Point guard is the hardest position to play as a true freshman. Similar to the quarterback position on the football field, the point guard has an overwhelming amount of responsibility. First, he has to have a great understanding of the offense. He is also typically tasked with defending one of the opposition’s best players. And even more importantly, he has to keep the team grounded through thick and thin because he has the ball in his hands every possession.
Because of the stress surrounding the point guard position, it’s very hard to find true freshmen making a major impact as point guards. The John Walls, Derrick Roses, and Mike Conleys of the world are the exception rather than the norm.
The strenuous nature of the point guard position is also why I think that Darius Morris has the ability to make a major jump in production from year one to year two.
Inconsistency is the trademark of a freshman point guard. Flashes of brilliance are intertwined with boneheaded turnovers. It’s no surprise that teams led by freshmen point guards also tend to be woefully inconsistent.
Let’s take a look at this year’s freshman point guards who were rated in the top 100 and see how they have fared this year. I pulled a group of the top 15 point guards (using RSCI, Rivals, and Scout rankings) and then looked up their basic stats: min/game, min%, points/game, offensive rating, usage, assist%, turnover %.
| Avg Rank | MPG | M% | PPG | eFG | Ortg | Usage | A% | TO% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Mason – Griffin | 6.3 | 35.0 | 86.7 | 14.0 | 52.1 | 107.4 | 22.5 | 26.8 | 19.7 |
| John Wall | 1.0 | 34.3 | 81.9 | 16.8 | 50.3 | 110.4 | 26.8 | 33.5 | 24.2 |
| Eric Bledsoe | 6.0 | 30.3 | 72.3 | 10.7 | 51.4 | 96.0 | 20.7 | 18.4 | 31.3 |
| Raymond Penn | 9.3 | 30.5 | 62.7 | 7.8 | 44.8 | 98.1 | 16.1 | 17.3 | 20.9 |
| Mfon Udofia | 5.7 | 23.7 | 59.0 | 7.3 | 44.5 | 91.9 | 19.6 | 17.6 | 25.4 |
| Darius Morris | 14.0 | 23.7 | 58.7 | 4.6 | 43.7 | 91.6 | 15.4 | 22.2 | 25.7 |
| Jordan Hulls | 12.3 | 23.6 | 58.6 | 6.0 | 54.0 | 113.7 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 18.0 |
| Ramon Galloway | 18.5 | 21.5 | 53.7 | 7.1 | 47.0 | 95.1 | 19.3 | 11.0 | 22.9 |
| Abdul Gaddy | 2.0 | 19.4 | 48.2 | 4.3 | 40.3 | 84.7 | 16.6 | 20.0 | 28.3 |
| Michael Dixon | 16.5 | 17.2 | 42.8 | 7.5 | 53.1 | 115.3 | 19.7 | 19.3 | 15.7 |
| Lamont Jones | 11.0 | 18.0 | 42.6 | 5.8 | 43.0 | 86.1 | 21.4 | 17.5 | 22.2 |
| Maalik Wayns | 3.3 | 15.7 | 39.3 | 7.8 | 49.0 | 106.1 | 23.8 | 15.6 | 21.3 |
| Chris Colvin | 12.7 | 14.9 | 32.9 | 3.1 | 33.3 | 68.4 | 22.4 | 24.4 | 35.9 |
| Peyton Siva | 6.3 | 11.5 | 26.3 | 4.3 | 57.7 | 98.5 | 22.9 | 26.5 | 33.6 |
| Elijah Johnson | 3.5 | 7.7 | 21.7 | 2.9 | 62.1 | 117.1 | 21.7 | 34.2 | 26.7 |
| Johnie Lacy | 18.5 | 8.2 | 18.5 | 1.7 | 26.5 | 85.6 | 15.4 | 12.1 | 18.3 |
| Average | 21.0 | 50.4 | 7.0 | 47.1 | 97.9 | 19.8 | 20.6 | 24.4 | |
| Avg w/o Wall | 20.0 | 47.9 | 6.5 | 46.7 | 97.2 | 19.6 | 20.2 | 24.7 |
The results were pretty clear, there are only a couple point guards who have been successful this year. There are only three freshmen point guards who are scoring in double figures and two of them play on the same team. There are only four freshmen with a higher assist percentage than turnover percentage. Finally, over half of the top 100 freshmen point guards in the group are shooting under a 50% effective field goal percentage on the year.
The group that I would call successful includes John Wall (UK), Eric Bledsoe (UK), Tommy Mason-Griffin (Oklahoma), and Michael Dixon (Mizzou). In the end, the “average” top 15 freshman point guard has more turnovers than assists, doesn’t shoot the ball very well and isn’t all that efficient. The average stat line is 21 min, 6.5 ppg, 47.1 eFG, 97.9 Ortg, 20.6 A%, 24.4 TO%. And that’s including freshman phenom John Wall, removing him knocks everything down a point or so.
There are also a few guys who play complementary roles on loaded teams. Brandon Triche (not listed in the table) starts at the point for Syracuse but he plays alongside 5th year senior Andy Rautins. Maalik Wayns has been efficient for Villanova but he’s playing alongside guys like Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher.
Looking at the group of freshmen, Darius Morris is just about right in the middle, a touch below average, compared to the other prized point guard recruits. Morris’ numbers are: 24.5 minutes, 4.6 points, 22.2 A%, 25.7 TO%, 91.6 ORtg.
So while Darius Morris’ season might still be a little disappointing from the eyes of Michigan fans that expected an instant impact player. I think it might be a little too early to rush to a conclusion.
Morris has shown flashes of potential. He’s big, athletic, and willing to defend. He seems to have good lateral quickness and has shown improvement over the course of the season. It’s also pretty clear he has some glaring weaknesses. His shot is fundamentally flawed and needs tweaking, especially from three point range and he still tries to make a few too many fancy plays.
But in the end, he appears to be a pretty average top 100 freshman point guard. The future is bright for Darius Morris, despite taking a few lumps this year. An offseason to focus on improving his jump shot and continue getting acclimated with the offense is just what the doctor ordered.
One of the immesurables w. Darius is effect on the rest of the offense. Beilein talked about the team running more this year and I don’t think it really happened, though it has certainly happened more lately. Michigan desperately needs more easy buckets in transition, and I think a confident Darius will provide that.
Dylan: could it be more important for him to develop a strong pull-up j than to be scintillating from 3-pt land? (Yeah, he has to be a threat.) You’re the expert; I just come here.
When comparing D-Mo’s numbers against other point guards, it’s imperative to point them into the context of the offenses the point guards lead. Mizzou’s frenetic up and down pace, UKs free-for-all, and OKs flex are all vastly different offensive systems that feature different skill sets for each position.
This is pretty typical right? I don’t remember the link but someone did a credible study of freshman PG and found that only the elite (top 30 players nationally or so) tend to have a significant positive impact on their teams fortunes as freshman. Hopefully Darius is learning a lot this season. We’ve certainly seen some positive flashes.
Minnesota game torrent from Senior Night is up:
http://mgovideo.com/details.php?id=180&hit=1
Good stuff, Dylan. Would be interesting to see the top 100 PGs from the year before and how they performed as freshman vs. sophomores
Agree with most everything in here. This was mostly to serve as a reminder that freshmen point guards aren’t slam dunks from the get-go.
It would be interesting to do last year’s freshmen as sophomores… I’ll have to put that on the list.
morris is going to be very good, thats the bottom line
On topic – it is great to see the progress Morris has made. With Grady back to spell him next year Douglas can blossom at the 2.
Off topic – Dylan, since I am not a numbers guy, just how good is a 1.58 points per possession game? Like batting 350? 400? Happens how often?
– Against the Spartans Sunday I am looking for progress offensively compared to the way they totally locked us down last year at Breslin. Any effectiveness at all will show improvement, which I fully expect to see.
“With Grady back to spell him?” you mean in practice, right? will grady be eligible to play in games next season?
Just wanted to point out that the starting PG for the #1 team in the country (Syracuse) is a freshman. Brandon Triche has had a pretty solid year. He does have the luxury of having a really good backup PG to come in in case he struggles in Scoop Jardine.
Good call on Triche. He was outside the top 100 so I overlooked him. Still higher TO numbers than assist numbers but he shoots the ball well. Doesn’t hurt that he’s playing next to Rautins who is a 5th a year senior in the backcourt. Added a quick blurb to the article about Triche.
Mattski, you are singing my song. If Darius can develop a little floater or any sort of mid-range jumper, he becomes a dangerous part of the offense.
From my understanding, Grady could play bball if he wanted and it wouldn’t really affect his scholarship situation for football, so if he wanted to and the coaches thought it would be a viable option, he could play and not count against our scholarships. I hesitate to say that he would be a big factor though.
I too remember hearing Beilein say his team might play more uptempo this year, and they started off that way vs. Northern and Creighton, but once it became clear they couldn’t really defend anyone and that their offense was shooting blanks, they had to sit on the ball to stop the bleeding in a lot of games.
MarcO
March 4, 2010 at 3:45 pm
Mattski, you are singing my song. If Darius can develop a little floater or any sort of mid-range jumper, he becomes a dangerous part of the offense.
Not to be overly negative, but this is the same thing we said about Grady last year, and he was even better at creating space for himself than Morris.
To be honest, I don’t know how you get to college as a guard without having developed some kind of shot along the way, but hey ho. I’m not ruling it out.
Well, Sid: he was–what?–the 14th ranked guard in the country? A few people thought he had talent. But the word was always that he needed to work on his shot. Stu, meanwhile, was said to be a fantastic 3-shooter, though. . . hard to see this year.
Still, like I’m trying to say above, many things a good pt guard does translate into points, as you well know. Obviously, Michigan has a lot of departing points to replace next year. But if Darius is up to 6-8 ppg now and gets us 6-7 assists p.g. next yr things are looking up. The best we could say for Stu at the point, much of the time, is that he was able to hang onto the ball (actually a darned fine ball handler). Take that pressure off of him and I’ll bet his shot begins to fall. Dunno, I’m just feeling optimistic. . .
There are things to like about Morris that Grady just didn’t have. Morris has also already showed the ability to go to the hole, just has to work on finishing. Grady didn’t do much of that, ever. Also, I don’t expect Grady will be back but you never know I guess.
I dont think Grady will be back either and even if he does get back on the team, he wont be able to play until January (please make a bowl next year!). I have a hard time seeing him crack the rotation after arriving several months late and without having played bball competitively in almost two years.
Morris has definitely developed nicely. Confidence is a big thing and its clear that his has grown. He has learned when to attack the basket and how to finish in traffic. Not to mention he has passed DOuglass as the best on ball defender. His future is very bright even if he does not develope a good outside shot. He has great size and pretty good athleticism.
Honestly, looking at his mechanics this year and not just how bad they are, but also they are inconsistent from shot to shot, I have hard time seeing him becoming a solid shooter. I just hope he becomes decent enough that guys have to somewhat guard him.
I’m definitely excited about Morris more than any freshman/sophomore on the team. He’s a lanky 6’4, plays ferocious defense, and has great passing ability.
Morris has looked more comfortable in Beilein’s offense and in the half-court game and I’m excited for his improvement.
As I recall Grady is practicing with the team and has two years that he can play. He’s had to attend games as a spectator because of compliance time limits and his off season foot ball committment. I certainly may be out of date, but that’s the last I’ve heard, and I have no reason to believe it is unlikely that he will play next year and the one after.
Morris doesn’t need to put up 15 pts a game to be a great PG for Mich. We definitely get more transition looks when he’s in the game, his athleticism and intensity make him a great on-the-ball defender, and he has definitely shown flashes of being able to get to the hoop and create for others. For a freshman he plays smart and handles ball pressure well. And my favorite thing about him is he really does act like a quarterback out there. He’s constantly dictating others where to cut, where to position, where to set screens. This is what a true point guard does. So if he hasn’t met some people’s expectations, then maybe those people need a reality check. Now if he ever does develop a pull jumper, then B10 beware.
given his tendency to try fancy plays, i think darius rucker might be a gem of a nickname.
i look forward to him being the experienced pure point guard of the talent we’ll bring in over the next 3 years
Maxwell’s demon post is pretty spot on. Concurrence here.
Looking at Darius’ shot, I still don’t think it looks terrible…It certainly doesn’t go in much, but his form is not awful…He has a good rotation on his shot, just not enough of it, maybe he is just shooting too much from the palms…
Morris improved tremendously over the season, let’s hope he continues.
Morris’ Summer Schedule
1. Get up and shoot 500 jumpers
2. Eat lunch
3. Lift weights
4. Shoot 400 jumpers
5. Eat dinner
6. Shoot 100 free throws
Heck, I’d take him over Korie Lucious already!
Every time I’ve seen Morris play over the past 6 or 7 games, I’ve found myself repeating “He’s going to be a good one.”
Maxwell’s post was indeed spot on. He already does things that Grady never did (defend). Grady was a one man press breaker, but you also can’t teach 6’4″ at the PG position. He’s got really good handles, and stays away from making that bone-headed freshman play for the most part. The sky’s the limit with this kid. I really like his game. If he works on his shot and gets the offense down pat, he will be dangerous next year and beyond.
Brad did you really just say that Morris’ shot has good rotation?
LMAO, no rotation whatsoever
Hate to gang up on you Brad, but you must be watching a different Morris if you think he has good rotation on his shot. Look again his shot has no back spin.
how bout this penn st. msu game?
wonder if this is a good sign for michigan or bad…
Bummer – Amir Williams and Ray McCallum’s Detroit Country Day team just lost to Romulus (http://highschoolsports.mlive......s-a-dandy/)
Looks like MSU is going to win. They certainly won’t come out flat versus Michigan, on senior night, for a B10 title.
dcd has not been as good as advertised in years. their coach is not a great coach, just a recruiter with a hell of a mustache. i’m not surprised they lost to a romulus, a legit high school team…
beat the spartans
Mount Pleasant broke their win streak today with a loss at Saginaw Heritage. Trey had 24 pts, 13 rebs, 5 blks, & 5 assist.
Dmo’s shot looks like a knuckle with side-spin. definitely needs to get better, But if the shooting God John Belein can’t fix his shot, no one
can. (assuming he works on it relentlessly)
Dylan does that mean that zeigler is eliminated from the playoffs and his season is over? If so he can finally focus on recruiting and sign his Loi to michigan
Nope. Playoffs haven’t started yet.
It’s amazing iwas watching dmo in warmups when I went to one of their games and he made like 10 in a row and his shot actually looked good. But when the game actually begins he shoots terrible
Alright I didn’t think they started but then I heard hardaway was done
Yeah every state is on a different schedule.
Sid,
I remember Grady being out of control most of the times he had the ball and that was why he lost all of his playing time and ultimately left the team.
Tweeter, I meant the spin of the ball is true…He does not get much rotation, but it’s not spinning off axis when he shoots …I should have clarified that
DMo will be a great one. Remember, it takes most players 1-2 years to really grasp Beilein’s sytem. That’s really what made CJ Lee, Merritt, and to an extent Stu and Novak so important last year…they seemed to be the first players to grasp the system. Beilein himself said each player is different, but usually it takes about 2 years.
I think by next season DMo will be a much better player with a better understanding of the system.
Erik: if that’s true then we can expect no big contributions from freshmen down the line. I wonder if early enrollment could help hoops the way it may help football.
Well, if Dylan’s chart is any indication, hardly anyone can expect big contributions from freshmen – at least not PGs.
And to be honest, I’m inclined to believe that a similar chart for centers or power forwards wouldn’t look much different.
The speed and size of the college game are an adjustment for everyone.
I think the easiest positions to make an impact as a true frosh is any kind of scorer. They can keep it simple and do what they do. Wing forwards, shooters, off guards.
I agree with you Dylan. Xavier Henry comes to mind.
Morris made a play Tuesday vs. MN that epitomizes his development under pressure: with about 6 seconds remaining in the first half, he drove almost the full length of the court, threw a bullet (but accurate) pass to Sims under the basket, who went up for the easy layup. It was beautiful.
yeah, I also wonder if Morris’ improvement even during this season is typical among the top 100 types…
Like, his assist rate is lower than his turnover rate, but over the last 10 games or so, i’m sure his numbers look a lot better.
Anyway, I wonder if all the guards on the list started slow and are finishing stronger like he is.
Morris’ assist #’s will look worse than most because he’s kicking the ball to 30% shooters around the arc. It’s hard to get assists when your teammates can’t put the ball in the basket.