ESPN Mock Draft: Burke 6, McGary 12, Robinson 15

Dylan Burkhardt

Chad Ford released his first mock draft of 2013 this afternoon and Michigan players rate quite favorable. Trey Burke (No. 6), Mitch McGary (No. 12) and Glenn Robinson III (No. 15) are all slotted in the top 15 picks of Ford’s draft.

No. 12. Mitch McGary: Analysis: McGary mania is in full swing after a terrific run in the NCAA tourney, but NBA scouts still are getting their arms around his draft stock. They’ve really only been scouting this Mitch McGary for about eight games. However, on the surface, it appears that McGary has a lot of promise. He’s got an incredible motor, is a good athlete, has great hands, rebounds, blocks shots and has shown a midrange game. It’s possible he’s a one-hit wonder, but I think more and more teams believe he’s the same kid that ranked as one of the top five players in the country after his junior year of high school. He could be a great replacement for J.J. Hickson should he bolt in free agency this summer.

No. 15. Glenn Robinson III. Analysis: The Bucks don’t have a lot going for them right now at the small forward position — especially since sending Tobias Harris out of town in the J.J. Redick deal. Robinson would give them yet another long, athletic forward who can fly up and down the floor. The difference with Robinson? He can shoot, and let’s face it, there’s some karma at play here, too. The Bucks drafted Robinson III’s father with the No. 1 pick in 1994. Keep it in the family.

  • That is ridiculous that they put McGary in there. He said earlier that we wasn’t leaving. Respect what the kid said.

    • Later in the week he said that he wasn’t sure and that he will talk things over with his family.

      • gpsimms

        I am 100% positive the new take from McGary is because the coaches have told him he should say that.

        I will bet anyone this is the exact sequence of events:

        *McGary laughs at the notion of going pro.

        *Beilein says, “Hey Mitch, reporters are going to ask that question of everyone on the team regardless, but it gets worse when people actually give an honest answer. It’s a distraction I don’t like. The best way to discourage reporters from asking this question, over and over, is to never ever tell them what you are thinking. Maybe if our whole team only ever answers, ‘You know I don’t know,’ they will stop asking the question. So, do me a favor tomorrow when you talk to them again and tell them you didn’t understand the question and that you aren’t sure right now what you plan on doing.”

        *Mitch says, “OK, coach. That makes sense and I understand.”

        *Mitch tells reporters he has gone from laughing at the prospect of going pro to being undecided.

        *Internet explodes! He might go pro!

        • Adam Valentine

          I hope you are right.

          • JDR


        • Or Mitch has no idea that he could be a first round pick because Ford’s story had just came out. Then afterward talks to his family and realizes that maybe he should start considering it.

          • gpsimms

            The uniformity of each player’s answer indicates to me instruction from the staff on what to say. I shouldn’t have said I am 100% positive, because obviously nothing is 100%, but I would bet money with anyone he stays, and that my supposed sequence of events is more or less accurate.

          • GoBlueScrewOSU7

            This scenario is more likely, unfortunately.

          • ForeverBlue

            They asked him about being one and done early on and he just laughed. I don’t think that was ever his plan, though like you say, maybe he just had no idea that he would be projected this high. Out of all of them though I think McGary seems like the one who loves being a kid. I’d be really surprised if he left.

        • Dr_ZC

          I was thinking about exactly that. They were coached to respond like that.

        • U of M Biscuit

          Yeah that was the exact thought I had too…I was watching post game coverage after the Syracuse win on the BigTen network and he alluded to himself in our offense next year and working more out of the high post similar to what he did against them and his wording made it seem definite that he’d be back at Michigan next year which hopefully was an another slip up against the coaches instructions

      • David DeMember

        Oh wow, hopefully, he pulls a “Trey Burke” – elevate your stock and come back to school. I feel like Tim is the most important returning player almost more than McGary (assuming Donnal can be a scoring compliment to our collection of bigs). We need a vet in the back court and he looked pretty good handling the ball under pressure in the tournament. GR3 actually feels like the most likely to return at this point based on hearsay and rumors…

        • Make no mistake about it, Mitch is the player we need to stay (assumption being Burke is gone). Mitch gives us a physical presence that can not be replaced by anyone on our roster. Tim’s veteran presence would be a big bonus but talent wise he is more easily replaced.

  • Adam Valentine

    Mother of God…

  • Bigdawg5oh

    Jesus!! With the exception of Trey none of them are ready for the NBA.. Definitely not McGary.. He has the potential to be great but he needs a teacher like Beilein to help him get there. It’s funny to me how 6 tourney games in the national spotlight all the sudden make these guys pros.. Clearly nobody paid attention to how Robinson ad McGary played in the B1G.. I totally understand Trey being up there he won everything this year possible but a national title. But all the others need to stay for at least another year! Cause next year has the possibility to be just as amazing!!

    • how a player plays in the B1G has no bearing on how they’ll play in the pros, the NBA game is better suited for all 3 of these guys and while they’ll all have their struggles, there’s no evidence a teacher like Beilein will make them any better suited for the pros in a year or two. He has zero history preparing kids for the pros. That being said, I really hope Mitch and Glenn return, I’m indifferent with Tim, I think he’d be dumb to go, but I’d rather have Glenn be able to play the 3 next year and get some size at the 4

      • UM Hoops Fan

        Trey Burke and Darius Morris provide some evidence Beilein can make kids better suited to the pros in year two than they were in year one.

      • ForeverBlue

        Huh? Look what Beilein and his crew have done with McGary through the course of the season. McGary has talked about it the last few days and Beilein’s offense is preparing kids for the pros. And if a big man can’t dominate in the Big Ten what are his chances in the pros?

  • gpsimms

    Of course everyone is so proud of this team and the coaching staff, but there’s an article up at grantland that is particularly good:

    They’re such great kids, and I think teams take on the personality of the coaching staff. Huge credit to coach B that his teams have been so easy to cheer for, with so many high character kids, in his time here.

  • MGoTweeter

    Hard to fault any of them if they decide to declare and are getting these kinds of draft grades. At least we do not have to wait long to find out.

    • ali

      Especially McGary. Given his age, it may be best he go now lest he suffer the fate of one of the Plumlees. Without a lottery guarantee and the highest ceiling of the three, GRIII seems like he should stay and develop for another year. As for Trey: get money, young man.

      • Mattski

        I would be crestfallen. But I don’t fault anyone for going on to play professionally, ever.

        • Retiredat23

          Nor can we fault them – kids go to play for N. Carolina, Kansas, and Kentucky because those schools churn out NBA talent every year. If we can start doing the same, we’ll continue to see Beilein recruit top 100, top 50, and top 10 kids.

      • CCC

        to be fair, miles plumlee was never supposed to be a first round pick and snuck into the first round via freak numbers at the combine. mason probably was a lottery pick after fr. year based on potential and athleticism, then didn’t really improve, but had an exceptional sr. yr and should be back in the late lottery (i think). a better comp might be josh mcroberts who went from lotto to 2nd round. but yes, i agree that mcgary’s age will be (and should be) a big factor in his decision…

  • Adam Valentine

    Dylan, I feel we are in the same place as last year. Assuming Mitch stays, I feel GR3 is our “Trey Burke” in terms of future team success. We need a stretch 4 for next year.

  • Juan Gone

    No chatter on Hardaway? IMO, he’s more of an NBA guy than GR3, the one handed dunk by him last night was sick. Plus his dad had such a killer crossover, it had it’s own nickname. If he can keep improving his handle, he’d be a fantastic 2 in the NBA

    • robpollard

      THJ is a good player, but he doesn’t have the dribbling, the size, or the shot off the dribble for the NBA. His defense is spotty as well. He needs another year in school.

      • meatblizzard

        Exactly. Somewhat different players, but if Manny Harris couldn’t get traction in the League, hard to see how THJ does.

  • UM Hoops Fan

    I bet Mitch and GRIII will make the same decision either way. No inside info or anything, just a hunch by a random fan based on (1) their friendship and (2) the fact that staying becomes a better option if they both do it because they can hang out together and because the team will be better. They both seem to be kind of on the threshold, where they very well could move up several spots if they stay, but they might be high enough where leaving isn’t too risky — i.e., they’re not going to wind up in the D League or Europe. I hope whatever they choose works out best for them, though of course I want them to stay.

    Even if four guys leave and we run out a rotation of Walton, Spike, LeVert, Stauskus, Irvin, Donnal, Horford, Bielfeldt and Morgan, I would expect another fun, high-scoring team, who just might make another tournament run, even if not quite as deep. If McGary and GRIII stay, regardless of what Timmy does, we’ll be pre-season top 5 and a final four contender again.

    • Retiredat23

      Totally agree….I said the same thing to another friend. They’ve been playing together for years, they support one another, and they’re tight. If one goes and is a 1st round pick (projected)….and the other is a 1st round pick (projected) then I fully believe they’ll both go together.

  • salama

    My gut feeling is that Burke, McGary and Hardaway go to the NBA and Robinson decides to stay, leaving our rotation next year like this, barring a 5th year transfer coming in:

    C- Morgan + Horford

    PF – GRIII + Donnal

    SF- Irvin + Levert

    SG- Stauskas + Levert

    PG- Albrecht + Watson

    Which looks like a solid but not championship contending unit. Maybe a bit better defensively than this year’s squad with the experience at the 5, Levert playing more, and a backup 4 with size, but nowhere near the offensive juggernaut we had this year.

    Very good depth assuming at least 2 of the 3 freshman have strong years. Team would look a lot better with McGary at the 5, but it will be nice to see Horford rewarded with bigger minutes and Morgan is still the team’s best defender.

    Still should be the best 3pt shooting team in the B10. Maybe we’ll see more 1-3-1 zone.

  • Dr_ZC

    Well, Burke is gone. He has nothing more to prove or win.

    Timmy, should (and will) go. His stock will not get any higher. His performance was sub-par during the tournament run, his shot was not falling, and he seemed to be affected by that (he looked concerned and scared in most of his tournament snapshots). Timmy can create his own shot, can rebound and can pass. He will be a steal in the NBA. His father will give him valuable advise.

    Glenn and Mitch should (and will) stay. Glenn’s natural NBA position is 3. He played the 4 and in many games he got dominated. He is not there yet as far as creating his own shot. Mitch has to prove that he can stay in shape and play under control. Both Glenn and Mitch have to realize that they were the beneficiaries of good guard play during their freshman year. There is still many of things for them to work on, before any team can risk signing them to fat contracts as lottery picks and have them riding the pine. The good news is that Glenn’s dad can give both some useful advice.

    In the end, it will come down to what coach JB advises them to do.

    • Champswest

      I have never seen Tim Hardaway, Jr. look scared and I have seen every game. I think he exhibited a sense of urgency and determination and maybe a little desperation. He did a lot more for this team than just score points.

      • Dr_ZC

        Maybe I used the wrong expression. I think concerned is more appropriate. Robinson had always a poker face, while McGary and Burke were unphased.

  • A2JD

    I wouldn’t blame them for making the jump but I think if Mitch and GR III stay, they can play their way into the high lottery. Also, Chad Ford isn’t the see-all-know-all of the NBA Draft. He greatly undervalued Burke for most of the year.

    I also get the impression that Mitch loves being in Ann Arbor, being a student at U of M

    and being a part of this team. He’s just scratching the surface and I think would be a better pro with another year of seasoning.

    GR III, even moreso. He doesn’t seem ready to me. He’s such a quiet guy and needs to step into more of a leadership role to prepare himself for being a Pro. He would get drafted more on potential than the other two but I don’t think he’s got his skills honed enough and is mature enough to assure long-term success.

    I think more teaching of the game gets done in college.

    Trey is ready, both physically and mentally. His stock probably won’t get any higher either. If he decided to stay to chase an NCAA championship, I’d be elated. I’d be just as elated if the Pistons took him. He’s a leader (with skills to boot) and they sorely need one.

  • Alex

    Looks like we could be sweating it until June 17th, which is the early entry withdrawal deadline. The only way we really know one way or the other until then is if one of them signs an agent, or doesn’t enter by April 28th.

    • jemblue

      My understanding is the withdrawl deadline (for NCAA players, anyway) is actually in just a few days.

  • Dr_ZC

    We talked about Tim and Burke that will most likely opt to to the NBA, but we did not touch on attrition at all. I see a problem with the 4 bigs and Donnal fighting for one spot on the team (since Beilein likes to go small).

    Assuming Mitch stays, we will have Donnal, McGary, Morgan, Hortfort and Max at the post. If GR3 stays, he can potentially steal somebody’s time. I see Max will have problems getting playing time, and he might transfer. The Hortford Morgan story will be an interesting one last year.

    At the wing guard/forwards, if Tim stays, we will have Tim, Levert, Stauskas, Irvin, and GR3 fighting for 2 spots. If Tim goes, the situation is simpler.

    At guard, we will have Spike and Walton. No conflict there, but there might be a conflict in me trying to get the rights for Spike’s life story to make a “Rudy” movie.

  • Northern Blue

    Well, this is interesting. I am sure, we won’t know until the final days before the withdrawal day what will be happening with these guys. Need to get their information, unless they’re heart is set on coming back and trying to win a national championship, which would probably take everyone but Trey, or atleast Mitch and GR3.

    Be ready for any outcome… After Darius left 2 years ago and Trey was considering, I definitely thought Trey was gone last year. In hindsight he made a great decision. I don’t know how you tell kids if they truly are gonna enter into 5 – 10 million dollar contracts (their current mock positions) not to follow their dreams. It is such a balancing act between cashing in on your value when it might be highest, and what is best for your development as a basketball player. Lets be honest, of anyone, I only thing GR3 could elevate his stock based on these projections, and thats not even a sure thing. He has tons of work to do.

    If all four go, or 3 go, we will have a down year, where hopefully we still make the ncaa tourny field and then we will be back as contenders a year later i presume after next years class has a year under their belt. I am predicting all 3 of those guys will have an appearence on an all big ten team at some point (maybe not 1st team all big ten, but 2nd or 3rd.) Hopefully Beilien can get back to this game one more time… we will see. Hopefully this picks up the 2014 and 2015 recruiting significantly. GO BLUE!

  • meatblizzard

    As Michigan fans, I think we should legitimately be upset if Trey stays – because clearly the best thing for him to do at his point is leave. It would be immensely selfish for us fans to want him to come back when he is slated to be mid-lottery pick with a lot of guaranteed money.

    I hope GRIII stays one more year. I think the Kansas and Louisville games showed he needs to get stronger. It’s hard to see him being successful in the League where he still needs to improve his shooting to be a viable SF or get stronger to be a PF. Presumably his family doesn’t need the money. Granted he’s not rated as low as Trey was last year, but look at how much you can improve your draft stock in one season.

    Seems like McGary was pretty strong last week that he was staying. I know he’s creeping up the draft boards, but he seems like he’s committed. More so, that once he’s said something, he holds that as truth.

    • jemblue

      I fully expect Trey to leave and I’m fine with it, but I certainly wouldn’t be “upset” if he decided to stay. If he did, it’d be strictly his decision. Should we be upset that Taylor Lewan is staying?

  • snoopblue

    It would suck if they left, yes, but let’s remember that if Beilein is getting under the radar players drafted in the lottery or to the NBA in general, it’s good for the program. Might open some players’/people’s eyes to Michigan. Spike was insurance last year in case Burke went early, so as much as I would hate any of the freshman leaving early, it’s also giving Beilein a chance to work his magic – and that’s pretty damn exciting.

  • Chris

    So, any idea on who this years Spike/Leverts will be to come in and fill these scholarships?

  • rlcBlue

    Of course I would love for any and all of Burke, Hardaway, Robinson and McGary to come back; I expect them to get good, accurate advice about their prospects in this and future drafts and then decide accordingly. My guess is that Trey will certainly enter the draft, Tim probably will, Glenn might, and Mitch might not.

    That said – the program currently has 13 scholarship commitments for the 2013-14 school year. What do you suppose Beilein will do if he suddenly finds himself with up to four scholarships available in April?

    The team has much better depth than it had a year ago; even if all four guys leave, there won’t be a single hole as big as the Burke-sized one would have been last April. I agree that GRIII is the one player who would be least-adequately replaced, but if Donnal can knock down threes and box out fours he will see plenty of playing time at the power forward spot even if Glenn stays.

    What will be missed maybe even more than the talent of any of the four will be the experience; the only weakness of Beilein’s Michigan program so far is the shortage of quality upperclassmen. That was one striking difference between us and the last four teams we played; Kansas, Florida, Syracuse, and Louisville all had upperclassmen who were very highly rated recruits. Until we can keep four star recruits around for their junior and senior seasons, it will be very hard to field a top-10 defense, especially given Beilein’s preference for recruiting players with offensive skills.

    So, while I’m sure we’d be delighted to offer Andrew Wiggins one of the scholarships that opens up, a more achievable target may be a transfer (post-grad or otherwise) who brings some defensive skills to the team. If he can shoot threes, so much the better. I have no idea who this might be. Anyone else know?

  • Rich74

    Understanding that the NBA drafts for potential: it makes it possible that McGary and GRIII will join Trey this year. Personally, from what I have seen throughout the year, McGary and GRIII are not ready to go this year. They both have so MUCH to learn and need time in the weight room to get stronger. GRIII needs to get angrier and more mature on the court. I can’t imagine that they can use the “I need to do it for the family” reason. THJ is a tough one to figure out. I still feel that he needs to hone his ball handling skills (as evidenced by his play in the playoffs). He has improved from last year, no doubt about it. IF THJ stays to play his senior year he will be the go to guy because Spike and Walton will not be as aggressive in scoring as Trey was this year.
    All that being said, if they are assured to be a first round pick with guaranteed contracts, you almost have to leave. Take the money, get your degree after you wash out of the NBA, or hopefully, when you retire after 15 years in the NBA.

    • David

      “All that being said, if they are assured to be a first round pick with guaranteed contracts, you almost have to leave.”

      Exactly. Hope they stay, wish them luck if they go.

  • A2JD

    Digging through the archives, it looks like this video features Mitch, GR III AND Spike, playing AAU two years ago: