Comments on: Three Point Musings

By: old fan

old fan — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 05:11:18 +0000

My thought was that it would be better for Beilein if the three point mark was moved back. When an average forward from any team can move back to hit the trey, this devalues this as a mechanism to separate yourself from the competition. If you need to have to value and work at getting the three point shot in order to use it effectively, this enhances Michigan’s strengths.

Ideally a lower percentage , but still a percentage that makes this a definitive weapon, with a wider spread between teams would allow Michigan to have a comparative advantage over other teams. Doesn’t look like the numbers helped validate my assumption, at least not yet. We don’t have the shooters yet to make this hypothesis a reality.

By: Dylan

Dylan — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 04:54:17 +0000

Also, you guys are right, the graph should be flipped. My bad.

**Should be better now.

By: ToBlav

ToBlav — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 02:12:20 +0000

The stats and graphs may be interesting but if team A’s stats are built mostly around playing traditional style teams, which makes sense because most teams playing that way is why it is traditional, then those stats will not give a valid picture of their play vs. team B a non-traditional team. If team B’s stats are built around playing teams who’s stat vs. them are not valid for that team the conclusions are going to be skewered. Valid independant varibles are hard to come by when teams have hot and cold and up and down games. Comparing teams with like numbers and percentages of three taken and made is not valid because the outcome of the misses varies with the rebounding styles and defensive reaction of the shooting team. In summation, stats and charts can only be indactors and should not be overly relied on in logical thinking.

By: 90 M Varsity

90 M Varsity — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 00:50:45 +0000

This is what people need to look at when they get all giddy about these perim players. I think JB and his situation can all work out. I am just surprised that people don’t look deeper than the surface.

By: Ken in Vegas

Ken in Vegas — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 23:22:48 +0000

I’ll just stick to holding up my foam finger and yelling things.

By: Ken in Vegas

Ken in Vegas — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 23:20:59 +0000

I think if we’re going to depend on independent variables then we need the control group to be inverted on the y-axis with the statistical mean…ok I have no idea what I’m talking about.

By: Dylan

Dylan — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 21:43:54 +0000

Yes… Three point point percentage is good too and the numbers are very similar. Check out Michigan’s Kenpom profile for some more #s. http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Michigan

I love the feedback and criticism too guys, I am by no means a full fledged statistician and love to hear your ideas.

By: Jivas

Jivas — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 21:41:31 +0000

Hmm…issue with the formatting on my last comment. The metric I’m suggesting in point (1) above is:

Total points on 3-point shots / Total points

——-

Pardon the inconvenience.

By: Jivas

Jivas — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 21:39:54 +0000

Nice job on the article – definitely an interesting thing to think about during the off-season.

Couple of technical points:

(1) If we’re looking for a metric that shows reliance on the three-point shot, I’d recommend divided by . This factors in team’s reliance on free throws, and in my opinion is a better metric to explain what you’re looking for. (Also, as mentioned by UMDC above, looking at prior years is key – a control group is needed).

(2) Minor point – I recommend 3PA/FGA on the x-axis and winning percentage on the y-axis, to properly illustrate what you’re indicating to be (potentially) the dependent variable and the independent variable. More than anything, the graph would be more intuitive that way.

But again – great work! Thanks for the quality offseason read.

By: Dylan

Dylan — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 20:42:00 +0000

The bottom line is that teams that shot a lot of three pointers didn’t do well in the NCAA tourney. I kind of went away from the three point line move as the post goes on and more or less looked at how well three point shooting teams do in general.