Class of 2013 Big Ten Recruiting Rankings: October 4th, 2012

Dylan Burkhardt
on

The early signing period is just over a month away so we’ve taken the time to refresh our Big Ten class of 2013 rankings. The rankings incorporate numbers from Rivals, Scout and ESPN into a composite average score to rank the best incoming classes in the conference. We’ve made a couple of tweaks to this month’s rankings by adding a factor into the formula. The change in the formula aims to demonstrate the relative importance of top flight recruits, or recruits ranked four stars or better.

Adding the additional factor to the math kept Michigan (three 4-star recruits) ahead of Indiana while also moving Ohio State (two 4-star recruits) ahead of Wisconsin, Penn State and Nebraska. We also added a breakdown of the top ten prospects in the conference with their respective ranks across services.

Rank School Commits Rivals Avg. Scout Avg. ESPN Avg. Rankings Avg. Class Ave. Score Class Cum. Score
1 Michigan 3 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 102.93 835
2 Indiana 4 3.25 3.50 2.75 3.17 94.03 990
3 Illinois 3 3.67 3.67 3.67 3.67 93.23 790
4 Purdue 3 3.67 3.67 3.33 3.56 88.91 765
5 Ohio State 2 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 81.52 540
6 Wisconsin 4 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.92 79.76 875
7 Penn State 3 3.00 3.00 2.67 2.89 72.28 690
8 Nebraska 3 2.67 2.67 3.33 2.89 70.19 670
9 Northwestern 2 3.00 3.00 3.50 3.17 65.15 485
10 Iowa 1 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 41.60 225
11 Minnesota 2 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 34.21 370
12 Michigan State 0 N/A N/A N/A 0.00 0.00 0

Find a run-down of new commitments, top 2013 players in the Big Ten and team-by-team breakdowns after the jump.

Action since last rankings:

  • Sep 4, 2012: Penn State adds commitment from Payton Banks
  • Sep 14, 2012: Wisconsin adds commitment from Vitto Brown
  • Sep 15, 2012: Illinois adds commitment from Kendrick Nunn
  • Sep 18, 2012: Ohio State adds commitment from Kameron Williams
  • Sep 23, 2012: Iowa adds commitment from Peter Jok
  • Sep 23, 2012: Minnesota adds commitment from Alvin Ellis
  • Oct. 3, 2012: Minnesota adds commitment from Daniel Edoze

Names to Know

There are ten players committed to Big Ten schools with an average composite score of 90 or higher, which equates to a consensus 4-star top 100 prospect. Here’s the top ten, sorted first by average score and second by average rank.

Name School Average Rivals Scout ESPN
Derrick Walton Michigan 95.0 44 44 33
Zak Irvin Michigan 93.3 31 63 22
Kendrick Nunn Illinois 91.7 42 55 57
Stanford Robinson Indiana 91.7 48 57 56
Marc Loving Ohio State 90.0 60 60 58
Kendall Stephens Purdue 90.0 56 64 63
Malcolm Hill Illinois 90.0 64 66 89
Kameron Williams Ohio State 90.0 80 89 53
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 90.0 70 #25 SG 92
Mark Donnal Michigan 90.0 104 81 97

Note: Walton ranks ahead of Irvin, despite Irvin’s higher average rank, because our system rates him 95/100 at all three services while Irvin’s 63 grade at Scout brings his average score to 93.3.

Team-by-Team

Michigan

Name Position State Rivals Scout ESPN
Mark Donnal PF OH 4 4 4
Zak Irvin SF IN 4 4 4
Derrick Walton PG MI 4 4 4

Austin Hatch reclassifies to 2014 which negates Michigan’s cumulative numbers but moves U-M’s average ranking to 4-stars across the board.

Indiana

Name Position State Rivals Scout ESPN
Devin Davis SF IN 3 3 2
Luke Fischer PF WI 3 4 3
Collin Hartman SF IN 3 3 2
Stanford Robinson SG VA 4 4 4

Stan Robinson is one of the highest rated incoming prospects in the Big Ten but Indiana’s previous early commitments are still down a bit from early on in their careers.

Illinois

Name Position State Rivals Scout ESPN
Malcolm Hill SG IL 4 4 4
Maverick Morgan C OH 3 3 3
Kendrick Nunn SG IL 4 4 4

Illini land a big commitment in local product Kendrick Nunn and jump Purdue for #3 spot in the team rankings.

Purdue

Name Position State Rivals Scout ESPN
Bryson Scott SG IN 4 4 3
Basil Smotherman SF IN 3 3 3
Kendall Stephens SG IL 4 4 4

Status quo for the Boilermakers who have a strong incoming group.

Ohio State

Name Position State Rivals Scout ESPN
Marc Loving PF OH 4 4 4
Kameron Williams SG MD 4 4 4

Consensus 4-star SG Kameron Williams commits to the Buckeyes. Buckeyes move up in the team rankings with two 4-star commitments.

Wisconsin

Name Position State Rivals Scout ESPN
Vitto Brown PF OH 3 3 2
Riley Dearring SF MN 3 3 3
Jordan Hill SG CA NR NR 2
Bronson Koenig PG WI 4 4 4

One time Michigan target Vitto Brown commits to Wisconsin. Riley Dearring adds 3-stars from Rivals. Jordan Hill gets 2-stars from ESPN.

Penn State

Name Position State Rivals Scout ESPN
Payton Banks SF CA 3 3 2
Julian Moore PF PA 3 3 3
Geno Thorpe PG PA 3 3 3

Penn State goes cross country to grab a commitment from Orange County product Payton Banks. Julian Moore gets 3-stars from Rivals.

Nebraska

Name Position State Rivals Scout ESPN
Nick Fuller SF WI 3 3 3
Nathan Hawkins SG TX 3 3 3
Tai Webster PG NZ NR NR 4

Tai Webster gets 4-stars from ESPN. Nathan Hawkins gets 3-stars from ESPN.

Northwestern

Name Position State Rivals Scout ESPN
Jaren Sina PG NJ 3 3 4
Nate Taphorn SF IL 3 3 3

Iowa

Name Position State Rivals Scout ESPN
Peter Jok SF IA 3 3 3

Hawkeyes get their first commitment in small forward Peter Jok.

Minnesota

Name Position State Rivals Scout ESPN
Alvin Ellis SF IL 3 3 3
Daniel Edoze PF TX (Juco) N/A N/A N/A

Minnesota got its first commitment from Chicago product Alvin Ellis and added a junior college big man Daniel Edoze this week.

Michigan State

Michigan State has no commitments in the class of 2013.

Ranking Explanations

Every player is given a normalized score on a 100 point scale for each of the three major scouting services. That score breaks down like this:

Player Score
100 = 5* Player
95 = 4* and top 50 player
90 = 4* player not in top 50
85 = Top 150 player or top 30 at position
80 = Top 40 at position
75 = Top 50 at position or 3* player unranked at his position
70 = Top 75 at position
65 = Top 100 at position or 2* player unranked at his position
60 = Top 300 player or 1* player unranked at his position
50 = Player who has no star rating or position ranking

That much is relatively simple. Those scores are combined into two cumulative metrics: Class Average Score and Class Cumulative Score.

  • Class Average Score: Average normalized scores by service multiplied by the square root of the number of commitments/3.25 (13 total scholarships over 4 years) as well as our additional factor the square root of average ranking over 3.
  • Class Cumulative Score: Sum of all normalized score for all recruits based on all services

The system is far from perfect – as was discussed in the comments of our last 2012 update – but we favor the current system to generate some sort of consistent, objective basis for comparing classes. Special thanks to Trent Montemayor for compiling all of the data.

  • Added Daniel Edoze to Minnesota’s list, we missed him. He’s an unranked juco.

    • Retiredat23

      You’re the man Dylan, keep up the good work.

  • BlueRev

    Despite all the evidence to the contrary as a rational UM fan I still don’t think JB will ever be able to bring truly talented players to AA… HAHAHA… never heard me saying that a few years back and it is exciting to see this happening! Combine this talent (similar to “back in the day)” with the best coach I’ve ever seen UM have (unlike “back in the day”) and expect us to do the other thing rational people don’t expect–UM to be a consistent national player and deep tourney threat year after year.

    • geoffclarke

      Gotta keep it going in ’14 – I like Bates-Diop, Doyle, and Booker.

      • BlueRev

        have all the confidence in the world in JB keeping the pipeline going!

  • dirtypasta

    Anyone else terrified of all the Parker to MSU momentum?

    • dirtypasta

      Also scouts 63 for Irvin is baffling

      • geoffclarke

        It doesn’t make sense, but whatever.

    • geoffclarke

      Terrified? Nope. But there’s no denying that they would be absolutely loaded if they got him and would be difficult to beat (when aren’t they?), especially if all they lose is Nix. But Michigan’s going to have yet another very talented team next year, even if Burke does go pro and we’re running a freshman at the point.