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Previously: Stu Douglass (B-)

The Good

• Shooting
  Zack can definitely shoot the three and he hit enough big shots this year to prove it. Zack shot the ball well at the beginning of the year and then hit a wall through the middle of January. The Big Ten season clearly wore him down but he bounced back well down the stretch. Zack loves the corner three and when he’s open he’s a good bet to knock it down. I don’t think he is quite as good at creating a good look for himself as someone like Stu Douglass but he did shoot a higher percentage than Stu.
• Hustle Plays
  It’s hard to quantify something like this but there is no denying that Zack has a nose for the basketball. It seemed like Zack was always the first one to a 50-50 ball or would manage to tip out a rebound despite giving up half a foot to the opponent. These hustle plays are the reason that Zack led the team in minutes per game during conference play (13th in the conference, 2nd highest average for a freshman) and continues to see the floor despite match-up problems.
• Mental Toughness
  This is a bit hard to distinguish from the hustle plays but Zack was tough. He had the attitude that he wasn’t going to take crap from anyone and he was going to leave it all on the floor. He begged to go back in the game after Alex Legion bloodied him and he was a key cog in both of Michigan’s miracle comebacks. Not to mention the fact that most 6-foot-4 freshmen don’t play 30+ minutes per game in the most physical conference in the country at the power forward spot. Zack has the attitude that the coaching staff loves and I have no doubt that he will become a leader on this team.

The Bad

• Versatility
  Similar to Stu Douglass, Zack needs to add a few more elements to his game. Right now on the offensive end he isn’t much more than a spot up shooter. Zack showed flashes of a little bit of mid-range game here and there but it really isn’t in his repertoire. He doesn’t need to be Manny Harris but if he can do just a little more he will be much more dangerous.
• Physical Ability
  It’s hard to point to negatives on the production side when you look at Zack. He basically did about everything that you could expect. The bottom line is that his ceiling is limited by his height and athleticism. If he was a little taller, faster, or quicker you would have a completely different player. Instead he is stuck at 6-foot-5 — hopefully with some work in the S&C program he can continue to improve athletically.
• Position
  Zack can probably play the 2, 3, or 4 on this team but he probably isn’t a good fit for any of them. The mantra goes: you are what you can guard. Right now I’m not sure Zack can guard any of those positions that well. He’s too short to guard the four and probably too slow to guard the two or three. This is going to be the biggest problem for Zack going forward — where does he play?

Shining Moments

• vs. Duke – 14 points, 26 minutes, 4-7 3pt FG
  This was Zack’s coming out party with four three point makes on the biggest stage. The most important shots were the back-to-back threes that turned a three point deficit into a lead that Michigan would never relinquish. DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris carried the team that day but Zack Novak gave them the lift that pushed them over the top.
• vs. Minnesota – 36 minutes, 18 points, 6 rebounds, 6-10 3pt fg, and 2 assists
  Michigan was in a familiar position, their backs were up against the wall and Minnesota was headed to Ann Arbor. A loss would have ended likely Michigan’s NCAA tournament chances and Minnesota was no slouch. Zack came to play and knocked down a season high six three point shots for a game high 18 points in a smooth Michigan win.

The Future

Where does Zack play down the line? I would assume that he will get some minutes backing up Manny next year at the three, 5-10 minutes per game. I would also assume that he still plays some four, especially against smaller teams, maybe 15 minutes per game. There is also the chance that Zack could play the two-guard where he played for the first half of last year. Essentially his versatility in terms of position is his greatest strength as well as his greatest weakness.

Zack seems unlikely to play 30+ minutes per game next year but I just have a hard time picturing the coaches keeping him off the floor. I don’t care what influx of talent Beilein brings in, it will be hard to knock Zack out of the starting line up and at least the rotation. It seems like there is always a spot for hustle, heart, and shooting in the John Beilein system.

Final Grade

Some people were a little surprised that I only gave Stu a B- but I think when everything plays out it will make sense. I don’t want to be accused of grade inflation and while I mentioned expectations in the first post but it’s more or less a comprehensive measure and expectations are just one part.

Final Grade: B. Even though he didn’t produce in the scoring column every night I don’t think this team wins nearly as many games without him in the lineup. Zack essentially was expected to be a spot contributor at best and by the end of the year you couldn’t pull him off the court.

The Numbers:

The Good:

• Passing
  Stu is vastly underrated as a passer. From the first time I saw him play in the Michigan jersey I was impressed with how confident he was with the ball, especially passing it. I also think that Stu is the best player on the team at feeding the post. The numbers back Stu up as a good, not great passer. His assist to turnover ratio was 1.7 to 1, 16th in the Big Ten, but his assist numbers weren’t quite so high with 2.1 assists per game but that translates out to 4 assists per 40 minutes, the same as Grady and Lee, and his assist percentage of 19.3% is also in the same ballpark as Michigan’s point guards. Stu definitely has room to grow in this regard but he definitely displayed the ability to pass the ball.
• Three Point Shooting
  The percentage isn’t necessarily gaudy at 33.5% but it’s not bad either. In the “hot” games he turned everyone into believers with his quick and pure stroke. The shot looks good all the time and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big jump in Stu’s shooting percentage next year.
• Defense
  If I wrote this mid-way through the season I probably would have listed defense as a weakness. Stu improved by leaps and bounds on the defensive end of the court over the course of the year. He still has a long ways to go as an on-the-ball defender but he is one of the best in terms of fighting through screens and playing defense off the ball.

The Bad:

• Consistency
  Stu showed flashes of brilliance shooting the ball but really struggled with consistency. A lot of this has to do with being a freshman and being asked to do a lot from the get-go, as well as his role changing pretty dramatically a couple times throughout the season. Stu had 10 games without a three pointer, 10 with only one, and 15 with two or more.  This is a little bit too inconsistent in my book, if Stu could cut down on the 0-5, 1-7, 1-5 type games he could be very solid.
• Versatility
  Stu made two baskets and four free throws in the ten games where he didn’t record a three point field goal. He needs to develop at least one more key cog to his game whether it is a mid-range jump shot or the ability to drive the lane and maybe get to the lane. Adding another dimension to his game has to be the number one priority for Stu because when the three point shot wasn’t falling last year, Stu was very ineffective.
• Decision Making
  Stu clearly has ability to pass and shoot but he still needs to learn what is a good shot and what is a good pass. The alley-oops, three point shots from 6 feet behind the line, and bounce passes between three people need to stop. I give him a break because he is a freshman but if Beilein’s facial expressions say anything about how he really feels, you can bet that he let’s Stu know what’s a good decision.

The Future:

Point guard. There are a growing number of options at the two-guard on this roster and if Stu wants to keep playing big minutes he’s going to need to play the point. He’s not going to be a full time point guard but he needs to be able to play the position for 10-15 minutes per game. I think you definitely still want to play him at the two because that allows him to come off screens and get good looks from three point range. However Laval Lucas-Perry, Zack Novak, and Matt Vogrich will all be vying for playing time at the two-guard so being able to play two positions would be a great way for Stu to differentiate himself from the pack.

Grade: I’ve been struggling with figuring out a means to “grade” players in these report cards. I have basically two sides: grading versus expectation versus some kind of all-encompassing grade of production.

There were essentially zero expectations for Stu headed into the year. He was supposed to be a shooter but likely a ways off from being a contributor — after all he was just a 2-star recruit when he committed to Michigan. Stu also hit some huge shots this year, UConn and UCLA stand out, and his confidence continued to grow over the course of the year. Stu slipped out of the starting lineup in January but I really think that he started to believe that he belonged as the year progressed.

B-. Stu showed that he has the ability to fit into this team and showed flashes of great play but the lack of consistency and versatility are holding him back.

The only word that comes to mind when trying to explain the last decade of Michigan basketball is agony. There was a good mix of flat out awful seasons mixed with those where we came just so close. I think Michigan basketball of late can be summed up neatly with the words of Heywood Broun:

The tragedy of life is not that a man loses, but that he almost wins.

The entire athletic department has been in a bit of a tailspin recently. Rich Rodriguez and John Beilein’s debut seasons at Michigan did not go well by anyone’s count. Beilein went 10-22 and Rodriguez 3-9 and both seasons were called some of “the worst ever” by fans and media alike. Throw in a losing streak to Ohio State, a win for Michigan State at Michigan Stadium, and the end of a bowl streak that many figured would go on forever and you are left with a frustrated fan base.

No current students have even experienced a November win over Ohio State. These angered fans have needed something to grasp but every one of them would have told you that there is no way that the basketball team would be the one to provide it.

The basketball team was expected to struggle again. Ekpe Udoh had transferred and the incoming class consisted of a bunch of guys who were overlooked by recruiting services and frankly other high-major programs. Optimistic fans thought that a .500 season would be possible thanks to John Beilein’s coaching ability in itself but anything more would be a long shot at best.

These fourteen kids had a different idea. Somehow a roster that looked like it belonged at the Island of Misfit Toys turned themselves into an NCAA tournament team. They overachieved in every sense of the word and finally gave Michigan fans something to cheer about — Michigan basketball is relevant again.

The first glimmer of hope came back at Madison Square Garden when Michigan managed to knock off UCLA — DeShawn Sims’ dunk off a backdoor pass from Anthony Wright is definitely one of the top 5 moments of the year. Most people, myself included, thought that the upset was more likely a sign of what was to come down the road. But Michigan parlayed that win into something to hang their hat on — from that day on they believed in the system and themselves.

The home win over Duke was Bill Martin’s watershed moment and it was definitely one of Michigan’s best performances of the year. Talk of a realistic shot at the NCAA tournament was thrown around, but the heartbreak of the last 11 years caused many Michigan fans to be reluctant to count their chickens before they hatched.

The Duke win was monumental but in the end I am more in awe of the way this team stuck together in the toughest of times. The pair of 20-point comeback overtime wins against Savannah State and Indiana really stand out to me. No team is going to play their best every night out over the course of a 30+ game season but good teams figure out a way to win. This team also responded with their best performances when their backs were against the wall.

The final shining moment of the regular season to me was the road win against Minnesota. It is so hard to win on the road against good teams in the Big Ten and Michigan has been absolutely terrible on the road for years. But with their season on the line and facing a double digit deficit in the second half Michigan came together and left Minneapolis with a victory.

The common denominator in every one of Michigan’s big wins was heart and toughness, something that Daniel Horton recently said was missing on Michigan teams of the past that just missed the NCAA tournament. Beilein constantly stresses team chemistry and its importance is clear when you watch the way this team plays and the way he coaches. Talent can only get you so far, when you’re down double digits on the road with 17,000 fans pitted against you, the only thing that can hold you together is team chemistry and heart.

Michigan fans aren’t stupid, they noticed this team’s heart over the course of the year. This team is almost impossible not to like. There are no police reports, academic issues, or embarrassing stories to worry about. Instead there are stories about Anthony Wright giving a young fan tickets to the Big Ten tournament, a pair of walk-ons who have become team captains and the root of Michigan’s resurgence, and a pair of kids in Detroit who managed to hold off outside pressure (more than most would probably believe) and attend the University of Michigan.

The few thousand Michigan fans that made it to Kansas City last weekend realized just how magical this season had been. The pair of games in Kansas City were the reward for everyone involved in the program from top to bottom: coaches, players, managers, administrators, and of course the fans. As a fan there was no way that I could miss Michigan running out of the tunnel in the NCAA tournament. The emotions at Crisler Arena on Selection Sunday and in Kansas City on Thursday were more than just the joy of victory — it was pride, relief, and happiness but mostly a validation of the suffering of the last decade.

This definitely isn’t the final goal but there is no doubt that this season was a successful one — when was the last time that you could say that about a Michigan basketball season? This year is a statement and a building block for a program that is headed in the right direction.

The loss of CJ Lee, Dave Merritt, and Jevohn Shepherd will hurt but this team returns a vast majority of its scoring and rebounding. The near future looks exciting; Michigan returns most of their contributors and brings in a few quality recruits. It is no doubt just as important for recruiting — John Beilein can go into a 17 year olds living room and show him film from last year’s NCAA tournament win — no more “leaps of faith” are necessary.

There is no denying the fact that this program is in great hands and that finally, Michigan fans have something to cheer about.

Michigan fought until the end but Blake Griffin and Oklahoma were just too much. Michigan hung tough in the first half despite Manny Harris picking up his second foul early and sitting for the last fifteen minutes. Michigan was able to stay close mostly thanks to an unlikely hero, Anthony Wright. Wright had 12 points in the first half and Michigan was only down one at the break. Oklahoma managed to pull ahead in the second half and hold Michigan off despite numerous comeback attempts.

Looking at the four factors the biggest difference won’t be surprising to anyone that watched the game: free throws. Oklahoma got to the line and Michigan did not. There were only four team fouls called on Oklahoma in the first 19 minutes and 56 seconds of the second half compared to 17 called on Michigan. It seemed like every 50-50 call went Oklahoma’s way but you just have to play the game. Michigan did an admirable job on the offensive glass despite Oklahoma’s size advantage. But in the end Michigan turned the ball over a little too much and just didn’t make quite enough shots from three point range. There was a stretch at the start of the second half when Michigan just couldn’t buy a three point basket. Oklahoma didn’t shoot a very high percentage from long range but they made just enough big three pointers to keep Michigan at arms length.

There is no denying that Michigan went down fighting despite being physically overmatched. They battled in the first half and even when Oklahoma started to pull away in the second half they never quit. The late run spear headed by CJ Lee was symbolic of the team’s never die attitude this whole season. There were many times that fans and media wrote this team off, claiming they had no shot at the NCAA tournament, but they always proved them wrong.

I’m not going to go through a whole “player bullets” but I wanted to mention a couple people.

• Anthony Wright played the best game of his life and it was great to see. Hopefully he can build off this in the off season.
• Zack Gibson also strung together a couple very solid games down the stretch, bringing more hustle than we have seen before.
• The freshmen just couldn’t find their range today, if just one of the three were hitting their shots it would have been huge. Stu and Zack had great years but they just couldn’t find their stroke, 3 of 15 with 4 turnovers combined.
• CJ, Dave, and Jevohn went out fighting and it will be sad to see them go. Those kids certainly are lacking in talent but their heart is what carried this team down the stretch.
• Also, Mark Snyder is reporting that Manny and DeShawn plan to stay.

The countdown until November begins. I’ll have plenty more of the next couple days including some more reaction on the season.

Basics:
Who: Michigan (21-13) vs. Oklahoma (28-5)
Where: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
When: Saturday, March 21st, 5:50 PM EST
TV: CBS
Spread: Oklahoma by 6.5
Preview: Stat Sheet, U-M KenPom Profile, Oklahoma KenPom Profile
Radio: MGoBlue

Michigan’s reward for beating Clemson is a date with the best player in the country, Blake Griffin. The 6-foot-10 physical specimen averages 22.1 points and 14.3 rebounds per game. I’m sure if you have tuned into ESPN at all this year you are familiar with Blake and how he can dominate a game while at the same time fascinating fans with his breathtaking dunks. Frankly, I don’t see any way that Michigan can hold Blake under 20 and 20. They key is stopping everyone else.

So who else is there? Oklahoma is not a particularly deep team, here are their main contributors:

• Austin Johnson: The 6-foot-3 point guard has lots of length and averages 8.4 ppg, 3.9 apg, and 2.9 rpg while knocking down 34% of his triples.
• Willie Warren: The 6-foot-4 freshman was a McDonalds All American and there is no doubt that he can play. Warren averages 14.7 points, 3.1 assists, and 2.2 rebounds per game. Warren has a great combination of strength and athleticism and he also hits three point shots at near 38% clip.
• Tony Crocker: Crocker is the 6-foot-6 wing man for Sooners who for some reason always wears long sleeves. Crocker averages 9.4 points and 3.3 rebounds per game.
• Taylor Griffin: The elder Griffin is a very similar player to his little brother except he is about 3 inches shorter. Taylor will be a tough match-up for Michigan at the four and I would expect that he has a pretty decent day as well.
• Bench: Juan Pattillo, Cade Davis, and Omar Leary make up the Oklahoma bench and none of them are necessarily impact players off the bench. Pattillo is probably the best and he is a wing forward who averages 7 points per game.

The first key for Michigan is to stop Willie Warren and the rest of the Oklahoma backcourt. If Warren and Griffin are clicking it’s going to be a long night but if Michigan can shut down the Oklahoma backcourt like they did against Clemson then they have a shot.

Oklahoma lost four of their last six games before the NCAA tournament after the 25-1 start so they aren’t unbeatable. The question is what those teams (Texas, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma St.) did to earn the victory. Blake was limited by a concussion against Texas and Kansas so the key games to focus on are Missouri and Oklahoma St.

Missouri beat the Sooners with turnovers. Oklahoma turned the ball over on 32.4% of their possessions and that was enough for a 9 point Missouri win despite Oklahoma rebounding 50% of their misses. Oklahoma State also got outrebounded but managed a one point home win.

The common denominator in these two losses was poor three point shooting by Oklahoma. The Sooners shot 4 of 18 and 3 of 19 from three point range in their two late season losses. If they aren’t hitting their three point shots they are a beatable team. On the season they shoot about 35.6% from long range, which is a shade over the national average, but they appear to be wildly inconsistent.

Oklahoma’s Strengths

• Two point shooting. Oklahoma shoots a ridiculous 56.2% inside the arc which is no doubt thanks to Blake Griffin. This high 2-point field goal percentage also gives then an eFG% of 55.2 which is 5th in the nation.
• Getting to the line. Oklahoma’s free throw rate (FTA/FGA) is 47.3% which ranks fifth nationally. This is mostly thanks to Blake Griffin but Willie Warren and Taylor Griffin also do a good job of getting to the stripe.
• Rebounding. This is clearly a strength but I would have thought their rebounding percentages would be higher. They rebound 36.5% of their own misses (52nd) and 68.4% of their opponents’ misses (122nd) — these numbers are certainly solid but as a team they don’t appear to be as good on the offensive glass as Clemson.

Oklahoma’s Weaknesses

• Turnovers. Oklahoma only forces turnovers on 17.8% of their opponents possessions (313th nationally) so Michigan should be able to hold onto the ball. They also turn the ball over on 19.5% of their own so maybe the 1-3-1 could frustrate them a little.
• Free throw shooting. Oklahoma shoots only 67.9% from the line and more importantly Griffin only shoots 59% at the stripe.
• Depth. Oklahoma’s bench plays only 20.8% of their minutes (331st)

Intangibles

• Conferences. Oklahoma played only game against a Big Ten school all year, an overtime win over Purdue. Michigan hasn’t faced the Big XII all year. I’m not sure how the two conferences will match-up but I know Michigan State handled Kansas and Oklahoma State.
• Coaching. The coaching match-up has to benefit Michigan. Jeff Capel is a very good coach but this is John Beilein’s bread and butter — the NCAA tournament.
• Rest. Michigan has been better all season long when they are playing on a lot of rest and the numbers are a bit scary the other way. I guess the good thing is that Oklahoma is playing on light rest as well.

Pomeroy and Vegas both like Oklahoma by about six points, but at least Pomeroy gives us a 27% chance. It is definitely not much but at this point all you can ask for is a chance. Beilein has been here before, taking on a 2 seed in second round. Back then it was Wake Forest and Chris Paul and West Virginia was outrebounded but they prevailed in a double overtime thriller.

Thoughts, predictions, and in-game discussion belong in the comments. Go Blue! Burn the ships, even if the story isn’t true.

Pre-Game Reading:

• Beilein’s Long-Range Plan Gives Michigan Quick Payoff
  NY Times on Michigan and the three point shot
• Court Vision with C.J. Lee: Unbelievable Experience, Challenges Still Lie Ahead
  CJ Lee blogs about his experience in Kansas City
• Boys’ basketball: Windward is Division V champion
  Congrats to Darius Morris on the state championship. Morris had a game high 25 points and Windward finished the season 29-6. I’ll have a big recruiting update next week. Video below…
• McLimans, the basketball player, gets Michigan’s attention
  Why not throw in another recruiting link
• Audio: Beilein, Michigan players talk Oklahoma ($)
  Peedi lets the people know how well Eric Puls simulates Blake Griffin in practice