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I was among the many people who ripped Jay Bilas for his criticism of Manny Harris after the Purdue game last year. But Bilas had some kind words about Manny Harris in a Sports Illustrated column by Richard Deitsch while talking about his relationships with coaches and players and how it effects the way he does his job.

“I have situations where I’ve second-guessed a coach on the air and I try not to even consider what the coaches’ feelings will be about it. There are times in dealing with coaches and players you have a relationship with and dealing with comments you get off the record. That’s where you hope your best judgment comes in. I worked with Manny Harris of Michigan two summers ago. I have not worked with or been around a better kid. Last year, he was involved in an elbowing incident and I was pretty hard on him. I could have sat there and said, ‘Great kid, let’s dismiss it,’ but I didn’t. I said what I thought and I had a lot of critical comments from Michigan fans. But I didn’t know any other way to handle it. I worked with Manny again this summer and we joked about it. Adults don’t handle that situation better than he handled it. I wish I had the poise that kid has.

It obviously speaks worlds about Manny Harris’ maturity and personality. I’m all for speaking your mind on air and I have no doubt that is what Bilas did but that doesn’t change my mind that he was wrong about the play. Bilas also gave Harris and Evan Turner some praise in his ESPN column for posting triple doubles.

Other Notes

• Per StatSheet, Michigan has the 3rd youngest team in the Big Ten (by average class year per minute played). Iowa and Indiana are the only younger teams while Ohio State is the oldest.
• Mike Rothstein chatted with Gary Grant about Manny Harris and his triple double.
• Bringing two canned goods to the game Friday gets you in the door for one dollar.
• John Gasaway is the voice of reason, saying that we shouldn’t fret over early season ugly wins.
• Northwestern faces Butler tonight (8 pm BTN) in what could have been a huge statement game for the Cats, instead it will more likely be a demonstration of how they can cope with out Coble.  The Geeks have a preview.
• Programming Note: Posting has been a little light this week and I apologize. Should have plenty throughout the end of the week including an early Old Spice preview as well as the necessary Houston Baptist preview.

Villanova by the Numbers has been investigating the effect that moving the three point line back a foot had on last year’s college basketball season. Nova by the Numbers focused on how Luke Winn’s predictions from a little over a year ago look in retrospect. Winn’s hypothesis was that the biggest winners from the move would be teams that don’t rely on the three point shot or defend the three point line well. The losers would be perimeter oriented teams that shoot a lot of threes and teams that make a low percentage of their three point shots in general.

The hypothesis makes so much sense that it almost seems rudimentary. Judging by Michigan’s 2007-2008 statistics, they should have been negatively affected by the move (and that’s probably an understatement). The 2007-2008 Michigan team was one of the worst in the country at making (31.2%) and defending (38.1%) three point shots yet they still shot 40.7% of their field goal attempts from behind the arc.

So how did Michigan deal with the move? They shot even more three point shots at a slightly higher percentage. (They also made a dramatic improvement in three point defense — their opponents shot 31.1% compared to 38.1% in 2008.)

Michigan kept on chucking and somehow found success, going from 10 to 21 wins in only a season.  The three point shot is obviously a staple of the Beilein offense.  Therefore it’s not surprising that Michigan was more reliant on the three point shot than any other NCAA tournament team.

Top 10 3FGA/FGA for NCAA Tournament Teams (National Rank to the left, NCAA seed in brackets)

  7 Michigan[10] (B10)               47.9
 11 Arizona St.[6] (P10)             45.3
 13 Butler[9] (Horz)                 45.2
 15 Portland St.[13] (BSky)          44.8
 26 Oklahoma St.[8] (B12)            41.3
 29 Chattanooga[16] (SC)             41.2
 38 Akron[13] (MAC)                  40.0
 40 Mississippi St.[13] (SEC)        39.7
 54 Utah[5] (MWC)                    38.4
 58 American[14] (Pat)               38.1

That list is an eye opener. There are very few high major teams in that group, only Arizona St., Oklahoma St., and Mississippi St, and none of the top ten made it passed the second round.

This clearly isn’t a strategy that is replicated often with success at the high major level. Of those four high major teams, Michigan’s 33.4% three point shooting percentage was the worst among the group by a pretty significant margin. It’s clear that perimeter oriented teams were adversely affected by the three point move.

Nova By the Numbers points out that three of the ten interior oriented offenses that Winn identified before the season ended up in the Final Four (UNC, UConn, and Michigan State). Perimeter oriented offenses didn’t perform so well but I’m not sure John Beilein is too concerned as his tournament success is well documented. Despite the success of interior oriented teams, John Beilein’s teams still perform better against their seed than any other college coach.

Michigan’s three point shooting numbers are even more shocking when you realize that Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims combined to take 64% of Michigan’s 2 point field goals. Stu Douglass (80.3%) and Zack Novak (77.8%) took the highest percentage of their shots from long range on the team with more than 3 out of every 4 field goal attempts coming from behind the arc. Seven players on the Michigan roster took 65% or more of their field goal attempts from three point range. Only Jevohn Shepherd, Zack Gibson, DeShawn Sims, and Manny Harris took more than half of their shots inside the arc.

I’ve mentioned high variance strategies in the past (explained here) and there is no doubt that relying on the three point shot qualifies as a high variance strategy. To most in the college basketball world, three point shooting is typically thought of as an underdog  strategy marred with desperation. The common thought is that truly great teams will pound the ball inside rather than shoot away.  However, John Beilein’s best teams actually appear to shoot more three point shots than his teams that struggle.

 Michigan      2009 21-14 (7)      47.9
 Michigan      2008 10-22 (42)     40.7
 West Virginia 2007 27-9  (5)      49.0
 West Virginia 2006 22-11 (2)      51.4
 West Virginia 2005 24-11 (7)      45.9
 West Virginia 2004 17-14 (25)     40.1
 West Virginia 2003 14-15          37.6

John Beilein coached teams play their best when they favor a strategy that is generally frowned upon in the basketball world. The numbers tell the whole story last year: Michigan succeeded by shooting a lot of threes (7th) even while making a low percentage (195th).

The question is what happens going forward — does Michigan continue to shoot so many three point shots or do they revert toward a more traditional style of play. Looking at John Beilein’s history, it is hard to imagine Michigan relying on the three ball any less than they did this year.

The first place potential change would come from would be the incoming freshmen class. Of the four scholarship players and two walk-ons, three players would be described as shooters first and foremost (Vogrich, McLimans, and Bartelstein). Jordan Morgan gives Michigan a big guy that they were lacking last year, but after knee surgery his impact is questionable. Eso Akunne is without a position, but he possesses a well rounded versatile game.

The one guy who has to potential to redefine the offense is Darius Morris. Darius has the ability to create for himself and others in a way that none of the point guards on last year’s roster could. If Darius can provide a threat to drive and score it would go a long ways toward making Michigan’s offense multi-dimensional and giving Michigan three guys who are a threat to score inside the arc rather than just two.

However, relying on a freshman point guard to reshape an offense is probably too much to ask for. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Michigan shoot over 50% of their shots from long range next year but they need to improve their shooting percentage. When you shoot more three point shots than just about every other high major team in the country, you’re going to want to rank higher than 195th in percentage made.

The three point shooting issue is one that has confronted Beilein teams for years and there is no firm answer about what is right and what is wrong. For example, the three point shot was the reason Michigan trailed by 20 points versus Indiana at Assembly Hall (3-18 first half) but it was also what enabled the comeback (7-17 second half). The success that Michigan had last year despite not shooting a very high percentage says one of two things: the strategy really works or Michigan got very lucky.

The topics for discussion on this subject are endless, so let’s hear your thoughts in the comments and then maybe we can revisit this subject in a couple weeks with some follow up.

Credit goes to the commenters on this one, the UMHoops 2008-2009 Play of the Year Voting. There are ten nominees, I was originally going to keep out longer stretches but I threw them in there anyways. I guess this is more or less a “moment of the year” rather than a specific play.

The nominees are sorted in chronological order and you can vote at the bottom of the post.

Stu Douglass Three Pointer versus UCLA

DeShawn Sims Backdoor Dunk versus UCLA

DeShawn Sims Buzzer Beater versus Savannah State

Zack Novak Back-to-Back Threes versus Duke

Manny Harris ‘Airplane Dunk’ versus Duke

CJ Lee and Laval Lucas-Perry Save Michigan Down the Stretch at Assembly Hall

Stu Douglass Steal and Over the Head Pass versus Purdue

Laval Lucas-Perry Three Point Barrage at Minnesota

DeShawn Sims Scores First Seven Baskets vs. Iowa

Manny Harris “And One” versus Clemson

Vote

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Previously: Stu Douglass (B-), Zack Novak (B), Laval Lucas-Perry (C), Manny Harris (A)

The Good

• Scoring
  DeShawn showed us that he really is the scorer that he was recruited to be. His freshman year was wrecked by family tragedy and his sophomore year saw him live almost exclusively on the perimeter. This year he was forced to the paint — more so  by necessity than choice. Luckily, DeShawn was up to the challenge. He attempted 60 less three pointers this year, but managed to lead the Big Ten in field goals made while making 224 of his 444 attempts (50.5%, 53.3 eFG%).
• Rebounding
  Because he was forced to play down low, it was crucial that Sims attack the glass. Sims averaged 6.8 rpg (5th in conference) and was tied with Manny Harris for the leading rebounder on the team. He struggled at times in conference play on the glass and his average steadily declined but that was mostly a product of dealing with better rebounding teams in the Big Ten.
• Improvement
  Peedi improved in just about every facet of the game. This should be expected I suppose but as we saw under Tommy Amaker, improvement should never be taken for granted. Even beyond the numbers, Sims looks more confident within the offense and he continues to find his niche.

The Bad

• Consistency
  Sims eliminated the Georgetown-esque 1 point performances that we saw in his sophomore year but he still struggled to bring a consistent effort night in and night out. Part of the problem is that his play was so spectacular at times  that you wonder why he wasn’t able to do it every time out.
• Drifting
  All too often Sims would drift to the perimeter instead of focusing his offense in the interior. It is critical that Sims plays inside out. He has to start inside where he can build his confidence before he starts launching longer jumpers.

Shining Moments

• vs. Duke – 28 points (10-16 shooting), 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal
  The Duke game was the defining moment of Michigan’s season and DeShawn Sims was the star. DeShawn scored the ball inside and out while controlling the glass despite being a non-factor in the first Duke/Michigan match-up that took place only a couple weeks earlier.
• vs. Purdue - 29 points (13-16 shooting), 5 rebounds
  Another glimpse of just how dominant DeShawn can be. He took the ball right at JaJuan Johnson, who was eventually forced to the bench with foul trouble, and scored inside all night long. This one was an absolute must-win for Michigan’s tournament chances and DeShawn came to play.
• vs. Iowa – 27 points (12-16 shooting), 2 rebounds, 3 steals
  DeShawn Sims single handily punched Michigan’s NCAA tournament ticket. Michigan went to Sims early and often and just sat back and watched as he made his first eight shots from the field and simply couldn’t be stopped.

The Future

DeShawn has played a dramatically different role in each of his three seasons at Michigan. His freshman year he was a seldom used back-up power forward. His sophomore year he played the “four” in Beilein’s offense which saw him floating around on the perimeter and launching three point shots. And finally, this year he played the “five” where he was almost exclusively an interior player.

The question is where does he go next year? There is a much larger stable of interior players next year but I’m not sure any of them have the ability to score in the post the way DeShawn does. I think we will most likely see a mix of DeShawn at the four and five. Against bigger lineups we will see him play the four along side someone like Ben Cronin while against smaller lineups we will see him down low in hopes that he can exploit a mis-match.

Final Grade: A

DeShawn deserves nothing but an ‘A’. Politics may have forced him off of the All-conference first team, but statistically he had a spectacular season. He was a top five scorer and rebounder and posted an effective field goal percentage of 53.3%. Not to mention the fact that he did all of this while playing down low in arguably the most physical conference in the nation at only 6-foot-8.

Did he have some disappointing performances? Definitely, but over the course of a season, who doesn’t? The improvement that he made in between each of his three years at Michigan has been remarkable. If he can make similar strides before his senior year we should be expecting another special year.

The basketball banquet was tonight and there weren’t many surprises in terms of who brought home hardware.

Manny Harris took down his second MVP award (guess he was deserving of the ‘A’ I gave him on his report card) and DeShawn Sims won most improved player. Good luck finding anyone to argue with the leadership award being given to CJ Lee and David Merritt. Frankly, there isn’t much to argue over with any of the winners.

According to the Michigan basketball twitter page, every player on the team also received a “special watch” in honor of making the NCAA tournament. They are tweeting live from the event so it’s worth a follow.

Here is the full list of award winners: