Bubble Updates: Selection Sunday Morning

UM_SELECTION-thumb-590x390-72781[1]When I started posting bubble updates three weeks ago, there wasn’t a single bracketologist that listed Michigan in the field of 68. Now the Wolverines are listed as a tournament team by every bracketologist listed on the Bracket Matrix. Here’s a look at the updated versions of all of the bracketology reports that we’ve been linking as well as an early look at some of the teams that Michigan could face in the first round (after the jump).

Michigan will also host a viewing party at Crisler Arena. Doors open at 5 p.m. and the show begins at 6 p.m. Parking is free and John Beilein will address the crowd. CBS and the Big Ten Network are expected to cover the event and MGoBlue will stream it live as well.

The consensus seems to be that Michigan will fall somewhere along the 10 or 11 seed lines, maybe dropping to a 12 or even being bumped up to a 9. Here are your standard bracketology notes and links:

The 10-11-12 possibilities mean that Michigan will likely face a 5, 6 or 7 seed in the opening round. Here’s a list of teams that occupy those spots in most brackets (in a very loose seed order, linked to KenPom profiles):

  • St. John’s – Experienced and athletic team with the knack for knocking off highly rated squads.
  • Georgetown – Senior point guard Chris Wright will play in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Arizona – Boast a potential player of the year candidate in Derrick Williams
  • West Virginia – A great offensive rebounding team that defends the three.
  • Texas A&M – A slow paced team that gets to the free throw line and crashes the offensive glass and defends the three but is not a great shooting team.
  • Xavier – A10 co-champs score the ball inside and live at the free throw line.
  • Temple The other A10 champs don’t turn the ball over, make a high percentage of their threes, and keep opponents off the free throw line.
  • Cincinnati – Great defensive team that doesn’t shoot the ball that well but is strong on the offensive glass.
  • Kansas StatePreseason top 5 team rebounded and finished the regular season on an 8-1 stretch to cement an NCAA bid.
  • Vanderbilt – John Jenkins is a deadly efficient scorer, averaging just under 20 points per game while shooting 41% on threes.
  • Old DominionWould seem like a match-up nightmare for Michigan. Big strong and dominant on the offensive glass.
  • UNLV – Often forgotten in the MWC behind media darlings BYU and San Diego State, UNLV can play as well and beat Wisconsin earlier this year.
  • Washington - The Huskies love to run and have a number of talented and quick guards. Washington is playing good basketball, having just won the Pac-10 tournament championship.
  • Villanova – Villanova is in the midst of a late season swoon for the second consecutive year, losing five straight and 10 of their last 15.

There are obviously a lot of very good teams in this range. What team would you most want to see appear next to Michigan’s name this evening?

  • Kenny

    love the fact that the team is going to make it. Beilein outdid his 2006-2007 WV team.
    I think that the team has a decent chance to survive the first weekend.

  • Mark

    Villanova would obviously be my first choice. They are in just a massive funk. I’m actually surprised you have them listed as a potentail 5,6 or 7. I was under the impression their slide will land them an 8 seed or worse.

    GTown I like and I would prefer not to play a great shooting team. UM still goes through long scoring droughts and I’d rather play a team that struggles offensively as well.

  • Bobby

    Hey Dylan, I’ll be unable to watch the live stream. Do you think mgoblue.com will have the live stream up on its website later tonight for those who missed it?

  • lordfoul

    1. Old Dominion – Lesser conference should equate to somewhat lesser talent, even if big and strong. Pomeroy rank only 51.

    2. UNLV – MWC just not the test of the Big East and did not beat the big dogs in conference play. Probably not a big talent gap to overcome.

    3. Villanova – Michigan seems to beat teams that are insecure and struggling (Illinois, Sparty); would be #1 if not from the Big East.

    3. Old Dominion – Lesser conference should equate to somewhat lesser talent, even if big and strong.

    4. Vanderbilt – Cleaned up in the weak SEC, shut down their big star and get the W.

    5. Who knows? All I know is this Michigan team can beat anyone on that list, and probably anyone in this tournament.

    • Devin

      Oh wow lordfoul…. Rankings and conferences mean nothing in the NCAA. I’ve watched this Old Dominion team a few times this year. Like Dylan said above, ODU would be a nightmare matchup. They are a very big team, get offensive rebounds like crazy, and they get to the foul line by putting their opponents in foul trouble.

      ODU and Kansas State would be the two team I do NOT want to see. I would like to see a power conference team, maybe one from the Big East. The power conference teams are more likely to overlook us.

  • mh

    VILLANOVA, please. A good matchup for michigan on paper, and they tanked the 2nd half of the season.

    Aside from that, I’d like to face any SEC team. Aside from that, maybe Vanderbilt? I think the SEC is very soft this year.

  • Brad

    do NOT want Old Dominion…big, athletic, and plays very fast…Georgetown, Cincinatti, A & M and Arizona all sound nice…Seen Gtown in person a couple times, and came away very underwhelmed…nobody can really create offense, and a lot of 5-6 passes and a contested three, and seemed prone to mental lapses on defense…

    • Paul

      Would have us playing Nate “almost went to Michigan” Lubick. The little bit that I saw of them this year he actually played pretty descent. Would’ve been a good addition…not that I’m complaining with where we are now.

  • maxwell’s demon

    I wonder if B10 coach of the year voting had been pushed back til now if anyone would have given Beilein more consideration. A pretty remarkable feat. Same should probably be said for PSU, I’m glad they made it.

  • AG2

    I wouldn’t mind seeing Cinci or WVU, neither team scares me offensively and I think Morgan could handle Dennis Kilicilli. I don’t like the idea of playing Arizona. I mean Derrick Williams vs. Evan Smotrycz? Shudder.

    Normally I like to see my teams in a Friday/Sunday region because it makes their time in the tournament last longer, but I’m going to be busy Friday night and since a team like Michigan always ends up as a prime time draw I’ll hope for Thursday/Saturday this year.

  • Tweeter

    My first choice from that list would be texas a&m. I think with the tempo that they play, we could beat them. K-State would be up there as well. Take away Pullen, not an easy task, and that team is pretty ordinary. Plus they are likely way overrated just based on a late season run. Third would be Cincy. They would crush us on the glass, but their offense is terrible and they would struggle on defense with some of the matchups.

  • Mike

    def dont want cincy…way to big and athletic for us…. id want gtown or nova

  • ZRL

    Just avoid St.Johns, ODU, and Arizona and I’ll be happy. With the right matchups I like our chances of making the sweet 16.

    • ZRL

      Actually, after looking at ODU’s profile a little closer I’m not scared of them. They have great rebounding, but terrible 3 pt% defense. Would be strengths vs weaknesses.

      • Devin

        But you don’t want them exploiting our biggest weakness. They scare me, I’ve seen them play.

  • mich is boss

    i want temple they just dont seem big enough and fast enough to stay with us we could take care of them

  • Moe1989

    I can see this team getting thru the first week but to inconsistent on offence to make a run but anyways this is going to be experience for the next two years who knows if morris stays till hes a senior I can see a national title.

  • http://. Tony N.

    As strange as it makes me feel to say this, my preference for a 1st round matchup would probably be the 3 Big East teams up there… G’town and Nova have been really struggling lately, so those are kinda obvious. And while St. John’s has a lot of extremely impressive wins, they also lost to Seton Hall recently, no? They’re very talented and have the potential to reach an Elite 8, but their first 10 games or so are very average (much like Michigan’s, to be honest) and suggests that they’re not immune to a flop.

    • Brad

      kind of agree actually…st john’s seems to really struggle in games they are expected to win, and the other 3 really seem to struggle with chemistry and playing as a team…for some reason, I think we drop all the big east teams..

  • ScottGoBlue

    For the sake of drama, I’d most like to see us play West Virginia.

    For the sake of winning, sounds like Nova is most vulnerable.

  • ScottGoBlue

    Also, I think I’d rather we end up with a 10-11-12 seed than 8-9. I’m not eager to play a 1-seed in round 2 (should we win round 1). I like the look of an 11, playing a 6 first, with a shot at a 3 next.

    Ummmm … but, like, we’re IN the tournament, folks!!!

  • mgocanada

    UCLA, Marquette, and Butler would appear to be other teams falling into this general seed category. I think the Big East in general would be bad news for us, but on the other hand, most of them must be pretty ragged right now after a gruelling schedule (Nova and Georgetown fading).

    I am with the “we can beat any team/lose to any team” crowd… as in, we could beat UNC and lose to Akron, depending on the day. I’m hoping for a ten seed — don’t 10 seeds historically win the 7/10 games? 8/9 games are usually garbage fests.

    • Tweeter

      UCLA, Marquette and Butler would all be great, but I don’t think they will be seeded that high

      • Devin

        Those teams might fall in line if we some how get a 9 seed.

  • Carl

    What about Washington? It looks like they could be a 7 and us a 10 or we be a 9 and them an 8.

    • Dylan Burkhardt

      Good call on Washington. I’ll add them to the list.

    • Beast1530

      Not sure about Washington. A tough 1st round matchup for Michigan.

  • Anthony

    I would not want to see georgetown,arizona,vanderbilt,kentucky, or odu

    1. Georgetown- Freeman and Wright our studs they would be a tough cover their bigs are really solid and will give our bigs trouble… Vaugh and Thompson are very good players that are atheltic and tough to defend…

    2. Arizona- Just a bad match up with derrick williams we would have no on really who could guard him effecitvley. They also have really solid guard play, but its nothing special they have alot of contributors but when i like to avoid star play in the first round because great players can win a game or two by themselves and williams is that kind of talent.

    3. Vanderbilt- Jenkins is a very good scorer along with taylor and tinsley just a really talented team that can score and defend…

    4. ODU- Their strenght is that match up 2-3 zone thats very effective and will give any team trouble, and their biggest strength is crashing the glass hassel is a beast inside…

    5. Kentucky- Just so much talent i dont think they will face them as kentucky will probably be a 4 seed but if they are a 5-12 match up they are very touch. Jones would be a touch cover along with harelson inside. Knight and Lamb our both terrific scorers and both nba prospects.

  • Matt

    St. John’s is overrated trash. Their defense is good, but our offense is made to crack a defense like that, we pass really well and hopefully we play a little more 1-3-1 for their streetball offense.

  • Steve

    Does anyone else think Jordan Morgan looks a bit like David Blaine?

  • Mattski

    Generally good to play the better-known teams and from the bigger conferences/schools, I would think. Loss to a small-conference school hurts our rep and the B10s while there is clear upside to a victory over, say, a Big East squad. If you lose as a 10-11 seed to such a team no one is all that shocked, plus you draw eyeballs, build the program.

    Stallings, for Vanderbilt, has his teams prepared; I’d as soon avoid Vandy and loss to an SEC school. And I’m not sure Beilein would relish playing WVU.

  • Dylan Burkhardt
    • Tyler

      Thanks Dylan. I think our record is slightly better than people think. We now have six top 50 rpi wins. 6 road/neutral wins is always good esp. when four of those wins was against top 100 rpi. I think we end up as a 10 seed (which would be kinda hard to believe considering thats where we were on 2009).

      As far as to whom I would want to play. Haven’t watched Temple play, but sounds like they are identical to us. And then gotta with Nova. I have felt like playing a midmajor is go. Every once in a while a mid-major with a strong resume will just get exposed in the big stage. How far do you guys think BYU will fall due to their recent struggles without Davies?

      • Tyler

        resume not record*

        • ZRL

          Yeah, I’m hoping that BYU is our 2nd round matchup. People get caught up in the Jimmer hype, but I don’t think they are that good.

          • Beast1530

            Without Davies, BYU are just an average team. With him, BYU would be a very tough matchup for Michigan.

  • jmblue

    I don’t understand how Illinois jumped us. Whatever though – I’ll take any seeding that allows us to miss Dayton.

    • Beast1530

      They beat UNC, Gonzaga, Wisconsin and MSU this season. Their best wins are better than Michigan’s best wins.

    • Devin

      Yeah, they didn’t jump us, they’ve been ahead the whole time. We closed the gap by beating them on Friday.

  • Jeff

    Some bubble teams are breathing a huge sigh of relief right now with Dayton about to lose.

  • Alex

    Give me any of these teams but especially the Big East teams. It’s a win-win situation. I know we want to advance as far as possible so we want the weaker teams on this list but if we do draw a tough match-up and win this can only further boost the confidence and experience level of our team. Imagine getting an 8 or 9 seed and advancing to the Sweet Sixteen. Whatever happens in this Tourney I am happy because it is only going to make them better and more anxious for greater success now and in the future.

  • Alex

    Edit: I mean beating an 8 seed if we were to get seeded 9. Same deal goes with getting a 10 seed and having to beat a 7 and 2 seed to reach the Sweet Sixteen. I am just happy that we are probably making the Tournament and that this experience should really help with the growth of our team.

  • mistersuits

    The end to this season is going to be all around fun because there are no expectations. It’s been an amazing ride and everything else is just icing on the cake.

    I’m scared of what’s going to happen next year when we’re going to start off expecting at least an NCAA bid – 2009-10 season scarred me I think.

    • BeileinsBricks

      Yup, we’re playing with house money this year. Next year we have to meet heightened expectations, and that’s the year that should be used to judge the current regime’s tenure. Just enjoy the ride for the next couple of weeks (hopefully) and then we can start thinking about next year.

  • SS

    We’ve shown most of the year that we can play with any type of team. I mean Kansas, OSU, and Ill see like tough matchups with their size and our lack of it in the inside but we’ve managed to put ourselves in position to win vs these teams. So, I am confident we can beat any of these teams. I can’t wait we got a very good pt guard who isn’t intimidate by anyone, our chemistry is at a high level, and our coach is able to make within game adjustments better than most coaches (which is exponentially impt when we are in down to the wire tourney games—and you know we will be in those).

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