Feb 19, 2010 at 1:45 pm by Dylan Burkhardt Filed under: 2009-2010 Season

Game 26: Penn State at Michigan Preview

Basics

Who: Michigan (13-12, 6-7) vs. Penn State (9-16, 1-12)
Where: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Saturday, February 20th, 6 PM EST
TV: BTN
Radio
: MGoBlue, WWJ 950 AM/WTKA 1050 AM
Line:
Stats: Live TFS
Opposition Blog: Battle Does it Again
Pomeroy Profile

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Michigan is looking for their first three game winning streak since beginning the season 3-0. They welcome last place Penn State into the friendly confines of Crisler Arena. Penn State is fresh off their first Big Ten win, an 81-70 upset at Northwestern.

As crazy as it seems, Penn State might be the best 1-12 Big Ten team in quite some time. Penn State ranks 103rd in Pomeroy’s ratings, ahead of fellow cellar dwellers Iowa and Indiana. Last year was a magical season for the Nittany Lions, they pulled upset after upset before coming up one game short of the NCAA tournament. This year’s Penn State team has fallen on the other side of the luck spectrum, Talor Battle’s magic hasn’t been quite as effective and they haven’t been able to win many close games. Sound familiar? Just a little bit.

Talor Battle is the catalyst for Penn State. He is one of the elite players in the conference and he can do it all: score, pass, and rebound. His supporting cast has struggled this year, but in their Wednesday night win at Northwestern they finally stepped up. Battle scored only 12.5% of Penn State’s points compared to his season total of 29.4%.

David Jackson, Chris Babb, and Jeff Brooks all range from 6’5″-6’8″ and average 7 to 10 points and 4 rebounds per game. They combined for 52 points in Penn State’s lone conference win but that was the first time they all scored in double figures during Big Ten play.

In the post, Penn State has a pair of Andrews. Andrew Jones III appears to ooze with potential but he’s averaging only 6 points and 5 rebounds per contest. 6’10″ Andrew Ott comes off the bench, averaging 4 points and 2 boards. The Nittany Lions main contributor off the bench is freshman backup point guard Tim Frazier.

Offensively, Penn State holds onto the ball and shoots it decently from the field. However for the most part their offense revolves around watching Talor Battle work. Penn State does have a few competent three point shooters and they shoot 33.6% from behind the arc as a team. Talor Battle’s prowess from beyond the arc is well known (35.5%) but David Jackson (38.3%) and Chris Babb (34.7%) can also hit the three.

Defensively, Penn State struggles to force turnovers and defend the three. Their opponents turn the ball over on less than 15% of their possessions in conference play. Michigan actually has the highest turnover percent versus Penn State of any Big Ten team, however most of that is because they turned the ball over 9 times in the first half (which was easily one of their worst halves of the year). In conference play, Penn State’s opponents are shooting 38% from three point range and a conference worst 54.2% effective field goal percentage. The one thing Penn State does extremely well on the defensive side of the ball is rebound, their defensive rebounding percentage of 74.8% is second in the nation.

Three point shooting is worlds more important than offensive rebounding for Michigan. I’d much rather play a great defensive rebounding team that lets opponents hit three point shots than vice versa. If Michigan holds onto the ball and hits threes, they will be in a good position to beat most teams regardless of offensive rebounding. Michigan is obviously used to winning without pulling down many offensive rebounds or shooting free throws.

Judging by Penn State’s performance versus Northwestern. Michigan should stay away from the 1-3-1 zone and stick to strictly man-to-man defense. Penn State picked Northwestern’ s 1-3-1 zone apart and the Wildcats run a much more effective 1-3-1 than Michigan.  Luckily Michigan has been playing man-to-man 95% of the time and it appears to be gradually improving.

Penn State’s lackluster shooting defense bodes well for Michigan, so maybe the hot three point shooting continues?. DeShawn Sims dominated the first match-up, scoring 25 points on 12 of 17 shooting. Big performances from Sims have been the norm this year in confernece play, he has scored 17+ points in 11 of 13 Big Ten games. Neither Andrew Jones or Andrew Ott are capable of defending DeShawn when he is on his game so Michigan would be well served to pound the ball inside early and often.

Pomeroy gives Michigan a 79% chance at victory with a score prediction of 65-58.  This is one of those “taking care of business” wins that Michigan needs to get if they are serious about finishing the season on a high note and shooting for a .500 conference record.  Let’s hear your thoughts and predictions in the comments.

P.S.: Michigan at Michigan State is slated for Sunday, March 7 at 4 p.m. on CBS.

P.P.S.: Calvin is planning on making the trip out to see Carlton Brundidge and Southfield take on Clarkston tonight. We should hopefully have a scouting report and video for you later this weekend.

  • umhoopsreader

    All dream scenarios start with the next game – Let’s Go Blue!
    Prediction: UofM 67 PSU 58

  • gpsimms

    it’s business, it’s business time!

    …then we sort the recycling, which is not
    part of the foreplay, but still very important…

    it’s business, it’s business time!

  • jwalk

    Reminds of my favorite quote of the season (& I believe it was during the 1st PSU game). (As Manny’s shooting free throws down the stretch): ‘Manny Harris is a business man on a business trip.’

  • Nick

    As a fan(atic) I will not solely hope for a strong finish and .500 conference record. As umhoopsreader mentioned, any dream scenario to finish this season starts with a win tomorrow. Unfortunately I can also see us blowing this one. Not in the cards though… UM 68 PSU 52 as we gain momentum to close out this season in historic fashion!

  • Alex

    Let’s get that winning streak Blue. As long as the team doesn’t underestimate the Lions we should be fine. We need to score early and often to demoralize the opponent and prevent them from thinking upset.

    Go Blue! Beat PSU!

  • http://umhoops.com Mattski

    They gave Izzo some heartburn before falling back against MSU last Saturday. Still, I’m thinking we play well tomorrow.

  • Tweeter

    So glad that NW lost to them the other day. I would be way more concerned if they were still winless in conference coming in especially with the way they played in the second half last game.

    I still think this will be a tough game, but I cannot imagine their role players playing that well two games in a row. I expect a big rebound game from D Mo and finally some good shooting at home.
    UM 77 PSU 65.

  • michigan hoops 4eva

    I agree with the analysis that Penn State is still a good team despite their record. I think Talor Battle is a top 5-big ten player, and with him on the floor things are always dangerous.

    That being said, if mental mistakes are kept to a minimum, Michigan hopefully won’t have a huge problem. Harris and Sims are just too much for Penn State to handle.

    I brought up this point earlier in the year, but I really do feel that if Laval Lucas-Perry stepped up as a third scorer, Michigan would be a top tier team. His performance against Iowa the other night really helped us out, and it’d be nice to make that a continuing trend.

  • fresh

    people like llp and morris need to do more……….they need that aggressive scoring mentality like manny has……..but they are pass first when they should be looking to score instead…….llp has the ability but doesnt display it, maybe its beileins offense but both him and morris could be doing more scoring on top of shooting 3s

  • http://umhoops.com Wayman Britt

    I know recruiting was the topic of the previous article. But, thanks Dylan for posting the video of Robin Benzing (I think). You are right watching him made me cry. Man he looked good! His shot and release looked perfect. He drove to the basket with authority.

    Oh! What could have been.

  • Drew

    Lol, I love what a couple wins in a row does to optimism around here. Should win tomorrow, although the last two times I’ve said that on here we lost both games. I still refuse to give in to any false hope about a miracle run to the NCAA’s. My soul has been crushed enough with football and basketball this year, I refuse to let it go any further.

  • InBeieinITrust

    In the last two games, sophomore guard Zack Novak is 4-of-6 from 3-point range, sophomore guard Stu Douglass is 4-of-8, junior guard Manny Harris is 6-of-11 and sophomore guard Laval Lucas-Perry is 3-of-6.

    What makes this more iimpressive is they did this on the road. It will be key that they keep it up going into a yough stretch.

  • Nicholas

    I was at the Iowa Michigan game an even though it was close, Iowa played like a Big Ten Championship Team. They hit all their threes when they needed to and got efficiency down low from Aaron Fuller also. Michigan is red hot and should win this game easily.

    71-56

    Michigan finishes the season: 17-13 (10-8) Only loss to Michigan State.

    Michigan bursts the NCAA Bubble beating out someone like Charlotte.

  • KevinTh

    What are the chances we offer Isiah Sykes if we lose out on Zeigler and Horford?

  • Old Style

    I just hope the team comes out with some urgency. Manny especially, he seems to settle for 3′s against teams he should dominate.

  • AG2

    I think Penn State could be tough inside. Manny and Peedi better come ready to play.

  • Kevin

    It’s funny to think that if we lose today people will be on here calling for Beilein’s head and demanding that Manny leaves because we’re better without him. But hey, I’m lovin’ the optimism.
    Umich 68-57

  • Tweeter

    Its like two people Kevin. Most fans on here believe in Beilein despite the struggles this year.

    Just watched one of those Benzing videos. Dang. That just makes me sad inside. It looked like he abused former Florida star Nick Calathes on one of those plays. Imagine this lineup: PG – Dmo or Stu, SG – Manny, SF – Robin Benzing, PF – Peedi, C – Udoh. Dmo or Stu, LLP, Novak, Gibson off the bench.

    That lineup could also wreck things with the 1-3-1. Udoh at the top, Manny and Benzing on the wings, Sims in the middle, and pg running the baseline.

  • Conrad

    give to ball to deshawn and let him do work

  • gpsimms

    is chris kramer making anyone else want to puke right now? never seen a kid get called “tenacious” and “gritty” and “tough” so many times for falling over after getting hit in the face.

    (he took a forearm to the face and left the game, the announcers spent the next five minutes talking about his toughness…then cued up the manny elbow clip as another example of ‘toughness’)

  • AG2

    Do they HAVE to keep referencing Manny Harris’ elbow to Chris Kramer’s face? Kramer takes shots a lot, so ESPN needs to get off Manny’s jock right quick.

  • Dylan

    Michigan wearing new long sleeve warm ups that have the adidas slogan “impossible is nothing” on the front with go blue on the back.

  • gpsimms

    i liked queme los barcos better, but whatever gets them revved up.

  • KDavis

    Chris Kramer can suck it.

    Go Blue. Now.

  • Tweeter

    Not much chatter today . . . cold shooting start for UM, but the defense looks solid.

  • eddie

    What’s with the arm sleeves? DMo has always sported one for chronic elbow pain, but now novak and stu? Is it style or injury?

  • Tweeter

    its style. Been around for a while. Iverson always used to wear one. The one that I really dont like is the full sleave under armour that some guys sport. I remember the Oklahoma guy wore one and even Evan Smotrycz had it going the last game I saw.

    UM heating up from three.

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    Darius had some kind of elbow issue I believe. Not sure about Stu and Zack.

  • Tweeter

    8-0 PSU run. UM missing threes now.

  • Drew

    Could this game have any less excitement or atmosphere? I’m falling asleep here. We look flat as hell.

  • gpsimms

    glad to see novak and llp are still hot shooting from three. er

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    Darius is playing tremendous defense on Talor Battle. Great to see

  • gpsimms

    ask, and receive….nice shot for novak

  • Tweeter

    I really like the fact that Douglass is starting to develope a dribble drive game. He hasnt been able to finish many shots over the last month, but he has shown that he can put the ball on the floor and create a shot. That bodes well for the future. He isnt going to become a huge scorer, but it looks like he may develope into a reliable low double digit type guy.

  • AG2

    I don’t like how easy Ott is getting inside.

  • Tweeter

    Manny killing it from three

  • Drew

    come on. put away this sorry excuse for a team.

  • gpsimms

    damn. i remember at the beginning of the year thinking manny’s shot looked a little better, and then a beilein quote: “manny’s jumper is just about perfect” or something like that…

    anyway, he really has been converting a hig% of 3′s last week or two.

  • Tweeter

    UM is losing guys all over on backdoor cuts and you cant give up a walk up three point.

    Morris has to figure out how to attack against sagging defenders. Right now his presence just creates congestion on offense when he has the ball. Guys also need to realize who they are passing to, Manny made a good move to continue reversing the ball there, except that the pass went to Morris.

  • gpsimms

    charge wha-? gibby and peedi together again

  • Drew

    Get. Peedi. The. Ball.

  • gpsimms

    i wish we could run the end of a half right, just once

  • Tweeter

    Not a great half but I see more things that we can correct than I see things that PSU can correct.

    Stop the backdoor cuts, do a little better job against dribble penetration and rebound. That should cover the defense.

    On offense, definitely need to force feed Peedi some more, but PSU actually did a pretty good job at fronting him for most of the half. We fell in love with the three a little too much but it looked like towards the end of the half they were probing a bit more.

  • AG2

    This is the second straight week Michigan is tied at the half in a game it looked like it was dominating. Two blown 9pt leads.

    Gotta establish Sims in the 2nd half. And hopefully a little defense.

  • michigan4204

    Its almost like the game plan is to do nothing but force 3′s and keep the ball out of Peedi’s hands. 3 shots for him is ridiculous. Obviously I know no one would ever plan to do something like that, but I seriously don’t understand. I’m pretty sure JB will make it a point to give him the ball in the second half. Also, the crowd seems to be unusually out of it tonight.

  • gpsimms

    one thing that’s made it hard to get the ball to peedi is that when dmo is in the game, the guy covering him is sagging so far off it is hard to get entry passes.

    God, i hope one offseason is enough to turn him into a respectable 3pt shooter. it would make this team a lot better.

  • KDavis

    If I wasn’t baptized in Holy Water brought directly from Crisler Arena as a child, I’m almost 100% certain I would never watch Big Ten basketball.

    In the last 5 minutes or so a combined 5 points were scored. : /

    And when watching UM’s gunners, I feel like I shout the same thing at my TV that I shout at the 7th graders I coach: “Follow your m*th*rbeeping shot!”

  • Giddings

    Is that Trey wearing the Cincinnati Reds hat?

  • Tweeter

    well Kdavis you can always turn on UK-Vandy they are engaged in a great shootout . . .

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    Trey Zeigler is in the house for the second time in the last month.

    Mediocre first half at best. Let penn state off the hook.

  • KDavis

    Can’t, Tweeter. I just can’t. I’ve tried in previous years, but I’m so dorky that I sit here with a notebook and keep my own boxscores of every UM game.

  • gpsimms

    i love that darius can create some looks at the end of the shot clock. again, he’ll be really good when he can create looks for himself as well as just looking to set up others.

  • Tweeter

    it was just a joke – that game is like 27-25 at the half

  • Tweeter

    hmmm, defensive lapses and too much dribble penetration continues.

    Did Greg kelser really just say that D Mo can shoot the basketball?

  • AG2

    Disgraceful defense. Just disgraceful.

  • maxwell’s demon

    What the hell is wrong with this team?

  • Tweeter

    penn st is out hustling us.

  • Tweeter

    this is the point in the game where I wish we had a guy who would just pull everyone to together and say, “man the F up!”

  • Tweeter

    sorry for the st stutter.

  • gpsimms

    1.21 p/p for #9 most efficient (adjusted) team in the big ten

  • AG2

    At this rate, PSU will score 50 in the 2nd half.

  • Giddings

    PSU looks sharp and they’ve clearly taken a lot of confidence from their win at NW. That said our D needs to be better.

  • michigan4204

    In the first half we forced three’s up with multiple guys in our face and in the second half I think we have passed up 4 wide open looks so far.

  • maxwell’s demon

    Stu can dunk?

  • Tweeter

    omg! LLP just grab the damn ball!

  • AG2

    You tell me which team looks like the 1-2 team right now?

  • Tweeter

    umm, us?

  • maxwell’s demon

    Ok this is just unacceptable. I have been one of the most consistent supporters of Beilein but this is just inexcusable.

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    Michigan can’t make anything. Lid on the basket.

  • michigan4204

    As ugly as this season has been, this is the first time I have actually turned the game. I just broke my second remote control of the season.

  • Drew

    This loss will be one for the ages

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    Rough rough game for Laval… Can’t buy one.

  • Tweeter

    lots of time left, chill out you flakes

  • gpsimms

    UNACCEPTABLE! INEXCUSABLE! ET CETERA!

  • Tweeter

    LLP looks lost on both defense and offense. Not his best effort. Perhaps its time we think of only playing him in road games. Could he get 8 years of eligibility if we do that?

  • eddie

    If LLP can’t hit wide open threes he should never be on the court. I’d rather see DMo’s knuckle balls.

  • gpsimms

    (sorry maxwell, i make fun of anyone when i see those words)

  • Tweeter

    post passing is leaving something to be desired. Guys need to see where the backside defender is before they pass it.

  • Tweeter

    MANNY BEING MANNY

  • Joel

    Laval, stop shooting 3′s!! Wow as great as those road wins were, that’s how bad this loss would be. C’mon guys, pull it together at the end…

    Also lol @ gpsimms earlier -

    Now I’m down to just my socks, and when I’m down to just my socks…you know what time it is.
    When I’m down to just my socks it’s time for business that’s why they call ‘em business socks OOoo!

    HERE WE GO MANNY!! Ok NOW it’s business time!

  • Tweeter

    nice joel, nice

  • KDavis

    Stu misses a 3, backpedals to halfcourt before it even hits the rim, Battle grabs the long rebound, goes the distance, no one stops the ball, Battle scores.

    Dear Stu, I know you just got the 3rd dunk of your career, but nothing you’ve done should give you the confidence to not follow your shot. If you insist to pretend you’re Ray Allen, then at least STOP THE F*CKING BALL!!!!

  • Drew

    omg how do you miss that stu… jesus

  • Tweeter

    Stu cant follow his shot there. As a guard, specifically a point guard, you have to be the one to rotate back on almost every possession. If he crashes and doesnt get the rebound its a break away.

  • Tweeter

    last about the three from the top regarding Kdavis’ comment, not the wide open miss from the corner.

    Btw, great look by Morris on that.

  • maxwell’s demon

    If we lose this game it will be the worst loss in the Beilein era and my faith in him will have dropped a little. You can argue it’s not his fault we can’t buy a bucket but at some level this truly is just unacceptable.

  • Joel

    WOOOOOO!!!

  • gpsimms

    yup, manny has his business socks on

  • AG2

    I’m really dismayed that the only way we can stop PSU from scoring is to prevent them from taking a shot.

  • AG2

    Maxwell, how can you say that when we lost to CMU and Harvard in Beilein’s first season?

  • michigan4204

    Tweeter the only problem with your comment is that Stu was not playing pg at that time, not to mention we already had 3 people back on d. As I type this he runs away from a rebound on Manny’s missed 3

  • maxwell’s demon

    Because first season you could at least say it was a transition year and we didn’t have two B10 first team caliber players.

  • Joel

    Stu what the @$!#%$ ARE YOU DOING??!!! GO FOR THE BALL!! Goodness.

  • Joel

    Yeah Harvard was a worse loss in ’07-’08.

  • KDavis

    I understand that, Tweeter, but he does it everytime. And if he does drop back, what’s his job then? To stop the ball, which he also doesn’t do.

  • Tweeter

    well he tried to stop the ball, but Battle made a good move. You have to have someone rotating back and almost all of the time it is going to be Douglass or Morris or both. Its easy to fault it when the ball goes where they were, but you cant give up layups left and right becaus you over crash.

  • JB

    one of the worst performances i’ve ever seen on the basketball court.

  • Joel

    Did anyone else see Stu just give up on that offensive possession a couple possessions back? He was in perfect position to get the rebound and he just back-peddles away. THEN when the ball comes to him, he doesn’t even bother to go for it. We deserve to lose with play like that, and Stu doesn’t deserve to be out there.

  • Tweeter

    gotta make the first and miss the second on purpose.

  • AG2

    Two blown 9 pt leads. Giving up the dagger after letting PSU drain 70 seconds off the game clock. Shot selection, defense, effort. Illinois is going to score 100 on us.

  • Tweeter

    oh god, here we go. time for everyone to jump off a cliff. Yes it was a bad loss and the team played poorly, but lets not lose our cool here.

  • Joel

    That was pathetic.

  • Beilein’s Bricks

    These guys are so frustrating to watch. I’ve reached the point of acceptance that they are at best a mediocre team, so hopefully they finish the season at .500 which I think would be the appropriate level for them. The thing about this team is that they’re not even fun to watch (yet I’m a masochist so I continue to do so).

  • Mith

    Bad loss for sure, but that’s just how its gone this year. I’m still hoping to see some improvement over the last 4 games and hope like heck for a miraculous BTT run.

  • gpsimms

    business hours are over, baby

  • AG2

    Its frustrating, man. Its like watching the Lions on defense. Maybe Trey thinks he can save this team.

  • kent

    Beilein needs to go chucking up threes is not bball brandon needs to cut ties worse than amaker at least they had big men

  • Jake

    Of course when Trey is in the house we lose to the worst team in the Big Ten

  • Tweeter

    kent you lose all credibility when you say things like that. But I am sure you are not a UM fan anyway so you had no credibility to begin with.

  • gpsimms

    perspective: last year’s heroic team allowed more points than it scored on the way to a 9-9 mark.

    this year’s “pathetic/unaceptable” team is en route for 8-10ish, with positive efficiency margin.

    not to toot my own horn, as it were, but all preseason i was predicting this team finishes with a similarish conference record, and does not replicate last year’s non conference success and everyone freaks out about it.

  • KDavis

    You’re starting to pull me over, Tweeter. I agree, we can’t be given up a ton of layups because we crash the boards. We give up more than enough layups in half-court sets.

    Disappointing for sure. I’m kind of over the “omg I’m so pissed, they never should have lost that game, we can’t shoot, we can’t play defense” stuff, though. Sadly, I’m not even surprised by today’s performance, home game or not. I’m hoping we can finish at least 2-2.

    If nothing else, KVD will make the state of Michigan proud. Day 2 coverage of the Bassmaster Classic tonight on ESPN2!!!!!!

  • michigan4204

    No, it is not the end of the world, but man that was ugly. I know everyone will disagree, but I just don’t see what Stu brings to the table. I guess you can say he is a good passer to the post, but if his shoot isn’t falling, he doesn’t offer the intangibles that Novak does. I am praying that Tim Jr. comes in and gets the majority of the time at the 2. Also, did any one else hear him naming all the starters in the pre game today. Someone should tell him he is from Carmel, Indiana. For those of you not familiar with Carmel, it is the Hampton’s of Indiana.

  • KevinTh

    Just pathetic. Chucking 3′s and not going down to Sims is all coaching or lack thereof. Did anyone see Beilein’s pre-game talk? It was as inspiring as a nap on Sunday. He can’t even motivate. Get me someone younger with passion that doesn’t just let his players have green lights when they shoot under 30%. Asking WVU if they’re happy.

  • Tweeter

    This is what I will say about Stu: He is our second best on the ball defender behind Morris now. And its not even close for anyone else. He is our third best shot creator right now behind Harris and Sims. Morris is getting there, but right now Stu does a better job at getting in lanes (he just sucks at finishing, however he made a nice and 1 today). He is our second best ballhandler and passer. He is one of our best shooters, which isnt saying much.

    He needs to be on the floor, and sure he isnt blowing anyone away with his play, but we got no one else to put in. I dont see Hardaway displacing him in the lineup. Perhaps if Ziegler came in and Manny stayed, then Douglass would move to the bench, but otherwise expect him to be starting again next year.

  • Tweeter

    Kevin did you even watch the game? Beilein obviously tore into them at hafltime and told them to force it to Sims. It got to the point where shooters were passing up wide open looks and throwing into triple teams to get him the ball.

    This team is very limited offensively, and when shots are not falling they become very easy to defend because everyone can just sag in on Sims as PSU did today.

  • gpsimms

    also, as a sidenote, while i felt really bad for peedi in the first half on the conference schedule, this game made me feel real bad for manny.

    he played tough today.

    manny: 7/14, 4/10 3pt
    rest of team: 12/29, 2/18 3pt (that’s TWO for EIGHTEEN)
    remove sims from rest of team, and we get: 8/2, 2/18

  • KevinTh

    Ziegler isn’t coming…why would he? So he can compete for making the NIT? Beilein only lands projects.

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    About half of Trey’s school list is destined for the NIT this year… Just sayin’.

  • Tweeter

    just about to say that Dylan, as usual you are on top of things. I guess I also forgot about that magical run we had to the NIT last year . . .

  • michigan4204

    Tweeter, I agree Stu will most likely start at the begining of the year, but I expect by Big Ten season, he will be getting pt simialar to what LLP gets now. Morris will have locked down the 1, a combination of Vogrich, TJ, LLP, and Stu will play the 2. I’m guessing you have never seen Tim play. He is far more athletic than Stu, has just as good of a handle, and is also 6’5″. It does Stu no good to drive because he doesn’t know how to finish. I would say they are even as far as defense, but I will give Stu the advantage here because he will be a junior. The only way Stu plays 20+ minutes is if Manny leaves, which is not going to happen. The starting 5 next year (by Big Ten play) will be: D-Mo at pg, TJ at sg, Manny at sf, Evan or Novak at pf, and Morgan at c. Stu will be the second or third option off the bench. I respect your opinion but Stu is just not as good of a player as you seem to think he is.

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    I don’t know if this has already been brought up but… Penn State scored 4 points in the final 9:57 of the second half. Unbelievable.

    Well, there’s always curling.

  • maxwell’s demon

    There’s no reason this team should be worse than last year’s. There is no reason this team should lose to psu at home. I’m not remotely freaking out but this obviously didn’t help our chances with trey and if I feel a little less confident in jb’s abilities I don’t see how that is unreaonable in the slightest.

  • Beilein’s Bricks

    Based on what’s on premium, no one has any idea where Zeigler is going. He keeps things very close to the vest. He likes Michigan, but if I were to bet on it, my guess is that we finish second (as usual). However, with seventeen year olds, one can never know what they’re going to do.

    As to the season, if we finish over .500, based on current circumstances and my much lowered expectations, I’ll be satisfied. Still a very disappointing season.

  • Tweeter

    Will see michigan4204, but I would be willing to put some money on that. I have not seen HArdaway play a full game, only highlight videos. To me, and again just from limited video so obviously this could be off, but he looks like a shooter with some slashing ability.

    I dont think he has a better handle than Douglass and I would be shocked if he is a better defender on the ball right now. Perhaps he will be once he gets some college pt, but Douglass is a solid on ball defender.

    It would shock me if he came in and was starting off the bat, and it would surprise me if he overtook Stu at any point during the season. Again, I could be way off because I have not seen the guy play in person, but from the reviews I have read about him from people who have, he does not sound like a player that is ready to come in and play major minutes from day one. To me that means, its going to take him some time and I dont think it happens in his freshman year.

  • Tweeter

    wow great finish in the Vandy Uk game. Similar to the end of our game against MSU, long pass to Ogilvy who gets off a floater to tie it and it just rims off.

    Maxwell, one reason: Lee and Merritt. This team really misses a leader.

  • JB

    the reality is we’re just not a good team. now, i think it’s more impressive that we made the tourney last year than we missed it this year. hopefully, trey is thinking about how much he could help our program. at this point, i’m just hoping for trey and horford.

  • michigan hoops 4eva

    Season on the line, Zeigler in the house…and we blow it. A rough combination of factors led to one of the most painful losses of the season (up there with Alabama, Northwestern, MSU, Wisconsin, and Boston College).

    1) 3 point shooting. Stu Douglass: 1-6, Laval Lucas-Perry: 0-5, Zack Novak: 1-6. Total team 3 point shooting: 6-28. Unreal. Just unbelievable. These are supposed to be 3 point shooters for our team. Not only that, but these were open, uncontested 3′s. Bottom line: they failed just as they have failed all season.

    2) Reffing: one-sided foul calls, pour out of bounds calls. Big-ten officiating encourages cheap fouls, and maybe Michigan just needs to be a dirtier team. At the end of the game, the refs wouldn’t let Darius Morris enter the game, earning a tirade from Beilein that included profanities. If John Beilein is swearing, you know it’s bad.

    3) Intangibles: Stu Douglass not being alert on that rebound that lazily rolled to almost half court, lazy defense at the end of the first half, and dumb fouls. Also, luck. Deshawn Sims’ shots seemed to always go in and out. A lot of tough luck.

    4) Deshawn Sims: We didn’t utilize him enough, and maybe their defense was able to clog the lanes because of the lack of a 3-point threat. But still, I would’ve liked to abuse the Sims-Andrew Jones matchup a little more.

    Overall, this was a typical Michigan loss. A “3 point shooting team” that can’t shoot 3′s will lose. Harris worked hard tonight, but we shot terribly and couldn’t get the ball to Sims. Penn State put up a decent effort, and Michigan certainly helped out with lackluster play. Just hope Zeigler doesn’t hold this against Michigan.

  • Dirtgrain

    “There’s no reason this team should be worse than last year’s.”

    Shooting–that’s a reason. But why so many bad shooting games? I can’t figure it out. To me, it’s mostly an issue with individuals. They get open shots; they brick them. Ugh.

  • Giddings

    Certainly tough to watch them shoot lights out from 3-point range at Minnesota and Iowa, get our hopes up that they finally found their strokes, then see them throw up brick after brick tonight. And when we woke up and started playing defense (holding PSU to 4 points in the last 10 minutes) the missed shots just hurt that much more.

    The Beilein haters will be out in full force until Tuesday night (when we hopefully silence them, again). I’m just disappointed that this may have burst our NIT bubble – assuming we lose at OSU and MSU, we now need to beat Illinois and Minnesota and probably win 2 games at the BTT just to make the NIT…

  • michigan4204

    Well Tweeter, I seriously hope you’re wrong. It is definitely going to be another long year if Stu is still our best option at sg. I am not one of these Beilein haters, and I still believe we have the right man for the job, but Stu is a mid major talent at best. I have had the chance to see Hardaway play live, though it was an AAU tournament, but the kid is FAR more talented than any other option we have at sg. If you read my post again, I said Stu is a better defender and will most likely start at the beginning of the season, but if he is our starting 2 guard the whole season, that does not bode well for JB or Michigan.

  • Tweeter

    I thought you said they were even on D, but you gave Stu the advantage because of experience. Dont get me wrong, I dont think Stu is more talented than Hardaway or has as high a ceiling, but I do think he may be the best option over the course of next season. And like I said, I have never seen the guy play live, so its hard to say for certain. Im just not as down on Stu as you and some others are. I think he is better than just a mid major talent.

  • maxwell’s demon

    I certainly agree that the single biggest thing this team lacks is leadership. Forget about Michigan and Beilein for a second and let me just ask a general question: do coaches seriously have no impact on team leadership and mental toughness? I’m not even sure what my answer would be, but if it truly is out of their hands then that’s got to be one of the most frustrating professions around.

  • Tweeter

    Tough question maxwell. I think the answer is no. Coaches can impact leadership and toughness, but sometimes players lack the ability to be impacted by that. Im not saying that is the case here. I have no idea what Beilein is like in practice or when he has sit downs with players.

    To me though, basketball is a game that is about the players. Coaches certainly help, but players are what makes the team. If you dont have players, you dont win regardless of who the coach is. If you dont have a coach but you have players, you can still win.

    One of the problems as I see it and this is not to condemn Manny or Deshawn, but they just dont have that vocal leadership quality. THere is nothing wrong with that, plenty of great people and players were not good vocal leaders. But it makes it tough when your two best players and two or your most seasoned players, are not your leaders. Leading by example only gets you so far, and really neither of those two are great all out hustle guys either.

  • Tweeter

    ps. my girlfriend just got mad at me cause I said I did not want to go out, I put on sweat pants, filled a big gulp glass up with ice, poured straight John Daniels to the top and then made a fort out of our sofa cushions. This is gonna be a great night.

  • maxwell’s demon

    Candy is dandy but liquor is quicker.

  • Jay

    Coaches have a tremendous amount of impact on leadership and mental toughness. You can’t tell me that the Coach K’s, Boheim, Calhoun type coaches aura flows on to the court and into their players. There is a disconnect with this team for some reason. Some say merritt & lee, and I thought the same thing. But as the season wears on after all these games, can we still blame it on those two? You dont have to be vocal to be a leader, it comes from the coach in my opinion (but it does help to have a lead by example guy). Take the Spurs for instance, Tim Duncan & crew are’nt over the top hoorah guys. But Coach Pop, demands a certain level of excellence and it goes from 1-12. I can’t call it anymore, and have no clue why this team is so bad. Not baggin on coach B, but if ____(insert a coach name) was coaching the same team; do you think our record would be better?

    Also can someone explain how WVU is top 10-15 team, with top talent after B leaves? I almost got shot the last time I mentioned Huggins taking WVU to the next level, but whatever!

    Just remember “men lie, women lie, numbers dont lie!!”

  • MR

    Pathetic basketball, chucking threes is not good basketball. Coach has no answer if threes are not falling. I expect a good year for a Beilien coached Michigan team will be middle of the pack in the big ten.

  • Deacon Blues

    I’m sorry, but I’ve had just about enough of this Lee/Merritt excuse/crutch.

    I’ll buy that their absence maybe has had some effect. What’s really annoying, though, is the implicit suggestion that Harris/Sims are to blame for U-M’s disappointing season, since “they’re not vocal” and they’ve failed to fill that leadership role.

    Why is U-M 13-13? Well, statistically, U-M is essentially the same team it was last season: 67th in efficiency then, 63rd before tonight. But offensively, we’re way down. It’s not because of turnovers, rebounds or FTAs; those are all in the same ballpark as last season. The regression is almost entirely due to our 3FG% falling off of a cliff. And it’s fallen off because Harris/Sims aren’t properly leading and encouraging their teammates?

    Let me get this straight. Harris/Sims’s responsibilities are as follows: Score 20 points. Each. Every game. Against Big Ten competition. Do so efficiently. And find the right word or glare to solve LLP’s Crisler jinx and fix Douglass and Novak’s broken jumpers.

    Does anyone else have any responsibilities?

  • Deacon Blues

    Same team statistically on defense, I meant to say. My apologies for the omitted word and the ornery mood.

  • Tweeter

    Cant get into a long discussion on this tonight and this will probably be my last post since I am already getting reamed for checking this site so much, but anyways on your points Jay.

    I agreed that coaches can impact leadership and toughness and there are plenty of examples where coaches do. There is great example up at State. However, I dont think that their impact is as big as the players themselves. Some kids no matter who their coach is, never develope toughness and never become leaders. Some kids naturally are leaders and naturally are tough regardless of the enviroment their coach creates. Some kids develope those things with a guidance from a coach.

    There have been several teams at MSU over the last decade that State fans hated because they had no toughness and no leaders. Was that Izzo’s fault? Same thing at Duke. Maybe same thing at Uconn or UNC this year. Those teams have tons of talent, great coaches, but have struggled mightily. UNC in particular looks as soft and as lost as any team I have seen this year. Im sure their fans are bagging on their players to step up.

    I dont think leadership is UM’s only problem this year, but I do think it is one of the biggest. Honestly I dont think there is another coach out there that would change that.

    As I said, to me, and I think to most coaches that you would ask, basketball is about the players. If you dont have players, you dont win. One of the coaches that has had the most success lately said as much when he talked about recruiting at UK – John Calipari.

    This is not to belittle a coaches job in basketball, b/c obviously they are important, but coaching basketball is about getting the most out of your players. However, sometimes a group of players dont mesh well together, dont respond to what’s being taught, dont have enough self-motivation to achieve the results, etc. Beilein would probably tell you he has done a poor job this year because the team has not achieved to their maximum level, but at a certain point some teams just dont have it. I am rambling a bit I know.

    I also dont think you can compare pro to college. Pro players are there because they are either insanely talented or incredibly self-motivated. Neither of which have a great deal to do with coaching. Sure coaches have giving them guidance on how to work on their games, but its up to the players to actually put that into motion. You can show a kid how to shoot with perfect form, but you cant make him shoot 500 shots a day practicing that form.

    Its the same thing in life. I have friends who were much smarter than I was, grew up in good homes, went to better schools where they presumably were taught by great instructers, but they didnt have the self-motivation necessary to do it on their own once they had to.

    So I think when we look at this UM team this year and compare it to last, I believe one of the major differences is lack of leadership/toughness and I dont think all that blame goes on Beilein.

    If there is one thing that I think is most black and white to get on a college coach about it is recruiting and bringing in talent. I have no problem with people questioning Beilein in that regard. I would just say that its too early to make judgments on his ability in that regard. Afterall Huggins best player at WVU is a Beilein recruit and their second best player is only there b/c Sampson got canned at IU. Thats not to say that Huggins is not a great recruiter b/c he is (whether he does it legally or not idk). I would also point out though that next years class at WVU is looking worse right now than what UM is bringing in next year.

    Sorry for the incredibly long post, but I am out for the night. Go Blue!

  • noah tahl

    As much as I can appreciate Novak’s hustle, this team all year has shown that you can’t play a 6’4″ inch player with an 18 inch vertical and 25% 3 point shooting at the power forward spot or most any other position. Last year at least he shot over 30 % but this season has been brutal. I can’t take much more of this. Where are the Glen Rice’s???

  • mmccrae

    Fwiw… football just got a commitment who plays on the same Aau team as brundidge… “coach rod told me he wouldn’t mind if I tried to walk on to the basketball team, so I will definitely try to do that”… he is 6′ 4″ with a 38″ vertical… can he post up? :/

  • Kevin in GR

    Man……just when you start to get excited that maybe they can go a a run and win a few games, we get a game like this! This team can play with anyone……and also lose to anyone as we saw today.

    Boy, we are going to have quite the group of walkon’s! Shawn Conway sounds pretty decent. http://seaholmhighlander.com/sports/basketball/690-richaud-pack-cousin-shawn-conway-are-seaholms-dynamic-duo

    Anyone needing 4 tickets for Tuesday v Illinois, I have them available! Section 31, row 34 (center court). Shoot me an email if you’re interested! (wolverine49525@yahoo.com)

  • Michigan04

    Nice line maxwell: candy is dandy….

    Also I appreciate the passion from guys like Tweeter, AG, GPsimms, etc ( no disrespect if I didn’t type your name.. we’re guys so I’m sure no one cares)

    Anyway, I just hope that Morgan looks good next year and that McLimans is serviceable while hoping for at least Horford.

    If the matrix plays like a top 50 kid out of the gate it’ll help too.

  • Michigan04

    Shout out to Jay as well for the Yo Gotti reference.

    As an aside, what do people think about the Huggins success at a moribound (sp? it’s late) recruiting bed like West Virginia?

    I’m for Belein, just hoping he gets more Manny-esque slashers in the future to go along with hopeful 3 point shooter upgrades (looking at you Hardaway, Vogrich (?)

  • Joel

    Zeigler, after watching the game though, “I have to come here to help this team get better! I can’t just sit here and watch them play like this!” Definitely what happened. So actually, the loss will help our recruiting :)

    Lol @ Tweeter sounds like you had a good night :P I’m goin to the Illinois game so hopefully that’ll go better. I feel like it will – need to see the effort/performance from the last 2 road games!

  • Brian W

    To me, the Lee and Merritt (and Grady) crutch comes down to this. Last year, UM had a bench that contributed. This year, the bench has been non-existent for the most part. Lee, Merritt and Grady (3 guards) have pretty much been replaced by Morris (one guard). Grady’s leaving the team may have been the biggest loss since Beilein couldn’t add another highly-rated guard for this season at that point. He got Eso and Josh to walk on, but they weren’t (and didn’t) contribute the type of minutes that Grady would have. As a result Stu is playing a lot more minutes, which contributes to fatigue and flat shots at the end yesterday’s game. Novak’s playing more minutes too.

    If I remember right, when the bench would come in to replace the starters last year, you’d have Grady, Jevon, Gibson, Merritt, and Wright come into the game. For most of this season, the substitutions off the bench have been Gibson, LLP (had been Morris until he got promoted) and Wright.

    Aside from Morris, there haven’t been contributions from the freshmen to add bench depth. Vogrich played some early in the season, but was such a liability defensively that he hasn’t played much since the start of the Big Ten part of the schedule. If Morgan hadn’t hurt his knee, he would have played this year most likely. Cronin’s non-recovery to his hip surgery really hurt the bench depth too.

    Next year, I hope we’ll see Zeigler (please pick UM), Hardaway and Smotrycz making nice contributions. The redshirt freshmen (Morgan and McLimans) are going to need to step up too.

    Having some reliable backups makes a big difference. UM’s lead in the game yesterday evaporated when the subs came in the game; The defense (and offense) got noticibly worse when Gibson and LLP came in, and those were the only two subs to see the floor (Vogrich came in for only a few seconds). Ant Wright didn’t come in to give Novak a breather either.

  • gpsimms

    haha, love the fort building tweeter. i bult myself a metaphorical fort by watching flight of the conchords all night with my wife.

    DEACON THANK YOU…i feel i have been trying to get that point across all year and you put it better. the leadership thing is so totally overblown. the huge gap in 3 pt% is very significant, and right, so it’s manny and peedi’s fault for not “pumping laval up/glaring at novak” right to inspire them to not blow at shooting?

    well put.

    also, after this loss, our efficiency margin is dead even thrugh conferece play, which is still better than last year.

    i think kenpom’s luck statistic is the perfect quantifier of what everyone is trying to grasp this year: “what’s wrong with this team?”

    is it leadership? kenpom says no…even with the shooting being down, overall this team’s body of work is just about even with what it was last year. and yet, it is possible for two teams with very similar bodies of work to have different outcomes because of different opponents, bounces here, calls there, etc.

    i just get really aggravated with people placing any blame on manny or deshawn for what is going on here. and when you say “leadership,” that’ exactly who you are blaming.

    peedi scored 9 points in 4 possessions to win the iowa game! (and the possession he didn’t score was because manny turned it over before peedi could get the ball).

    also, those who say manny doesn’t play within the offense, or that the offense runs smoother whe he’s not in are totally full of crap. manny is a pass first guy. his assist rate is down this year. why? because no one else can shoot.

    i actually really respect the way manny is still sharig the ball despite the way the other guys are shooting. and as for deshawn not getting enogh touches last night, that is the same thing. guys were passing up open looks to throw to peedi in triple coverage. last night, the rest of the team was shooting so poorly penn state actually ignored 2-3 of the 5 guys on the court and just hawked peedi all night.

    /rant

  • http://umhoops.com Mattski

    good rant, gp. And a little healthy reminder: we’re (mostly) guys sitting on couches who can’t do what these kids do; savaging them is a little dicey from that standpoint. Some sense of proportion and self-awareness B4 you unload your id on the kids, please.

    If anything tonight was one more reminder that Manny and Peedi can’t do it alone.

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    I don’t think leadership should be pinned on Manny and Sims in its entirety. Are they part of the equation? Yeah. But leadership isn’t about “pumping up your teammates” leadership isn’t about a different statistical body of work.

    Leadership comes into play down the stretch. When the going get’s tough. When the opposition makes a big run. Someone to keep the team composed.

    I think the biggest problem is that there has to be some of this from the backcourt. Michigan has 3 guards. 2 sophomores and 1 freshman. Last year CJ Lee and/or Dave Merritt were almost always on the floor for large chunks of the game. They were both 5th year seniors.

  • maxwell’s demon

    gpsimms – Statistics aren’t a root cause. It’s obvious to everyone on here that the reason we are losing more games this year is our 3 pt%.

    Now why is that? Because of different personnel? No. Are you going to tell me that LLP and Stu repeatedly missing wide open looks and actually passing on some doesn’t reflect the mental aspect of the game? You’re going to tell me a team that loses every close game (aside from Iowa) doesn’t have leadership issues?

    Your statistics argument seems to prove exactly what you are trying to disprove. That we are a similar team but has terrible shooting stretches and loses a lot of the close games that we won last year. Good teams win close games and good teams usually have leadership.

    And I absolutely place some of the lack of leadership on Manny’s shoulders. He is the opposite of Kalin Lucas down the stretch. And as far as Sims go, I actually do think he’s a leader but he can only do so much as a 5 man. Down the stretch you need leadership/poise at the ball handling positions and we don’t have it.

  • gpsimms

    it sounds like the definitionof leadership here is good player. I still maintain that merritt had very little to dowith the success last year, and CJ had almost everything to do with it. When things got tough, Manny made a 3, a steal and a +1.

    He did this because he is a good player.

    Against Iowa peedi went nuts in the last 90 seconds or so, at a point when I was absolutely sure we could not come back.

    He also did this because he is good at basketball.

    I think most people play the same near the end of a close game as they did throughout the game. Manny and Deshawn keep making plays, the rest keep not making plays. It’s funny, but I think we miss CJ’s SKILL at guard. he made some good plays last year. That’s what we miss.

    so if by leadership, you mean skill, then we are exactly on the same page.

  • gpsimms

    meh, i guess i’m being a little hard on merritt. he did have the ability to hit the oen three (which would be a very welcome, again, skill to add to thisteam)..he just really frustrated me in other aspects of the game…i think that the limited +/- you did last year bears me out on that, too…(again, not that he didn’t try real hard)

  • DaveR

    That was ugly. Typical though. Killed in the paint again. As somebody else pointed out, Novak ain’t no power forward. And they can’t shoot the three. This team will be lucky to make the NIT. Don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel. Looking like Zeigler will end up elsewhere – Beilein can’t land a top 50 recruit to save his life so far. So another subpar recruiting year and we lose both our top players, Amaker holdovers Sims and Harris – they’ve been carrying this team and keeping it respectable. Next year is looking really ugly – McLimans is probably a stiff or he’d be playing. Morgan has a little more promise but he was an unrrated prospect and likely could have played this year after recovering from his injury – but didn’t. Horford is also unrrated for good reason and a project. Smotrycz is fairly highly rated but will be a freshman, is not a powerful post player and may have little help inside. Overall, Michigan’s talent is near the bottom of the Big Ten with Beilein’s recruits – without Harris and Sims. Unless the redshirts and new recruits are much better than expected and Beilein finishes strong recruiting, this team won’t win ten games next year and will finish at the bottom of the Big Ten. Longer term, it looks like more of the same – unless Beilein can somehow become a better recruiter – I highly doubt Beilein lands Williams or another similar caliber player given his record so far. We shouldn’t be struggling to land Zeigler. Michigan should be getting a top 50 recruit on average every year and a couple top 100 recruits every year – at the bare minimum. As Vitale said, Michigan should be easily pulling in these top recruits and should be a top 20 program. Now. In the longer term, Michigan should do even better and should be at MSU or OSU’s level. Michigan shouldn’t have extended Beilein’s contract untill he had proven able to do so.

  • maxwell’s demon

    No. Being clutch isn’t some made up phenomenon. It exists in every sport. When the game is on the line a lot of talented players don’t make the same decisions that they do during the rest of the game. But some players do, and some even seem to consistently make big plays down the stretch. I don’t see how anyone can dispute that having an experienced point guard can help keep the team stay focused and help run the offense properly down the stretch of the game. Whether leadership is an innate quality or more related to experience doesn’t matter just as long as there is someone to keep the team on track at the end of the game.

    Maybe part of the problem is that we do default to Manny at the end of the game and we immediately start running our offense differently than we did for the rest of the game.

  • Brian W

    I don’t think Vitale’s idea that UM should easily be pulling in a top 50 player every year is a reality at the moment (a goal but not a reality right now). Vitale seems to forget that there have been years between UM’s NCAA runs and what current high school players have seen from UM during their lifetime. UM’s Fab Five and NCAA tourney teams weren’t seen by the current high school players. It’ll hopefully get easier to pull in the talent when the practice facility is in place and Crisler gets freshened up a little.

  • gpsimms

    brian is right about recruiting expectations. dick vitale is right that michigan’s ceiling is a real top tier program, but he’s wrong that they should be able to do it every year, starting this year…why would a kid with options choose michigan over other top flight basketball teams?

    also, interestng point made that beilein’s incoming class raks higher than wv’s right now…

    finally: i was really surpised to see osu get beat by purdue this week. i thouht for sure with turner back and playing well they were the best team in the big ten. they do look pretty good today, though, and i’m thinking we have almost no shot at beating them.

  • DaveR

    It’s not unrealistic to expect Beilein to pull in better recruits, ideally at least a top 50 player every year. This will be his THIRD recruiting class. He should have been pulling in better talent the last couple years. Now, it will take several decent recruiting years and several Zeigler caliber players to get Michigan’s talent to be even in the same ballpark as MSU’s – still not nearly as good but in the freakin’ ballpark. I’m not suggesting that Michigan can currently recruit at the level of MSU or OSU or any of the other top 15 or so programs. I’m suggesting that they recruit at least as well as a second tier program so that they can at least make the NCAA’s every year. Anything less is just not good enough for Michigan. So far, Beilein has been recruiting well below this second tier. EVEN WITH ZEIGLER, Michigan’s recruiting over the past 3 years would put them in them in the bottom half of the Big Ten and the bottom third of the ACC. Not nearly good enough. Before the fallout from the Fab Five years, heavy handed NCAA sanctions, and absolutely terrible coaching hires (seriously Ellerbe shouldn’t even be coaching junior high school ball), Michigan was an elite top 20 program and that’s where it belongs.

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    With Morris (dropped a bit during injured sr. year), Smotrycz (52 on rivals), and then Brundidge (64 on scout). You could argue that Beilein has came pretty damn close to pulling “a top 50 player every year”. They might be “fringe”-ish but I think after the top 35 or so, 35-60 is pretty much an equal range.

    If he lands Zeigler that’s another bonafide top 30-type kid that is the sort of difference maker you need (Sims, Harris).

  • ToBlav

    Lots of good ideas about what has caused this disappointing season, recruiting, etc.. It isn’t productive or wise to blame anyone. Our upperclass starters have too much of the load and the freshmen and sophmores have too little experience to be consistant. The bottom line is we are the youngest team in the Big Ten and the Fab Five is a once in a gereration deal, so we are in the middle of the league which is going to happen to a pretty good youngest team in the league, and in fact that is better than the youngest team in the usually does, I’d guess.

  • AG2

    Frankly, its totally unreasonable to ask ANY coach or ANY program to make the tournament every year. Would Wisconsin or MSU have made the tournament every year if Bob Knight had left Indiana? I think not. It takes time to build a dynasty, especially when you’ve had to start over as many times as we have.

    Beilein’s recruiting isn’t that bad. We’ve had some issues with size that’s affecting our defense, and most of our shooters are in sophomore slumps, and we’re breaking in a freshman point guard after losing two 5th year seniors and a sophomore. Whatever DaveR wants to say about Beilein’s recruiting vs. Amaker, there’s no question at all that Beilein is a better coach. None. And on top of that, Beilein’s recruiting is actually IMPROVING while Amaker’s was falling off because fewer and fewer people were taking him seriously. Sometimes you just have a down year, ask Roy Williams. 3-9 conference record with 7 McDonalds All Americans.

  • DaveR

    I agree that Beilein has been able to pull in some talent but it’s been sparse. Counting Brundidge who won’t see campus for another year and a half (if he stays committed) is overly optimistic at this point. It’s a good start for the next recruiting year but only a start. Unfortunately the recruiting rankings, especially at the top, are reasonably accurate. The top 20 players are usually significantly better than the next 20 and so on. So there is a major difference between landing say a top for 40 or 50 kid or somebody ranked lower. You can see it now with Michigan. Who are Michigan’s stars, the two players carrying this team? Harris (rivals #34 in his class) and Sims (rivals #31 in his class). Both are Amaker recruits. Beilein has not signed anybody at that level so far. If he gets him, Zeigler would be the first recruit at that level – and the odds are looking a little long at this point. Morris, Smotrycz and Brundidge are good top 100 recruits and maybe one will be better than advertised but none are top 40-50 recruits of the same caliber as a Sims or Harris. They are also spread over 4 classes – that’s a bit thin and not enough talent to keep you in the top half of the Big Ten or in the NCAA tournament. Matters are made worse by the lopsided nature of Beilein’s recruiting so far – he seems largely inacapable of recruiting decent post players. Beilein is a great coach and makes more with less but he’s not a miracle worker. I thought he might be. I thought his “small-ball” could work (it doesn’t work very well – PSU destroyed Michigan inside) and that he could coach up lesser talent to make Michigan a top team again. But I was wrong. He needs better talent – not necessarily the best but significantly better. If he gets it, I think Michigan will be at the top again.

  • maxwell’s demon

    How does international recruiting typically work? I know Dylan mentioned something about a tournament in April but is that too late for 2010 kids?

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    Not really any time frame. There isn’t any “too late” really as long as the kid can get enrolled. It’s more or less how it plays into the rest of Michigan’s recruiting. As a backup plan or whatever else.

  • Jay

    Some of the decisions by Coach B on personnel have been questionable to me. LLP yes was a year or two younger then Larry Wright (from St Johns) who wanted to transfer to UM, but had to settle for Oakland. What went into that decision? Did LLP take the spot first, so Wright was left without the possibility? I’ve been a very big Deshonte Riley guy. I’ve always thought his 6’11 low motor was better then any other prospect Beilein was looking for at the 4&5 spot. But who am I, im just a fan! He wasn’t good enough for Beilein, but he was good enough for Boheim? That is what puzzles me. Also everybody who says Huggins is doing this with Beilein kid as his best player, please remember last year was due to Ammakers kids not Coach B’s recruits. Doesnt matter who brought them there, what matters is what that coach can do with them. Joe Alexander wasn’t half the player he was that year Huggins made him cut down on the 3ball, and attack the rim. Plz stop referencing UNC, when you lose starting lineups to the NBA every year; then you have the right to hit a bump one out of 20 years. Just like UM football, opponents better get their licks in now because when this machine starts moving I would suggest you to get out of the way.

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    Would Larry Wright really make a difference over LLP? He’s averaging 10 and 2 at Oakland and shooting 36% from the field.

    I know Syracuse is loaded but Riley isn’t getting off the bench.

  • Giddings

    Odds of us getting Zeigler are “a little long at this point”? He’s been to Michigan at least 3 times in the last 4 months, including twice in the last month. People seem to base our chances with Trey solely on our win/loss record, but in reality there’s so many factors going on with his recruiting that it’s simply impossible to say at this point. What we DO know is that he’s interested enough to make the two-hour drive down to A2 for multiple visits and stay in touch with U-M commits like Evan and Carleton. Plus he has mentioned talking to Darius, a friend of his from his days in LA.

    As for Beilein “seeming incapable of recruiting decent post players”, let’s remember that: 1) the two true post players that he has recruited both suffered injuries so at this point we have no idea how good they could be (Morgan) or could have been (Cronin), and 2) his offense has never been based on banging down low in the post, so it’s simply not a priority of his on the recruiting trail.

    Beilein has been successful EVERYWHERE he’s been using the same formula. Some people argue that it won’t work in the Big Ten because of the physical nature of the conference, but is it really that unique? The Big East would beg to differ. And at the top of the Big Ten standings sits Purdue, which is largely a “finesse” team (Johnson is their only post player and he’s more of a lanky jump shooter than a power post presence).

    We’ve been no worse in-conference than out-of-conference this year. The problem is not that “we’re trying to play small ball in the Big Ten”. The problem is simply that the shots aren’t falling for this team.

    Beilein ball WILL BE SUCCESSFUL if the players can just hit a fair amount of open threes. Once he got the personnel he needed at WVU, they won 24, 22, and 27 games by shooting 36%, 35%, and 38% from 3-pt range. His Michigan teams have shot 31%, 33%, and now barely 30%. It’s clear that Stu, Zack, and LLP aren’t quite “enough” to get to that >35% range. But hopefully with Hardaway, Smotrycz, and a more experienced Vogrich in the fold, we will get there. And when we do, the wins will come.

  • Tweeter

    Jay I think the UNC point is more to the point that sometimes a team just lacks something than you cant just quantify. UNC has great players, regardless of who they lost, and a great coach, yet they have been terrible over the last two months.

    As for Riley, I dont think that guy who have helped this team at all this year as I said the other day. He has only seen playing time in two Big East games this year. I caught the couple minutes he got in their last game and lets just say that Gibson would own him right now. Thats not to say the guy wont develope into something, but he has a long, long ways to go. I also think Horford looks worlds better in his highlight videos than any video I ever saw of Riley.

  • Brogrich #1 Fan

    Put in Vogrich and let the kid play a little, his redshirt is already burned I just don’t understand why he isn’t getting any burn with how some of these other guys are playing. Mix it up a little Beilein, this season is over.

    On another note, it would be nice if our offense wasn’t so slow to develop all the time. You have kids standing in the same spot for 25 seconds of the shot clock on the wing. Look where we start our offense compared to others. We are usually way outside the 3. Our in bound plays suck. Throw it in the backcourt as a safety valve with our shot clock at 15 seconds kills us. It’s amazing how this team has lost fact of the little things. No one sets a good screen besides Novak. No one sets up their screen. No one gets open on the wing. This is why the backdoor cut never works anymore. It’s easy to see why we rely on jacking up so many threes when our offense is so stagnant.

  • Brian W

    On Beilein’s radio show last week, Jeff Meyer was on the show, and he mentioned that Vogrich needs to get stronger… He can flat out shoot it if you leave him open, but his defense needs improvement. Like the Lion’s backup quarterback and the Red Wings backup goalie, where people always want to put them in when things aren’t going as well as they could; it’s easy to just say put a player in. If a player’s not doing it in practice (which fans don’t see) or he’s not making the most of opportunities he gets in games, there’s probably a reason why the coach isn’t giving the player minutes. Beilein’s probably trying to play the players that give the team the best opportunity to win. Vogrich’s redshirt is burned, but I wouldn’t put him in just for the sake of putting him in.

    Deshawn was setting some nice screens yesterday. He set one that Stu used in the first half to drive to the hoop.

    If you have a deep team, you can run and gun and put in fresh legs. If you don’t have depth, it could be better to use some clock, run the offense and set up the play.

    Penn State was clogging the middle a lot yesterday, stepping back and daring LLP and Darius to shoot.

  • http://umhoops.com Wayman Britt

    Not sure about more playing time for Vogrich. Whenever he is in the game he has been too slow. So far in his college career he lacks the foot speed to play defense or to get open.

    You can shoot 100% from the 3 point line if you are not guarded, but it’s a totally different ball game when someone is in your face. So far Vogrich may be a great at playing HORSE, but not as a player in the Big Ten.

  • Brogrich #1 Fan

    Even if Vogrich gets stronger, he’s going to need more playing time experience to build confidence when he plays. Its hard to build any confidence when he was out there spelling Manny Harris for two possessions before being taken out. I’m just saying there is nothing to lose playing him now so he gets out his mistakes now and can learn from them for next year. We are already getting no production off our bench anyway.

  • MR

    Not sure what the definition of succeess will be with Beilien as our coach. I suspect this year will be a typical year for this coaching staff. Beilien did have two very nice runs in the tournament (I suspect a quirky system being diffecult to prepare for in a short time frame as the reason, not as helpful in league play). In the big east Beilien finished 13th, 8th, 7th, 3rd, 7th. Big ten 10th, 7th, and a probable 7th or 8th. Hardly an annual title contender. I think we should be in the conversation for big ten titles, but I dont see this happening under Beilien.

  • fresh

    besides trey what other 3 prospects were at the game yesterday?

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    Isaiah Sykes was there. I’ll have the full post-game up soon. Sorry it’s taken so long.

  • aMaized

    http://www.freep.com/article/20100221/SPORTS06/2210542/1054/Developing-Darius-Morris-helps-U-M-on-defense

    Ziegler comment:
    Still undecided: One of the primary recruits the Michigan basketball team is still chasing for the 2010 class is Mt. Pleasant wing Trey Zeigler, son of Central Michigan coach Ernie Zeigler.

    Though Trey Zeigler would be a candidate to be Manny Harris’ successor at wing, many have speculated that Harris’ NBA draft status — Harris is currently a junior — could influence Zeigler’s decision this spring when it comes to Michigan and other schools who are recruiting him, including MSU, Duke and UCLA.

    Zeigler took questions in an online format Saturday and was asked: “Does the potential of Manny leaving do anything to your decision?” He responded: “nah id rather him stay.”

  • DaveR

    Giddings,

    We may still land Zeigler but it’s getting late in the game and he still lists 12 schools without a clear leader. So yeah, I’d call that “a little long.” We should be able to lock up at least one player of Zeigler’s caliber early in the game.

    As for the lack of good post players, the results speak for themselves. Cronin was a bit of a project from the start and I suspect his health issues were somewhat known. Not a great recruit. Morgan may be good and he did suffer an unfortunate injury but he had recovered by the beginning of the season and still redshirted. Nevertheless, he’s not the top level recruit we should be getting in the post – not even close. McLimans didn’t have any injury but he didn’t even play even though we were super thin in the frontcourt this year – that speaks for itself. Even if he develops into a decent player (a bit of a gamble), again he’s not a good recruit. So Beilein recruited ZERO ranked post players in his first two classes and only one of his recruits appears to be a decent bet to be a significant contributor. Even though we had a great need for post players. As you say, his offense isn’t based on post play and this isn’t apparently a priority. We are seeing the limitations of this philosophy. Michigan routinely is destroyed inside – usually outscored in double digits in the paint and majorly outrebounded. PSU massacred them inside. It’s hard to win let alone be at the top with this handicap.

    Purdue is winning without the best talent in the Big Ten and without the best frontcourt – it’s not impossible. But they’re doing so with better talent, including better frontcourt talent, than Michigan. Purdue has 2 starters who are talented true post players – 6’10″ Jajuan Johnson (Rivals #42) and 6’8″ Robbie Hummel (Rivals #75). They both average more than 30 minutes, 15 points and 7 boards. Johnson averages 2 blocks a game and Hummel averages 1 block a game. They also have 6’8 Bade coming off the bench. Michigan has only one true starting post player – Sims who has slightly better point and rebounding averages than Purdue’s big two but only averages 0.7 blocks per game. Michigan’s only other true post player, Gibson, comes off the bench and averages only 9 minutes, 3.6 points and 0.9 boards. So Purdue’s starting lineup is about twice as dominating in the post offensively and even more so defensively. They also have similar talent to Michigan in the backcourt. Purdue does demonstrate that it may take only a couple talented post players (and great coaching) to compete at the top level.

    As for the threes, part of it is shooting and part of it is the lack of a more effective post game (or even more talented slashers like Zeigler and Harris) which would allow more open looks from the outside.

    Beilein is a great coach and I’m not suggesting a coaching change – now. But if he doesn’t get better recruits or get better results with his current recruits in the next couple years, Michigan should consider a coaching change. I’m still hopeful but not the most optimistic.

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    Zeigler isn’t listing 12 schools and Michigan is very much involved.

    But I find it hilarious that the Free Press is quoting Zeigler’s formspring thing. You can read the whole thing here:
    http://www.formspring.me/treyzeigler32

  • DaveR

    Per Rivals, he’s still considering 12 schools – all with Medium interest. I know this is not likely up to date but wishful thinking aside, Michigan is still among a pack of schools still vying for him without a clear leader – odds that are a little longer than I would prefer.

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    Rivals profile school lists are one of the most inaccurate things around. I wouldn’t recommend even using them as a resource. Trey’s list is probably something like 7 schools. Michigan, UCLA, CMU, MSU, and Duke would probably be the top 5-ish schools on his list.

    But as you said, he hasn’t announced any cuts to his list so we’ll see in a couple months.

  • DaveR

    Dylan – thanks for the update.

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