Revisiting the Freshman Class

Dylan Burkhardt
on

Before the season I predicted a Freshman All-Big Ten team which included Royce White, DJ Richardson, Christian Watford, Drew Crawford, and Maurice Creek. Since then, White has been arrested twice once and Maurice Creek suffered a season ending knee injury. Watford, Richardson and Crawford have all put together very solid freshmen campaigns thus far.

In an effort to look at freshmen across the conference, I pulled the data from Ken Pomeroy’s statistics to find all of the freshmen who have played over 35% of the minutes at their position. 16 players fit the bill and here are their basic tempo free stats sorted by usage% (number of possessions that a player users). Click any header to sort by that column. For explanations of the stats, read the player section here.

Name Team %Min ORtg %Poss eFG% OR% DR% FTR Ast% TO% PPG RPG
C. Watford IU 63.7 97.6 25.7 44.1 6.4 17.2 53.1 5 19.2 12.9 5.8
B. Paul ILL 56 105.8 24.3 47.6 6.9 5.1 31 13.8 15.2 10.4 2.4
M. Creek IU 58.7 125.3 23.9 64.1 6.6 9.2 29 17.3 13.4 16.4 3.8
T. Frazier PSU 54.5 97.5 23 45.3 3.6 11.6 54.7 27.3 25.5 7.1 2.9
E. May IOWA 67.3 98.1 22.7 49 7.9 16.2 42.9 14.3 21.6 9.5 5.3
D. Elston IU 39 105.1 20.7 55 12.1 16.4 24.3 7.4 18.1 6.7 4.2
C. Payne IOWA 80.2 89.9 19.8 48.5 0.8 9.6 28.7 24.7 29.7 8.2 2.6
D. Crawford NW 59.4 120 19.4 62 7.8 11.5 21.9 15.9 12.9 10.2 4
K. Barlow PU 41.3 85.9 19.3 43.8 7.7 10.1 31.3 20.9 29.9 3.6 2.4
R. Williams MINN 35.2 113.9 18.6 61.2 6.8 6.9 37.9 7.9 16.5 6.4 2.1
A. Marcotullio NW 44.2 120.5 18.4 61.6 1 10.9 23.3 17.7 9.9 7.9 1.9
DJ Richardson ILL 71.2 110.5 18.3 52.2 2.3 7.7 21.9 6.2 10.9 11 2.8
B. Cougill IOWA 44.8 106.6 16.3 56 9.4 17.2 22.4 7.1 18.1 5 3.5
D. Morris MI 56.2 86.6 15.9 48.1 1.9 8.1 30.2 18 30.9 4.7 1.9
J. Hulls IU 46.2 125.2 12.1 54.5 3.5 8.6 36.2 18.2 15 4.8 2.2

There’s plenty to note here, so let’s try to break down this list into some groups.

The Stars

Maurice Creek, Christian Watford, DJ Richardson, and Brandon Paul were the highest rated (by Rivals) incoming freshmen (sans Royce White) to enter the Big Ten. For the most part they have played like it as well. Judging by Creek’s early numbers, he was well on his way to Freshman of the Year while Richardson and Paul have been tremendous at Illinois. Watford isn’t quite as efficient as the other three but he is Indiana’s best remaining option and also manages to find his way to the line. At this point it’s tough to expect Paul, Watford, and Richardson not to land a spot on the final All-Freshman team.

The Northwestern Duo

drew-crawfordDrew Crawford

Drew Crawford and Alex Marcotullio have both played extremely well. Crawford is shooting 37.5% from long range and Marcotullio tops him at 42.6%. They don’t shy away from taking shots either, both have attempted over 55 three pointers this year. Both Northwestern freshmen have a very nice offensive rating around 120 and should be candidates for the all freshman team, after all they were the only two Big Ten freshmen to make John Gasaway’s mid-season top 25 list.

Turnover Prone Point Guards

Point guard is one of the toughest positions to play as a true freshman and several Big Ten freshmen are learning that fact. Darius Morris, Cully Payne, and Tim Frazier are struggling to hold onto the ball with turnover rates over 25%. Payne and Frazier have put up very solid assist totals while Morris falls more near the middle of the pack.

Glass Cleaners

Brennan Cougill, Derek Elston, and Eric May have proven to be some of the best rebounders among the freshman class. Their offensive game might be lagging behind but they can certainly crash the glass, ranking in the top 5 among freshmen in offensive and defensive rebounding.

Getting their Feet Wet

There are a couple recruits who are getting some playing time but just aren’t needed to take on a huge role Kelsey Barlow (Purdue) and Rodney Williams (Minnesota) are near the bottom of the spectrum in minutes and they haven’t really been called upon in their offenses. Jordan Hulls plays a few more minutes but he uses the fewest possessions and is not much more than a three point shooter (41.2%).

Conclusion

There aren’t many one-and-done, instant-impact, major contributors in this year’s class. The top of the league is littered with veteran players. The consensus best five teams in the league (Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan St., Minnesota, and Ohio State) place only three players on the entire list. The only potential top-half teams with players on the list appear to be Illinois, Northwestern, and just maybe Michigan.

Indiana’s freshman class was highly rated and they definitely look like they have the potential to be very good down the line. Maurice Creek was in a league of his own before his injury which makes it that much tougher to see him go down.  Illinois’ reliance on youth has led to some inconsistency in Champaign including losses to Utah, Bradley, and Georgia but it’s safe to say that Paul and Richardson will be very good players in this league.

Name Team %Min ORtg %Poss eFG% OR% DR% FTR Ast% TO% PPG RPG
Christian Watford IU 63.7 97.6 25.7 44.1 6.4 17.2 53.1 5 19.2 12.9 5.8
Brandon Paul ILL 56 105.8 24.3 47.6 6.9 5.1 31 13.8 15.2 10.4 2.4
Maurice Creek IU 58.7 125.3 23.9 64.1 6.6 9.2 29 17.3 13.4 16.4 3.8
Tim Frazier PSU 54.5 97.5 23 45.3 3.6 11.6 54.7 27.3 25.5 7.1 2.9
Eric May IOWA 67.3 98.1 22.7 49 7.9 16.2 42.9 14.3 21.6 9.5 5.3
Ryan Evans WI 39.6 92.8 22.2 46.1 8 19 34.4 7.3 20.4 5.2 3.4
Derek Elston IU 39 105.1 20.7 55 12.1 16.4 24.3 7.4 18.1 6.7 4.2
Cully Payne IOWA 80.2 89.9 19.8 48.5 0.8 9.6 28.7 24.7 29.7 8.2 2.6
Drew Crawford NW 59.4 120 19.4 62 7.8 11.5 21.9 15.9 12.9 10.2 4
Kelsey Barlow PU 41.3 85.9 19.3 43.8 7.7 10.1 31.3 20.9 29.9 3.6 2.4
Rodney Williams MINN 35.2 113.9 18.6 61.2 6.8 6.9 37.9 7.9 16.5 6.4 2.1
Alex Marcotullio NW 44.2 120.5 18.4 61.6 1 10.9 23.3 17.7 9.9 7.9 1.9
DJ Richardson ILL 71.2 110.5 18.3 52.2 2.3 7.7 21.9 6.2 10.9 11 2.8
Brennan Cougill IOWA 44.8 106.6 16.3 56 9.4 17.2 22.4 7.1 18.1 5 3.5
Darius Morris MI 56.2 86.6 15.9 48.1 1.9 8.1 30.2 18 30.9 4.7 1.9
Jordan Hulls IU 46.2 125.2 12.1 54.5 3.5 8.6 36.2 18.2 15 4.8 2.2
  • http://hoopsmarinara.blogspot.com phil

    Good post as usual. I think you’ve got Jeff Jordan, not DJ, in your first pic there …

  • maxwell’s demon

    Couple good posts this week between games. Wisco is gonna lose but continuing to look better than I expected at the start of the season.

  • http://fromthebarn.org From The Barn

    Only once Dylan…only once.

  • JB

    trey’s at the state game. he’s been to at least 3 of their games, none of ours. i do think it’s a bad sign

  • Tweeter

    well unless someone leaves early at state, which I dont see happenning, I dont think they have a scholarship for him. Its probably more likely a Duke or UCLA get him over us.

    Cornell with the ball down three to Kansas with twelve seconds left . . .

  • steve

    he isnt going to announce for a little while so we still have a chance with ziegler. UCLA is worse than we are and duke came into the recruiting late. we can still get him.

    i dont feel bad about the marquette loss at all now… close games with west virginia, villanova, and georgetown with them getting one win in those games. thats a good team.

    the only losses i had problems with were bc and utah where they looked like they didnt care at all. the indiana and alabama losses were bad as well but at least they looked like they wanted to be playing.

    what does michigan need to do to start getting back on the bubble?

  • Tweeter

    just win. Thats all they can do right now. Go out and try and win as many as you can. I still think this team is capable of going 11-7 in the Big Ten. If they do that, they will have a shot. Probably need to win one in the BTT as well, but I have a hard time seeing an 11-7 team from the Big Ten getting left out.

    Tomorrow’s game is big because its the next game, but also because its on the road against a beatable team and we need to break this win one, lose one pattern.

  • Giddings

    steve – if we can beat PSU, NW, IU, and UConn before heading to Madison, that would put us at 11-6 (5-1) with two solid wins (OSU and UConn) plus two decent wins (Creighton and NW). I think at that point we would unofficially be back “on the bubble”.

  • Giddings

    Tweeter, last year PSU went 10-8 in the Big Ten with a win at MSU and sweep of Illinois, won a game in the BTT, and had an 11-2 non-conference record (granted the schedule was weak, but they did win at Ga Tech)… and got left out of the Tourney. I would feel pretty good about 12-6 but 11-7 would be iffy even with a win over UConn.

  • Jeff

    PSUs problem last year was their non-conference schedule. They only played one NCAA team and one NIT team in their non-conference and lost to them both. Yet, if they had gone 11-7 they would have certainly made the tournament. 11-7 with a win over UConn would be a lock for us. The problem comes with actually doing it.

  • AG2

    If I recall correctly, no major conference team with 11 conference wins has ever missed the tournament. I would have felt much better about our chances if we had won vs. Indiana though.

    That being said, take a look at the cut line on ESPN’s bracket projection. If the last few teams fighting for bids are teams like Vanderbilt and St. John’s then I’m a little more optimistic.