Update: Per Andy Katz: Manny Harris will give an apology statement for his actions at practice that forced a suspension for PU game. Michigan’s players and coaches will meet with the media at 2pm today.
On Manny Harris
I’ve been away from the internet since the Harris suspension news broke but here’s my take on the situation. I have very little doubt that the suspension was warranted. John Beilein has plenty of quirks and idiosyncrasies that baffle the mind but he is definitely not an idiot. He would not suspend his best player for a game without a valid reason. Anyone who suggests otherwise is crazy.
Putting aside whether the suspension was warranted or not, there is a bigger issue here. The fact that Harris did something in practice that warranted suspension.
It’s been a tough couple weeks for Harris. He has been struggled for long stretches, played poor defense, and has just looked lost and out of sorts at times. Some pointed to his lingering hamstring injury but I think it was more the effects of frustrating season, personally and for this team. His struggles peaked versus Wisconsin in what was easily one of his worst games this season.
Harris’s frustration likely reached its boiling point during whatever incident occurred in Friday’s practice. At this point, the key is to figure out how to move on post-incident.
Reading between the lines in Beilein’s statement regarding Harris, it appears that the team will be involved in whatever decision is made. The team practiced Sunday and will meet with the media this afternoon so I assume we will find out more then. Here’s Beilein’s statement:
We will meet with Manny and the team again when we return to determine if he has learned enough from this suspension to rejoin the team for Tuesday’s game. I am confident that this learning experience will be valuable in the future to both Manny and our basketball program.
Harris has reacted well to discipline before, whether it was scoring 28 points, 7 assists, and 6 rebounds versus Penn State after his Purdue ejection, 27 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists after his Iowa benching, or more recently, his run at the end of the Indiana game after being benched early in the 2nd half. There’s at evidence to point toward the fact that Harris is capable of putting together a strong performance after an incident like this, that is, if he is reinstated.
“Luck”
Ken Pomeroy includes a luck statistic in his ranking system. Essentially it measures how far a team’s actual win/loss results differ from his projections based on their statistical performance.
As you might have guessed, Michigan has not been all that lucky this year. Their luck rating ranks 320th in the NCAA and explains why their overall Pomeroy ranking of 60 is only slightly worse than last year’s final ranking of 50. For comparison’s sake, Michigan’s luck ranking was a much more impressive 131st in 2009 as they finished just a touch above their projections.
Interestingly enough, Michigan isn’t even the most unlucky team in the Big Ten. Illinois (324), Minnesota (342), and Penn State (346) all show up further down the list. A pair of Big East opponents that Michigan faced show up as well, Connecticut comes in 325th while Marquette is dead last (347).
Speaking of which, how the hell did Connecticut beat Texas? I didn’t see the game but I would be shocked to see the team that faced Michigan a week earlier knock off the #1 team in the nation.
I think that “luck” is the wrong word to describe this statistic because things like winning close games and gutting out ugly performances are a staple of any good team. When Wisconsin came back versus Michigan last week (and did the same thing versus Penn State yesterday) it’s not luck, it’s mental toughness. Likewise, Michigan State didn’t get lucky in Minneapolis they were the grittier team down the stretch and made the clutch plays (another element that statistics can’t take into account).
I wrote a post about the “killer instinct” earlier this year when I went to the Gonzaga/Michigan State game and there is no denying that Michigan State has this instinct. Their "luck" is about average this year (164th) but last year’s Final Four team was the 8th “luckiest” team for a reason.
Kelvin’s Back
It appears that Kelvin Grady is headed back to the basketball program. Beilein made it clear that Grady was brought back to boost the scout team and they would have to think long and hard about using Grady in a game and burning a year of eligibility.
Michigan’s point guard play has soured of late and it should be nice to have Grady back on the team, even just for practice. I doubt we will see him get much game action unless there are injuries or something along those lines.
This is really a no-loss situation for Michigan if Grady is willing to bust his ass in practice with the understanding that he is there to mostly be a scout team player.
Beilein’s presser is at 2 pm today. He will address the Harris situation
Kevin43, Who would that proven winner be that would be willing to leave a much better situation and take a step down to come to Michigan?
If they are unwatchable, then why are watching?
quick question…what do you mean “they would have to think long and hard about using Grady in a game and burning a year of eligibility.” what is grady’s scholarship status–is it for bball or football? how does his bball participation impact that?
Sean Miller’s only made the NCAA four times, and all of those times have been out of the Atlantic 10, a conference that at its best, is the tenth best conference in the country.
Let’s be realistic, Kevin43.
Eddie I was curious about the eligibility thing, too. I don’t think Beilein is talking about his football eligibility…There are players who play 2 sports, and still get to play for four years.
So that implies he doesn’t want to burn a year of basketball eligibility, which to me implies Kelvin is considering “just helping out on the scout team” this year, but maybe taking on a full time role in the following year(s). He has 2 years of hoops eligibility left, right?
Interesting…I always wished I knew what was going on with Grady…
Nice to see Grady back… guranteed fewer turnovers and more penitration when he gets onto the court.
As for all the Beilein bashing, its unwarrented and never happened last year. I dont know how people can think a coach can go from so great to bottom-of-the-barrell in only one year.
What championships has Miller won? A-10 championships with A-10 talent. Is that what you want?
i thought all along grady not playing basketball was a big mistake……he had the chance of being really good and maybe still does but needs to stay focused on 1 sport and go hard at it
“I think that “luck” is the wrong word to describe this statistic because things like winning close games and gutting out ugly performances are a staple of any good team.”
Dylan, I think you may be looking at the idea of “luck” the wrong way here. There are certainly aspects of a game/comebacks that speak to a team as a whole, but in close games (those decided by 4 or less points) luck is a huge factor. Last year, against Indiana late in the season, LLP hit a three pointer that clanged off the front of the rim, bounced above the basket, and ended up going in, which, if I can recall correctly, was basically the only reason Michigan won that game. Sure, you can say that a team worked themselves into that position, but if that ball is an inch shorter, it doesn’t go in and Michigan loses.
Say what you will about good shooters, etc., but those are the sort of fractional differences that can mean winning and losing a game. And to a large extent those are luck. How many toss up charge/block fouls go against you; this sort of thing is largely luck. I don’t quite know how you quantify this (I assume it has something to do with statistical significance, win/loss margin, and games decided by less than X points), but there is undeniably an aspect of luck that goes into these games.
Not sure about the eligibility. Here’s the quote from Beilein:
Beilein remained clear that Grady would be a scout team player. But he left open the possibility — albeit slight — that Grady could make an appearance on the court in an upcoming game.
“Well, if all of a sudden in two weeks … but then he’d be using a year of eligibility as well,” Beilein. “So you have to be very careful about it. We’d get to that point if it comes where we have an injury or there’s something that goes on that we may need
http://freep.com/article/20100.....id-for-U-M
Sean Miller is a very good coach, but he just went to Arizona, and Beilein is here through 2016. WE ARE NOT GETTING A NEW COACH! Give it a rest already. I’m tired of people like Kevin/Ted/Scott coming on here and just posting the same thing over and over again.
The stuff coming out about Grady is intriguing. I’m fairly sure that the football/basketball years of eligibility are separate issues. For example, Greg Paulus used up his basketball eligibility and then went to Syracuse to play quarterback. I’d love to know exactly how it works when you do that, i.e. can Paulus play four years of football now?
Beilein has won championships at every stop before WVU. At Richmond he won CAA Tournament Championship in 1998 and the CAA Regular Season Championship in 2001. At Canisius he won the MAAC Tournament Championship in 1996 and the MAAC Regular Season Championship in 1994. At LeMoyne he won the MCC Regular & Conference Championship in 1988.
I understand that these early years might not weigh as heavily in terms of his recent success, but let’s get the facts straight before blindly burying the guy.
I’m not saying luck isn’t a factor in a basketball game. It almost certainly is in any sport, who gets what bounces etc. But in terms of comparing a statistical projection to actual level of play, I don’t think that really quantifies “luck” per say.
Kevin43 – We were mentally tough last year. Wouldn’t that imply that players determine mental toughness more than the coach?
Well yeah, in that regard I agree. I’d be interested in seeing how it’s computed.
Jeff,
No Paulus is done now. A player has 10 semesters of eligibility, but only 8 can be played in one sport. So he played four years of basketball at Duke and one year of football at Syracuse so he is done.
But based on that I am confused in regard to Beilein’s comments about Kelvin’s eligibility.
Here’s the gist of it Chris: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.p.....planation/
The new ones are Cons (Consistency) and Luck. The easiest one to understand is Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest.
proven winners that have won championships and you point to Sean Miller or Lon Kruger???
As for the eligibility thing, I believe that the NCAA gives you five years to use up four years of eligibility in any particular sport, unless granted medical redshirts. I think you can play as many sports as you want during that time period but you only count the years playing a particular sport towards your four years in that sport. Greg Paulus played four years consecutively at Duke, so he had another year left on his eligibility to play another sport. He could only play one year of football because the five years would be up. Im not certain on this five year thing, but I think that is what I recall from other situations.
Thanks Zach, that clears it up a lot. Beilein could easily have been referring to Grady’s football eligibility in that case.
Oh, that’s disappointing. Luck, in this formula, is based on an already arbitrary number. It would be nice if they put together a formula that would take into account something like SoS, Off Eff, Def Eff, etc.–taking national averages and balancing where the team sits, and how it’s actually performed–and get an expected win/loss record, and then compare that against the team’s current record.
KenPom, you disappoint me.
Thinking about Kelvin’s eligibility more, Beilein’s comment makes more sense to me.
Kelvin used two years of eligibility in basketball and now one year in football. So if Kelvin doesn’t play this year, he could play both football and basketball for his remaining two years. But if he does play this year, he only has one year left of basketball eligibility (along with two years of football).
No I think playing basketball would have no effect on his football eligibility. He would still be allowed to use up all four years in football regardless of other sports assuming he did so within the five years or 10 semesters.
I thought it was called “dechellis,” anyway.
http://www.basketballprospectu.....red/?p=193
(bottom of the post)
my No was is regards to Jeff. Zach is correct.
Did some thinking on Grady and here’s my interpretation.
You have 5 years to use 4 years of eligibility. He’s used two for basketball, one for football. But he’s used 3 of his 5 years.
He technically should be able to play 2 more years of both basketball and football if I am doing my math right.
Since Kelvin did not redshirt his freshman year (2007-08), I believe that means that he can play basketball in 2011-12 as long as he doesn’t use up 4 years of basketball eligibility before then.
From Andy Katz:
Per UM: Manny Harris will give an apology statement for his actions at practice that forced a suspension for PU game.
Dylan, I agree assuming he doesn’t play this year.
If he plays this year, he would only have one more year of basketball eligibility. And he would still have 2 years left of football eligibility.
It takes one game to change a season and Michigan State at home could be that game. Also let’s give the team a chance to finish this season strong.
That was my interpretation as well, which again, implies Grady might want to be around in the future/Beilein wants him around in the future which is interesting.
If his scholarship continues to count against football (who has extra schollies anyway), then this is the best possible outcome. We will continue to have the most amazing non-scholarship players in NCAA history (and this is a good thing, I’m not being sarcastic).
As an ecologist, I would use something like “stochastic calculus” instead of luck. But–unless I’m misreading–this has nothing to do with the other team’s toughness or ability to play itself back into a game (another variable that’s difficult to quantify). It’s about calls that could go either way, odd bounces of the ball, bad rims, torn ligaments, and what the official in question had for lunch.
Kevin: It’s almost impossible to win on the road in the Big Ten. In ‘07, MSU won 1 road game in conference play. In ‘06 they won 2. In ‘08 they won 3.
Is that program not mentally tough?
if Manny’s going to speak at 2, I think this reinforces the general idea that Manny’s a pretty good kid. I also think Brian over at mgoblog was way overblown in his reaction: “This affirms my feeling that Manny is gone and he and Beilein don’t see eye to eye.”
Not a direct quote but that was the sentiment. Anyway, we’ll see what happens, but I think this is *probably* an encouraging development.
The number of B10 teams who currently have a winning record on the road in conference play = 1.
I am not going to give up on the team, if they pull out a win against MSU they could get on a winning streak because of an easier schedule against the likes of teams like PSU and Iowa.
“Michigan Basketball: GO BLUE!!! BEAT STATE!!!” video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXBuHvg9BVU
#1 message board pet peeve. Posters who blame every loss on a coach and want a new one every five minutes.
Beilein just signed an extention. He is our coach. End of discussion.
Dylan, arguing with these jokers is like arguing with my 5 year old when he wants cookies for dinner.
I’m just telling him he’s wasting his time. And no you can’t have a cookie.
Kevin, you’re entitled to your opinion, not entitled for reasonable people to not call it dumb.
You complain about Beilein’s road record: As Dylan pointed out, MSU had won 6 road games in 3 years prior to last year…sort of like…Michigan?
No one is saying that Michigan is as good as Michigan State. The issue is that a dominant program like Michigan State still struggles on the road, it’s a fact of life in the Big Ten.
Beilein is a good basketball coach. We’re having a bad year. Ask anyone who knows basketball and they will mention Beilein in the top 10 coaches in the nation. We’ve narrowly missed on some big time recruits (Draymond Green, Casey Prather, etc.). We are not getting a new coach so why even complain about it. You weren’t complaining last year when we beat Duke, UCLA, and Clemson.
This talk about mental toughness dovetails directly with Texas’ loss to UConn. Now there’s a team with no mental toughness. They don’t think they ever have to play defense. As a result, they let a team that committed 16 first half turnovers stay in the game, and then gave up 54(!) second half points. What a sorry excuse for a “#1″ team. Kansas is going to steamroll them. There’s not a chance they’ll win the NCAA or Big XII Tournament. Rick Barnes teams always underperform.
Cato exhibits another message board pet peeve–the wild exaggeration. It’s the old “not a D1 level player” chestnut. I hate to tell you this but every player currently on the team and who was offered a scholarship by the team is a D1 player. I don’t think you understand what D1 means. Guys like Gibson and Wright are not B10 level players, but would be good enough to start on many D1 programs. Guys like Morgan and McLimans probably won’t be good enough to be starters on a winning B10 team, but may be important rotation guys. Smotrycz and Horford (if we get him) have even more potential. Beilein must be one heck of a coach if he took a team with only 2 D1 players to the second round of the NCAA tournament in 2009.
I like how you know that McLimans is a complete waste when the guy has not even played a single minute yet. You must be very connected to see UM practices that much.
As for getting layups, UM has to play a four guard lineup with only one guard who is capable right now of scoring off the dribble. It would not matter what system they were running, they are not going to get a lot of layups with the current construction of the team.
Oh, so recruiting McLimans, who hasn’t played a single game yet, was a waste? What evidence do you have for this?
Why is everyone so quick to jump to conclusions?
John Beilein has no mental toughness?? If you watched us last season you know that mental toughness was our greatest strength. His first year he had absolutely nothing to work with.
He can’t recruit Big Ten players?? Not many Big Ten level players were interested in Michigan in his first recruiting class and he managed to steal a few good players in Novak and Douglass. Cronin’s situation is simply poor luck.
In his second recruiting class he brings in two 4 star guards, and 2 big men. The guards are TRUE FRESHMEN and are playing like true freshmen. If Beilein would have inherited more depth they wouldn’t be asked to play huge roles and their deficiencies would be masked. The big men are redshirting.
In his third recruiting class he’s received commitments from a top 100 forward, and a long, athletic scorer with an NBA pedigree. We’re also in contention for a top 30 player.
In his fourth class he has already secured a commitment from a top 100 junior and is on the short list for many more (Plumlee and Williams come to mind)
Geez people. Be realistic, be patient. This isn’t College Hoops 2k10. Consider all the variables before you jump to conclusions about John Beilein and our program.
I can’t help but wonder if Cato, Kevin, Ted and Scott are all the same person. Are there that many different people who are that ignorant? Did you actually say Vogrich and Morris’s rating were wrong because they’ve had disappointing freshman years? Well, Deshawn Sims averaged 3 ppg and shot 33% from the floor his freshman year, was his highschool rating wrong? Trevon Hughes averaged 1 ppg, and shot in the low 30s his freshman year, do you think Wisconsin regrets recruiting him. Mike Tisdale averaged 3 ppg his freshman year, why is that? I’ll tell you why, because the adjustment from the highschool game to college is huge. Some players adjust more quickly than others, some take more time, but still turn out fine. If you’ve paid any attention the last three years, you would know that Beilein’s system is complicated and takes a long time to get comfortable in. Take a look at Harris and Sims FG% in their first year in the system until now–it’s night and day. I expected a little more out of Vogrich and Morris this year, but to write them off, and say their recruiting ratings are wrong, is crazy.
Jeff: You are actually right a number of those people are the same person. I have been doing a woeful job of keeping up with the comments lately, I am really thinking of moving to a registration system to prevent people from “duplicating” themselves.
I just eliminated a lot of the comments and tried to ban his IP again. Don’t hesitate to e-mail me if you think something like that is going on again.
Cato, in his first recruiting class he had little time and was trying to sell a program that was pretty bad. Go look at Amaker’s last several recruiting classes, they were pretty bad. He got what he could get in Douglass, Novak and Cronin. His class he got two solid guards and two bigs. Unfortunately, he lost Udoh for several reasons (some of which were because he is John Beilein and some of which were not his fault). Cronin suffered a career ending injury. Morgan got hurt before he could ever play. Who knows what this team looks like if those things dont happen.
Im amazed by the fact that this program is just now starting to turn things around and people like you want to throw it all away and start over. Thank God we have smart enough people in charge to prevent any of you types (Cato, Ted, Scott, etc.) from getting hired in decision making positions.
Ha, that figures Dylan. No worries on keeping up with the comments though, you do such a great job with the content that it more than makes up for having to deal with any of these fools.
Cato – the NCAA is littered with players with excellent upper-classmen who did nothing as freshmen. A brief list off the top of my head:
Trevon Hughes (Wisconsin)
John Leuer (Wisconsin)
DeShawn Sims (Michigan)
JaJuan Johnson (Purdue)
Damion James (Texas)
Ekpe Udoh (Baylor)
Nolan Smith (Duke)
Cole Aldrich (Kansas)
Chris Wright (G’Town)
Kevin Jones (WVU)
Jacob Pullen (Kansas St.)
Ashton Gibbs (Pitt)
All these guys contributed 5 points or less as freshman, and are all one of the two best players on their team this year.
So yeah, Vogrich has struggled. The verdict isn’t it.
Hopefully Cato and all of his identities won’t be able to post here. I think I’ve banned his work IP (Valassis) and his home IP but if he pops up again we’ll just have to handle that when the time comes.
Thanks Dylan. You do a great job on this site.
Ask anyone who knows the game, Miller runs the best sets against man to man out there. Winning the A-10 with A-10 talent? They won it 4 years in a row? What else did he have to prove? To do it 8? 15? His teams went deep the past 2 years, and were a flagrant foul away from 16 in 2007.
well he has certainly done a great job this year. 10-9 with what like 7 four star or better players on the roster. Shouldnt he be run out of town by now?
I think Miller is an excellent coach. I also think he just became the head coach at Arizona. I think most people in America would agree that Arizona has been a better program than Michigan the last 15 years. Why are we talking about him again?
Tweeter, great point, although they will usually give you one year. He better make the tournament next year though. I think this is also Crean’s last year of getting a relatively free pass–I personally really like what he’s doing at IU though.
Jeff I was just pointing out how these small few posters here want to run Beilein out of town for a guy like Miller, even though Beilein is doing better with less talent. Obviously Miller’s job is safe right now. I think he will end up doing a good job at Zona, but this coaching thing aint that easy even at a place like Arizona where my two-year old niece could recruit five star talent.
The discussion about road performance got me wondering: Just how have Big Ten teams fared on the road in conference play since Beilein’s arrival?
MSU: 14-7
Wis: 13-9
Pur: 12-10
Ill: 7-14
IU: 7-14
Minn: 7-15
OSU: 7-15
U-M: 6-16
NU: 5-16
PSU: 5-17
Iowa: 3-18
Pretty big chasm between the big three and everyone else. But at least we’re in the same ballpark as everyone else.