Six Questions: 2009-2010

Dylan Burkhardt
on

As we near the regular season opener, here are six questions that appear to be relevant to Michigan’s performance this year. I’d love to hear some thoughts and answers in the comments as well as other questions you may have.

vogirch darius_morris

Are the freshmen guards the real deal?

Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, and Laval Lucas-Perry played crucial roles in Michigan’s 2008-2009 campaign. Without contributions from the freshmen, Michigan almost certainly would have been sitting at home in March.

This year there are four incoming freshmen: Darius Morris, Matt Vogrich, Jordan Morgan, and Blake McLimans. At this point, it’s hard to imagine Morgan, who is recovering from a knee injury, or McLimans being a significant contributor. On the other hand, the opportunity is there for Morris and Vogrich.

Morris appears destined to start at the point guard position (more below) while Vogrich has one of the sweetest strokes on the team. They aren’t without their issues. I address Morris’ concerns more below but the biggest question for Vogrich is whether he can get by athletically at this level. He can definitely shoot it but if his defense and athleticism are sub-par that’s going to keep him off the court.


What can Michigan get out of the point guard position?

Manny Harris has a point guard-esque assist rate and John Beilein doesn’t rely on a true point guard in his two guard offense but Michigan needs more production out of the point guard position than last year.

CJ Lee, Dave Merritt, and Kelvin Grady manned the point guard position last year. Here are their numbers in conference play:

Player MPG PPG eFG% ORtg Usage APG Ast Rate
Lee 20.33 2.83 47.7 112.3 10.5% 2.11 21.4
Grady 17.23 3.94 51.8 104.1 15.6% 1.882 23.7
Merritt 10.44 1.28 54.7 92.3 10.1 .833 16.5

Obviously there is not a lot of production from these three. They were the three most invisible players in the Michigan offense in terms of the number of possessions that they used. They shot a high percentage, made the easy assists, but they didn’t have a huge influence on the game.

Darius Morris appears to be the starter at the point from day 1. Physically he is a better player than last year’s point guards. The question is how fast can he pick up the offense and adjust to the pace of division 1 basketball.

sims-msu

Will DeShawn Sims stay inside or float to the perimeter?

DeShawn Sims made a dramatic improvement between his sophomore and junior seasons. He went from an inefficient three point shooter to an inside-outside threat that had a legitimate case to make first team all conference.

A man much smarter than me, John Gasaway in the CBP Preview, pointed out the dramatic improvement that DeShawn Sims made in his 2 point field goal percentage last year. Sims hit 55% of his two point shots last year while  posting the highest shot percentage (percentage of his teams shots while he was on the floor) in the conference (30.7%).

Sims shot 32% from three point range last year and it seems unlikely that he will improve much upon that number. He did take significantly fewer three pointer attempts last year. There has been lots of talk about Sims playing more on the perimeter this year, but I’m really not sure that is something that will help Michigan.

Sims needs to get his touches inside on the block as well as from around 15 feet where he can hit the jumper consistently. I have no problem with Sims taking a few threes, but last year’s DeShawn Sims was much more productive than the perimeter Sims the year before.

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Can Michigan continue to be a solid defensive rebounding team?

Michigan was actually a very good defensive rebounding team throughout conference play. Their 71% defensive rebounding percentage ranked them third in the conference, only behind Michigan State and Wisconsin. They even rebounded Michigan State to a draw in their lone meeting.

Manny Harris rebounds his position extremely well with a 19.2% defensive rebounding percentage and DeShawn Sims is solid on the glass. They will have to keep this herculean effort up in order to keep Michigan’s rebounding numbers respectable.

In terms of help from other positions, most of the candidates have a blaring negative. Zack Novak is a good rebounder but he’s obviously at a disadvantage size-wise. Zack Gibson has never been much of a rebounder, focusing more on trying to block shots. Darius Morris has good size for the point guard and could provide a boost, however he’s still a point guard that will spend his time on the perimeter.

Offensive rebounds are not very important in this system, and defensive rebounds can be overcome, but Harris and Sims’ rebounding numbers will be critical.

Will we see more 1-3-1 zone?

The zone has obviously been a staple of John Beilein’s teams for years however over the last two seasons we have only seen it in limited doses. Last year Michigan even went to a 2-3 zone down the stretch to shore up their defense.

The 1-3-1 zone is designed to force turnovers at the expense of giving up some easy looks at the basket. When the zone isn’t creating turnovers, it is rendered worthless because it is almost assuredly going to still give up easy looks.

Here is a breakdown on how many turnovers Beilein’s teams forced over the passed six seasons.

John Beilein Defense Turnover % 04-09:
04 05 06 07 08 09
WVU WVU WVU WVU U-M U-M
21.8% 22.9% 24.5% 23.8% 20.5% 20.8%

Every single John Beilein West Virginia team forced more turnovers than either of his teams at Michigan. Michigan’s ability to force turnovers has been mediocre at best but perhaps this is the year where the 1-3-1 zone really clicks. One obvious means of improvement is Darius Morri
s’ length at the top of the 1-3-1 zone which should definitely help Michigan force more turnovers.

Can Michigan continue to improve behind the arc, not only on offense but defense as well?

It all comes back to the three point shot. Michigan is going to take a ton of three point shots and they are going to have to make them. I’ve already posted some thoughts about three point shooting on the offensive side of the ball but what about defense?

Last year Michigan not only shot the ball better than the year before, they defended the three point line very well. After allowing opponents to shoot 38.1% from three point range in Beilein Year 1, opponents only shot 31.4% (35th nationally) in year 2.

With Michigan’s lack of size down low they are going to struggle defending the two point shot, their 49.9% last year ranked 246th in division 1. However, it’s possible to make up for this by defending the three point shot. I think this is one of the most critical often overlooked statistics.

  • Kenny

    I am curious if in general Big Ten teams hold onto the balls better than Big East teams.

  • Ken in Vegas

    The questions that I’m intriqued by concern chemistry and intensity. Some of the intangibles, if you will. Our chemistry last year was benefited greatly by excellent leadership and role players. CJ Lee and David Meritt were the vocal leaders and the guys in every motivational speach clip. They were probably a calming influence and a gel that held everybody together. They also brought grit, intensity, and hustle. There was a certain swagger that we had and a lot of that was the lock down defense and hustle for loose balls that CJ Lee brought. I don’t want to lose that chemistry and intensity. That being said, having a guy like Zach Novak bloodying himself up every night should be contagious. It sounds like he is well respected in the locker room as well, so I look to him to ensure that we don’t skip a beat in these areas.

  • Eddie

    The team usually falls back into the 1-3-1 after a make, so when the shots don’t fall, man defense is the call. That said, you can probably see a correlation between Coach B’s WVU teams’ FG% and the % of forced turnovers in comparison to his UM teams. As UM shoots better, you’ll see more 1-3-1, and more turnovers. Of course length up top or on the baseline with Morris will help the 1-3-1’s effectiveness, but hitting more shots will ultimately key the success of Coach B’s defensive schemes.

  • maxwell’s demon

    i cannot get over how ridiculous osu’s shorts are

  • Dave

    read somewhere that the team chemistry is better than it has ever been…….that was according to deshawn maybe, it was a player………this isnt necessarily a question but i would like to see the use of many more back door cuts which is what beilein’s system supposedly does a good portion of, but hasnt really all that much at michigan so far

  • JayRich

    Ken: I read an article today (I think on MLIVE.com) in which Sims says that the team chemistry is better than it has ever been. For what it’s worth

  • http://www.viewfromvegas.com/ ohmigods

    Asked why he has started the season so well,
    Evan Turner in the post game interview said
    “the games are going slower”

    Isn’t Beilein trying to teach this also?
    I think that was a goal of his when he was hired,
    if i remember right.

  • gordie bell

    I thought Vogrich was rated higher than Douglas and Novak because he was more athletic.

    My biggest concerns are our lack of size and starting a freshman PG with no other true PG to be found on the roster.

    Loy Vaught, Maurice Taylor, DeShawn Sims. Who are Michigan PF’s capable of consistently hitting 10-15 footers?

    Which brings to a beef of Steve Fisher, a little late I suppose. If Fisher had let Traylor be the go to guy in the low post and let Taylor play on the perimeter facing the basket, M would have been much better off.

  • Tyler

    We know deshawn will go towards the perimeter a lot since he loves shooting the 3 (like the whole team) but to have a great season I want to see him post up and do work in the paint.

  • Matt

    Dave… the offense is set up based on how the opponent plays us. If they play up the line like a Duke or Purdue, you’ll see backdoor cuts. It’s not like Beilein calls a set that they look specifically for the cut.

  • Old Style

    I’m thinking the same thing Gordie is. I’m pretty sure I read on this site last year that Vogrich was a great shooter and also a very good athlete. What changed?

  • http://www.umhoops.com Dylan

    Vogrich is a solid athlete but it’s definitely not one of the stronger parts of his game. Guarding D1 guards and wings is a lot tougher than playing defense in high school. I am sure he will continue to improve on defense, it’s just something to keep an eye on.

  • GregGoBlue

    If you watched the scrimmage against Wayne State, it is clear that though Vogrich has a great stroke (though he didn’t score in this game, i think), his defense has a ways to go. Morris is the better athlete of the two.

    I wouldn’t fret about DMo, a freshman, at the starting PG. If you’ll recall, we played three freshmen heavily last year who didn’t look much like freshmen. DMo plays good defense, he’s got a great handle, and can create well. He brings an athleticism to our PG position that is a great asset. He may now be as familiar with the offense as LLP or Stu, but they will all see minutes at the 1. I really like the depth and options we have at PG, which (I agree with Dylan) is the most intriguing position for Meech BBall this year.

  • Dave

    darius is a top 100 level kid for a reason