving of the MVP in my mind so the decision seems fitting.

There aren’t too many surprises in terms of who won what award. The most interesting winner was Blake McLimans, who won the Most Improved Player Award. This is great news because Michigan is going to need McLimans to contribute next year and the fact that he’s made strides in practice is certainly encouraging.

Here’s the full list:

Bill Buntin Most Valuable Player Award: DeShawn Sims, Manny Harris
Rudy Tomjanovich Most Improved Player Award: Blake McLimans
Wayman Britt Outstanding Defensive Player Award: Darius Morris
Steve Grote Hustle Award: Zack Novak
Thad Garner Leadership Award: Zack Novak
Travis Conlan Sportsmanship Award: Stu Douglass
Bodnar Award for Academic Achievement: Matt Vogrich
Gary Grant Award for Most Assists: Manny Harris
Loy Vaught Rebounding Award: DeShawn Sims
Award for Outstanding Free Throw Shooting: Manny Harris
Sixth Man Award: Zack Gibson
Iron Man Award: DeShawn Sims
Charge Award: Zack Novak

Some of the more interesting nuggets of the night came from Beilein’s comments to the media before the banquet:

• Ben Cronin’s scholarship is available and he won’t play again.
• Akunne is back to walk-on status.
• Beilein doesn’t anticipate Kelvin Grady returning to the team.
• Michigan plans to bid for the MHSAA finals.
• On the coaching change: “I can’t say it’s anything specific; I would just say change is part of a program, and we’re going through that,” Beilein said at the team’s postseason banquet today. “I’ve got to make decisions based on what I think is best for the University of Michigan. … It’s about the future and what I think is our future.”

The Price of Anarchy is a theory that has been circulating the nerdy basketball circles that yours truly dabbles in. In short it’s a way to explain how a basketball offense can become more efficient when its best (and most used) players take fewer shots.

This theory might sound familiar if you have ever heard of Bill Simmons’ Ewing Theory. Simmons’ theory attempts to explain how a team can lose its best player and somehow improve. Simmons lays out the theory in his typical satirical and entertaining ways and cites remarkable occurrences of teams improving when superstars get hurt, it also focuses a lot more on psychological issues. Brian Skinner’s recent paper and presentation at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference begins to explain how something like this could be mathematically possible.

You can read the full article for the technical jargon and mathematical explanations or Skinner’s blog post on the topic. I recommend reading at least one or the other because Skinner explains the concept in great detail (really, read it). The main idea is that basketball is a network problem. Every route to the basket (simplified as every player or shooting option) is a different way to a similar goal: scoring a basket. Some players are more efficient than others but all options are capable of scoring. The catch is that the more an option is used, the less efficient it becomes.

The standard problem used to explain the price of anarchy is rush hour traffic. In the rush hour problem, it becomes clear that the whole community can experience faster commute times if some people choose to take slower routes. The social welfare maximizing outcome prevents other roads from becoming backed up and the average commute for the entire community decreases despite some people experiencing longer commutes.  The most extreme example of this is when big cities experience more efficient traffic flow after closing the most traveled roads. (This whole example is explained much better in the original paper and also at Gravity and Levity.)

So on the basketball court the idea is that an offense is most efficient when there is an equal chance that every player on the floor will shoot the ball. Here’s Skinner:

On the basketball court, possessions are like cars. Each one starts at point A (the in-bounds) and attempts to travel to point B (the basket). Different plays are like different roads: each one has a different efficiency that will generally decrease the more it is used. In principle, all of the methodologies and “paradoxes” associated with traffic patterns should be applicable to basketball as well.

This obviously keeps the defense more honest (they can’t just focus on a specific outcome) but it logically holds up without even considering the defense. Skinner’s article explains “skill curves” that attempt to project that the optimum number of shots a star player should take. It’s nearly impossible to accurately graph every player’s skill curve but there is no doubt truth behind this concept.

We see examples of this phenomenon all the time in sports. Some of them could be chalked up as sample size errors but they happen. Just over the last few months in college basketball we saw Michigan State play surprisingly efficient basketball for a stretch without Kalin Lucas. We also saw Notre Dame turn their season around when their best player, Luke Harongody, got hurt. Harongody just happened to take 37% of Notre Dame’s shots when he was on the floor, the highest percentage in the country.

You probably realize where this is going in relation to next year’s Michigan team.  Michigan lost two players who accounted for around 60.2% of the team’s shots. A quick glance over KenPom numbers yielded only 3 high major teams that had a pair of players combine for shot% over 60%: Stanford (Fields, Green), Georgia (Thompkins, Leslie), and Notre Dame (Harangody, Abromaitis).

Sims and Harris also took more shots than any other duo in the Big Ten and Michigan is also the only team to lose both of their top two shot takers in the Big Ten. Here’s a breakdown of how many shots each Big Ten team’s “top two duos” took:

Not surprisingly, the most common thought that fans have about Michigan’s season next year is doom. When Michigan won, Sims and Harris typically had monster games. When Michigan lost, they disappointed. In this era of superstars, they are all we remember. Not to mention the other players on the team either regressed from their freshman year or had inconsistent freshman seasons.

Sims and Harris took an average of 28 shots per game last season. Obviously, one or even two people won’t step up to take all of these shots. Instead they will be more optimally distributed among the team.

All returning players that are expected to be key cogs in next year’s offense took less than 16% of Michigan’s shots when they were on the floor, well below even an equal distribution of 20%. The fact that they didn’t get take their shots in the last two years is a bit troubling but there’s no doubt that the dynamic of next year’s team will be different.

Ideally next year’s team will look something like John Beilein’s West Virginia teams. His 2005 team had six players take over 19% of the team’s shots when they were on the floor. Similarly his 2007 team had 4 freshmen and sophomores in a group of 6 players that took  over 18% of the team’s shots when they were on the floor. Beilein’s offenses over his last three years at West Virginia ranked 18th, 12th, and 13th in Pomeroy’s rankings and were in many ways the epitome of balanced offense.

There are also some flaws with this analysis… None of Novak, Douglass, Morris, or Lucas-Perry was able to hit shots at a particularly efficient rate last season. They all had an eFG% between 43 and 48 percent, making the likelihood that they will become more effective with more shots unlikely. The greatest hope here is that last year was some kind of sophomore slump but we won’t find that out until next year.

Expecting an elite offense next year would be ludicrous however the Price of Anarchy gives us at least some reason for hope. It’s unlikely that Michigan will have a player that takes over 25% of their shots next year. The question is what happens to the multitude of players who will add a couple more shots per game.

This is an over simplistic model because there are also other factors effecting a game beyond shooting. Sims and Harris accounted for around half of Michigan’s rebounding and rebounding might be Michigan’s biggest concern next year. It also doesn’t consider other abilities like Harris’ 27.7% assist rate.

There are a lot of shots available next year and someone is going to have to take them. Under John Beilein, Michigan  has maximized their possessions by limiting turnovers which means that the shot attempts will be there. Novak, Douglass, Lucas-Perry, Morris, Vogrich, McLimans, Morgan, Hardaway, Smotrycz, Horford, and any other freshmen that enter the picture will get their looks. The scary part is that we haven’t seen half of next year’s play college basketball and not all balanced teams are good teams, you still have to make shots.

• End of season content will start coming soon around these parts… Sorry for the delay.
• Michigan’s Harris undecided on plans for next year
  Nothing new here. Sam Webb recently stated on the radio that if he had to guess he’d handicap Harris’ chances of returning at 65% yes and 35% no. The early entry deadline is April 27th and the NCAA mandated withdrawal date is May 8th.
• Michigan basketball 2009-10: What was missing? ($)
  It’s a shame that this is premium because it’s a great piece. Jeff Schiller compares Michigan’s season to Maryland’s season in an attempt to examine what went wrong for Michigan.
• The 2010 Big Ten Basketball Season in Groovy Chart Form
  I believe I forgot to link this… KJ graphs game by game efficiencies on the season… Minnesota rescued our statistics.
• Regional video: Cody Zeller ($)
  Premium on Rivals
• VIDEO: Park Tudor Sophomore Yogi Ferrell ($)
  Premium on Scout
• Southfield advances to boys basketball regional final with win over Pontiac
  Southfield plays tonight, at Lake Orion, for a regional title versus Clarkston. Brundidge had a game high 24 in the regional semi-final. Zeigler is also in action tonight versus Saginaw Arthur Hill (at Bay City Central).
• Michigan Basketball 2009-10
  Tim’s take on the season over at Mgoblog
• Playing the name game | Hawkmania
  Who’s going to get Lickliter’s job?
• WhatIfSports.com: Big Ten Network Bracket of Classics, College Basketball Tournament
  89 Michigan team with a 3 seed

Even though Michigan isn’t dancing this year, I setup a group over at Yahoo! and it’s open to the public so anyone is welcome to join in the fun. There’s no prize or anything but you can prove yourself as the most knowledgeable basketball fan around.

You can join the group here and the ID# is 77772.

Box score.

Michigan battled with Ohio State and continuously fought back despite being  behind by double digits for long stretches of the second half but in the end it wasn’t enough. Manny Harris single handily carried Michigan back into the game but it was all for not after Turner’s 40 foot running jumper as time expired.

Turner’s shot was tremendous and there’s a reason that he’s the best college basketball player in the country. Still, it was a running 40 footer from a 28% three point shooter. That’s not a high percentage shot from anyone.

First off, I don’t have a major problem with not defending the inbounder. If you are going to take a running shot like that, the inbounds pass isn’t all that critical. Guarding the inbounder comes into play if they are able to make a very long pass downcourt, Turner caught the ball at free throw line extended. It was a pass that could have been made even with Zack Gibson guarding Lighty.

What you do have to do is impede his progress at some point before half court. This didn’t happen because Buford set a great screen on Douglass. Once Turner is across half court, you simply can’t foul him so actually contesting the shot is tough to do. If you watch the replay, Douglass did have a bit of a hand in his face but not fouling has to be the #1 priority in that situation.

Still, Michigan needed to slow Turner down. I would have put one more player in the backcourt, especially with Buford back there as well, in an attempt to slow Turner down but I also realize that Beilein didn’t want to give up the long pass and a potential good two point look. 2.2 seconds is a time frame where you really have to think about throwing the ball further down the court. 4 or 5 seconds and you are more likely to see the kind of play that Ohio State ran because you can run the length of the court easier.

If Turner misses that shot, are people questioning whether Ohio State should have thrown the ball further down the court in attempt to a get a better look? It’s a thin line. At the end of the day, Turner made a hell of a shot and made it look ridiculously easy but not forcing Turner to work in the backcourt falls on Michigan’s defensive plan.

Back to the other 39 minutes and 57.8 seconds. There were a bunch of “here we go again” moments starting with Michigan’s collapse at the end of the first half which allowed Ohio State to close the half on a 25-6 run. Michigan consistently cut the lead to 5 or 6 points ago but Ohio State typically answered, pushing the lead back to ten. But for one of the first time this year, Michigan managed to play through their mistakes.

Then Manny Harris took over. Harris had 22 of his 26 points in the second half and scored in just about every way possible. He got to the free throw line, he took the ball to the rack, scored in transition, hit three point shots, and even scored in the midrange. Harris had some definitely low points this year but this was one of the high notes.  It was a firm reminder of just what Manny can be if he returns for his senior year. Harris provided no update on his future after the game, saying it would be “wrong and selfish” to discuss his future after the loss which is certainly reasonable.

Looking at the four factors… The game was pretty much a dead heat. Michigan outrebounded the Buckeyes and got to the free throw line more often. Ohio State outshot Michigan by the slimmest of margins (Turner’s last shot was the difference) and also won the turnover battle. Michigan turned the ball over 9 times in the first half but did a much better job in the second.

It was a valiant effort from Michigan but in the end it just wasn’t enough. The adage about “big time players making big time plays” is a cliche but in today’s case it was just the truth. Manny Harris was phenomenal but Evan Turner had the ball last, even if it was only for the last 2.2 seconds.

It’s fitting for this season to end with one more punch in the gut but now it’s time to move toward the future with signing day only a month away. You can bet that the players returning on this roster will be hungry. Any sort of complacency that developed during last off-season won’t be tolerable. In terms of what happens on the blog… We’ll have a series of posts examining what went wrong this year followed by a series of posts hypothesizing how to fix things. We’ll also continue to cover recruiting and everything else that we’ve done before.

Player Bullets:

• Manny Harris: As I said in the post, Manny was just phenomenal. Some of the shots that he hit down the stretch are ones that we just haven’t seen from him. If Harris is able to supplement the rest of his game with the pull up jumper and a little runner, he will be far more dangerous. I don’t think he’s an NBA prospect right now but I wouldn’t fault him for putting his name in the draft without hiring an agent, leaving the door open to return.
• Stu Douglass: Stu hit some huge three pointers in the second half and kept Michigan in the game. It was a long year for Stu, playing a lot more point guard than might have been expected but this was a great performance from Douglass.
• DeShawn Sims: Peedi shot the ball very well but he had a couple of frustrating turnovers, mostly in the first half. It was still an all around solid performance from Sims in the last game of his career. I’m going to miss Peedi shooting those baseline fadeaway jumpshots, that’s for sure.
• Zack Novak: 8 points (3-6 shooting) with three boards for Novak. I was shocked to see his two drives, including the pretty scoop layup under the rim. It’s something we expected more of this year but never really saw.
• Zack Gibson: Gibson provided a few quality minutes and it was great to see him play hard down the stretch. Gibson was woefully inconsistent throughout his career but he did have his moments of glory.
• Laval Lucas-Perry: Three rebounds, 2 steals, and two assists is nice but Laval’s shooting was just painful down the stretch this year. It’s the cross roads for Laval, he needs to make major strides this offseason.

There’s not a more fitting way for this season to end than another heartbreaking loss. Michigan has lost a number of close games this season and this was probably the most painful loss yet.

The clock looks suspiciously close to starting late but I don’t think the officials are allowed to review when the clock started. Not to mention, it is always going to be human controlled so you just have to go with it. Thad Matta certainly didn’t look open to the idea of a review, judging by the rage he unleashed on the scorers table. Bottom line: Turner hit a ridiculous 40 foot shot at the buzzer. There’s a reason he’s the best college basketball player in the country.

I’ll have a full post-game later, including thoughts about defending the last play.

Basics: Iowa box score. Ohio State match-up statistics. Next game: 12PM ESPN.

Apologies in advance but I have to keep it short because of time constraints… The Iowa game was ugly but at this point it’s tough to complain about a win.

For the first 10 minutes, everything was running smoothly and Michigan was scoring points at ease. Then Iowa switched to the zone defense and Michigan appeared bewildered. Michigan couldn’t buy a three point shot and they kept firing.

Four factors graphs sans interpretation:

Next up, Ohio State at noon eastern on ESPN. Evan Turner is good. The rest of the Ohio State starting is also good. Ohio State is a 9 point favorite and it’s really tough to see Michigan standing a chance.

For more on Ohio State here is the preview and post game from the last contest in Columbus. There isn’t really a good match-up on the court for Michigan so it will take a very impressive effort. Ohio State is probably playing for a one seed and Michigan needs a miracle to make the NIT.

It’s Ohio State’s first game in 10 days and also their first game in Indianapolis. That coupled with a noon tip off are probably the biggest x-factors going Michigan’s way. It’s not the best news when those are the only positives that you can come up with.

The post is short so let’s hear your thoughts, predictions, and everything else in the comments.

Basics Who: Michigan (14-16, 7-11) vs. Iowa (10-21, 4-14) Where: Conseco Field House, Indianapolis When: Thursday, March 10th, 2:30 PM EST TV: ESPN2/ESPN360.com Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ 950 AM/WTKA 1050 AM Line:  Michigan by 8 Live TFS Pomeroy Profile Big Ten Tournament Bracket Last Time: Preview / Post Game First Time: Preview / Post Game

Michigan tips off the Big Ten Tournament with a 2:30 matinee versus Iowa (again). Michigan and Iowa have become quite familiar with each other of late. This will be the 9th time that these two programs have faced off in the last three years. Michigan is 5-2 in the last seven contests, going 2-1 each year.

The old adage “it’s tough to beat a team three times” certainly comes into play here. Michigan swept the season series but judging by the game in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes seem to have figured out the Michigan defense. Iowa scored 1.18 points per possession in that game, the third worst defensive performance of Michigan’s season.

Aaron Fuller was simply dominant in that contest. Fuller scored 30 points on 11 of 13 shooting and also pulled down 13 rebounds. Michigan needs to figure out a way to slow down the versatile power forward or they could be looking at a long day. If they do manage to stop Fuller, they should have a great shot to win the game as Iowa’s options beyond Fuller are limited.

The one other player to watch out for is Matt Gatens. Gatens also played very well in the last match-up (21 points on 8 of 13 (3-6 3pt) shooting with 8 rebounds, and four assists) and Michigan will have to do work to slow him down. Gatens three point shooting is down from last year (34% from 40%) but he is still dangerous if he gets going. He also is one of the few Iowa players that has the ability to take the ball to the rack if you over play him.

For Michigan, it’s all about DeShawn Sims. Over the last two years (6 games), Sims averages 21 points and 7 rebounds while shooting 50% from the field. His performances have been highlighted by a game tying three in Iowa City earlier this year and also his monster performance in the Big Ten Tournament last year in which he single handily punched Michigan’s NCAA tournament ticket. Sims will need to bring his A-game which we haven’t seen nearly as often as we did in January.

Iowa’s strengths and weaknesses as a team haven’t changed much since the last game. Their offense has really struggled, they have the second worst offense in the Big Ten at .94 points per possession in conference play. They even shoot the ball worse than Michigan with a shooting line (2pt/3pt/eFG) of 42.04/30.1/46.4. They turn the ball over on 22.3% of their possessions in conference play and only Indiana does a worse job holding onto the ball.

While their offense has been decidedly mediocre, Iowa’s defense hasn’t been any better. Iowa does do one thing well: defend the three point shot. Big Ten opponents shoot only 32.8% from three point range versus the Hawkeyes, second best in the conference. The Hawkeyes’ field goal defense is below average and they give up a ton of good looks from two point range. They don’t force many turnovers but they do manage to keep opponents off the free throw line.

Considering Iowa is one of only two teams that Michigan swept this year, the Wolverines are clearly capable of beating them. Anything can happen in a conference tournament game though and it will come down to whether Michigan executes. At this point no one knows what to expect from this team on any given night. This is most likely the final weekend in one of the most disappointing Michigan basketball seasons in quite some time. It’s a crapshoot how they react… They could go on a torrid winning streak like Baylor last year and come up just short. Or they could go out with barely a wimper and lose to Iowa.

I wouldn’t be surprised at any outcome but the stats do point toward Michigan. Pomeroy likes Michigan by 7 with an 82% chance at victory while Vegas is even more confident and likes Michigan by 8. Let’s hear your thoughts and predictions in the comments.

• Hoops: Horford picks up big offer ($)
  It took a while but Jon Horford landed his offer. He has to make his full campus tour to make things official but once he does, I would assume a commitment will follow shortly after.
• Recruiting Roundup (3-10-10) / Recruiting Roundup (3-9-10) – Part 2 (Podcasts)
  Sam Webb drops some hoops recruiting nuggets. Webb feels good about Zeigler and thinks that Michigan is in good position as things stand now. Webb speculates that it’s a “foregone conclusion” that Horford will receive an offer and that will be made official once he makes the trip to Ann Arbor for the academic presentation etc. Webb also thinks that Horford will commit once the offer is made official.
• Michigan Headed to 2010 Legends Classic
  Post this yesterday, Michigan is playing in the Legends Classic next year along with Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and UTEP. All three schools return a lot of talent (depending on NBA departures) and it will be a tough field. The regional schools have also been added to the post and judging the list I suspect Detroit and Bowling Green will face Michigan.
• Back and Forth, recapping the season
  The Big Ten Geeks look back at their preseason predictions, what went well and what didn’t… Michigan is example A in prognostication failure.
• Big Ten Tournament Preview: The Coronation of …
  The Prospectus previews the Big Ten Tournament. Michigan’s logarithmic projection chance at winning the title: 0.7%. Minnesota has been a statistical (read: Pomeroy) darling all year and the projections like them as a Cinderella candidate but I’m not sure I see it.
• Tempo Free Aerial – Final Edition
  Michigan’s efficiency margin in conference play was actually a tad better than last season.
• NOTEBOOK: Michigan never considered the CBI; Jordan Morgan likely to have surgery
  Beilein explains the decision to skip the CBI. Morgan is getting shoulder surgery and could be looking at a four month recovery period.
• Ohio State swingman David Lighty captains 11th annual All-Glue Team
  Draymond Green got hosed but Lighty is a good choice.
• ESPN – NCAA Womens Bracketology
  Kevin Borseth has the Michigan womens team on the bubble. ESPN projects them as one of the last four teams in the tournament.
• Oakland is going dancing
  The Grizzlies came up one game short last year but they punched their ticket last night. Oakland’s uptempo offense can be fun to watch and it’s great to see the local program make the tournament.
• Committee experience and other musings
  Jay Bilas with some interesting thoughts about the NCAA selection process