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Evan Smotrycz’ prep career is coming to a close but the 6-foot-9 forward gave us a quick update before New Hampton’s final home game of his career.

My last home game is Friday. We play Tilton whose is a rival a couple exits south of us. We have had a long solid week of practice, we had a game scheduled for Wednesday but it was cancelled because of a huge snow storm. We have been staying sharp in practice and have really competed. Our legs are fresh and it should be a competitive and fun game for our fans to watch.

We have prided ourselves on not taking it easy in practice. “You are either getting better or getting worse, never staying the same,” our coach tells us. That’s why we feel confident about our position going into the NEPSAC Tournament. The first game is Wednesday. The seedings are not finished so we don’t know who we will play. Winning the tournament would be hard, but not impossible. If we could get that done it would make the rest of the year that much better, knowing we as a team hung up a banner in our gym.

New Hampton lost the game, 82-81, but Smotrycz provided another quick update after the game:

I don’t really know what to say. I guess we just weren’t ready to play the game. We lost by one. It’s disappointing because that’s the last game we get to play at our gym, ever. What I can say is this, the thing that allows you to move past these games mentall, is knowing that you did everything you could to help your team. The tournament starts Wednesday, and I don’t want to look back on the year and say “I wish I played harder”. I know my team feels the same, so we will be ready.

Now that New Hampton’s regular season is over, they shift their focus to the NESPAC Class A tournament. New Hampton received the seven seed, with a 6-8 record in conference play, and will face Winchendon (12-5). It sounds like New Hampton got a bit of a rough draw, as their first round match-up will likely match-up two contenders. The linked article also has a nice breakdown of the other teams in NESPAC Class A which should give you a better idea of the teams that Smotrycz has been facing all year.

New Hampton lost to Winchendon twice in overtime this year, but they won the most recent match-up fairly easily and Smotrycz had 21 points and 8 rebounds. The tournament tips off Wednesday and New Hampton’s game is scheduled for 8PM. The semis are scheduled on Friday with the championship on Sunday.

Rivals’ Jerry Meyer recently answered a question ($) about whether Smotrycz was a comparable player to Florida’s Chandler Parsons. The conclusion was that Smotrycz is similar in build and shooting ability but might not be quite the athlete that Parsons is. Meyer hypothesizes that Smotrycz is ranked correctly but might be one of those players “who overachieves based on his ranking”.

Box score.

College basketball is played in halves but this one breaks up almost perfectly into four quarters. Ohio State won two of the quarters, Michigan won one, and the final segment was played to a draw.

Michigan came out flat from the tip. They looked rattled and gave up easy basket after easy basket. Ohio State jumped out to a 9-0 lead and led 19-10 with 10:31 to play in the first half. Give the first quarter to Ohio State. Then the light came on for the Wolverines and they closed the half on 23-12 run and led by one at the half.

Ohio State took control of the game in the first 10 minutes of the second half. They turned a 1 point deficit into an 11 point lead with 10:27 to play. The final 10 minutes were dead even, Michigan made a number of “mini-runs” but couldn’t seem to get the game closer than 7 points.

So what happened? Mostly Ohio State is just a much more talented team. When you recruit as well as the Buckeyes have over the last few years, you are bound to reap the benefits eventually. Here’s a breakdown of the top 100 players (RSCI) on the floor:

Michigan has two players on the list. Ohio State has five. I’m pretty comfortable saying that Ohio State’s starting five is the best in the conference.
Continue reading ‘Game 28: Michigan at Ohio State Post Game’

Basics Who: Michigan (13-14, 6-9) at Ohio State (22-7, 12-4) Where: Value City Arena, Columbus, Ohio When: 12:00 PM, Saturday, February 27th, 2010 TV: ESPN/ESPN360.com Radio: MGoBlue, WWJ 950 AM/WTKA 1050 AM Line: Stats: Live TFS Pomeroy Profile

The first match-up between these two teams resulted in one of Michigan’s best victories of the season but even the most optimistic of Michigan fans would struggle to give the Wolverines a chance in Columbus this Saturday. Ohio State is 12-3 since their loss to Michigan and they’ve added some guy named Evan Turner back into their lineup.  Ohio State is in the thick of the Big Ten title race while Michigan is limping along, 3-7 in their last 10 games, and trying to play their way into the NIT.

Michigan won the first game thanks to a great performance from Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. The duo played one of their best games together and combined to shoot 22 of 34 from the field for 52 points (more points than Michigan has scored in either of their last two games).

The problem for Michigan is that Ohio State has Evan Turner back in the lineup. Turner is the front runner for National Player of the Year and the most complete player in the country. At 6-foot-7 Turner runs the point and leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. He also has a talented supporting cast:

• David Lighty: Lighty plays the four for Ohio State so Michigan won’t have to worry about dealing with a huge height advantage at that position. Lighty can do a bit of everything, he can hit the three (37.8%), get to the free throw line (44.2% FTR), and is also a great defender.
• Jon Diebler:Diebler is easily one of the best three point shooters in the Big Ten. He’s 83 of 191 (43.5%) on the year but is just athletic enough to drive when necessary to keep defenders honest.
• Dallas Lauderdale: Lauderdale looks physically imposing at 6-foot-8 255 pounds but he is a good not great rebounder, leaving Evan Turner to shoulder most of the rebounding burden. Lauderdale does sport an NCAA-best 76.4 FG%, most of this probably has to do with the fact that almost all of his baskets are layups and dunks off of Evan Turner assists.
• William Buford: Buford is the complete package. He’s athletic, long, and can shoot it. He doesn’t turn the ball over and is capable of finishing wherever Turner gets him the ball.
• Bench: Despite their talent at the top of the roster, Ohio State isn’t particularly deep. Kyle Madsen and Jerime Simmons are the only options that Thad Matta seems to trust off the bench and even they barely get any playing time. Madsen is the option when Lauderdale gets in foul trouble while Simmons has only played in three of Ohio State’s last six games.

At the macro team level, Ohio State is a statistical monster. Their adjusted efficiencies on both sides of the ball rank in Pomeroy’s top 20 and they are tied with Wisconsin and Purdue for the best efficiency margin in Big Ten play.

The one statistic that stands out on the offensive side of the ball is Ohio State’s 55.9 eFG% (3rd nationally). The Buckeyes shoot 55.7% on 2PA and 37.5% on 3PA. Interestingly enough, Michigan held Ohio State to their 2nd worst shooting performance of the year in their first match-up. Ohio State’s weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball are offensive rebounding and getting to the free throw line but honestly you can live without offensive rebounds and free throws when you shoot as well as Ohio State.

On defense, Ohio State is solid across the board and doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses. The weakest link appears to be allowing opponents to shoot a respectable 34.8% from three point range. With Ohio State’s length and athleticism it’s not surprising that they are a good defensive team. Since their loss at West Virginia, opponents are scoring only .94 points per trip. Michigan actually had the best offensive performance this year versus Ohio State scoring 1.17 points per trip with an eFG% of 61.5%.

The good news for Michigan is that they played not only one of their best games of the year in the first match-up, they played one of the best games that anyone has played versus Ohio State. The bad news is that Evan Turner is back, the game is in Columbus, and Michigan has looked absolutely awful offensively in their last two games.

Michigan made 21 of 41 (51%) threes in their last two road games compared to only 12 of 59 (20.3%) in their last two home games. Maybe there is something wrong with the rims in Crisler? The first key for Michigan is figure out a way to make shots. Judging by these Stu Douglass quotes, Michigan’s shooting woes are wreaking havoc in their own minds:

“It’s almost a vicious cycle thinking about it too much, like I’m going to hit this next one,” Douglass said. “You almost can’t even say that. Sometime you need to just quit thinking and just play. Even with the positive reinforcement sometimes turns into you thinking about it too much.”

Shooting has become such a laborious process for this team and they are making it harder than it is. Because I just finished re-watching a few seasons of The Wire, I point you to this gem (language warning):

David Simon uses this scene as a metaphor for the bureaucracy and lack of leadership within the Baltimore Police Department that prevents anything from getting done. For Michigan, the leadership and communication issues are definitely relevant but, more directly, shooting has become something like pushing a desk through a doorway from both directions. Michigan’s shooters beating themselves up. They are certainly working hard but they definitely aren’t working smart.  It is time for Michigan to take a step back, look at what they are doing, regroup, and just play ball.

KenPom likes Ohio State by 12 and gives Michigan only a 9% chance at the victory. It’s tough to disagree when you look at how well Ohio State has been playing of late compared to Michigan’s poor play. I’ll take Ohio State, 70-56. Let’s hear your thoughts and predictions in the comments.

• WTKA Recruiting Roundup (2-26-10) – Part 2
  Sam Webb with some basketball recruiting notes. There’s an update on Zeigler as well as mention of a new 2010 big man on the radar, Mat Piotrowski (ESPN profile with scouting). According to Webb, he’s a 7-foot-1 perimeter big man who attends prep school in New Jersey.
• Horford’s recruitment winding down, likes three
  Sam Hosey (or DaChairman) with a nice piece on Jon Horford including his final top 3: Michigan, Providence and Cal. Providence is the only school out of the three that has offered a scholarship at this point.
• Katenda Nets Big East Offer
  Here’s another big man on the recruiting radar, 6-foot-8 Eric Katenda (2011). Notre Dame has offered the Chesire Academy junior but UConn, Michigan, St. John’s, West Virginina, and Oregon State are already expressing interest.
• U-M guard Stu Douglass still searching for answers
  “It’s almost a vicious cycle thinking about it too much, like I’m going to hit this next one,” Douglass said. “You almost can’t even say that. Sometime you need to just quit thinking and just play. Even with the positive reinforcement sometimes turns into you thinking about it too much.”
• Birthday Blow Out
  Brundidge scored 29 points (with 6 assists and 5 rebounds) in a comeback victory in front of John Beilein last night.
• Senegal native Dieng could be a UK target ($)
  One more 2010 big man to keep an eye on: Gorgui Dieng. Dieng’s coach mentions Michigan as one of the schools recruiting Dieng but Louisville appears to be the leader. Video here.
• Opposing coaches scout top teams (cont.)
  Seth Davis breaks down the top 5 teams in the Big Ten with words from other coaches in the league.
• Are Announcers Necessary?
  Gasaway on television and the announcer.
• Purdue star Hummel out for season
  Just terrible news for Purdue. I thought they had a very good shot at not only winning the Big Ten and landing a #1 seed, but making a run to Indianapolis. It will be interesting to see how they react Sunday versus Michigan State.
• Turnovers or Shooting – What’s Eating Michigan State?
  KJ Pete concludes that, yes, shooting is killing Michigan State. I am willing to bet that Michigan fans won’t be very sympathetic to other teams complaining of lack of shooting prowess.

44 points gets you bullets. I could probably breakdown all 16 Michigan baskets in a full post game, so we might as well keep things short and simple. Full box score here. “Highlights” here.

• Michigan missed 49 shots, just two fewer than the Illini attempted all night long. If you are doing the math, Michigan’s 44 points on 65 shots equates to .67 points per shot.
• The shooting line was terrible: 29.4% on twos. 19.4% on threes. 50% on free throws. Michigan just couldn’t get anything to go down.
• Right now the shooting problems are mental and physical. There’s really just no way to explain it — this team can’t make wide open shots. Now the problem has even extended to layups. The problem is that they know all too well that they haven’t been able to shoot it. They are shooting not to miss and don’t have any confidence that their shot is going in.
• The late alley-oop play to Mike Davis was a microcosm of the season. Michigan played great defense and forced DJ Richardson into a desperate running three point attempt. The shot just caught iron and somehow careened into Mike Tisdale’s hands. Michigan didn’t end up with the bounce they needed and couldn’t make the one play that might have gotten them over the hump.
• Once again, turnovers kept Michigan in this one. Michigan forced turnovers on 27.4% of Illinois’ possessions while coughing it up on only 8.1% of their own.
• Despite Michigan’s poor shooting, you definitely can’t say that they have quit. The defensive intensity over the last two games has been some of the best all year. Darius Morris has done a great job on two of the best lead guards in the conference and Michigan held Illinois to only .8 points per possession.
• Michigan’s guards combined to shoot 1 of 18 from the field, that’s 5%. Douglass was terrible. Lucas-Perry was terrible. Morris did some nice things but also can’t shoot. Stat Sheet doesn’t have plus-minus numbers for this game up yet, but I would be willing to bet Lucas-Perry would come in last, his struggles are tough to watch.
• DeShawn Sims was a no-show but Zack Gibson provided a nice spark of energy. Sims has been lackadaisical in Michigan’s last two games totaling just 17 points on 7 of 22 shooting which is disappointing considering how well he had been playing this year in conference play.
• Shooting pull-up three pointers in transition is painful. Shooting long pull-up jumpers from one step in front of the three point line is inexcusable. Douglass thinks this is his shot for some reason and Manny is a fan of the shot as well. The three point shot in transition works when you have someone drive and kick (i.e. Novak vs. Duke), the pull-up three is just a terrible shot.
• Bruce Weber made some interesting comments in his post game about Illinois’ 16-19 (5-13) season in 2008 and the paralells between this year’s Michigan team. The gist was that sometimes seasons don’t go the right way because of leadership and chemistry. I know coaches tend to look out for their fellow coaches but he definitely made some interesting points about things that we’ve discussed here previously.
• Detroit Country Day class of 2011 big man  Amir Williams made the trip to Ann Arbor. You can see some recent video here.
• Tim Hardaway Jr.’s team lost in the state regional semi-finals despite Hardaway’s game high 20 points. Hardaway was “double-teamed him whenever he was near the three-point line” in the second half and held to only 2 points in the fourth quarter. Trey Zeigler had 27 points and 10 rebounds in Mount Pleasant’s 13th victory in a row, an overtime win over Bay City Central.