Hey Dylan, do you have any thoughts or opinions on Anton Wilson?

Definitely want to keep an eye on that 3-pt percentage. Like it or not, that will be the biggest indicator of our success this year. 33% is not good enough (the NCAA average is always around 34%) but you have to take that with a grain of salt due to the 24 second clock and the international 3-pt line (in 3 of the 4 games at least).

Considering the amount of threes we take, if this team can shoot in the 35-36% range, I think we’ll be in strong contention for an NIT bid and maybe borderline NCAA bubble. 37-38% may put us right on the bubble or in. Anything above 38% and I’m calling it right now – we make the tournament. It sounds simple but if you look at Beilein teams in the past (including the last couple years) there is a pretty clear trend.

By the way, if we shot 33% last year instead of 29%, I think we would have made the tournament. To most teams a 4% improvement won’t mean much but to a Beilein team it means the world.

Ditto on FL Wolve’s question on Anton Wilson.

The first thing that jumped out to me when examining the stats, was the 2p% of both Stu & Morris, that is REALLY low.

With Morris, the reality is that he simply can’t shoot at this point in his career. He still has a hitch in his shot, his mechanics need a lot of work.

I really think Stu needs to develop a pull up jumpshot from 8-15 feet, because its obvious he is going to have a difficult time finishing over size with a limited amount of athletic ability. He would be so much more efficient if he could simply get a high screen just above/below the 3 point line and step into a free throw line jumper.

On the bright side, Vogrich produced – no other way to put it. He was our leading rebounder as well! That’s encouraging. Smot put in decent work for having a broken toe and less than 20 minutes per game. Horford – looks like that kid has the potential to be a rebounding mahcine – he’s rebounding rate is nearly 2 per 5 minutes, which translates to 12 boards if he plays 30 minutes. THJ is going to be a stud, that guy was underrated to be honest. I actually think he is our best all around player RIGHT NOW.

Mistake on the previous post – I thought Horford was averaging 3 boards in 6.7 minutes rather than 8.7. Even so, that still equates to nearly over 9 boards per 30 minutes.

I begin to agree that Stu Douglass may end up being edged onto the bench as the season progresses–regrettably, because I had high hopes for him during his freshman year (confidence issues, or just not a great shooter in the end?)

Morris is an even bigger disappointment, at this stage–everyone needs to be a scoring threat in Beilein’s offense–but maybe we will have to settle for a guy who moves the ball well and can get to the basket, as someone else here wrote recently (???)

Everywhere else it’s mostly bright spots, no?

Some of these stats don’t seem quite right. If Morris shot 29% on 2′s and missed all of his 3′s, then his efg% has to be lower then 29%.

Also, I don’t seem why everyone is down on Stu after this trip. I don’t care if he can’t make 2′s if he is going to shoot 40% from 3′s for the year. There’s only a problem if he can’t make his 2′s and only shoots 33% from deep.

You are right. Morris shot 40% on twos. Fixing it now.

Let me know if you see any other discrepancies.

yeah stu averaged something like 36/37 minutes per game last year over the last 10 games. there is no way he loses his spot.

darius and stu are both going to be 35 minute a game type players, and take up almost all the minutes at guard.

Looking at the offense, the benefit for Beilein is obvious…he can now start tinkering with the offense so that he can take advantage of this teams weaknesses and focus on their strengths.

In other words…he can start establishing some guidelines for individual players as it relates to shot selection and shot distribution. Good offense really comes down to efficiency…getting the ball to the right players where they can do the most damage, especially with a group that will not look to just one or two guys to absorb the brunt of the scoring load.

The offense should look decidedly different this season than last…not necessarily better or worse…different. More balance, more movement and the shot distribution should be more evenly spread out. The charge Beilein has is to get the players to understand that offensive efficiency is critical to this teams success and letting the offense work and getting the ball to the right guys at the right time will give this team it’s best chance to be a good offensive team, game in game out.

Just because some players played a lot last year doesn’t mean he will this year. We have 6 (SIX!)freshman and at least 4 of them are going to play a lot. We are going to be a much different team because we now have the size upfront that has been lacking. Novak will see more time at the 2 and 3, THJR is going to get his minutes, plus Vogrich. So I will not be surprised at all to see Stu get his minutes pinched. Will he play…absolutely. Will he start? I think at the beginning of the year, yes..but THJR will start eventually when Smotz cracks the starting lineup.

Beginning of year

1) D-MO
2.) Stu
3.) THJR
4.) Novak (despite the fact I hate playing him at the 4)
5.) Blake

6.) Vogrich
7.) Smotz
8.) Morgan

Mid-year

1.) D-Mo
2.) THJR
3.) Novak (he looks so nice at the 3)
4.) Smotz
5.) Blake

6.) Stu
7.) Vog
8.) Morgan

@JayRich – I would add Colton; I’m hoping he’s another surprise.

Yeah, I don’t know how he fits into the equation. I don’t think anyone does. I personally would like to see Horford redshirt so if Colt45 can help out, that would be great because it keep novak at the 3 more minutes.

Vogrich was our leading rebounder? huh. I get the impression Colton will be more likely than Horford to play this season if one is redshirted. Hopefully, he can hit the boards hard.

I, too, think that Stu will come off bench later in the season.

Two reasons,
1. Vogrich shows that he can rebound and rain down 3s.
2. Stu needs to back-up Morris at 1. It is a lot better to have Stu in with fresh legs. He can back-up 2 as well.

I honestly think that this team (with not having a main go to guy) will be better than before. Sure it is nice to have 2 guys scoring 15+ per game(Sim and Harris,) but I would much rather have 5 guys scoring between 8-12.
I go to school at Murray State. I am sure you all have heard of htem because of their run last year (beating Vandy in the first round, and winning 31 games.) We had 6 guys averaging between 9.7 and 10.6 points per game. On any given night we could have any starter get 20 points. That is how I would love to see michigan play. (also Murray shot 38% from 3 which would be nice.)
Oh and by the way, Murray will be even better this year. atleast a sweet 16 quality team.
Heres to hoping Michigan will have a balenced offense and suprise a bunch of people!!

oh, and to chime in on the discussion. I think by mid season the depth chart will be:
1. Darius
2. THJ
3. Novak
4. Smotz
5. Morgan
With our big-game short bench consisting of
1/2 Stu
2/3 Vogrich
5 Mclimans

I would like to see Horford redshirt for the same reason I want to see Devin Gardner redshirt–the assumption that both coaches are (finally) confident they are building toward brighter days, and can afford to hold something back.

Douglass contributes many intangibles to the team, but I still think that in the best of all possible worlds he’s coming off the bench.

Smh at the negative nancy types ..

Let’s cool the Amaker BS. I tried to take out some of the trash. Let’s move on.

McLimans stats are quite underwhelming. He needs to step it up

SIAP, but we totaled 4 Flint area prospects visited in the last month or so:
http://highschoolsports.mlive.com/news/article/-5884884330620915666/carman-ainsworth-junior-to-be-anton-wilson-talks-to-um-hoops-about-his-visit-to-the-university-of-michigan/

work it Coach B

I wouldn’t put too much stock into McLiman’s stats. The wider key and older players overseas have the most impact on post players.

Looking at the stats, Bartelstein is the obvious starter with an eFG% of 125%!

how many internet points would you all like to wager that stu is a starter all year?

Haha I saw Bartelstein’s eFG% and was quite surprised as well.

yea i would be pretty shocked if Stu does not start all year. Both the last two seasons Beilein messed around with where Stu should play and whether he should start. Both times he discovered that the team was better with him starting.

I dont really see anyway he doesnt remain the starter this upcoming year for the entire season. Stu is still the second best ballhandler on the team, one of the top two or three on ball defenders (D-Mo seemed to pass him last year and perhaps Timmy or Colton are better), one of the top shooters, and one of the only guys that can create a shot off the dribble (even if he doesnt finish well, it still provides diversity to the offense). Even if THJr. is outplaying him, I think Beilein will still keep Stu starting.

The bigger question should be, who is going to finish the game?

I’ll take some of that action. I’ll bet you Stu doesn’t start every game this reason. The coach has tried to bring him off the bench the prior 2 seasons. What makes you think he won’t do it again?

I know I’m in the minority here but I think Horford is our starting center by the end of the season. I think he becomes that active inside presence that we need from that spot. Hopefully, McLimans and Smote can then man the PF spot which keeps Novak in the backcourt.

Who knows how Colt fits into all of this.

Yeah I’m with you FL Wolve… No way Stu starts every game this year, especially if he replicates the horrid shooting performance he had at times last year. He hasn’t shown any promising signs of dramatic improvement, at least on this trip. Right now THJr is scoring the most points for our team. Since we want points, there is no way he doesn’t start over Stu at some point this season.

I don’t think there was much question as to whether Vogrich could shoot the rock, but what remains to be seen for me is if he still remains a defensive liability against more athletic teams (as he was last season)…

Hmmm. 40% 3p over what – 29 % last year?- is not dramatic? Tough crowd.

FL Wolves,

I have a hard time believing that Horford would not RS. His game lack polish and needs to bulk up. He’s too skinny to play the 5 position this season.

I guess I just don’t see Stu and THJr competing for the same minutes.

I see Stu and Darius taking up 90% of the minutes at both guards, playing together.

I see THJr/Vogrich taking up 80% of the minutes at the 3, and maybe the other 10% of the minutes at guard. Sprinkle some Eso in there possibly.

I see Novak taking the rest of the minutes at the 3 and half the minutes at the four, and Metrics with the other half.

The 5 is the only positions with no overlap, and that will obviously be the redshirt big guys and maybe one of the young’uns.

I know nothing, but I think redshirting Horford takes the pressure off recriting as we’ll have a big for next year’s class. Not that we wouldn’t take two bigs, but we’d have an option instead of a need. Stu is underrated by many, as his sense of the game is outstanding and although he has limtitations he doesn’t have weaknesses.

other than darius i think every position is up for grabs………there is really no way around it………i hope stu does not start come the middle or end of the year because that means somebody like vogrich or hardaway have stepped there games up and thats exactly what needs to happen

I think there’s plenty of talent on the team. Defense has to be emphasized all year long instead of just the second half like last year. Good defense will keep them in tough games and if you’re in the game there’s always a chance you can win it. The team will be fun to watch especially as it matures throughout the season.

Nice coverage of this trip Dylan.

I’d love to redshirt Horford this year to balance out the classes. I just think he might be forced into action for various reasons.

I’d like to see Horford redshirted too. Evens out the classes, let’s him fill out a little bit, and gives him a little more time to get comfortable. I have a feeling Horford is going to be an absolute rebounding machine by the time he’s done here too, so might as well get as much use as we can from him.

I actually think Horford is going to be the most talented of the bigs on the current roster, though the value of having him redshirt is significant. I like the Deven Gardner analogy.

I like Stu and I think he might be the best perimeter defender. I’d like to see Novak and Vogrich get some of his minutes though. I see THJR playing the 3 all season. Stu can start and play, but not 36 minutes.

Giddings -

Earlier you posted about the need for Michigan to shoot better from outside. I don’t see any way that they hit for a 37-38% from 3pt range – too many shots from too many players.

But here’s a blog entry about exactly what you’re saying:
http://blog.mlive.com/thediag/2010/04/can_john_beileins_offense_succ.html

In a nutshell, if Michigan shot the conference average of 34.5% in ever game they played (a simplistic assumption obviously) they could have realistically gone 20-12 overalll and 9-9 in the conference.

Record: 18-13 for 2010-2011

Date Opponent / Event Location Time / Result

Nov. 13 vs. South Carolina Upstate Ann Arbor, Mich. 7:00 p.m. ET 1-0
2010 Legends Classic
Nov. 18 vs. Bowling Green Ann Arbor, Mich. 7:00 p.m. ET 2-0
Nov. 21 vs. Gardner-Webb Ann Arbor, Mich. 2:00 p.m. ET 3-0
Nov. 26 vs. Syracuse Atlantic City, N.J. 8:00 p.m. ET 3-1
Nov. 27 Georgia Tech/UTEP . 5:30/8 p.m. ET 3-2

ACC/Big Ten Challenge
Tue., Nov. 30 at Clemson Clemson, S.C. 9:00 p.m. ET 3-3

Dec. 4 vs. Harvard Ann Arbor, Mich. 1:00 p.m. ET 4-3
Dec. 6 vs. Concordia (Mi) Ann Arbor, Mich. 7:00 p.m. ET 5-3
Dec. 10 vs. Utah Ann Arbor, Mich. 6:30 p.m. ET 6-3
Dec. 14 vs. North Carolina Central 7:00 p.m. ET 7-3
Dec. 18 vs. Oakland Ann Arbor, Mich. 12:00 p.m. ET 8-3
Dec. 23 vs. Bryant University 7:00 p.m. ET 9-3

Dec. 28 vs. Purdue * Ann Arbor, Mich. 2:00 p.m. ET 9-4
Jan. 2 vs. Penn State * Ann Arbor, Mich. 4:00 p.m. ET 10-4
Jan. 5 at Wisconsin * Madison, Wis. 7:30 p.m. CT 10-5
Jan. 9 vs. Kansas Ann Arbor, Mich. 1:30/4:30 p.m. ET 10-6
Jan. 12 vs. Ohio State * Ann Arbor, Mich. 6:30 p.m. ET 10-7
Jan. 15 at Indiana * Bloomington, Ind. 8:00 p.m. ET 10-8
Jan. 18 at Northwestern * Evanston, Ill. 8:00 p.m. CT 11-8
Jan. 22 vs. Minnesota * Ann Arbor, Mich. 7:00 p.m. ET 12-8
Jan. 27 at Michigan State *East Lansing, Mich.7:00 p.m. ET 12-9
Jan. 30 vs. Iowa * Ann Arbor, Mich. 4:00 p.m. ET 13-9
Feb. 3 at Ohio State * Columbus, Ohio 7:00 p.m. ET 13-10
Feb. 6 at Penn State State College, Pa. Noon/3 p.m. ET 14-10
Feb. 9 vs. Northwestern * Ann Arbor, Mich. 6:30 p.m. ET 15-10
Feb. 12 vs. Indiana * Ann Arbor, Mich. 4:00 p.m. ET 16-10
Feb. 16 at Illinois * Champaign, Ill. 7:30 p.m. CT 16-11
Feb. 19 at Iowa (1) Iowa City, Iowa 3:30 p.m. CT 17-11
Feb. 20 at Iowa (1) * Iowa City, Iowa 12:00 p.m. CT
Feb. 23 vs. Wisconsin * Ann Arbor, Mich. 6:30 p.m. ET 17-12
Feb. 26 at Minnesota * Minneapolis, Minn. 3:30 a.m. CT 18-12
Mar. 5 vs. Michigan State *Ann Arbor, Mich. 2:00 p.m. ET 18-13

AC, Stu might be the best perimeter defender on last season’s team, but none of us have actually seen what THJr and Vogrich are capable for the coming season, and the fact that Vogrich leads the team in rebounding in the 4 exhibition games shows that he might be much improved.

There are many reasons that Horford should be redshirt. And there are only two reasons that he should not. First, either McLimans or Morgan is badly injured. Two, he is so good that playing him will make us into to the tournament. I certainly do not hope for the first but hardly see the second be realistic. It is pretty much the same story for Devin Gardner. He will play if both Tate and Denard are injured, or he will give us the victory against the buckeyes.

I will be surprised if Horford red shirts. I think he has some real talent and can play right away. Doyl Green -nice work I hope you are right that would be a great season. Think we might be abit worse but holding out for an NIT birth. Vogrich and Douglas are the keys in that if they can shoot a good percentage from 3 we will win our share.

Regarding Devin Gardner, coaches aren’t planning on redshirting him. I was told that he’s going to see PT regardless of injuries or performance from Denard and Tate. Coaches wants him to get some game experience so he can get ready to possibly start for ’11 season.

Horford is a much surer bet to redshirt than DG. Horford is still raw and needs more developing than McLimans and Morgan.

Trey Burke has committed to UM as per espn:
(http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/recruiting/tracker/school?schoolId=130&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fncb%2frecruiting%2ftracker%2fschool%3fschoolId%3d130)

and Rivals:
http://rivals.yahoo.com/michigan/basketball/recruiting/player-Trey-Burke-81659;_ylt=AhuWRMqX_0zSj8vL5l8BXOZcspB4

as per this recruiting we’ve now got 5 guys who are top 100 (espn) recruits in the past three years, with 1 (d-mo), 2 (smot, THJ) and 2 (CB and Burke, who is #99). With the rest of the year to go, I think Belein has done a pretty good recruiting job this year, and if proving he’s a good recruiter.

Obviously depending on the year, but I think that if anything were to be extrapolated from the EU play and the recent pick-up, it would be that we’re going to be all over Amir this year to recruit the big man, or at least a decent big man. With top 100 recruits (2011 sophomores or freshies) at 1 (Burke), 2 (CB), 3 (THJ), and 4 (smot), not to mention D-mo, a rising junior at that time, we’d be looking for a post pressence to at least rebound. What say you? Anyways, I think next year will be a great year, with much greater talent (not necesarily results, but at least these recruits are ranked…no offense Novak and Dougless).

With such a young team, Doyl, I have a hard time projecting another sweep of Minnesota and Northwestern, and I think we’d lose at least one of Iowa or Penn State on the road. After all, I remember 2007 when we lost to CMU at home with Udoh, Manny, and Peedi.

how late was I with the Burke thing?

billiam: Dylan was the first to break the news of Burke’s commitment, so you can look on this board for the announcement and learn just how late you were. No biggy though, it’s exciting news whenever you hear it.

Wasn’t Vogrich a top 100 guy or was that on Rivals?

Vogrich was 97 on Scout, 137 on Rivals.

?

didn’t find Vogrich in Scout’s current list of 2009 top 100, but he is 137 on Rival’s list of 2009 top 150:
http://rivals.yahoo.com/michigan/basketball/recruiting/player-Matt-Vogrich-73163;_ylt=AoYzGRVb3dSYpxfC4XYxxa1cspB4

Rivals 2012 rankings has Haris, J Hollowell, Ferell, Staukas, Murphy, Kaleb T , Glenn R III but didn’t see prospects from MI on the list:
http://rivals.yahoo.com/michigan/basketball/recruiting/rankings/rank-2509;_ylt=Al9d5gEGebJmBhrdz1KD5RhgspB4

Scout’s top 75 was similar — couldn’t find prospects from MI on the list:
http://michigan.scout.com/a.z?s=162&p=9&c=4&cfg=bb&pid=88&yr=2012

Good v. Bad on Eurotrip…
GOOD:
Hardaway avg 12 points w/only 1 turnover in 25 mins per game. Aamazing for freshman playing in another country on new team!

Low turnovers for team (except Morgan 8 in 60mpg) in these cirumstances (assuming defense played at all)–including ZERO turnovers from true freshman Horford in his 35 minutes!

Vogrich 72 eFG%–tho mostly due to break-out game.

BAD:
Awful 2 point shooting by Horford (14%), Douglass (20%–tho 50% threes), McLimans (27%)–the latter two among most experienced and expecting big minutes. Hopefully NO more 4 game stretches with that kind of shooting from inside the arc and/or lane!

Awful 3 point (0%) and FT shooting (20ish?) from Morris. I’d give a slight mulligan on threes with the longer line and jet-lag thing, but the freethrows brings back concerns of last season. Needs DMo to make at 25+% threes and 60+% frees.