Plus/Minus Updates: BC & Ark-PB

Dylan Burkhardt

Here is some more updated plus/minus data thanks to commenter gpsimms. We began tallying the data during the Old Spice Classic so seasonal totals don’t include Northern Michigan or Houston Baptist.

Updated Totals

Player Min Net Score/40 Allow/40 Net/40 Norm.
Gibson 52 13 66.92 56.92 10.00 1.80
Lucas-Perry 123 13 75.77 71.54 4.23 1.17
Douglass 119 11 66.55 62.86 3.70 1.01
Novak 158 8 69.11 67.09 2.03 0.64
Harris 186 7 69.68 68.17 1.51 0.51
Sims 149 -8 70.07 72.21 -2.15 -0.66
Morris 117 -12 65.98 70.09 -4.10 -1.11
Vogrich 34 -7 71.76 80.00 -8.24 -1.20
Cronin 2 -2 20.00 60.00 -40.00 -1.41
Akunne 2 -3 40.00 100.00 -60.00 -2.12
Wright 41 -24 56.59 80.00 -23.41 -3.75


  • Zack Gibson has posted the highest plus/minus total in less than half as many minutes as the six people behind him. Tough to say that he doesn’t warrant more playing time, as the team seems to go on a run whenever he is in the game.
  • Laval Lucas-Perry has been one of the only players to shoot the three pretty well this year so his offensive numbers make sense, however his defensive totals are a bit disappointing.
  • DeShawn Sims is the most disappointing on this list with is -8 total. He needs to continue to step his game up, hopefully yesterday was a big step in the right direction.
  • Stu Douglass appears to be one of the better defenders on the team. I think this started to become clear at the end of last year but he has posted the best defensive numbers of any guard on the roster.

Game-by-game stats for Boston College and Arkansas Pine Bluff along with notes after the jump.

Boston College Plus/Minus

Player Min Net Score/40 Allow/40 Net/40 Norm.
Gibson 17 10 56.47 32.94 23.53 2.43
Wright 8 2 50.00 40.00 10.00 0.71
Lucas-Perry 26 5 75.38 67.69 7.69 0.98
Vogrich 13 0 55.38 55.38 0.00 0.00
Akunne 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Novak 36 -5 56.67 62.22 -5.56 -0.83
Harris 35 -5 59.43 65.14 -5.71 -0.85
Douglass 27 -5 50.37 57.78 -7.41 -0.96
Sims 22 -12 60.00 81.82 -21.82 -2.56
Morris 14 -8 42.86 65.71 -22.86 -2.14
Cronin 2 -2 20.00 60.00 -40.00 -1.41


  • Zack Gibson graded out very well which is not surprising since he spearheaded Michigan’s come back with a couple threes late in the game.
  • Ant Wright was part of a run in the first half where Michigan started to tighten the game so his solid showing makes sense.
  • Laval Lucas-Perry continues to perform well in the plus/minus which is a bit surprising considering his play was pretty lackluster.
  • DeShawn Sims killed Michigan versus Boston College, his numbers are terrible and he simply didn’t impact the game. On defense especially he struggled.
  • Darius Morris has the worst plus/minus stats to date, this is obviously a bit of a concern but the Pine Bluff game definitely showed some signs of life.

Arkansas Pine Bluff

Player Min Net Score/40 Allow/40 Net/40 Norm.
Morris 34 23 70.59 43.53 27.06 3.94
Douglass 29 14 57.93 38.62 19.31 2.60
Gibson 12 5 56.67 40.00 16.67 1.44
Harris 38 15 68.42 52.63 15.79 2.43
Sims 31 12 74.84 59.35 15.48 2.16
Novak 31 10 64.52 51.61 12.90 1.80
Cronin 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wright 8 -1 45.00 50.00 -5.00 -0.35
Lucas-Perry 13 -5 76.92 92.31 -15.38 -1.39
Vogrich 3 -2 93.33 120.00 -26.67 -1.15
Akunne 1 -1 80.00 120.00 -40.00 -1.00


  • Darius Morris: Darius got so much playing time that his totals were bound to be impressive. I am most impressed with his defense, which appears to have been very good.
  • Stu Douglass: A brutal shooting game, but an impressive plus minus total, I think it’s safe to say that Stu is the most comfortable of the “point guards” running the offense. Now if he can make some three point shots…
  • Laval Lucas-Perry: Couldn’t stay on the court and didn’t play well after hitting two early three point shots.
  • DeShawn Sims: Peedi had a big day so it’s not surprising to see his strong offensive numbers, however the team appears to play better defense when Zack Gibson is on the floor.
  • Manny Harris: Playing 38/40 minutes is naturally going to lead to a plus/minus score that looks remarkably similar to the final score.

As always, there are certainly flaws to these numbers and I’d love to hear your thoughts and suggestions. Discuss away.

  • maxwell’s demon

    Good stuff. It seems the numbers continue to suggest that every minute of Wright’s pt should go to Gibson.

  • Giddings

    Love these stats, thanks and keep them coming. Naturally these are more indicative of the impact of role players like Gibson, Wright, etc rather than the Mannys who play the entire game, but it definitely hints at who should be playing more and who should be playing less.

  • Brad

    wow thats a heckuva game total for Darius…hope the improvement keeps coming!

  • Erik

    Yeah I think these numbers confirm what most of us thought: More minutes to Gibson, less to Wright. Sims needs to get his arse in gear, etc.

    It sort of disproves my theory on Douglass vs. Morris, but from the APB game, it looks like maybe Morris is just sporadic. Some nights he’s on and some nights he’s off.

    Regardless, I think the answers will come when the shots start falling. That’s one thing this data just doesn’t really measure. Guards can have a huge negative number if their shots are falling, but it’s not necessarily their fault if they are having a bad game, it’s mostly mental. I would suspect that when the shots start falling the guards numbers will go up even if they don’t change anything else.

  • hambone

    good stuff here. given our struggles rebounding the ball theres a similar stat that can be tracked.

    i was a hs asst coach for a few seasons, and one stat that we kept, that may be interesting for us here would be +/- for rebounds; even though rebounding is an individual stat, certain groups of players together may suggest be more rebounding-prone or averse and the stat is kept collectively, as in a def board gets credited to each of the players on the floor at the time…

    if i can get a video feed/detailed play-by-play (with substitutions) off mgoblue, ill try and undertake this and see if it’s of any utility or note.

  • dave

    if this team shoots 35% from 3 in the games they lost we would probably be undefeated still……..our defense has given up way to many easy buckets but if we make our 3s it doesnt matter, to a certain extent………fix the shooting, win games

  • ScottGoBlue

    I know that answer to my question already, but why isn’t Stu Douglass running the point. He has the best assist-to-turnover ratio on the team:

    Douglass (17/3 = 5.667)
    Wright (7/2 = 3.500)
    Novak (12/4 = 3.000)
    Harris (38/17 = 2.236)
    LLP (12/10 = 1.200)
    Morris (16/16 = 1.000)

    I know Morris will get better and be the man eventually. But it seems like Stu might be a better starter at this point.

  • I think that is a big part of *why* Stu is coming off the bench, so he can run the point when Darius goes out of the game. Probably wouldn’t help Darius’ confidence much to bench him at this point for Stu either.

  • JB

    Percentages aside…
    I just wanna see us come out, put our pride aside, and play with a lot of heart and attitude. I felt like we didn’t show any sense of urgency in the BC game until the very end. Utah is a very winnable game. it’s gonna be tough on the road, but we just need to go out and get it. a big win in utah could be a big stepping stone for us.

  • JB

    Dylan – any thoughts as to why jon horford isn’t getting more attention. I tend to falsely assume he’s not that good, but it was the exact same way with Al Horford. He finished fifth for mr. basketball behind neitzel, crawford, hairston, and marquise gray, but Al has had the best career by far. do you think jon is a potential steal?

  • JimC

    So this UT game is only on CBS College Sports station? Never heard of it…
    Does it come with DirectTV, or Comcast or ?
    Will my sports bar have it? That is the big question.

  • gpsimms

    Even against APB, DeShawn has one of the worst defensive numbers up there. The main thing that made me think about this was looking at Darius Morris’ numbers. He had such a rough weekend at the tournament defensively, but, watching the games, it did not look to me like Darius was really doing a lot to contribute to the defensive struggles. For the most part, he appeared to be the best man up defender of all our guards.

    An interesting thing that happened to Morris’ playing time is that he rarely plays when Peedi is not on the court. Over that weekend, Morris would start, but after the first shift he’d get replaced by Stu and not make it back in for many minutes.

    Most of Morris’ -‘s came in those opening minutes of the half. I really think all of the “we miss gritty-grit” CJ and Merritt at the guard is overblown. We do miss there leadership, but I think DeShawn’s slow start is the biggest thing hurting the team. He’ll get it together, and then the team will look like last year.

  • maxwell’s demon

    I think Morris’ athleticism makes him appear to be a better defender than he is. In man to man, he does seem to get good pressure on the ball handler but that doesn’t mean his positioning, rotations, and help defense are where they need to be.

  • ToBlav

    DirecTV CBSC = 613. That’s all I got.

  • JimC

    Thanks ToBlav.
    I’m going to be scared to watch this team, if they melt down again.
    On the other hand, if they don’t screw it up, we might be thinking the tourney goal is alive again.

  • Derek

    Is it possible to break down points allowed into points allowed in the paint and outside the paint and 3’s? I ask because it seems that our interior defense has been lacking and with a team playing zone a lot it’s hard to point the finger at one player, but maybe data would clear it up…

  • gpsimms

    Derek, I tried charting something like that in the BC game, but it got pretty overwhelming. What I can tell you, is in the first 10 possessions of the BC game, Michigan ran the 1-3-1 three times. It gave up 7 points in those three sets, and two of the three were “easy” close-in looks.

    Now, I can’t say they were on DeShawn, or LLP running the baseline, or who…but I am pretty sure the 1-3-1 is not failing because of the guy up top. He has been more disruptive and pressuring than any guard we had last year.

    As for rotating in man, I can’t speak to that.

    On a side note, Brian at mgoblog wrote about how the 131 needs to get scrapped, it’s not working, etc. In that 10 possession stretch where the 1-3-1 allowed 7 pts in 3 possessions, man allowed 12 points in the other 7 possessions. It would be more accurate to say “Michigan has been playing terrible defense” than “the zone is failing.” IMO.

    Of course I’m not saying the 1-3-1 is the solution. It’s not. I’m just saying that if we’re going to be good, we shouldn’t scrap it. If we’re going to be good we need the 1-3-1 to improve, a lot; and if we’re going to be good we need our man defense to improve, a lot.

    For Utah, the breakdown will be +/- only, I won’t have anything else to add, because I don’t think I’ll be able to watch the game.

  • maxwell’s demon

    I definitely agree that scrapping the 1-3-1 is not the issue. Cleary it gave a lot of teams headaches last year, we just need better execution. And while Brian knows about 79451x more than me about football I don’t think bball analysis is his strong suit (nor does he claim it to be).

  • Derek

    @gpsimms that would be some intense analysis to keep track of defense each possession as well as who is on the floor. Something maybe even a little easier is if we took a look at the data for points in the paint for each player on the floor. This might tell us who is better at keeping them from getting easy looks by playing D that takes away looks inside, regardless of what is being played….now that I think about it, maybe eFG% would do this…

  • Beast1530

    Part of the reason why Gibson is not getting much PT is he has a tendency to pick up cheap fouls and there’s no depth at the 5. Having Gibson and Sims in foul trouble would be bad for Michigan.

  • Giddings

    To everyone wondering about how to watch the game Wednesday…

    I have Comcast in Ann Arbor, and with my “Sports Tier” package I’ve been getting CBS College Sports for a year now (ch 734).

    Even better, Comcast just added “CBS College Sports HD” to their lineup over the weekend. It’s ch 255 for me now, right before BTN. I got the impression that this HD channel was not only for the “Sports Tier” customers, but for everyone with Comcast HD. So I would recommend checking all your Comcast channels to see if you get it. (also check your mail, they sent me a postcard the other day with a list of new channels they were adding including this one)

  • Giddings

    Eh, never mind, I think the CBS CS HD is only for people with the Sports Package and HD.

    Still, I’d definitely recommend the Sport Package to those who don’t have it – I get lots of FSNs, ESPNU, CBS College Sports, etc.

  • gpsimms

    What I am going to try to do for future games is log # of possessions each guy plays instead of minutes. Then, for example, instead of having “Manny gave up 56 points in 38.00 minutes of pt” we can have “Manny gave up 56 points in 62 possessions.”

    Then we can rate each guy’s defensive efficiency, which in turn gives us a pretty good idea how many easy looks they give up.

  • gpsimms

    but, again, I probably won’t do this for Utah, because if I see this game it will be at a bar. I don’t really want to try to chart a game at the bar. I have few enough friends as it is.

  • JimC

    Giddings (& ToBlav) i appreciate the info.

    I’m going to note the channels, and go to the sports bar tomorrow and ask Nicki, or one of the other hot waitresses, to put this on the screen.

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