Game 4: Michigan vs. Oregon Preview

Dylan Burkhardt
on
Basics
Who: Oregon (3-0) at No. 22 Michigan (3-0) Oregon-logo[1]
Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
When: 9:30 p.m., Monday, November 24th, 2014
TV: ESPN3
Radio: 950 AM, 102.9 FM

Eight months ago, Michigan and Oregon were both in the BMO Harris Bradley Center playing some of the most important basketball of their seasons. The Ducks had rattled off an impressive 24 win season and were getting set to face Wisconsin while Michigan would beat Wofford and Texas along its eventual path to the Elite Eight.

Both programs appeared to be trending in the right direction at the time, but now neither program looks the same. Much has been made about Michigan’s attrition – the Wolverines lost three players to the NBA, one to graduation and one to transfer – but Oregon lost ten players from its roster last season.

Dominic Artis, Damyean Dotson and Brandon Austin were dismissed from the team amidst sexual assault allegations. Starters Jason Calliste and Johnathan Loyd both graduated and two others, Ben Carter and A.J. Lapray, opted to transfer. Highly touted recruits Ray Kasongo and JaQuan Lyle weren’t admitted into school and two others, Elgin Cook and Jalil Abdul-Bassit, were charged with shoplifting but are still on the roster.

When you only have 13 scholarships to give, ten departures is almost unheard of, but despite all of the roster turnover and ugly headlines, the Ducks have hit the ground running this season. They blew out Detroit by 17 points after being tied at halftime and also beat Coppin State (107-65) and Toledo (78-68). Like Michigan, this will be the Ducks’ first game against high-major competition.

The Ducks

The first thing that stands out about Oregon’s statistical profile is tempo. The Ducks are averaging 71 possessions per game to open the 2014-15 season and have ranked in the top-75 nationally in pace for the last three seasons. Oregon had the 11th best offense in the country last season and is already showing signs of being formidable on that side of the ball this season. The Ducks tout a 54.9 eFG%, 15.4% turnover rate and 41.6% offensive rebounding rate through three games this season and have scored over 1.10 points per possession in each of their first three games.

Defensively, the Ducks do a terrific job of defending the rim. Oregon opponents are shooting just 32% inside the arc, but a sizzling 41% from outside. Perhaps that’s just a sign of early season play, as last year the Ducks did a great job of the defending the three-point line and were below average defensively inside the arc. Through three games, Oregon has been much better at avoiding fouls. The Ducks were ranked 302nd in defensive free throw rate last season, giving up 47.8 free throw attempts per 100 field goal attempts, but have improved their defensive free throw rate to just 23.5% this season.

Personnel

Joseph Young led the Ducks in scoring last season at 19 points per game and is averaging 26 points per contest through three games this season. He shot 53% on threes and 42% on threes for a 56.9 eFG% last season and has a 60/40/60 shooting line this season. He shot just 1-of-12 from three-point range against Detroit, but he was 9-of-13 in Oregon’s other two games.

6-foot-6, 206 pound forward Elgin Cook is averaging 12.7 points and 6.7 points per game and does most of his offensive work around the basket. One-time Michigan recruiting target Dillon Brooks is also averaging 12.7 points per game. The 6-foot-6 freshman was originally a member of the class of 2015 before reclassifying and enrolling a year early at Oregon. Cook and Brooks should both pose a unique challenge for freshman Kameron Chatman and also Zak Irvin, who has added significant strength to deal with match-ups like these.

6-foot-7 forward Dwayne Benjamin is a rebounding force, but he’s shooting just 33% on twos, 29% on threes and 36% on free throws this season. He platoons at the five position with Jordan Bell, a 6-foot-7 190 pound freshman, who averages nine rebounds per game off the bench. Bell is the better finisher inside (10-of-14 on twos), but both players have tallied high shot block totals in early games.

Freshman point guard Ahmaad Rorie has started from day one, but hasn’t been much of a scorer and is shooting just 29% on twos and 30% on threes. Jalil Abdul-Bassit is one of Oregon’s few returning players. He barely played last season, but is a career 43% three-point shooter and has to be respected from the perimeter.

Keys

  • Exploit tempo: Michigan’s transition offense has been lethal for the last several seasons. Early returns are that this team can be equally dangerous in transition with Derrick Walton, Zak Irvin and Caris LeVert pushing the tempo. The key for Michigan will be to control the pace of the game overall, but exploit the Ducks with easy baskets and transition threes when the opportunity presents itself.
  • Stop Joseph Young: Young is the focal point to Oregon’s offense, and Michigan’s entire defensive game plan will be centered on stopping him. We’ve rarely seen Michigan out-and-out deny someone the ball on defense, but Young might be a worthy candidate. Young can score from anywhere on the floor and has no problem getting his shots up. At first glance he looks like a chucker, but his numbers are remarkably efficient for his style of play.
  • Stop the spread: Similar to Detroit, Oregon will put a lot of players on the floor that aren’t true big men. Oregon’s rotation doesn’t have anyone taller than 6-foot-7, which means that the Wolverine big men will likely be stretched out defensive and put in some very difficult situations. Michigan struggled with this against Detroit and freshman big DJ Wilson will need to have a much better game as his length and skillset matches up perfectly against this sort of roster.

Bottom Line

Beilein is 2-0 in his career against Dana Altman with wins over Creighton in 2005 at West Virginia and 2009 with Michigan. Ken Pomeroy projects Michigan to come away with a 71-69 win in a 68 possession game. Next up, the Wolverines will face the winner or loser of Villanova/VCU (7:00 p.m.) on Tuesday night.

  • Truth

    Great preview. Should be the first real test for the young team. Not a true road game, but probably the biggest stage the freshmen have played on thus far in their short careers.

  • Mattski

    Anything could happen, and it might not mean that much in terms of the success of either team’s season. But should be fun to watch.

  • Truth

    PS, ESPN and MGOBLUE are saying the game starts at 9:00 pm, not 9:30 pm. (Although I suppose that the actual start time could depend on the outcome of an earlier game).

    • Adam

      game will begin 25-30 minutes after the conclusion of the first game. Seeing many of the other preseason tourneys, i’d guess the start time will be closer to 930.

  • AADave

    Should be a good game and early test for Michigan. Sucks that it’s only on ESPN3.

    • sternum23

      If you’re in the Ann Arbor area, Buffalo Wild Wings and World of Beer both said they’re showing the game.

      • Sarah

        Do you know which one? I called one yesterday I think downtown one and they said they weren’t showing it.

        • sternum23

          The one on State said they were showing it but not in HD. That’s last I heard

  • Cory

    I’ll be in the house in Brooklyn tonight! GO BLUE!

  • Michigan4

    Wasn’t mentioned here but Oregon is also without projected starting center Michael Chandler. At 6’10”, he was by far the largest and most effective interior option.

  • Chezaroo

    Man, they can claim even more roster turnover than we can! Won’t be surprised at all if a lot of the veterans play the majority of the second half again. This is a winnable game and if the Frosh struggle the small lineup could prevail. Interested to see how Brooks does for them.

  • Lebron James

    They better bring it tonight, I know a loss in the beginning of the year isn’t the end of the world but I just hope the frosh can hopefully develop and step up soon so we don’t have to rely on Max B and Spike every night to be main contributors and play the entire second half. Regardless I am looking forward to tonights game Go Blue!