My mind went blank when I saw Michigan’s name on the board. After I finally settled down, I had to turn to my friend and ask who and where we were playing. Then once it set in that we were playing Clemson I realized that I really didn’t know much about them. So I threw together an early look at Clemson, a preview to the real preview, just to give everyone a sense of what they are about and what to expect. This includes a quick look at personnel, playing style, and coaching as well as some notes on Clemson’s program and a video interview with Oliver Purnell.
Personnel
Clemson’s starting five accounts for 75% of their scoring and they don’t appear to be very deep. The “big three” are KC Rivers, Trevor Booker, and Terrence Oglesby. Rivers is a talented 6-foot-5 wing-guard who averages 14.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg, and 1.6 apg. Booker is a 6-foot-7 240 pound specimen down low; he averages nearly a double double with 15.3 ppg and 9.7 rpg. Oglesby is a former Michigan recruit and he is a stone cold shooter, the 6-foot-2 guard averages 13.5 ppg and shoots 39.6% from three point range. Point guard Demontez Stitt and 6-foot-9 center Raymond Sykes round out the starting lineup.
The biggest worry for me is Trevor Booker. Booker is only 6-foot-7 so it isn’t like we are playing Ohio State or Illinois but he plays the four which means that he will be a tough guard — if you put Sims on him you leave Novak guarding someone 6-foot-9 but he is an awful match up for Zack. Zone is appealing against an athletic team like Clemson but the worry is that Oglesby could get hot from the outside.
Style
This is definitely a battle of contrasting styles. Clemson plays uptempo, averaging 69.1 possessions per game, compared to Michigan’s deliberate pace of 64.1 possessions per game. Despite their slow pace for the season Michigan is 6-0 in 70+ possession games and 8-2 in 65+ possession games. Clemson plays better at a slower pace despite their higher average. They are 8-7 when games run over 70 possessions compared to 15-1 when they are under 70.
Clemson lives on the full court press and they do a very good job. Clemson forces their opponents into turnovers, only two teams have posted turnover rates under 20% against the Tigers: UNC and Virignia Tech. Michigan has done a very good job holding onto the ball this year but this will be a big test. I’m sure we will hear about Kelvin Grady all week but I really don’t see him playing major minutes. The bottom line is that if Michigan wants to win this game they better hold onto the ball.
34.7% of Clemson’s field goal attempts are from long range and they only have assists on 52.1% of their field goals. This is a stark difference from Michigan who lives by the three (47% of FGA are 3PA; 6th nationally) and posts assists on 67.1% of their field goals (3rd nationally).
Beilein vs. Purnell
This is a match-up between a pair of program builders. John Beilein is one of seven coaches who has taken four teams (Canisius, Richmond, West Virginia, and Michigan) to the NCAA tournament while Oliver Purnell has taken three (Old Dominion, Dayton, and Clemson). Purnell turned Clemson into a perennial contender in the ACC to back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances and three straight seasons with twenty or more wins.
The difference between Beilein and Purnell is their success in the NCAA tournament. Pete Tiernan of Bracket Science uses a measure called PASE to determine how successful a coach is in the NCAA tournament. PASE is defined as “performance against seed expectations” and it is calculated by comparing a coach’s actual number of wins to the number he should’ve notched based on his seed position for each appearance. Beilein (6-4 all time) ranks first on Bracket Science’s list of top tourney coaches while Purnell (0-4) ranks last.
The two also met in the 2007 NIT Championship game, a 78-73 West Virginia victory. There were many of the same faces in that game including KC Rivers, Trevor Booker, and Raymond Sykes (barely). That game was dominated by Frank Young who hit six three pointers en route to 24 points. West Virginia as a team made 12 three pointers and shot an effective field goal percentage of 61.4%. Rivers had 18 points but only hit 3 of 11 three point attempts and Booker posted a solid 13 points, eight rebounds, and four blocks.
What does this mean for Thursday’s game? Probably very little besides the fact that Beilein and Purnell are both a little familiar with each other.
Late Season Collapses
Clemson has become known for their hot starts and disappointing finishes. Here are their results over the last four years (not including NCAA or NIT post-season).
| Year | Start | Finish | Final |
| 2009 | 20-3 | 3-5 | 23-8 |
| 2008 | 12-1 | 12-8 | 24-9 |
| 2007 | 17-0 | 4-10 | 21-10 |
| 2006 | 11-0 | 7-12 | 18-12 |
Clemson will no doubt be out to prove this theory wrong but this year is eerily reminiscent of the past. Clemson has lost four of their last five games including a very disappointing loss at the ACC Tournament to Georgia Tech.
Clemson is clearly aware of the problem as they have held numerous team meetings that were filled with “constructive criticism” according to Terrence Oglesby. According to Oliver Purnell, the problems start on defense:
“We’re not playing at the level we need to play at,†he said. “You have to admit that, and step up and make plays on defense. If you don’t have the mindset to play good, hard defense (in the tournament), you’re going to go home.â€
Michigan is dealing with the NCAA Tournament for the first time and while it’s nearly impossible to guess how they react to the situation I think we could see a very loose team. The pressure of getting to the tournament is off of their shoulders and they can just play.
Purnell on Michigan
Hat tip to a Clemson hoops blog, the OP. Here is a video of Oliver Purnell talking about Michigan, seeding, and what’s going on with Clemson.
Common Opponents
Comparing two teams by looking at how they performed against common opponents is clearly a flawed technique but in this case it at least is a bit interesting
Clemson and Michigan share four common opponents: Duke, Maryland, Illinois and Savannah State. The high point of both team’s seasons were their statement wins over Duke. Both the games were at home but Clemson demolished Duke to the tune of a 27 point victory. It is worth mentioning that Clemson’s win was right in the middle of the worst period of Duke’s season when they lost 4 of 6 games.
Clemson beat up on the same Savannah State just four days before they gave Michigan fits in the game we all wish that we could forget. Clemson also destroyed Maryland at home in a dominant offensive performance where they scored 1.38 points per possession and shot the lights out with an eFG% of 67.2%. Clemson also knocked off Illinois in Champaign in a game where Illinois inexplicably failed to get off a shot in the midst of a two point game as time expired.
Someone wanted a link to watch the live feed from AA and Beilein’s pre-selection speech
http://www.mgoblue.com/basketb.....id=170238#
click on live video and after it loads, use the scroll up/down bar to scroll down to the live recording of the selection show from Crisler. I watched it live and the speech was in there. I haven’t went back and watched it a 2nd time, though in it’s entirety. Hopefully, everything is in there.
I live in ACC country, so I have seen them on the tube a lot. Clemson didn’t play at Maryland, so I haven’t seen them live. They are huge. The listed heights may not seem so imposing, but all the front court players have broad shoulders and jump well. Oglesby has deep range, even beyond the NBA line. He can get some amazing hot streaks going.
One clear advantage Clemson have over Michigan is their post-season tournament experience. Hope our boys will not be too nervous or over-excited.
There is no way Novak will be guarding Booker. He’ll get eaten alive. I would be very surprised to see UM in much man-to-man D, in fact. I think they’ll just switch up the zones a fair bit. That way they can double down on Booker, and lay off the other big a bit as he is pretty weak on offense from what I’ve heard.
He better not..I REPEAT BETTER not get bullheaded and leave Novak in at the 4 all game. Especially if he refuses to attack the basket on the offensive end. Lets be smart here, If you havent seen Booker then youtube him..we have to play our game but not let Booker turn into Dwight Howard
ypsituckyboy, the problem is if Oglesby get hot from 3 point shooting, Michigan may have to get rid of 1-3-1 zone. K.C. Rivers isn’t that bad of a shooter either. Just hope that Clemson is cold from the outside and Michigan have a chance.
Clemson is adept to forcing turnovers from full court press. If Lee, Merritt and Stu can’t handle the pressure and they turn the ball over, JB will be forced to go with Grady whether he likes it or not because Grady is the only one on the roster who can handle the full court press. The only way that Grady will not see time on the floor is all three guards can take care of the ball against the full court press.
3 keys to the games for Michigan:
1. Take care of the ball
2. Limit Oglesby from getting hot so Michigan can concentrate on doubling Booker down low
3. Shoot the ball well
That PASE ranking site is very interesting. Beilein’s number 1, but look at who is #2: Steve Fisher.
I like the matchup from the standpoint that if Clemson is not shooting well they simply aren’t a very good team. I understand the same rings true for Michigan but if you look at the schedule, Michigan has more neutral court experience. Granted we had a good number of fans at the Garden and I hope we do in KC but neither side has an advantage there obviously.
I took a glance at a couple of OU message boards and they are much more wary of Clemson than us. Granted I don’t blame them but we have seen that if the shots are falling we can play with anyone. I don’t want to look too far ahead but if we can limit everyone not named Blake Griffin, the second round matchup could be very interesting down the stretch.
I just read SI.com’s preview of the South Region and they have Michigan as the sleeper pick to beat Clemson and OU.
As far as Trevor Booker is concerned, you could compare him to Jamelle Cornley, they’re relatively similar in size.
I like the Cornley comparison because of how U-M handled Cornley the second time around (although I believe Butler is a bit taller and much more athletic). In that game they basically let Cornley get his (25 points and 6 boards) but made every effort in the world to stop Pringle and Battle (6 of 29)
dylan are you working on a recruiting update, curious to see how j morgan did against detroit pershing….it was a 3 point loss but supposedly he played well…..also wondering if there are any comments from the recruits or potential recruits about michigans tourney appearance
University of Virginia coach is out after 4 seasons. I know Beilein interviewed for that job and they turned him down over the buyout at WV…bet they are kicking themselves now!!!
makes for an interesting strategic dilemma for both teams. Clemson prefers the quicker tempo, yet performs better in a slower game. Michigan tends to play games with fewer possessions, yet perform better with a quicker pace. Intuition tells me Michigan should perhaps try to slow the game a down a bit, but the numbers say otherwise. How should Michigan approach it?
From what I’ve seen, Michigan benefits from up-tempo games that are called tighter than your average Big Ten game. This team just looks like they play looser when they don’t have to worry about whether they’ll get a foul call when they’re tackled by Joe Krabbenhoft.
I think zone might be the best method. It’s pretty easy to shift a zone toward a strong shooter (Oglesby), although Rivers is another 40% shooter which might make things difficult. I seem to vaguely remember Oglesby from last year as being they guy everybody in the ACC hated. I don’t know exactly why, but I’m pretty sure he got an earfull everywhere he went.
I have been having that exact sentiment for this entire bubble period. Michigan can be a dangerous team once they get out of the Big Ten and have to “wonder” if a foul will be called “when they’re tackled by Joe Krabbenhoft”. Michigan gets a serious advantage to the offensive flow/efficiency when fouls are called on Manny et al. driving the lane. If this holds true in the tournament and they can draw fouls, this should open up the arc. Thus, a tight game benefits Michigan greatly and will allow them to truly run their offense effectively.
I will be in KC. From the people I have talked to, Session II in KC is a hot ticket. Looks to be rowdy, hopefully with more Blue than Orange or Crimson.
Go Blue!
Just got confirmation that I too will be in Kansas City. Should be fun.
I think the defensive effort and rebounding is especially important in this one. The more made baskets for them, the more chances to set up the press.
Of course you’ll be in KC Dylan. That’s your JOB!
Enjoy it and have a drink in toast of the team on our behalf!
Here is my take on Clemson from ACC country. First off, I have seen Clemson play 5 or 6 times this season, including in person just a week ago.
Style of Play: The biggest thing about Clemson is that they full-court press the entire game. They love to play a fast, helter-skelter type of game. They have struggled recently, and can get impatient in a slower paced game. Overall, they are an athletic, open-court team which can struggle a bit in the half-court.
Player rundown:
Starters-
PG- Demontez Stitt is a good athlete. Quick, strong, and will make acrobatic layups. He really keys their press. Not a great shooter and can be a little careless with the ball.
SG- Terrence Oglesby would shoot it from the parking lot if you let him. Very deep range and a good, albeit streaky, shooter. However, he doesn’t provide much else and is a bit turnover prone as well (1:1 assist to turnover ratio).
SF- K.C. Rivers is the leader of the team. He’s a lefty and is actually a better outside shooter (by %) than Oglesby. Very tough matchup because he is strong enough to post up as well.
PF- Trevor Booker is probably their best player. Is only 6’7″, but is very strong. Good athlete and post-up player. Also is a surprisingly good shot-blocker (little over 2 per game). Could be a great match-up with Sims (though Sykes may guard Sims).
C- Raymond Sykes is a long, skinny guy with dreads. He runs well and his game is offensive rebounds and put-backs. Not much of a low post threat.
The bench is solid and they go about 9 deep.
Matchups:
Clemson is unique in that they are great in transition and they have good outside shooters. Therefore, the best way to play them that I have seen is just tough, straight up man-to-man. The problem then is who does Novak guard? He would have to guard Sykes and do his best to box out. The 1-3-1 could work since Clemson is turnover prone, but if Rivers and/or Oglesby gets hot, we could be in trouble. The most interesting thing to me is not only how we handle the press (in terms of not turning it over) but how we play once we have brought the ball up. Clemson gives up many 3 on 2′s and the temptation will be to take quick shots because they will be open. However, I think we will need to slow the ball down and run our spread the floor offense. We should be able to get good looks if we are patient enough. We must knock down the shots, but they will be there. The pace of this game will tell the story in my opinion. Overall, it will be interesting because we have not played anyone like Clemson all year. However, they haven’t played anyone like us all year either. It will come down to three things: How we handle the press, what team’s style wins out, and which team makes shots. The last thing is huge. Both teams have dangerous shooters who I feel will get plenty of open looks, it will just depend on which shots go in.
I’ll be camped out at bdubs in ann arbor all day.
Very nice breakdown NCBlue.
I think if JB approaches the weekend as if they are going to play differing zones the entire weekend, it might help prep the team for BOTH games.
I think Krabbenhoft led the league in tackles this season.
I don’t think the coverage maps have been released yet although we get the pairing of Tim Brando and Mike Gminski to call the games in KC.
Also the second round game is scheduled to start at 5:50 or 30 minutes after the first game.
http://awfulannouncing.blogspo.....ncing.html
haha
I’m going to be laying down some wagers during the first round. I’ll be betting on Michigan by default, but are there any other games you would bet the farm on? I like OSU over Siena and Texas over Minnesota so far. What are your thoughts on Wisconsin and Florida State? Leaning towards Wisconsin and Ray Lewis, aka Krabbenhoft.
OMG I am so pumped. Just told my boss I wouldn’t be auditing sh*t on Thursday and reserved a table at the Rio.
What do you think about the Penn State game? Oh wait, they don’t have a game! Have they released the NIT pairings yet? Ohhhhh, I totally just slammed a team for only making the NIT. I had forgotten what that felt like.
Deshawn looks like he came in with the ‘Make a Wish Foundation’ in that picture.
Great preview, NC Blue. This Oglesby fellow sounds intriguing. If he’s really willing to shoot from the parking lot I think Michigan should go ahead and let him do that.
IIRC we also recruited Oglesby back in the dying days of the Tommy Amaker era.
Yup — http://rivalshoops.rivals.com/.....CID=559218
Chose Clemson over Michigan.
I attended Clemson’s game last sunday at Wake. It’s tough to get a great feel for the way Michigan will handle them just from that game because Wake also thrives and is more than willing to play fast. Wake had a ridiculous amount of fairly easy shots from just breaking the press and making one pass. Going back to my previous post, I really believe Michigan will have to turn down pretty good looks just to force their desired tempo, specifically off of the press (it’s different off of a forced turnover, which we would want to run). I’m telling you, the guy that impressed me the most was Rivers. He can really shoot it and has a mid-range game as well. Clemson is a dangerous team, but, they have really struggled recently. Beilein should have plenty of tape to watch to see what lesser teams (not saying we are lesser, just saying that Clemson lost several games they should have won) like Virginia and Gtech did to be successful.
Taking my Michigan Hoodie to the cleaners tomorrow to get it NICE for the Sprint Center on Thursday…
Great to hear so many are going. Have fun everyone!!! And of course, Go Blue!!
PS-I’ve watched that “Reaction from Michigan’s selection as at at-large etc.” video on MGoBlue at least 20 times. It’s so much fun watching the reaction after they were announced.
Also, I overlooked this a bit… It is actually the fifth time in 8 years that Beilein and Purnell have coached against each other. The others came when they were at Richmond and Dayton respectively.
http://www.independentmail.com.....e-another/
Got word today from the ticket people that the Michigan allotment is sold out, so no suprises there.
However, as backups, I called Clemson and Morgan St. Both are going to have public sales of their remaining tickets, since their allotments are not sold out. I’d recommend anyone without tickets to call up their ticket offices tomorrow.
I want the Sprint Center to be Crisler West. If you can make it, get on a plane/drive and lets make it loud.
btw…any word on the team hotel?
That ASE website has Purnill as the worst coach, FWIW.
I must be the only one looking at the food aspect of the regions that Michigan will have to go through.
First KC……….Good ribs
then Memphis for Bar B Que………dang makes me want to go
to both
anyone have any information on the TV schedule? Will the country get the Michigan game or are they all regional games. I’m in Cleveland, so I’m hoping I’ll get M. Ohio State, and Cleveland State play on friday, but Akron plays Thurs.
greg doyle has Michigan to the ELITE 8!
http://splnexperts.mayhem.cbss.....ket/1/5/1/
If you are in cleveland, you will be locked out of the M game, since Akron plays in that slot. Even if it is a blowout, since its a local game, CBS will not change to another game. You are gonna need Directv Mega March Madness or use MMOD
for those of us in non-wolverine country, without satellite, you can always stream any game through cbs
Ken in Vegas, there’s a lot of national media picking WKU to beat IL, because Chester Frazier’s doubtful and they play in the Big 10, etc.
I don’t believe that for a second. IL handled M no problem. They played well out of conference. Crushed MO. Only OOC loss was to…Clemson!
good luck!
We are playing in two days!! Actually, if you don’t count today and Thursday, we are playing in one day!!! If you don’t count sleeping, showers, and eating, it’s like…..a 1/2 day!!!!! Can’t wait to be at the Sprint Center!!!
http://www.kansascity.com/coll.....90307.html
Practice Schedule at Sprint Center
Yeah but this 1/2 day feels like about 45 days.
Can’t wait for Thur to get here!
True…
Ken in Vegas, Florida State will destroy Wisconsin. It won’t be close. I’ve been tempted to take WKU over Illinois just because every year some 12′s beat the 5′s and that one seems to most obvious and since everyone hates the B10, that would be the best fodder for them. So taking Murphy’s law into account… WKU over Il. We will have a tough time with Clemson, but just remember, we are deadly when we have more than 3 days rest and prep time. We’ll give them a good fight.
Sounds like the majoriy has Clemson as the more feared, better, more dangerous team. Sounds like even Clemson does not think UM brings a lot to the table…hmmm. JB gets this team playing its best when we are the underdog, and have our backs against the wall. JB does a great job of preparing his teams to play loose, and with no pressure. Especially on the big stage. I cant wait. This should be a very interesting, fun game to watch. GO BLUE BABY!!
Great article Dylan, very well done. It looks like Clemson lives off of it’s press defense. The question is how well will we handle the press. With our current Michigan team, we seem to always have a puncher’s chance of winning, i.e., when we’re hot we can shoot the lights out and can play with anyone, but when we’re not, we struggle.
Comparing common opponents doesn’t always tell you what you need to know because of the intangibles. Duke was going through a slump, Savannah State was coming off of a high when they “almost beat Michigan” a power house team to them so they were ripe for Clemson. Their 67% shooting against Maryland will do just about any opponent in, and the Illini game reflected the Big Ten’s difficulty winning against the ACC in basketball over the last several years.
However, in my opinion, I believe if Michigan can play their game (when their playing well), get their “nerves” in check, then they have a solid chance of winning this game.
I like our chances. We are also going to dominate Blake “I’m so special” Griffen. Boom! DeShawned