Jan 14, 2010 at 11:20 am by Dylan Burkhardt Filed under: Uncategorized

Game 16: Indiana at Michigan Preview

Basics

Who: Michigan (8-7) vs. Indiana (7-8)
Where
: Crisler Arena, Ann Arbor, MI
When: Jan. 14th, 9:00 PM EST
TV: ESPN / ESPN360.com
Radio
: MGoBlue, WWJ 950 AM/WTKA 1050 AM
Line
: Michigan by 13.5
Stats: Live TFS
Opposition Blog: Inside the Hall
Pomeroy Profile

IUlogo[1]

Days after losing their leading scorer, freshman Maurice Creek, Indiana rallied and knocked off Michigan, 71-65. The difference in the first match-up was Indiana’s ability to get to the line. Michigan committed several ticky tack fouls and Indiana posted an impressive free throw rate of 59%, the worst Michigan has given up all year.

In the first match-up, Sims and Harris were underwhelming combining for 25 points on 9 of 23 shooting and pulling down only 4 rebounds.  Verdell Jones, Christian Watford, and Devan Dumes provided the bulk of the scoring for the Hoosiers but it was Jeremiah Rivers’ scoop layup in traffic that put the game out of reach.

Michigan looks to get back on the winning track after last weekend’s disappointing collapse versus Northwestern.  A home win over Indiana is a must for just about any team in the conference and Michigan is no different.

Through 4 games of the 5 game stretch that many deemed must wins, Michigan is only 2-2. One thing is certain, after tonight it doesn’t get any easier. Michigan hosts UConn and then heads to Wisconsin and Purdue before the Spartans come to town on January 26th.

Indiana’s strength on offense is getting to the free throw line (44.2% FTR), the problem is that they only shoot 66% from the charity stripe. They turn the ball over a lot, although they won the turnover battle in their first matchup with Michigan, and shoot a mediocre 48.9% effective field goal percentage. They do shoot 36.1% from three point range but only take 27.3% of their shots from three point range.

Indiana’s defense is a bit more impressive. They hold opponents to an eFG% of 45.8 and force turnovers on 23.1% of opponents’ possessions. However, they give up a lot of free throws (FTR 44.9%) and are mediocre on the defensive glass (66.5 DR%).

Listening to Tom Crean speak, it appears that Indiana is content with matching Michigan’s size, rather than trying to go big and overpower them. That means we will likely see a lineup of Verdell Jones III, Jeremiah Rivers, Jordan Hulls, Christian Watford, and Tom Pritchard. Watford is a versatile four man who can score inside and out. Verdell Jones is the guy who can create in the backcourt and killed Michigan the first time around with 20 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and 3 steals.

Vegas likes Michigan a lot in this one, calling them 13 point favorites, while KenPom says Michigan by 9. I expect much better performances from DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris at home, but I have a tough time assuming any game will be an easy victory for Michigan.

The key for Michigan is to keep Indiana off the free throw line, take care of the ball, and get DeShawn Sims involved early and often. If they manage that, they should be ok against an Indiana team that not only hasn’t won a road game this year, they’ve only played one.

Question of the day: How many non-student fans show up for this one? A 9PM tip against a low-level Big Ten team after a disappointing home loss is the recipe for a very weak crowd.

Pre-Game Links

  • http://umhoops.com Mattski

    Bilas said that–or something like it–during the Indiana game, too. I know longer think he’s right that they’re top-25 caliber. But they can play with greater consistency, and seeing them gel over the season’s half and knock off some good teams would be great compensation for those who followed them so far w. such high hopes. Given that next season is, in many ways, a back-to-square-one proposition, we need all the inspiration we can get.

  • maxwell’s demon

    I would hope that our dreams of making the NCAA tourney have died so that we can just go play some basketball.

  • AG2

    Your preview pretty much nailed it: IU won the first game because of fouls and free throws. Fix that and it shouldn’t be close.

  • Eddie

    Why I am still an optimist confounds me, but I see a big win tonite. I also see some surprise performances from Gibson and Vogrich, that will once again flame our hopes for a decent showing over the next four games.

    Mind you, I have nothing at all to base any of this on. Sigh…

  • Andy

    9pm start actually helps this non-student fan. Time to go home, eat dinner with the family and head back out for the game as the kid goes to sleep. At least I have that going for me.

  • stevefisherbroughtushonor

    Great post, and certainly foul problems were to blame in the first IU game. But how do you “give up” a high FT%? I mean, it’s probably a little harder to hit FTs on the road, due to hostile crowd/foreign rims, so UM should have that small advantage over the last outing. But aside from raising your hands in an intimidating fashion, how do you limit your opponent’s FT%?

    I for one am pumped: Michigan’s road to the final four runs straight through this mediocre, shorthanded IU team! Let’s hope J. Rivers plays as nervous and fidgety as he did at G’town!

  • Dylan

    You can give up a lot of free throws by fouling a lot. FTR or free throw rate refers to the number of free throws attempted over the number of field goals attempted. This is different than free throw percentage which obviously the defense can’t control.

  • Paul F.

    Go Blue! I’ll be there. Got win this one. It’s my first time seeing Tom Crean as a head coach.

  • mike

    not that it really matters since we kind of already blew this season away, but I just have to give up watchin them this season if they blow it to Indiana tonight at home. Gonna be too hard to watch reat of year

  • JimC

    I’m with Maxwell about just forgetting the tournament talk. It’s a bit of a relief to just focus on the conference now. And here’s a fun fact, in conf, M is currently tied for 5th with Purdue, who was ranked #4 10 days ago!

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    There was a rumor that Hardaway suffered a season ending injury but he had 31 points in a 67-66 win over rival Killian. Hardaway hit 5 three pointers and also dished 4 assists.

  • Tweeter

    Lets not give up all hope guys. Sure their chances of making the tournament look very slim at this point, but the nice thing is that they have several big statement games left. If they can somehow win some of those and finish up 11-7 in conference, they would have a shot. Obviously I would not bet any money on that considering how they have played this year, but think back to last year and how many people gave up on the team after that Iowa game.

    The big thing that I would like to see happen if they cant get a lot of those upsets, is find a way to get into the top five in BT. That would give them a shot at winning the BTT. Anything below that and they would have to win 4 straight which is asking an awful lot.

    I still think its way to early to start talking about the tourney, so no reason to throw in the towel with the meat of the BT schedule upon on us. Lets just get this win tonight!

  • Drew

    Yikes, just saw that Trey tweeted about Coach K and Nate James being at his practice today… that is not good news. I have a hunch he’s going to Duke, but what the hell do I know?

  • http://umhoops.com Wayman Britt

    Trey may go to Duke, but that would be a bad move for him. He would be just another player, while if he came to UM he could be the star. He could get 15 to 18 shots a game. Trey – you would be the man!

  • maxwell’s demon

    Man, I hate Duke so much.

  • AG2

    I’m not sure he’d be “just another player” considering how shorthanded they are right now. They can’t go more than 7 deep can they?

  • mike

    ya im not giving up hope yet, but really 2 lose twice to Indiana is horrible, I mean we should be 4-0 and going on 5-0 in the bigten playin the weaker teams in league and blowing a win against NW. Ya will have a chance in the big ten tourney if we can avoid playin Purdue, Mich st, and Wisconsin (W/ Leur)Which aint gonna happen.

  • Drew

    I believe Scheyer is a senior (Feel like he’s been there about 7 years), and Smith/Singler are both juniors, I don’t know if they are great pro prospects so I think they’ll be back. But for him to have one year to develop coming off the bench as a freshmen and being groomed for a starting role his sophomore year… well that sounds pretty ideal to me. Damn.

  • AG2

    ESPN just did one of those “awkward camera in the face” previews of the Michigan game with Manny stretching on the ground. He turns to the camera flashes the name on his jersey and says “Go Blue, Baby”.

    Awesome

  • Drew

    0-3 on mostly open looks from three. I know it’s early, but when will these shots EVER go in. Ugh, so frustrating.

  • maxwell’s demon

    Why does Stu feel obligated to make passes one-handed whenever possible?

  • AG2

    Its funny, Michigan always seems to struggle to defend Devin Dumes. Isn’t he a transfer from Eastern?

  • stevefisherbroughtushonor

    Great to see LLP hit a 3, but wolverines are playing some sloppy ball out there: wild passes, awkward dribbling, unfocused defense. Guys are clearly pumped, but that’s not necessarily a good thing. Gotta slow down and focus.

  • AG2

    Manny airballs a 3 and Sims gets the rebound and putback for 3pt play. This “rebounding” thing is pretty cool, eh?

  • maxwell’s demon

    Defense keeping us in this one.

  • Drew

    I think I just saw Ant contribute on defense?! Haven’t been drinking either… man

  • chris

    geez…two drives where lucas0perry should have tried to score rather than kick out

  • AG2

    Just as I thought. Free throws and fouls have made the difference so far.

    Still, they’ve combined for 6 baskets and 10 turnovers. Whoever sharpens up first could take control.

  • stevefisherbroughtushonor

    They’re running around like chickens with their heads cut off, throwing the ball away on every possession. This is a talented bunch, and the D is OK, but the offensive play is rushed and undisciplined. I think there’s something seriously wrong with the system.

  • KDavis

    I like seeing guys be aggressive, but at times LLP and Darius both try to do too much off the dribble. It’s something no one on this does enough of, but when those two do it, it seems to result in a turnover or a missed shot because neither guys seem able to finish around the basket.

    1-6 from 3 now? Same ol’, same ol’.

    Stu seems to be making an effort to go over screens.

    Manny seems complacent at times. He drifts to the low wing/baseline area. I really wish he’d just go off for 30, Michigan wins by 20, and I can limit my curse words to under 10 during this game.

    Go Blue!

  • KDavis

    I like seeing guys be aggressive, but at times LLP and Darius both try to do too much off the dribble. It’s something no one on this does enough of, but when those two do it, it seems to result in a turnover or a missed shot because neither guys seem able to finish around the basket.

    1-6 from 3 now? Same ol’, same ol’.

    Stu seems to be making an effort to go over screens.

    Stu has also picked up 2 cheap fouls.

    Manny seems complacent at times. He drifts to the low wing/baseline area. I really wish he’d just go off for 30, Michigan wins by 20, and I can limit my curse words to under 10 during this game.

    Go Blue!

  • ohmigods

    Nice play D Morris
    sweet dish 2 peedi

  • steve

    this makes me more angry that we lost to them there. jesus all you have to do is play solid against this IU team and u should win. they have 7 frickin points in 12 minutes for gods sake and we cant take control. this IU team is not good. just play solid and smart.

  • Dylan

    Incredibly sloppy play. Michigan leads 17-9 after 12 minutes of play. Key is to not get caught up in the slopfest that IU tries to create. Gotta play smart.

  • Mith

    Why can’t we shoot the 3?

  • Nick

    ESPN’s boxscore has Jordan Dumars coming off the bench to go 0-2 on FGs, including 0-1 from three. It looks like they don’t think very much of his abilities, given that he is sitting on the bench in a suit and not in uniform: http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=300140130

  • JB

    IU is not good. i wish we could just put them away, but i’m afraid we’re not much better at this point in the season. i hate to say it, but we’re not a very disciplined team.

    i think trey’s interested in too many big name schools and unless we turn this season around, it’s a long shot he’ll end up at michigan. getting horford is crucial.

  • KDavis

    Sims must’ve gotten some manliness in his stocking for Christmas. Thank you Santa Claus (and sweet baby Jesus) because without Sims playing the way he is, this would be really ugly.

  • Alyzen

    Ugly offense, but they do seem to be getting in there and fighting for boards a lot more than they have been. That’s making a difference.

  • maxwell’s demon

    Sims > Harris

  • KDavis

    Manny still hasn’t figured out good shot vs. bad shot.

    And his man has gotten at least 2 offensive rebounds (and scored on the last one).

    Manny gives me hope. And, yet, at times he makes me want to beat my children. (For full disclosure, I have no children. Put the phone down.)

  • AG2

    This is some mediocre officiating. How many steps did Pritchard take when he lost the ball down low and no travel call? 4? 5?

  • maxwell’s demon

    Like a hounddog or a hamster. Nice Lavin.

  • Alyzen

    LLP just cannot finish a drive.

  • Ben

    This team needs to figure things out and fast…. very disappointing,we need to get some production from our freshman

  • Ben

    I’m sick of seeing freshman across the country light it up and our freshman look frickin lost half the time…. has I’m writing this vogrich hits a 3….lol

  • stevefisherbroughtushonor

    it seems every time Manny drives to the net he turns it over. we’re only winning because of IU’s fouling.

    also, when vogrich shoots a much-welcome 3, he gets so excited that his (already marginal) defensive skills go down the toilet.

  • Drew

    With the way we’ve played this year, I didn’t think there would be a whole lot of halftime leads in the Big Ten that I’d be so disappointed about. But jesus christ, that was the ugliest half of basketball I’ve seen from any team in a while. Nice to see Vogrich make his first three in forever though.

  • Ben

    I get frustrated because were taking a step back from last year when we should be improving….
    P.S Manny is not ready for the NBA and I hope he realises this

  • Dylan

    Jeremiah Rivers held Harris without a field goal in the first half. A lot of terrible shot selection from Harris.

    Sims is really the only bright spot for Michigan. Poor guard play has been appalling. Lucas Perry and Douglass both played a terrible half. Nice to see Vogrich come in for Lucas Perry and hit a three as well.

    Like every IU game it seems… There have been a ton of fouls on both ends.

    Disappointing effort from Michigan overall, need to do better in the second

  • KDavis

    11 motherlovin’ turnovers in the first half. Sheesh. That’s Ellerbe/Amaker style.

    I laughed last year when we were winning with two guards, one a walk-on, the other a transfer from Manhattan. I’m not laughing anymore. This is sick.

    Last year we averaged around 11 turnovers (or less?) per game.

  • Dylan

    both teams shooting in the 30% range. both turning it over on 30+% of poss. iu scoring .63 ppp Michigan .84. Gross.

  • timeout1993

    Random thoughts: I agree wholeheartedly with Ben abut Harris. But I kinda sympathize with Manny’s rather desperate ball-hogging – aside from Sims, nobody on this team can finish with any regularity.

    Morris and LLP were/are touted players, and look how little impact they have on the court. Surely, Beilein’s system shares some of the blame for this poor production.

    Best play of the half was Novak’s foul on Rivers — he knew Rivers has the mental toughness of a 2009 UM rookie, and he predictably bricked his free throws. Rivers’ play is what makes me skeptical about Michigan’s new “NBA sons” recruiting policy.

  • Ben

    Is it sad that i’m already looking at next years team….

  • maxwell’s demon

    Vogrich might be outplaying Manny tonight.

  • AG2

    Ben, you’re missing potentially Horford and Smotrycz and Hardaway. Apparently, Steve Lavin thinks they run Beilein’s offense better with Manny on the Bench.

  • Dylan

    There is no might about it Maxwell.

  • maxwell’s demon

    Not sure I really disagree with Lavin at the moment.

  • steve

    is this the worst basketball game ever? besides that penn state illinois game where it was like 36 to 33?…
    just not fun to watch

  • Drew

    Just when I think this game can’t get any uglier, it does. Wow. I try to turn the channel to find some quality hoops and run into Depaul-Providence… Yikes. ESPN really F’ed up their primetime coverage tonight.

  • Drew

    That was the worst And One foul call on Sims I’ve seen in my entire life. I don’t think he even touched him.

  • timeout1993

    There appears to be an inverse relationship between the quality of Harris’ play and the rest of the team’s.

  • michigan fan

    The Michigan ball handling and decision making on offense is really bad. Hard to believe that some of this is not coaching.

  • timeout1993

    sweet play by Darius Morris.

  • maxwell’s demon

    Once again Michigan proving they are capable of about 10-20 minutes of really good basketball a game.

  • steve

    nice to see manny play up to his potential in the second half. where was this mentality in bloomington? i know there was foul trouble but we should have beaten this team… they are not good. looks like were going to get a W even though we played mediocre.

  • biakabatuka

    I love how Musberger loves Rivers so much (because of his dad) that he keeps calling him Jeremiah.

    Also, in the rare occasions (like now) that Sims, DMorris, LLP and Harris are all hot, we are actually a good team.

    Because they are the team’s four athletes.

  • AG2

    Sigh, all I can think about is that NW loss. We really should be 4-1 going into that UConn game. But nothing can be done now. Just gotta beat UConn and then grind out 8 more Big Ten wins.

    Man, can Novak hustle!

    Oh, and Drew FSN has some Pac-10 Basketball, then again you said you wanted *quality*, lol.

  • biakabatuka

    Question looking to the future (beyond UConn):

    What do you guys think are out chances in the Minnesota series? They seem like a bubble team to me. Are we better?

  • Drew

    That was the worst 24 point win ever, lol

  • timeout1993

    Drew speaks the truth. Solid finish but I hope that toothless IU team didn’t slacken us too much for the Connecticut game. Also, anybody notice Morris made some great backdoor moves but never got any passes?

    Team needs to keep their heads up.

  • Kevin in GR

    Think we see D-Mo starting on Sunday? I think so! Something I noticed tonight was that it seemed when we really got things going, we were looking to drive the ball………Novak did it a few times, as well as D-Mo and LLP’s sweet drive and layup. It seems like in the past we were so focused on shooting the 3 and not looking to drive…I think they’re a much better team when others (than Manny) look to drive.

  • Tweeter

    Just got home and too tired to really comment at length about the game. But really good effort tonight defensively. Guys moved their feet and cut off the drive, close outs were solid and people were in passing lanes. Offensive reboudns were really IUs best offense.

    On the other side, I agree that we saw some guys attack more than usual. Novak and LLP in particular. I have noticed Novak lately looking to drive more, and it was nice to see him finish once around the rim. Turnovers are still an issue though, and unfortunately its not just one guy. Everyone seems to be getting sloppy with the ball.

    One last thought, the crowd was pretty pathetic tonight. Dont know how it sounded on TV, but there were far less people than were at the NW game. I know that this team and UM bball in general need to earn their fans back after the years of futility, but still its tough to see such a poor showing for a national tv game against IU.

  • biakabatuka

    I’d love to go to a game at Crisler. Here in Toronto I have to content myself with finding the occasional, fuzzy online stream. I can report that the crowd sounded pretty decent on TV.

  • Drew

    LLP needs to look to finish when he gets in the lane. I feel like there are so many instances where he is right there in the paint but unncessarily kicks the ball out, and it seems to not have great results. Just go up with it!

  • JimC

    @biakabatuka, no shock, but we should split with MN. That raised floor always messes with our (already shaky) shooters.

  • KDavis

    I don’t remember ever seeing an uglier blowout win. Manny’s game reminded me of a young Jalen Rose. I remember a couple games where Jalen played awful in the first half (vs Illinois and Iowa, sophomore year, I think), only to dominate the second half.

    I’m still waiting to see a complete game from the team. Sunday would be as good of time as any. I see an ass whoopin’ in UConn’s near future. Go Blue!

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