BasicsWho: Michigan (13-15, 6-10) vs. Minnesota (17-11, 8-8) |
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Minnesota’s early February loss to Michigan might end up being the turning point in the Gophers’ season. After a home loss to a struggling Michigan team, Minnesota was on the mat with their bubble seemingly burst. This was the tune from Minnesota-folk after that loss:
I came into yesterday’s game with above-average expectations for a team that, for the most part, has underachieved all season. They’d been up and down for the better part of the last month but were coming off a stretch where they had won two of three and seemed to have been gaining some momentum after an exciting Penn State finish. A win over a struggling, down-on-their-luck Wolverines squad at home was going to propel the Gophers into a season-saving finish that would land them in the Big Dance. Minnesota, instead, virtually demolished any hope of saving a spot in the field of 65 and, barring a miraculous turnaround, all but stamped their ticked to the NIT…maybe.
But now Minnesota is back on track. What changed? Minnesota plays zone.
Now the Gophers have gone big, gone zone, and gone on a 3-1 run with only a one point loss to Purdue. Back on the bubble, the Gophers aren’t likely to come out flat again like they did against the Wolverines. They can’t afford to. They also can’t afford to let Manny Harris and Deshawn Sims play two on five and dominate. Thanks to the zone the driving lanes won’t be open, and whomever is stuck guarding Sims will have automatic weak side help.
Tuesday’s game will come down to what every game since the zone switch comes down to, hoping and praying that the threes don’t fall.
So there you have it. Minnesota is going to dare Michigan to do the one thing they haven’t been able to do all season long. Shoot the three. Michigan has shown heart down the stretch but they have been unable to close out close games and they remain painfully unable to shoot the ball at a respectable rate.
I previewed Minnesota extensively the first time around (first with an interview and then with a traditional preview) so we will keep it a bit light this time around.
Minnesota is typically thought of as a defensive team but they have actually been more efficient on the offensive side of the ball in conference play. Minnesota is great shooting team. They shoot 50.4% on two point shots and a blistering 39.9% on threes. Minnesota doesn’t turn it over much (19% of possessions) but they also don’t get to the free throw line very often. Finally, Minnesota is respectable on the offensive and defensive glass but not overpowering.
Defensively, Minnesota has changed a bit with their switch to the zone defense. In their past four games, Minnesota’ opponents are turning the ball over on only 11.7% of possessions. This is obviously because of Minnesota’s zone, the Gophers aren’t pressuring the ball nearly as much. I tend to think this is bad news for Michigan. Michigan typically protects the ball well, even against aggressive defenses. By not pressuring the ball, Minnesota has the length and athleticism to be able to sit back and wreak havoc in the paint.
Here’s a quick breakdown of Minnesota’s main personnel:
- Devoe Joseph: The new starting point guard is solid and loves the pull up jump shot.
- Blake Hoffarber: 48% three point shooter who just can’t be left open.
- Lawrence Westbrook: Clutch. Westbrook is the Gophers leading scorer and he seems to always make the big shots down the stretch.
- Ralph Sampson: The big man is a great shot blocker but still developing offensively but he did have a monster 21 points (7-11) 7 rebound game versus Purdue.
- Damian Johnson: Long and athletic, Johnson is one of the best defenders in the Big Ten. He blocks shots, gets steals, and crashes the glass.
- Paul Carter: Backup wing forward that killed Michigan in the first meeting, hit 4 of 5 shots for 11 points in 23 minutes.
The key for Michigan is going to be to hit the three. Michigan hasn’t fared well against teams that pack it in and dare them to shoot. Hopefully they are well prepared for the zone but even if they are, it still comes down to execution. Michigan has seemingly had Minnesota’s number over the past two seasons so it would be nice if they could figure out a way to beat them once more and come out victorious on senior night.
Vegas likes Minnesota by one while Pomeroy’s projections take Minnesota by two with a 41% chance of Michigan victory. Lets hear your thoughts, predictions, and whatever else in the comments.
Send the seniors out on a good note Blue. Good luck.
I actually think we pull this one out, all but ending Minnesota’s tourney dreams. I think Peedi will have a huge night, in his final game at Crisler. Michigan 64 Minnesota 57.
Also, I’m going to check out 2012 recruit Yogi Ferrel tonight as his Park Tudor squad opens up sectional play. I’ll let you guys know how things go for him. I have seen him once this season, a near triple double performance in a blow out win over my alma mater.
Michigan 63, Minnesota 59. Last win of the season.
I’ll be recording the game tonight and will have it on MGoVideo.com if we win.
Also, I too will be out and about as Indiana High Schools open up sectional play tonight. However, I don’t believe there will be any Division 1 recruits at the place I’ll be at.
Lord, please let the 3s fall down like rain tonight, from Manny, Stu, and Zack. And grant your anointed, Peedi Simms, the power and the glory to dominate inside. Oh, and give us some steady D from “D”Mo and one or two lay-ins on the fast break. Keep the passes clean and the back door open for anyone who comes in unnoticed late.
P.S. Heck, if you’re in a more generous mood let LLP hit the broad side of a barn, too. You’ve been so stingy w. that guy of late. . .
how do the tiebreakers for conference champion work? my only hope at this point is that there can be a situation where a win sunday gets a conference championship for sparty, and we ruin it.
besides that, have we had a single good shooting game at home? i’m hearing lots of bricks while minnesota crowds deshawn and the driving lanes in their zone on the way to an ugly, low scoring, loss.
If everyone wins out. It will be a 3 way tie. OSU will get the #1 seed but all teams will claim a conference championship.
Russell?
Ay yi yi. I need an editor
Thanks.
Let’s not forget that we shot 50% from three-point range against the Gophers a few weeks ago… obviously it’s been our biggest struggle all season (especially at home) but there have been (very few) flashes in the pan.
Been watching too much of Kevin Durant and Co. Dylan?
Side note – how nice would it be to have a shooter like Hoffarber (48% with lots of attempts) in Beilein’s offense? Please… Vogrich… Hardaway… someone…
So its looking like Michigan’s path to the NCAA tournament would probably be Iowa – OSU – Wisconsin – MSU. Yay!
@AG2…. YIKES.
3-4 versus those teams AG2
Be positive. Ha.
I think we could take Wisconsin on a neutral court if we had already won 2 in a row. They always seem to shoot the lights out at Crisler versus us but not so much other places.
Beating Ohio State, with Turner, looks almost impossible though. I think they win the BTT.
I’m abnormally upbeat about a rematch with OSU. We hung fairly tough on the road Saturday and that was with fairly lackluster performances from Sims/Harris. I’ll take Beilein over Matta any day of the week in a short time rematch. If Sims wants to end his career on a high note, he’ll be bringing it next week. Only problem, we’ll be playing back to back and they’ll be on a week’s rest… eff.
I’ve had some hope throughout the season, most recently predicting a win over Illinois in a valiant effort. That didn’t go so well. This team has repeatedly beat the optimism out of me.
Tonight:
Minny 68
Mich 54
I’m out of town, looks like I can’t watch the game. In response to Dylan, not only were we 3-4 versus those teams, but we were a few baskets short of being 5-2 (home against MSU, at Wisco). The thing is, Michigan’s style of play is conducive for upsets, so if we catch one of the Big Ten Giants sleeping, Michigan could win some of those tough games.
I’m mostly looking to next year, so I’d like to see Darius Morris, LLP, and Douglass and Novak play up the last few games.
Speaking of next year. What would our rotation look like for next year if Manny comes back. Will we get any contributions from our freshmen class or will they be designated redshirts like this season? We need players who can come in and play right away. This is not football where we can redshirt guys and expect depth to pick up the slack, because the freshmen our the depth.
Starters:
Morris
Douglass
Harris (hopefully)
Novak
Morgan
Off the Bench:
Zeigler (hopefully)
LLP
Vogrich
Hardaway
Smotrycz
McLimans
Horford (possibly)
anybody know who the 2011 wing that was offered just saw a rivals story stating beilein offered a 2011 wing?
The crowd here is just depressing. The place is empty. Sad to see Peedi go out like this honestly.
I highly doubt Zeigler would come off the bench if he came here.
Zeigler would start from day one. Too much talent to keep off the court.
If we actually got Trey and Manny stayed, I think that he and Morris might be the only returning starters, possibly Novak at 4 over Evan.
nice, gus johson. not surprising start, novak misses hoffarber makes
ok, so i’m always defending the big ten network analysts from other people talking crap about them…but jeez, you would think after all season, they would stop saying we play the 1-3-1 all the time
Not able to watch the game since I at a high school game, but I see we have attempted 5 three’s in the first 4 minutes of the game. Definitely not the start I was hoping for.
i do like this small lineup, novak at the 2, gibson at the 4. that was fun.
Manny–and one!
So far so good, just as long ass we stop slacking on Hoffarber.
announcers blabbing about how beilein’s system can limit manny. meanwhile, manny scores 8 straight. ha give it up.
give it up announcers that is
How are we looking so far? Are we playing Gibson and Peedi at the same time? Looks like Manny is off to a good start.
haha, what the hell is this? this looks like the way i imagine our offense is supposed to look like.
also, i’m mystifed minnesota is not playing zone.
heez, and now a possession of 1-3-1 defense. what is this, a john beilein team? backdoors, 3s, alley oops, and 1-3-1. weird.
jeez, i mean
17-5 run for the good guys. Nice.
and tubby goes to zone, and our “shooters” torch it. seriously, what the hell is this?
they’re so fun to watch when they play this way. too bad it hasn’t been like this but 3, 4 times all year…and actually this is by ar the best. socring 1.58 ppp. insane.
Siiigh… where has this been all year? Also, I missed about the first ten minutes due to some bulls*** speech I had to attend, has LLP like not played or what? Seems to be working well..
Oh Tubby. Any sane coach would have had his guys foul on that last play, with 6 secs left and 2 fouls to give. I love it, how sick is Darius sometimes?
Can anyone give me an update on what we are doing differently, if anything? What line up have we been going with primarily?
bullets:
it’s amazing how everything opens up when the guards make some shots. i assumed the zone would kill us, but when minnesota went to it, we shot them right out of it.
i was loving novak playing guard, with gibby at 4…right up until novak got isolated against westbrook (i think) and it was game over. maybe it wasn’t westbrook, but the point is, novak can’t guard a guard.
the seniors are playing: really good bench minutes from gibson. and wright has a bad TO, i think, but he also drilled a three. so nice few minutes for him too.
they’ve fallen asleep on defense a few times. minny got an easy dunk in transition after a made basket…
again, it’s a tad frustrating how the beilein offense has to go outside in…we don’t get the backdoors, open lanes for interior passes until after we make some threes.
finally, minnesota took a terrible shot a the end of the half, and Dmo made em pay! for once the end of the half goes right.
Thanks gpsimms!! Hopefully they can keep it up. Bye the way, Yogi Ferrel is the real deal. Dude can do it all
Wow, you guys are dangerous when the shooting touch is there. Can you lose that by Sunday, please?
Well, I can tell you one thing, we’re not winning this game with defense. Minnesota is still shooting over 50%.
by the way, should have mentioned, for all the manny haters out there:
notice manny is totally “within the system” tonight? did manny suddenly become this unselfish, only smart shot taker?? (he’s 5-6 right now, i think)
no, of course not. the difference is when he looks to pass his teammates are knocking shots down. he looks great today, but he’s bringing the same game he does every night. he just looks “smarter” when he kicks it to a guy who actually makes a shot.
and at the end of a game where he has kicked it 10 times, and sees 9 bricks, so instead he decides to force something, for some reason everyone talks all this crap about him.
I haven’t been as stuck on a team since I was a kid, spending the summers following the Tigers w. my grandmother. Dunno why.
well said gp. Hard to argue with that. And this coming from someone who often bashes him.
Bottle some of this and save it for Sparty!
Another glimpse at how good Morris is going to be.
funny, manny kind of started trying to force things off the dribble right after i said that. another nce back door cut, there, though.
I wish I could be watching this game to see the send-off for Peedi.
tell me about it AG2, the best we have played all year and I choose to go watch a high school basketball game instead…..oh well I’m sure the BTN will replay it later tonight
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a player improve more in 4 years at Michigan than Peedi did. It will be sad to see him go.
please just look nearly this good on sunday.
Was Marshall Plumlee at the game? Sure looked like him. Looked like was having a good time.
Great win… Thanks to Peedi and Gibson. I’m glad the seniors went out with a win… Let’s beat Sparty this weekend.
Will this game be rebroadcast on the BTN?
12:30AM
Big Ten Men’s Basketball ’09-’10: Minnesota at Michigan (HD)
I’m a broken record. When you have a pt guard who can drive the lane, it’s a totally diff game.
Great offense, but yeah Dylan you’re right it’s too bad that this little crowd was Sims’ sendoff.
Awesome! I want to watch this one again.
New Offer: Marcus Crider
http://rivals.yahoo.com/wiscon.....ider-81636
2011 big man Marshall Plumlee was in town tonight for the game. Certainly a nice performance.. not the best crowd though.
Wow. great game tonight by the fellas. Although the crowd sucked, it was still a good way to go out for Peedi, Zach and Anthony. Nice that they all got to contribute as well.
Again, its pretty clear that the Beilein system works well when guys make open shots. Hopefully we can build off of this and carry some of the mo over to the weekend.
I also think it is pretty clear that Tubby Smith is a terrible game coach. The guy can recruit as well as any coach out there, but I have no clue what he is doing during games. If only him and Beilein could have a secret love child, and that secret love child could become the UM coach, we would be unstoppable. Tubby’s recruiting* with Beilein’s genius. Although, that would probably produce a dynasty similar to what Trinity college does in squash and therefore college basketball would become pointless.
*(I still do believe in Beilein in recruiting though and think the next two classes are gonna be good).
Brian, yes that was Plumlee. I was wondering who it was when I saw players talking to him. That dude needs to add about forty pounds, he made McLimans look swoll.
Oh, and that dunk by Williams was effing sweet. One of the few times I have ever applauded an opponent in Crisler.
Who is this new offer someone was talking about…
Needless to say, I’ll be uploading this game to MGoVideo later this week. Go Blue!
Tweeter thanks for the confirmation on Plumlee. Yeah, he’s pretty lean. He just a junior in high school, so he’ll hopefully have filled out a little by the time he gets to college. I’m glad he saw a win and the love that the crowd (albeit small) gave the seniors.
The dunk was sweet. It was funny that he got called for a foul on the other end right after, and Tubby took him out of the game.
I shoul have thanked Ant also… We’ll need him and the bench in the Big Ten Tourney since Zack and Manny can’t play the entire game three or four (keeping positive) games in a row.
Tweeter – I don’t know that Tubby is that great of a recruiter. His recruiting classes at Kentucky weren’t all that remarkable, given their standards. I think he’s a pretty good coach as far as teaching fundamentals goes. I do agree, though, that he doesn’t seem that great of a in-game strategist.
Drae, idk. aMaized posted about it. Markus Crider, a 6’6 wing from Ohio, class of 2011. I dont see UM offers on any of the sites though and a quick google stalk didnt reveal anything.
I thought he did pretty good at UK recruiting. Dont really remember though, so your probably right that he didnt do as well as UK should. I remember he had one great class at some point with Rondo and Crawford and a couple other guys.
I hate typing on my phone. It never fails that I miss a letter or something… to quote the Crisler Arena announcer, “Good night, Michigan.” Good win. Time to stop typing with a stylus now.
too bad, i was hoping for Ill. upset, plus Michigan upset sunday could give us a second round game vs. purdue with hummel out.
looks like we’ll have to beat the buckeyes. yuck.
@Tweeter & jmblue
Yeah, it’s funny about Tubby: He had just the opposite reputation at UK. Excellent game coach; relatively so-so recruiter. He did just fine with Pitino’s players — national title in year one, Elite Eight in year two — but was underwhelming thereafter (again, relatively speaking).
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Boooo your spam, booooo. Amazing performance, great to see Deshawn and the other seniors go out that way @ home. I don’t expect much from the MSU game and Big Ten tourney but who knows.
Go Blue.